Today in 2024, artificial iintelligence (AI) and machine learning are hot topics. Week by week, AI systems are becoming increasingly powerful. But can the casino game baccarat be beaten using artificial intelligence? 

Question Leading to Research: The Power of AI Playing Baccarat 

I decided to spend a few months conducting extensive research, to find out whether artificial intelligence (AI) can conquer random outcomes. Can AI select significantly more correct random outcomes than some of the best baccarat players in the world? 

Introduction to AI and Baccarat: Can Baccarat Be Beaten Using AI?

AI is reshaping the casino realm in real-time. You no longer need to rely on sheer luck or the practice of trial and error to bag wins. Although complex, AI models can extract a chunk of data and determine the probabilities of selecting correct outcomes.

Is it possible to find patterns, by looking at baccarat outcomes, to help guarantee a win for every baccarat shoe you bet on using AI?  This article explores advanced AI models that aims to change the way gambling works.

Baccarat Gameplay Rules

In baccarat strategy, the banker or Player are the hands on which you can decide to bet. The other possible outcome is a tie of the two hands. My AI systems research focused on Banker and Player outcomes and disregarded ties. 

A casino dealer draws two-to-three cards for both the Banker and Player hands. The winning hand will score 9 or as close to 9 as possible. If the sum of the cards is greater than 9, the last digit of the total becomes the score. 

The hand with the highest value wins – except if there’s a tie result. 

  • Scores range from 0 to 9.
  • Ace is worth 1 point. 
  • Ten and picture cards (J, Q, K) are each worth 0.
  • Cards 2 through 9 are worth their face value.
  • One or both hands will receive a third card depending on the drawing rules.

[For the complete history of baccarat, click here.]

Baccarat House Edge vs. Winning more Correct Decisions 

Before I get into the role of AI, we need to grasp how mind-bogglingly difficult it is to win betting on baccarat outcomes over the long-run. While the decision is a simple one – bet on Banker or Player – the game is structured to profit the casino house edge. 

The house edge on the Banker bet is 1.06% and 1.24% on Player. That house advantage means the odds are stacked against baccarat bettors in the long-run. 

But unbelievably, the truth is, the house edge isn’t the biggest obstacle standing in the way of a player’s ability to win on every baccarat shoe. In baccarat, all the money staked on wrong decisions, over the long-run, is the expected value the house edge profits from. 

Those simple decisions, whether to bet Banker or Player – coup after coup – is the inherent challenge, we as baccarat gamblers face. 

But if we can nail it, if we can get more decisions correct, (assuming the amount wagered remains the same for each decision), we can win regardless of the house edge. The house edge only takes advantage when we fail to win more outcomes than we lose.

Baccarat player & banker

The Math of Trying to Win Playing Baccarat 

It's a mathematical reality, that no betting system can consistently win over time. The randomness of baccarat outcomes causes uncertainty for players to make correct decisions. And any one pattern is difficult to follow because it can continue to evolve into many diverse types of patterns. 

It’s impossible to predict the outcomes of any one coup, due to the uncertainty fueled by the nature of randomness. You wouldn’t want to bet your house on it! 

I’ve watched punters walk up to baccarat tables, lay down huge sums on one outcome. What happened after that is mere hearsay. 

The Power and Abilities of AI Models Used on Casino Games  

Artificial intelligence works within computers to mimic the behavior of humans and systems, but with more accuracy and speed. Most experts in the field are confident that AI can play casino games better than most humans. The common consensus is that AI only needs data. 

But AI lacks the creative intellect humans have. While AI can keep up with the latest available information, (for what that information is worth) the basis of the information is limited to the data already known. 

Machine learning (ML) is one of the most important algorithms employed, which shall be covered later in this article. Various experts have conducted tests using AI systems on casino games including baccarat. Without referencing too much data, the results are good—but not perfect. 

The Math Fueling AI Baccarat Predictors

AI baccarat predictors are still in their infancy. Not all models are created equal. Finding the Right AI Model to beat baccarat is a process of elimination. The following are statistical techniques that can go into the decision making used to decide; Banker or Player:

  • Regression analysis: Identifying correlations between bet types and outcomes to predict future results.
  • Bayesian probability: Adjusting odds based on previous win/loss streaks and outcomes.
  • Regression to the mean: Anticipating extreme results will revert towards the average.

How good AI is to win more baccarat outcomes is determined by the person who develops the AI system. So, can an AI system win significantly more baccarat outcomes than the best human baccarat players?

The AI mathematical tools used are factors that’ll have a bearing on whether AI can beat baccarat. But such AI mathematical tools are far from perfect. 

Can Machine Learning Tools Beat Baccarat? 

Machine learning can evaluate millions of variables and techniques extremely quickly. ML algorithms could isolate the best baccarat prediction strategy.

My research took me deeper into the power of AI models, which can enhance the learning tools to beat baccarat, such as the following ones:

  • Deep learning neural networks: Attempting to mimic the human brain's decision-making processes at scale.
  • Evolutionary algorithms: "Survival of the fittest" approaches that iteratively improve and test new prediction strategies.
  • Hybrid techniques: Combining multiple AI disciplines to counteract their individual weaknesses.

Can Machine Learning Models Be the Key to Beating Baccarat?

As mentioned earlier, Machine learning (ML) is one of the most prominent algorithms used to power AI systems. To predict potential outcomes, a method known as ML regression is useful in this case. 

ML involves a subset of algorithms able to process large datasets fast. Whereas humans can only sort out a limited amount of data in a limited number of scenarios. 

ML regression depends on three major factors: variance, bias, and error. And these are the sources of errors in a predictive model. The possibilities are endless, but don’t get too excited since its not likely that a feasible Baccarat AI betting strategy has been developed just yet.

Do Experts Believe AI Systems Can Beat Casino Games Like Baccarat?

Experts say AI and ML will be invaluable predictive tools for game analysis, risk assessment, and strategic decision-making. However, some experts believe ML can’t combat the problem of the “randomness of outcomes.” 

One possibility is using the Monte Carlo and Las Vegas algorithms to help ML predict more correct outcomes by randomization techniques. 

Put to the Test, Can AI Systems Beat Baccarat? 

Most casino AI systems are industry secrets. However, the field of AI is also rapidly evolving, and the creation of new models is an active process.  To examine how AI systems operate, you must examine the few available ones in action. Researchers have conducted studies on beating the odds using ML. The research involved the following:

  1.  Data acquisition: Thousands of baccarat games were historically analyzed and fed into the models.
  2. AI training: The models are trained with different machine learning models. The underlying patterns are used to make predictions on future baccarat outcomes.
  3. Iteration: The results are repeated over time to improve the models.

In certain scenarios, with tight bet win/loss boundaries, it was found the models could reliably prevent serious losses through more conservative betting approaches.

This demonstrated the value of AI assistants making human-aware recommendations, versus attempting to replace human decision-making entirely. AI systems can’t beat baccarat because ML can only give hints to humans betting on baccarat. 

Though this is not to say that ML can’t predict more correct outcomes than humans. But it should be noted that AI can’t predict every outcome in a Baccarat shoe correctly. 

However, ML can stick to a strategy of selecting likely-correct-outcomes. In turn this could help baccarat bettors win in the long-run. Though at the time of writing, I’m not aware of a super AI predictor that can guarantee wins. But existing ones can be a potential solution for better decision-making.

Baccarat hand

Is AI Better Than Humans to Beat Baccarat? 

The house edge keeps casinos on top. We know this. But in terms of predicting more correct outcomes, AI systems have an edge over humans. 

The game of baccarat is likened to flipping a coin. The bettor has a 50/50 chance of selecting the correct outcome. In using a fair (unbiased) coin, there’s no sure way to predict outcomes. 

AI can analyse and model the mathematics of randomness much better than humans. The only advantage AI has over humans is its speed in analysing statistical models. Other than this, there’s no clear advantage.vAs it stands, the best AI system:

  • can’t alter the house edge
  • win every baccarat outcome or majority of outcomes in a shoe

So, AI is only slightly better at prediction than humans. AI and ML prediction software might tilt the odds in your favor, but they won’t guarantee to overcome the house edge, or guarantee to gain a profit on each baccarat shoe bet on. 

The Future of AI Baccarat Predictors

While today's AI baccarat tools exhibit potential, any fully developed AI baccarat predictor is far from being able to be correct enough to guarantee profits. 

The role of AI used in gaming is only just beginning. As models grow more sophisticated, the line between human and machine mastery will further develop; better, more powerful AI baccarat predictors. 

In the future, AI Copilots could inform human players what decisions to make: Banker or Player. And this could well include how much to stake. This would make for the ultimate competitive edge. 

And if AI can master the problem of randomness and correctly predict most outcomes, then most casino games, including baccarat, are at risk of becoming extinct. 

For now, though, in 2024, baccarat remains an enthralling game of chance where the house reigns supreme. Savvy baccarat bettors would be wise to treat any current AI predictor as a supplementary tool, not a silver bullet. 

However, the relentless march of progress ensures this landscape won't remain static forever.

Advantages of an AI system in Baccarat

  • Speed: AI can analyze vast amounts of data much faster than humans, creating a better chance for you to win.
  • Modeling abilities: Using the right data and algorithms, AI systems can be trained to simulate potential outcomes. 
  • Adaptability: This is a huge plus for AI systems, because of inherent randomness in the baccarat gameplay. Switching to different strategies in real-time is a game changer.

Disadvantages of AI Systems in Baccarat 

  • AI systems can’t overcome the house advantage.
  • Can’t guarantee wins on every outcome or majority of outcomes in baccarat shoes.
  • Casinos have measures in place to prevent users from gaining an upper hand. AI models could be considered cheating by land-based and online casinos leading to bans.
  • AI systems can be utilized by casinos to detect AI prediction software and countermeasures can be taken.

Conclusion: Can Baccarat Be Beaten Using Artificial Intelligence?

AI does have a place in the future in terms of how Baccarat is played. Advanced tools are being developed and the percentage of correct baccarat predictions should improve over time. 

However, AI systems are not a magical crystal ball, and they have their own fair share of flaws. They can’t guarantee a win on every baccarat outcome or to win the majority of outcomes bet on in a shoe. At best, AI systems can follow a defined strategy and help players to stack more winning chips. But the advantage; the casino’s house edge still stands. And, as I write, there’s no way around this. 

Future progress in AI systems may overcome this Achilles Heel, and cause to make the house edge, not to disappear, but to be ineffective. But that remains to be seen.

AI Strategies to Beat Baccarat: Questions and Answers

  1. What does an AI system do in Baccarat? AI systems help predict outcomes by employing machine learning and statistical models to compute the probabilities of the game.
  2. Can AI systems beat the house edge in Baccarat? No, while they are impressive in predicting some outcomes, they can’t win the majority of outcomes in a baccarat shoe. And can’t overcome the inbuilt casino’s house edge. 
  3. Are AI systems better than humans in playing Baccarat? AI systems are unmatched in the ability to process large datasets and compute the outcomes, thus they’re slightly better than the best baccarat players.
  4. How advanced are AI baccarat prediction systems? The AI models are very sophisticated and pretty accurate, but still have a long way to go. However, they still produce errors.
  5. What is machine learning, and can it help humans to beat Baccarat? Machine learning is a subset of AI that attempts different techniques, in the fastest way possible, to determine the best option. It's still not perfect and can’t guarantee to win most outcomes in baccarat shoes.

Stephen R. Tabone is an English Writer from Great Britain. He is a casino games professional pattern player and outcomes systemiser. He is the Author of Bestselling Baccarat books, ‘The Ultimate Silver Bullet Proof Baccarat Winning Strategy 2.1’ and ‘The Ultimate Golden Secret Baccarat Winning Strategy 3.0’.

In 2011, Mr. Tabone earned a Bachelor of Arts degree with Honours in Creative Writing and Philosophy from the University of Greenwich, London. And holds qualifications in Law and in Business.