A.P Heat

Getting Lucky at Blackjack

"If it is all that time, one hundred and fifty-seven coins spun ... consecutively have come down heads ... one hundred and fifty-seven consecutive times, and all you can do is play with your food."- From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead by Tom Stoppard

Beating the Baccarat Tie Bet

The baccarat Tie bet allows the player to wager that the result of the next hand of baccarat will be a tie between the Player and Banker hands. This wager is a standard part of the layout, like insurance in blackjack.  The desire to card count the main game of baccarat dates back to Dr.

A Few Historical References to Edge Sorting

As part of my duties as expert witness for Phil Ivey, I had to write an "expert report." This report was centered around answering three questions, one of which was, "Is edge sorting well-known to the casino industry?" In order to answer this, I scoured books, magazines, websites, newsletters, message boards, training manuals, card manufacturer sites and every other source I could find that men

Card Counting Blackjack Variants

Blackjack has earned its place as the most popular casino table game for two main reasons. First, the house edge is typically less than any other table game, making it very cheap for the recreational player. Second, its notoriety as a game that is beatable by card counting and other methods.

Card Counting, 101

When a player decides he wants to beat a casino fair and square, the first attempt is almost always ordinary blackjack card counting. There are many reasons for this obsessive misdirection, not least of which is the sheer bulk of movies, books and websites devoted to the topic.

Beating Baccarat

In this post I am going to examine the earnings that are possible in baccarat if the player is using computer-perfect play. I investigated card counting in detail in this post.

The Top Five Advantage Plays in 2014

In this post, I am going to offer my opinion on the top five opportunities APs will be seeking out in 2014. First, I offer a disclaimer. APs are continuously scouting, researching and innovating. They exploit one-time opportunities. They burn out games. They negotiate special circumstances.

An Introduction to Advanced Advantage Play

How can a player legally beat a casino? When this question is asked of the typical gambler-in-the-street, the answer is almost universally “card counting blackjack.” When asked about card counting, this gambler talks about how smart you have to be and mentions the MIT team, but has no idea of what is actually involved in being a card counter.

Baccarat Combinatorial Analysis the Easy Way

The intention of this post is to put the gaming mathematicians out of business. Not really. But I do want to tell you how you can easily figure out the house edge for baccarat, its variants and most of its side bets. You can do this without needing a computer program or fancy spread sheet analysis. All you need to know is one advanced Excel function, “sumifs”.

Baccarat Card Counting: Update #1

Baccarat card counting is a hopeless endeavor. That doesn't mean that I can't develop better card counting systems or run more accurate simulations than I have in the past. This post improves upon earlier results I first presented in December, 2011 (see this post).