Edge Sorting

The year 2012 was a sweet one for celebrity poker pro Phil Ivey and Cheung Yin “Kelly” Sun, a woman who would become known as the Queen of Sorts. 

Mississippi Stud (MS) has more vulnerability to advantage play, by far, than any other proprietary table game or side bet. The scope of the game protection issues the game has stretches from collusion, to hole card play, to edge sorting, to others I don’t know about. The reason for all of these issues is the ability of the AP to place up to 9 extra units and then receive multiplied payouts when sufficient extra information is available.

To bring you up to date, I was Ivey's expert witness in this case: that has been the primary cause of my reluctance to post over the last few months, and in particular my complete absence of posts over the last month. In case you live under a rock and haven't heard the news, Ivey lost the case.

There have now been three court decisions (and two appeals) in three distinct jurisdictions regarding the question of whether edge sorting at mini-baccarat is advantage play. In every case the decision came down on the side of the casino without a determination of criminal cheating. As Phil Ivey's expert in the Crockford's case, I obviously fall into the "edge sorting is advantage play" camp.

In considering the accomplishment of Phil Ivey at Crockfords Casino (see this post), it is worth considering the full breadth of the problem of ill-designed cards and edge sorting. Phil Ivey did not get lucky by finding an especially rare card in a far-away location that could be sorted. My personal survey of 650 casino decks showed that fully 70% of all cards contain asymmetries that allow them to be sorted. Poorly manufactured cards are ubiquitous.

Let it Ride (LIR) and Mississippi Stud (MS) have a lot of design elements in common. Both games involve no competition against the dealer. Both games pay based on the final poker-value of the player’s five-card poker hand. Both games have a minimum hand that pays (a pair of Tens for LIR and a pair of Jacks for MS). They both involve an Ante bet, and raises after cards are exposed.  They both involve cards that are face down on the table, making hole-carding and edge sorting potential methods of advantage play. But there are big differences when it comes to their vulnerability.

An AP who wants to edge sort in baccarat is like a Sumo wrestler who wants to perform ballet: just because he wants to do it does not mean it is possible. In most baccarat games, the player doesn’t touch the cards. When the player is allowed to turn over the cards, it is usually done with the finesse of a drunken elephant; the cards rarely survive the ordeal.  In many casinos, pre-shuffled shoes are brought into play. In the situation where the cards are re-used, getting the cards to be correctly oriented is yet another challenge.