Video poker pundits and experts alike are nearly unanimous in preaching that the five-credit maximum should always be bet. This is because the maximum bet alters the payout for a royal flush from 250-for-1 to over three times that amount – 800-for-1.

That works out to 4,000-for-5 rather than 1,250-for-5 if the same pay rate was followed. Is playing maximum credits always the best route? This article explores the topic.

If this article interests you, keep reading. Alternatively, explore other topics like how to win at slots, roulette numbers, and blackjack strategy.

Contents

1. The value of playing the five-credit maximum bet
2. Maximum credits may not be five
3. Playing maximum credits may not always be best
4. Summary

The value of playing the five-credit maximum bet

The maximum video poker bet of five credits usually changes the pay rate for a royal flush to 800-for-1 from 250-for-1. This can make a huge difference. On a dollar game in a casino, 250-for-1 means a five-credit royal flush pays $1,250. A nice win to be sure, but not a great win. A great win is $4,000 for a royal flush on a dollar game with a five credit bet.

Here are some statistics about the royal flush in various video poker casino games. Depending on pay tables, the “Occurs Every” and “Return %” will vary slightly. The statistics are also based on “expert” or “perfect” play, meaning the strategy that focuses on getting the highest average return from each dealt hand.

As the table clearly shows, royal flushes rarely occur, but they contribute a hefty amount (close to 1/50th) to the overall return when they pay 800-for-1 (4,000-for-5). However, when the pay rate is 250-for-1, the percentage of overall return is cut to only about one-half of one percent. This is substantial reduction.

On most video poker games, the royal flush occurs roughly once in every 40,000 to 50,000 hands. This means that during the 40,000 to 50,000 hands where a royal flush does not appear, the five credits per hand player performs at about 2% below the overall return of the game. If the overall return of a game is 99%, the return during the “no royal” phase will average about 97%.

This is not an insignificant amount. It is also why experts say to always bet five credits when playing video poker – the royal flush wipes out the two percent deficit.

Maximum credits may not be five

The number of credits that trigger the “royal flush bonus,” especially on low-denomination games or at casinos that are not in major gaming destinations may not be five.

It could require 10, 20, or possibly more. Some of these games will show the 4,000 credits in the pay table, but it will take 10 credits to get those 4,000 credits. This makes the actual rate of pay for these games 400-for-1 not 800-for-1. Beware of this slightly deceptive practice.

Playing maximum credits may not always be best

Let’s see how the 800-for-1 differs from the 250-for-1 performance in two very important benchmarks – return and variance. Return is the amount of money played through the game that is returned to the player.

Variance is an indication of how severely bankrolls vary or fluctuate. Low variance games have fewer high-paying winners but also have less severe losing streaks.

Please note that the numbers in following table are for specific pay tables which could be different than those in your favorite casino. The differences they show between the two royal flush pays is indicative, however.

First a general statement: it is always better to play the five-credit maximum – if you can afford it. If you cannot afford to play $5 per hand on a dollar machine, but can afford to play $1.25 on a quarter machine, play the quarter machine. You get the maximum possible return form your investment.

Playing lower denomination games could mean playing with an inferior return. As an example, you may be able to find a full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better game at a dollar but the quarter jacks or better game pays only 8/5. The return from the 8/5 quarter game with five credits ($1.25) is 97.29% with a variance of 19.32.

The return from the 9/6 game playing one credit ($1) is 98.37 with a variance of 4.92. Playing a one credit dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better game returns about one percent more than the five-credit quarter game. As a bonus, the variance is extremely low. From an overall play standpoint, the one-credit dollar game is the way to go.

One downside is learning the slightly different strategy for playing the 8/5 game. Another is a royal flush on the dollar game only gets you 1,250 credits. But wait. That is $1,250! A royal flush on a five-credit quarter game pays only $1,000. Sounds like a win to me.

Summary

Experts universally state that video poker should always be played with five credits to get the “royal flush bonus” of 800-for-1 instead of 250-for-1 when betting fewer than five credits.

Under certain conditions, there are valid reasons to ignore this advice – and come out ahead in the long run. Nothing, apparently, is absolute – other than casinos having the edge.

Professional gambling might seem like an easy-money occupation. But that is a bit illusory. In fact, becoming a professional gambler is more like a hard way to make an easy living.

Even when you do have an edge – and finding that edge is integral to gambling for a living – you’re still dealing with downswings, people who wish you weren’t in action, and the need to remain extremely disciplined while under intense pressure.

All that said, if it works for you, and if you can squeeze a profit out of odds that are meticulously designed to be tilted against you, it is a great way to make a living.

And there is the question: How to become a professional gambler? This article will try to answer that.

I had a taste of it while playing on a big-time card counting team and, years later, participating in an advantage play with no less a light than the great James Grosjean, widely considered to be the GOAT of casino advantage players.

That said, I did not do it for a living, though the play with Grosjean and my time as a card counter both made for interesting side hustles – mentally challenging, emotionally uplifting, and financially remunerative (until, of course, in the case of card counting, it wasn’t).

But, even after the team busted up and the Grosjean stint ended, I walked away with extra money and risk/reward lessons that frequently come in handy for everyday life.

Find Your Game

But let’s start with a bit of wisdom imparted to me by highly regarded professional gambler Richard Munchkin when I spoke with him for my book Advantage Players: Inside the Winning World of Casino Virtuosos, Master Strategists, and Mathematical Wizards: 

“No game is unbeatable. I think every game can be beaten by someone, at some time, under the right conditions.”

That is an uplifting statement from a professional gambler who would know. Finding the game you can beat is a good place to start. Poker, sports betting, and casino games all offer edges for intrepid players.

And they all have distinct characteristics. Poker is great for people who like competing against other players. When attacking casino games, you take on the house, which hates to lose. These days, betting on sports (including horse racing) usually involves a computer model.

Top bettors use technology to find overlays and to calculate parlays where advantages can be found. For starters, find the game that suits your temperament and put aside a bankroll for trying to take it on.

Get Good!

Nobody is born being able to consistently beat a game. Everyone has to work at it. Whether we’re talking about sports betting expert Billy Walters, horse racing winner Don Johnson, poker pro Phil Ivey, or casino killer James Grosjean – all of whom are at the tops of their games. They all worked hard to get to where they are.

Those striving to make it at poker will do well to read all they can about the game (and to figure out a variation to focus on: hold’em, Omaha, limit or no limit, cash or tournament, and many other forms). Start small on sites like 888poker, and learn what works. Slowly you get good, move up in stakes, and capitalize on proficiency.

If casino games seem right for you, card counting at blackjack tends to be a fitting entry point. The website Blackjack Apprenticeship is a good place to learn blackjack strategy from before hitting the tables.

Sports and horse racing may click for you. In that case, check out Bet Bash, which is a Las Vegas-based gathering of field and turf specialists. You’ll likely leave the event with fresh knowledge – and maybe even a betting team to join.

When you have skills and a plan, it will be time to put yourself to the test.

Prepare for the Ups and Downs – and Don’t Get Discouraged

If making a living as a professional gambler was easy, everyone would do it. While there is plenty of money to be made through gambling, the volatility can be stomach churning.

Consider that if you are a sports bettor and earn a 57% profit, you are extremely successful. But you also weather losses in the 43% range. Losing at that rate is a lot to take – and to blow cash when you made the right decision requires belief in yourself and in the system that your wagering is based on.

Card counters play with razor thin advantages. Despite that, wins can be rewardingly large, but the negative swings can be brutal.

Because counters make their largest wagers under the best circumstances – when the count is high – the reality is that casino dealers receive the same cards and are entitled to get lucky even when they are underdogs. When that happens, card counters get completely crushed even as they are in the best spots.

I’ll never forget the night I had at The Palms in Las Vegas when the count went through the roof and I pushed out max bets, hand after hand, only to get my head handed to me.

It was ugly and I walked away from the table with nothing to show for my efforts except for a pair of busted $10,000 cash wraps.

I called my team’s banker to let him know what happened. All he could say was, “Come by for more money and dig yourself out.”

He was right. Getting discouraged over bad variance would have been a giant mistake. Instead, I took his advice and dug myself out. I try to keep his words in my head when things go wrong at the gaming tables and beyond.

Wade in Before Taking the Plunge

Once you feel ready to play, go slow and don’t give up your day job (at least not just yet).

Advantage Play gambling – that is, gambling with an advantage as a means of making money from it – can be a perfect side hustle. My advice here would be to put together a bankroll, strictly for gambling, figure out the stakes you can play at (with enough cash to weather bad luck and nasty turns), and then go at it. Pursue being a professional gambler as if it is a part-time job or a profitable hobby, keep close track of wins and losses, and hope to get lucky early on.

The software engineer turned professional gambler (via poker) Barry Greenstein once told me that a little luck at the beginning of a gambling career can be the booster shot that gets it going. And if you don’t get lucky right away, keep grinding with the confidence that things will turn in your favor if you keep doing things right.

At the very least, you’ll make money doing something you enjoy and have better stories than anyone else at your day job.

At best, the pieces will fall into place, you’ll develop some advantage play techniques that others in your field have not come up with, and feel comfortable taking the plunge, playing games for your profession, and living the dream of being a professional gambler.

If this article interests you, explore other topics like roulette strategy and roulette wheel numbers.

Chasing the money ghost through paper trails, pools, and probability

I wrote this in August 2025 after a long walk to the British Library. Union Jacks and St. George’s Cross flags dressed the lampposts. Sun flashed between showers. I wanted facts about Zeljko Ranogajec. Who was he, where did he operate, what did he do, and was it true?

With a name like Zeljko Ranogajec, I half-expected a Bond villain in the shadows — or an Eastern European mafia boss. What I uncovered was a master of probabilities. A man who found an edge inside the hidden grid of an odds matrix. Ranogajec took the red pill and, somehow, held the keys to the safe.

In the Newsroom, the British Newspaper Archive glowed and microfilm readers hummed. I sifted racing pages, court digests, and company registers. The legend shouted. The trail whispered. Piece by piece, it started to make sense.

Who Was Zeljko Ranogajec, Really

Ranogajec was born in Hobart, Tasmania, in 1961 to Croatian parents. He studied finance and tax law, then chose the casino floor. At Wrest Point they banned him for counting cards. The pivot turned a gifted counter into a builder of systems.

From blackjack’s glare, he stepped into pooled markets. Less theater, more volume. The work became repeatable processes that could run all day without fanfare.

Inside Zeljko’s Secret World of Edge Gamblers

In the world I study — and sometimes inhabit — an edge lives longer in silence. You keep a low profile because attention raises costs and closes doors.

I’m not talking about counters dodging back-offs in wigs. Blackjack pros often target a double in a year. The very best sometimes treble it. That’s craft, but it hits a ceiling fast.

Zeljko aimed beyond the ceiling. He built edges that scaled through pools, rebates, and logistics. The goal wasn’t a yearly flip. It was compounding quietly into hundreds of millions.

If this article interests you, keep reading. Alternatively, explore other topics like blackjack side bets and roulette odds.

What Ranogajec Bet — and Where He Operated

Ranogajec went where liquidity lived: racing totes, swollen Keno jackpots, and later lotteries and pooled products. Australia was the launchpad. London became the hub.

The table wasn’t the point. The action lived in models, phone calls, and tickets punched all day. Zeljko placed many small, smart wagers, relentlessly. Price, not drama, set the compass.

The Network That Shaped Zeljko Ranogajec’s Play

In Sydney, Zeljko linked with Alan Woods and David Walsh. Probability over superstition. That circle bridged blackjack to modelling and fresh ways to attack pools. As surveillance tightened, bans multiplied. Faces gave way to prices. Numbers carried the load.

Trips to Las Vegas confirmed it. With every visit the countermeasures grew. The next chapter was logistics — rows and columns, not press rooms.

Zeljko’s Personal Life and the Quiet Surface

Public details are sparse by choice. Zeljko Ranogajec married Shelley Wilson, whom he met in his casino years. Their daughter, Emily, appears in rare photos. In those images he’s in a cap and dark jacket — the kind of man you lose in a crowd.

Insiders called his temperament clockmaker-calm — steady when odds swung. Results first. Applause, never.

John Wilson, Shells, and Why Ranogajec Vanished on Paper

To lower the temperature, Zeljko sometimes operated as John Wilson, appearing under his wife’s surname in select documents. Behind the name sat shell companies and nominee structures. They routed bets, hid who was who, and kept fingerprints faint. Not mystique. Maintenance.

One, Hyde Park: Ranogajec’s Privacy and Price

Many reports place Ranogajec at One Hyde Park, 100 Knightsbridge. Glass, hush, and doormen who know when not to see you. The development faces Hyde Park and links to the Mandarin Oriental. At the time of writing, one-beds guide around £6–7 million, strong three-beds £18–30 million, and trophy penthouses far higher. The signal: privacy is policy.

Keno as Proof of Concept for Zeljko

Back in Australia, Zeljko treated Keno like a balance sheet. He waited for jackpots to swell and targeted combinations the public ignored. Then he bought tickets at industrial scale through pubs and RSLs. Months of staking produced multiple jackpots. From the street it looked like luck; up close it was work.

How the Edge Was Built — and Why It Points to Ranogajec

When his name turns up, the pattern repeats. First, modelling — price outcomes faster and cleaner than instinct. If the price was wrong, take the shot. If it was right, pass.

Then, volume. Small edges need size to matter. Turnover rinsed variance across thousands of wagers. One result meant little; the portfolio told the truth.

Finally, rebates — usually high single digits, roughly 8-10%, sometimes more in the U.S. That second price turned break-even into profit and scaled with turnover. If you’re chasing Zeljko Ranogajec net worth, start there: price, volume, and the rebate.

Evidence Zeljko Ranogajec Bet Big

Courtroom accounts have cited staggering turnover through racing pools and related products. In one case, a judge heard “about a billion” a year as a working estimate, with the rebate logic explained plainly. If the turnover is there and the rebate is right, the bank balance smiles.

His existence isn’t folklore. It’s verified through Blackjack Hall of Fame records, court testimony, rebate audits, and property holdings. His betting left fingerprints you can measure — rebates rewritten, pools rebalanced, house rules changed. The ghost was real. The impact was measurable.

Nicknames and the Public Shadow Around Ranogajec

In Britain, Zeljko has been called the Loch Ness Monster of Gambling — rarely seen, widely felt. In racing circles, The Joker often follows. Two names, one theme: visible impact, invisible man. He made the Blackjack Hall of Fame in 2011 for his brilliant understanding of the game and blackjack strategy.

Zeljko Ranogajec Net Worth Explained

Everyone ends up here. Zeljko Ranogajec net worth. The internet wants a trophy number. Ranogajec built a life that resists one. A single figure rarely survives a year because his wealth works like a sum.

Think of Ranogajec’s net worth as liquidity in motion — edge × turnover × rebates × time. Change one input and the sum shifts. Pinning it down is like taking a thermometer to the wind. Whatever the number, it was built by repeatability, not spectacle.

Put plainly, Zeljko Ranogajec net worth rose from process, not luck, and shifts with pools, liquidity, turnover, and rebates over time.

What Bookmakers Learned from Zeljko Ranogajec

What changed in the rooms that priced the action? Staff accounts describe the same pattern: quiet races spike, late money lands where odds are soft, and end-of-month rebates turn “break-even” into profit. No celebrity whale. Just footprints. That’s Ranogajec’s signature — timing, volume, and the second price doing the heavy lifting.

How did bookmakers respond? They reclassified rebates as price, not perks; rewrote discount tables; tightened or shifted cut-off times; and ring-fenced vulnerable pools. The principle that stuck is simple: liquidity feels safe until a system swims through it, and predictability beats genius — the edge you can repeat on Tuesday, then Thursday, then next week is the one that wins.

How to Bet Better, the Zeljko Betting Code

Walking back from the Library, rain lifting off the pavement, I made three notes to self:

1) Keep the edge small and clear.
One sentence, no hedging. Specialize until a market feels like a dialect you can hear. If it needs a paragraph, it’s fog.

2) Size like a professional.
Stake to bankroll, variance, and model confidence — not bravado. Log results so sizing learns from truth, not memory.

3) Count the hidden layer.
Points, cashbacks, and especially rebates belong in expected value. Stay boring so compounding can work. That’s how “break-even” becomes profit.

Where Ranogajec Lived — and When

Zeljko Ranogajec grew up in Hobart and, in adulthood, chose prices over publicity. London became his hub for privacy and reach. The years map cleanly: blackjack and bans in the 1980s; Keno and race pools in the 1990s; industrial-scale totes and pooled products through the 2000s and 2010s. He turned sixty-four in 2025.

Under London’s Sky with Zeljko Ranogajec

I left the library and the streets were in a cycle of sun and rain. As I walked, the phantom of Zeljko Ranogajec felt real, keeping pace beside me. At the Tube entrance, the ghost slipped away like steam rising off wet pavement.

Down in the tiled tunnels, the smell shifted to hot dust and metal — London’s Underground perfume — rubber under my palm on the escalator, then cool brass on the steps. Somewhere ahead, in my head, a money counter kept time. The rollers flicked through wads of Ranogajec dollars like the count room in Scorsese’s Casino — steady, relentless, impersonal.

I had a draft to finish, but Ranogajec lingered. My thoughts narrowed to three rules I needed to master: keep my edge boring, keep my bankroll patient, and keep my best work quiet long enough for it to matter.

The casino made the legend — the pools made the balance. That’s where Zeljko Ranogajec net worth was minted.

Contents

1. What Is MONA?
2. Who Is David Walsh?
3. September 2025: What I Actually Saw
4. David Walsh’s Early Years and First Advantage
5. From Tables to Tote Boards
6. One Play, Demystified
7. What David Walsh Thinks About Casino Games
8. Why David Walsh Didn’t Build the Casino
9. How the Art Arrived — Bought, Commissioned, Risked
10. “Snake,” and Why MONA Happened
11. What MONA Generates
12. David Walsh: Home, Travel, and Style
13. How David Walsh Works — and What He Writes
14. Marriage, Friends, and Time
15. David Walsh net worth — What We Can Actually Say
16. Not David Austin Walsh
17. From Balance Sheet to Legacy
18. Legacy, Mortality, and the Work Ahead
19. What We Can Learn from David Walsh

David Walsh and MONA: The Art Museum a Gambler Built:

Blackjack, betting syndicates, and a museum that rewired Hobart

I went to MONA the first weekend of September 2025 with a simple test: walk his building, read his playbook.
The ferry skimmed the Derwent; sandstone swallowed the light. I climbed the 99 steps from the dock, past a mirrored wall that throws your face back before you enter. Checkpoint: ego, expectation, then descent.

What is MONA?

MONA — the Museum of Old and New Art — is an art museum on Hobart’s Berriedale peninsula. It houses David Walsh’s private collection of contemporary works and antiquities and operates as a museum with permanent collections, not a commercial gallery.

Often called the largest privately-funded museum in the Southern Hemisphere, it tunnels into rock, runs winter festivals, and prefers hard questions to easy applause.

Who is David Walsh?

David Walsh is the Tasmanian gambler-collector who founded MONA. He made money through disciplined wagering — first at blackjack, then in racing and pool markets — and converted those gains into art, architecture, and festivals. He’s equal parts number-maker and provocateur, more interested in questions than conclusions.

September 2025: what I actually saw

No wall texts. Just the O-device, tracking your position and feeding commentary — like a syndicate terminal, but for art. You spiral downward, not upward. The museum excavates rather than elevates; each level feels like a deeper layer of Walsh’s ledger.

Julius Popp’s “bit.fall” spelled live words in water; “Cloaca” drew a crowd at feeding time. Concrete held a cool, mineral air. The place felt quarried, as if a mind had been excavated and left running.

MONA doesn’t perch; it’s quarried into rock. Galleries step down like a ledger, each level a recalibration. Think Batman — less cave, more control room. David Walsh fights distortion, not villains. He prices uncertainty, then returns to adjust the archive. The place mirrors him: precise, unsentimental, iterative. Not a retreat. A machine for thinking.

David Walsh’s early years and first advantage

Hobart, working-class Catholic, a brief flirtation with math and computing — then casinos, which proved the better lab. Walsh learned blackjack strategy at Wrest Point: card counting (Hi-Lo), entering only when the shoe turned favorable, spreading stakes without heat.

The gambler didn’t always work alone. Teams used spotters, back-counters, and a big player to smooth swings and hide the count. He’s never published standard units; stakes scaled with advantage and bankroll. The habit — measure, adjust, repeat — became the operating system.

From tables to tote boards

He ported table habits to racing pools: make your own number; decide pass, nibble, or step-up thresholds in advance.

Place early bets where pools react slowly; let rebates and settlement rules compound thin margins. After every session, check the close against your “fair.” If they disagree, find the leak.

One play, demystified

Four minutes to post, the pool looks wrong; buy the cheap tickets where few are watching. Two minutes out, add in the least reactive places.

At the jump, heavier orders land; the pool moves toward your number, and a margin remains. If the close matches your fair, execution worked. If not, the model missed — or information leaked. Tighten it before tomorrow.

What David Walsh thinks about casino games

• Poker: Skill plus variance. If you’re not the best at the table, don’t sit.
• Blackjack: Beat the shoe or walk. Negative EV deserves no romance.
• Poker machines: His red line — devices tuned for compulsion and proximity, often where money is tight.
• Bottom line: he distinguishes informed risk from engineered behavior.

Why David Walsh didn’t build the casino

Around 2014–15 he sketched a tiny, poker-machine-free high-roller room at MONA, nicknamed “Monaco”: invitation-only tables, integrated on site.

Policy drifted back toward poker-machine dependence, so Walsh walked. A residents-excluded license surfaced later; his conditions weren’t met. By 2025, Monaco remained an idea. For Walsh, principle is a setting in the model— if inputs force pokies, the plan is wrong.

If this article interests you, keep reading. Alternatively, explore other topics like blackjack strategy, blackjack side bets, and roulette odds.

How the art arrived — bought, commissioned, risked

Most of MONA’s collection was bought or commissioned by David Walsh and his entities. He favors commissions with uncertainty — projects that unfold over time, like wagers with long fuses.

Loans come and go, and public money helped with paths and services, but the wall power is largely private risk.

“Snake,” and why MONA happened

“Snake” is Sidney Nolan’s mural of 1,620 painted panels — about 45 meters of color and myth. It reads as pattern, memory, country, person—and drove architectural choices; corridors and pacing bend around it.

Walsh has said he made his money without making a mark; MONA was the mark. He built a lab for looking —evolution, belief, mortality, desire—tested with the same cool discipline he used at the tables.

What MONA generates

MONA is costly to run and, at times, relies on Walsh’s subsidy. The wider impact is larger: winter festivals that fill flights, longer stays, and hospitality weeks that move the city’s ledger.

Depending on program and season, public estimates put annual visitor spending tied to MONA and its festivals in the many tens of millions. It behaves less like a profit center and more like cultural infrastructure that attracts cash flow to the region.

David Walsh: home, travel, and style

Home base is the MONA/Moorilla hillside above the Derwent — concrete, glass, stone, rooms that function like studios.

Travel follows projects: Europe for artists and fairs, the United States for partnerships, Asia when a commission warrants it.

His look has quieted — longer hair and tweed in the 2010s; now pared-back jackets, work-day shoes, practical transport. Useful, unshowy, built for getting things done.

How David Walsh works — and what he writes

Day to day, he drafts and edits museum essays, wall texts, commissioning briefs, exhibition plans, and budgets—tight prose, tighter numbers.

Subjects range from evolution and perception to gambling ethics and Tasmanian politics. He auditions ideas with curators, then prunes when inputs say prune.

“We are machines designed to deceive ourselves. That’s how we survive.”

Marriage, friends, and time

David Walsh is married to artist-curator Kirsha Kaechele. He keeps home life mostly out of view.
The circles are artists and collaborators—and, early in the gambling story, association with Zeljko Ranogajec at tote-board scale.

David Walsh net worth — what we can actually say

David Walsh net worth is best read as a range. A sensible band sits in the low hundreds of millions, moving with private valuations of art and property and any residual wagering income.

Most of it originated from syndicate profits rolled into assets: MONA and its collection, Moorilla, hospitality, real estate. If he still gambles, it’s selective — data-led pools and markets, never slot machines.

That mix is why David Walsh net worth stories shift with seasons and programs.

Not David Austin Walsh

Search often confuses the MONA founder with David Austin Walsh, a U.S. historian. Different careers, different fields.

From balance sheet to legacy

Money, for Walsh, isn’t a finish line; it’s voltage for experiments. Buildings, programs, and risks convert capital into something you can walk through.

Legacy, mortality, and the work ahead

“The museum wasn’t planned. It emerged.” That explains the feel of the place: an experiment still running.

“Death isn’t something to be sneezed at. It’s a reward for having had the good fortune to be born.”

He isn’t being morbid; he’s measuring. What survives? What scales? What matters enough to keep?

What we can learn from David Walsh

I left as a southerly pushed up the Derwent — steel water, low cloud, a ribbon of light on kunanyi/Mount Wellington. On the ferry back, MONA sank into the rock behind me.

David Walsh isn’t a list of rules; he’s a temperament — restless, skeptical, oddly tender about wonder. He gambled to learn what counts, then built a place to keep testing the answer.

Drifting across the river, I felt it: a mind measuring itself in public, willing to be wrong, generous enough to share the mess and the beauty. What endures isn’t a system so much as his stubborn curiosity — and the museum it keeps alive.

In standard (non-wild card) video poker games, the proper hold for many of the dealt hands is reasonably evident. In most cases any paying hand of a high pair or better is the proper hold.

Also, four cards of a royal flush or four cards of a straight flush are easy to spot as proper holds. Three cards of a royal flush, four cards of a flush, a low pair, and four cards of an open straight are also easy to spot.

Two high cards (A, K, Q, J) of a royal flush or three cards of a straight flush fall in line next. But what about a suited Jack-10? These two cards could produce a royal flush, or a straight flush, four of a kind, full house, as well as any other paying hand in the pay table.

This article explores the possibilities. The games are jacks or better-based such as Jacks or Better, Double Bonus Poker, etc., not wild card games. To achieve the best return in wild card casino games the logic for deciding the proper hold must be dramatically altered so it is not included in this article.

Contents

1. Suited jack/10 with junk
2. Suited jack/10 with another unsuited high card
3. Suited jack/10 with other helpful cards
4. Summary

Suited jack/10 with junk

The first example looks at what happens to the possibilities with a hand containing a suited Jack-10 with three other worthless cards – no other high cards, no other suited cards, no other cards that might help a straight. The hand looks something like this:

Jh Th 2d 5c 7s

It is true that the 7 of spades could make a straight with the Jack-10, but there are two gaps. This is probably not a viable hold. Here is the proof. In a full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better game, on average:

• Holding the Jh Th 7s returns 1.2812 credits for 5 credits played.
• Holding the Jh Th returns 2.5569.

There are, in fact nine holds that are better than the Jh Th 7h. They are:

• Jh – 2.3621 credits
• Jh 7s – 1.7342 credits
• Redraw – 1.7019 credits
• Jh 2d or Jh 5c – 1.6750 credits
• Holding any single low card – is also better than holding the Jh Th 7s

Conclusion: Holding the Jack-10 allows for any paying hand on the pay table to appear. By adding the 7 to the hold, the only possible winning hands are: straight, three of a kind, two pairs, or a high pair. The lack of possible winning hands – especially the royal flush – when adding the 7 to the hold, obliterates the return.

If this article interests you, keep reading. Alternatively, explore other topics like how to win at slots, roulette wheel, and blackjack side bets.

Suited Jack-10 with another unsuited high card

If the dealt hand also includes another unsuited high card (another suited high card would make three cards of a royal flush), the proper hold could very well change. We will look at three different hands containing a suited Jack-10 and an unsuited high card.

First hand: Jh Th 2d 5c As. The top five holds are:

• Jh Th – 2.5236 credits
• Jh As – 2.3716 credits
• As – 2.3067 credits
• Jh – 2.3041 credits
• Jh Th As – 1.7808 credits

Second hand: Jh Th 2d 5c Ks. The top five holds are:

• Jh Th – 2.5039 credits
• Jh Ks – 2.4308 credits
• Ks – 2.3067 credits
• Jh – 2.2987 credits
• Jh Th Ks – 2.0768 credits

Third hand: Jh Th 2d 5c Qs. The top three holds are:

• Jh Qs – 2.4900 credits
• Jh Th – 2.4841 credits
• Jh Th Qs – 2.3728 credits

In the first two hands, holding the suited Jack-10 is the proper hold. Things change in the third hand. The counts of winning hands are shown below:

It may seem a bit counter-intuitive, but the nearly double the appearance of Jacks or Better winners for the Jack-Queen hold, more than offsets the extra royal flush, straight flush, flush, and straight winning hands for the Jack-10 hold.

Suited Jack-10 with other helpful cards

Other helpful cards for the suited Jack-10 include additional card or cards that would help produce a straight or flush without being a high card, and without making four cards of a flush or four cards of an open straight.

First hand: Jh Th 2d 5c 3h. This hand has three cards of a flush. The top three holds are:

• Jh Th – 2.4934 credits
• Jh – 2.3473 credits
• Jh Th 3h – 2.2340 credits

Second hand: Jh Th 2d 5c 9s. This hand has three cards of an inside straight. The top three holds are:

• Jh Th – 2.5174 credits
• Jh – 2.3513 credits
• Jh Th 9s – 1.8733 credits

Third hand: Jh Th 2d 7c 9s. This hand has four cards of an inside straight. The top three holds are:

• Jh Th – 2.5026 credits
• Jh – 2.3473 credits
• Jh Th 7c 9s – 2.0213 credits

Notice that in all cases, the Jack-10 is the proper hold and the lone jack is the next best hold. When playing video poker at a casino, holding the additional one or two cards eliminates the possibility of higher-paying winning hands. Holding additional cards reduces the number of possible hands. See the table below.

Notice the reduction in paying hands for the last column. When these additional held cards hurt the prospects of achieving high-paying winners, they lose their power and therefore their appeal.  

Summary

Choosing the proper hold for many – even most – dealt hands can be intuitive. Certain hands, even though they may have the possibility of producing top-paying winning hands, can also require some complex thinking and have non-intuitive holds.

Contents

1. Dan Bilzerian: Poker Persona, Borrowed Spectacle, and the Cost of Looking Rich
2. What happened to Dan Bilzerian, how the money really moved, and a sober look at Dan 
   Bilzerian net worth?
3. What Happened to Dan Bilzerian Today?
4. Who Is Dan Bilzerian?
5. Family Background and Early Money
6. Trust Fund, Instagram, Spectacle: The Anatomy of Dan Bilzerian’s Rise
7. Dan Bilzerian’s Rise and Instagram Empire
8. Poker Record: What’s Verified
9. The All-In Illusion: When Persona Outpaces Proof
10. How Much Dan Bilzerian Earned From Poker?
11. How Private Cash Games Actually Work?
12. Dan Bilzerian Net Worth: Fact vs Fiction
13. The Monetization of Spectacle: How 30 Million Followers Pay
14. Inside the Illusion Economy
    Dan Bilzerian Personal Life: Homes, Cars, Style, Relationships
15. What Dan Bilzerian Thinks About Gambling and Casino Games
16. Dan Bilzerian Fact vs Fiction
17. Collapse Timeline
18. Practical Casino Lessons
19. Final Verdict on Dan Bilzerian — What Happened and Net Worth
20. Quick FAQ

Dan Bilzerian: Poker Persona, Borrowed Spectacle, and the Cost of Looking Rich

What happened to Dan Bilzerian, how the money really moved, and a sober look at Dan Bilzerian net worth

I’m writing this because the record on Dan Bilzerian is loud and slippery. My aim is clear: explain what happened to Dan Bilzerian, frame Dan Bilzerian's net worth realistically, and give casino readers something useful. I’ve watched the feeds, read filings, and listened to long interviews. Some claims stand. Others collapse under light. Here’s the clean version.

What Happened to Dan Bilzerian Today?

Quick answer: he scaled back when the cost of spectacle outpaced its returns. Posts slowed, launches narrowed, and the engine throttled down.

From 2013 to the late 2010s, Bilzerian surfed spectacle – jets, mansions, models, ranges, and late-night bragging. Then the burn began to outrun receipts. The drift wasn’t a crash; it was a lower gear. Attention still converts, just not at the old, breathless rate.

Who Is Dan Bilzerian?

Bilzerian was born in Tampa in 1980 to Paul Bilzerian and Terri Steffen. He attempted Navy SEAL training, didn’t finish selection, and later studied at the University of Florida. He found his lane in card rooms where psychology meets probability. The early method was simple: choose seats well, size to conditions, and pass when the price is wrong.

If this article interests you, keep reading. Alternatively, explore other topics like blackjack strategy and craps strategy.

Family Background and Early Money

The runway wasn’t only poker. Family trusts and related structures sat in the background. That doesn’t erase risk-taking, but it changes the origin story. It also explains how houses, sets, and toys appeared on cue while capital stayed liquid. I read it as staged access, built for social optics rather than permanent ownership.

Trust Fund, Instagram, Spectacle: The Anatomy of Dan Bilzerian’s Rise

Dan Bilzerian built a persona where trust-fund optics met Instagram theater. With more than 30 million followers, he staged yachts, models, guns, and poker chips for virality. The feed ran on controversy and cadence. Lacking a deep public poker résumé, he monetized attention instead. The persona sold the story; the audience made it cashable.

Dan Bilzerian’s Rise and Instagram Empire

Film cameos and stunt-adjacent roles amplified the brand more than the bankroll. Mansion shoots did the work of giant ad buys and kept the loop spinning. His memoir, The Setup, packaged process as swagger. I read it as production notes for holding a room. In gambling culture, that playbook is familiar: social reach can rent almost anything for a day.

Poker Record: What’s Verified

One line matters on paper. Bilzerian finished 180th in the 2009 World Series of Poker  Main Event for $36,626. No bracelets. No other open-field scores that move the needle. Judge by public ledgers and he barely registers. That’s the distance between proof and narrative. The rest lives in private rooms where proof is scarce.

The All-In Illusion: When Persona Outpaces Proof

I expected a casino playboy riding adrenaline. I found a performance brand that mastered optics. The livestreams and photos exist. The televised wins do not. Without published graphs or audits, the legend rests on anecdotes. In that economy, repetition can feel like evidence. My job is sorting what’s checkable from what’s merely believed.

How Much Dan Bilzerian Earned From Poker

Snippable: public tournament earnings total $36,626; claimed private-game profits are unverified.
The private universe is different. He has spoken of eight-figure nights and even a $50 million year. Invite-only games leave no box scores.

People who know those rooms confirm extreme stakes and friendly lineups. They split on whether he was hammer or nail, which leaves the ledger unresolved.

How Private Cash Games Actually Work

Here’s the spine, as veterans describe it and behavior suggests. The edge starts with the room, not the hand. A table of deep stacks and distracted money beats any clever line. Position and lineup drive decisions; bravado only raises variance. When the mix tightens, the smartest move is often the door.

Price discipline does the rest. Press when conditions align; knit through bad texture. If rules or promos can’t bend the math, pits are décor, not income. Access becomes the asset: invitations, information, and the restraint not to torch a seat for attention. Each night ends the same way — reconcile outcomes against your read and fix leaks fast.

Dan Bilzerian Net Worth: Fact vs Fiction

Snippable: treat Dan Bilzerian net worth as a moving range — tens of millions — driven by deals, attention, and private finances; no audited figure exists.

Searches for Dan Bilzerian net worth swing widely. The visible ledger includes a Las Vegas “adult playground” home, later listed, and a rotating garage of exotics and ultra-luxury SUVs. The invisible ledger covers whatever was truly won or lost in private games, venture gains and burns, and any effects of family trusts. His financial reality is range, not sticker.

The Monetization of Spectacle: How 30 Million Followers Pay

Scale sells. Over 30 million Instagram followers buys reach most brands can’t purchase outright. Sponsored posts, licensing, affiliate deals, and appearance fees still convert after headlines cool.

Reputation bruises matter less in fringe markets that prize exposure. I’ve seen this across gambling and nightlife. The feed moves product. Volume keeps doors open when narratives wobble.

Inside the Illusion Economy

Access beats ownership. Luxury homes, cars, and jets can be leased, loaned, or comped while the image lands. Social platforms turn posts into inventory, then inventory into invitations and near-term deals.

When sentiment cools, backers walk faster than followers. When engagement slows, performance stops paying the bills. That, more than scandal, explains what happened to Dan Bilzerian as a business.

Dan Bilzerian Personal Life: Homes, Cars, Style, Relationships

Las Vegas was the stage for years. By 2025 he splits time between the United States and longer stretches abroad, often in the Gulf and Southeast Asia. Listing the Vegas compound signaled that chapter’s end. Cars churn by design — exotics, ultra-luxury SUVs, side-by-sides, and custom builds. Any complete list is a snapshot shaped by access and timing.

Style shifted from black-tie flex and tactical cosplay to tees, trainers, and clean watches. It remains curated, just less costume. There’s no wife. Romantic partners often appeared as part of the brand aesthetic. He remains close with his brother, Adam, who also plays. That family note recurs across interviews and posts.

What Dan Bilzerian Thinks About Gambling and Casino Games

On poker, he frames skill riding variance. Sit when the lineup is soft and the swings fit your bankroll. On blackjack strategy, if rules or promos can’t bend the math, walk. Negative EV isn’t romance; it’s rent. On sportsbooks, price first and team second. These principles are sound. I judge them by behavior, not captions, because captions flatter.

Dan Bilzerian Fact vs Fiction

The facts are simple. Dan Bilzerian sustained enormous social reach, booked one public tournament cash, and spent heavily to manufacture attention. Likely embellishments are familiar. Specific poker windfalls lack corroboration.

The “self-made” arc ignores a family runway. Ownership optics often resolved to leases or borrowed sets. The gray remains. Multi-year profit in private games is possible, not provable, and the valuation shifts with audience heat.

Collapse Timeline

• Rise, 2014–2018: audience explodes; mansion shoots multiply; private-game lore grows. Strategy: scale spectacle to grow reach.
• Peak, 2019–2021: content maxes; a book lands; the brand goes wide. Strategy: convert attention to products.
• Retrenchment, 2022: high spend draws scrutiny and setbacks. Lesson: burn rates beat narratives.
• Fallout, 2024–2025: fewer posts; real-estate exits; overseas stretches. Pivot: protect margin, not myth.

Practical Casino Lessons

Seasoned pros tend to agree on a few basics. Choose casino games you can price; if you can’t quantify edge, it’s entertainment. In poker, lineup and position beat swagger; press only when conditions align and shrink during downswings.

In private games, access is the asset, so guard information and invitations. Don’t mistake reach for edge. When the numbers stop working, stop.

Final Verdict on Dan Bilzerian — What Happened and Net Worth

On the record, he isn’t a poker savant. Public tournament earnings total $36,626, with no additional verified wins. Claims of huge private-game profits remain uncorroborated. The poker-great narrative lacks evidence.

What happened to Dan Bilzerian is straightforward: the spectacle slowed as brand economics tightened and audiences moved on. Dan Bilzerian net worth is best treated as a moving range tied to deals and attention, not a trophy number. For gamblers, the lesson holds. Selection, discipline, and price beat performance theater — every single time.

Quick FAQ

What happened to Dan Bilzerian?

He scaled back posting and launches when the cost of spectacle exceeded the returns, shifting to lower-gear monetization.

What is Dan Bilzerian’s net worth?

Treat it as a moving range — tens of millions — driven by deals, attention, and private finances; no audited figure exists.

Did Dan Bilzerian win big at poker?

Public tournament earnings total $36,626. Claims of major private-game profits are unverified.

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