Aces Manufacturing based in Las Vegas produces “Video Poker Analyzer” capable of monitoring players expertise in playing correct video poker strategy. In the first quarter of 2024 they published a study that identified profits lost to advantage video poker players.

This article explores that article and make some observations.

Contents

  1. The highlights of the study
  2. How the Video Poker Analyzer works
  3. Study recommendations
  4. What does this mean for video poker players?
  5. And another thing
  6. Summary

The highlights of the study

The study, which was published by the company on March 20, 2024, used information gathered by the company’s Video Poker Analyzer. The purpose of the analyzer is to reveal “the identity and lost-profit impact of highly skilled video poker players, known to the industry as Advantage Players (‘APs’).”

The study is based on data from over “three million hands played by over one thousand identified carded players.” According to the study a “small population” of APs can consistently win and obtain a lopsided portion of casino offers.

Specifics according to the study are:

  • About 1 percent of the population is made up of APs.
  • These players garnered 25.63% of live casinos' trackable (player’s club card inserted) wins during the study.
  • Over two-thirds of these players made a profit from their play.
  • Because these players were responsible for almost 26% of the coin-in, loyalty programs rewarded them more highly than less skilled players.

How the Video Poker Analyzer works

According to the study Video Poker Analyzer (VPA) is “compatible with any modern slot machine and any casino management system.” The VPA tracks each hand dealt and monitors the player's hold choices.

These choices are then compared to the optimal strategy and a dollar value is assigned to any player error. A “skill rating can be assigned to help predict the casino’s profit and loss each time the carded player returns.”

Study recommendations

The study states that the VPA can identify APs to which casinos can then restrict marketing offers and redirect them to less-skilled players.

It states that by using the VPA data, casinos could see more than a 45% improvement to video poker profits by excluding and reducing APs through a reallocation of marketing dollars to more profitable players.

Video poker advantage play

What does this mean for video poker players?

Before this product, the only skill factor casinos could track were the wins and losses of carded players on these casino games. They knew the coin-in and the amount cashed out. The problem with this is even players who play perfectly can have days where they lose. Poor players can have days where they win. This product can eliminate doubt from the equation.

The numbers quoted in the study seem a bit high to me. This could be due to the casino that was included in the study. The play for the study was taken “at a Las Vegas locals casino.” Locals casinos tend to have higher returns. They also tend to have better offers such as cash back and point multipliers on certain days.

The study focuses strictly on the APs. While I have no doubt they win more (or lose less) in the long run, without special offers, such as point multipliers, they will not win in the long run. Very few pay tables are positive any more. 

It is entirely possible that the product is directed at locals’ casinos since strip and even downtown casinos on average have much lower returns than locals. This, alone, tends to keep APs away.

This product should not cause casinos to lower returns on video poker – well not any more than casinos are already inclined to lower them. It seems this product can be used to accurately identify and act on other elements of the casino player’s experience. 

These items could include cash back, points multipliers, and other casino bonus and promotion offers. VPA would help target good players for reduction in such offers.

Also, currently some casino players' clubs already factor in losses as a criteria for offers and other comps such as rooms and free food and drink. If you lose too little, you do not get as much of those freebies. There is little need for casinos to pay for the VPA system when the casino factors in losses. 

And another thing …

I am not aware how seriously casinos take the argument that advantage players bring with them less skilled players. These players help offset whatever the APs win. Some casinos allow players to link players' club cards for comps.

These casinos can track how much players linked to the APs add to their coffers. But advantage players also bring friends who would not be linked – nor tracked. So, casinos could be hurting themselves by acting based strictly on the advantage players.

There is also the argument that many casino-goers spend money in other areas. They buy food, drink, and merchandise. While I am sure casino management is aware of these amounts, they have no good way to tie it to a players club card.

Summary 

The Video Poker Analyzer will definitely help casinos locate video poker advantage players. I am confident that some casinos will opt to pay for this product and act based on data collected. They will have the data and can apply a fix any way they see fit.

Even though the study shows that 1 percent of carded players account for almost 26% of the coin in, thereby getting a good share of offers, there is a down side.

  • The Video Poker Analyzer has costs for the casino to use it.
  • It only tracks carded video poker players.
  • It does not have the ability to track those who accompany the advantage players.
  • Depending on the cost, simply losing advantage players along with their companions could hurt the casino more than it helps.

Time will tell how Las Vegas casinos will react to Video Poker Analyzer.
 

July 2, 2024

By Jerry Stich

Jerry "Stickman" Stich
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Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

Jerry Stich
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The average casual video poker player is probably unaware of any of the title’s four elements other than in the most general sense. Seasoned video poker players are well aware of return when it comes to this casino game. It is almost certainly the main criteria they use to identify their chosen game. They may have a general feeling about the other three elements. 

Few video poker players understand fully the meaning and interconnection between these four elements related to video poker play. This article will explore these four elements and how each interacts with the others.

Contents

  1. The four elements defined
  2. How return affects bankroll size and risk of ruin
  3. How variance affects bankroll size and risk of ruin 
  4. How bankroll size affects risk of ruin
  5. Summary

The four elements defined

Before explaining how these four elements are interrelated, it is good to define each of them.

Return:

Return is simply the amount of money from the casino that is returned to the player on average. It is expressed as a percentage. For example, a return of 95% means that on average for every $100 played through the game, $95 is returned to the player as winnings. The casino enjoys a 5% profit on this machine.

Again, this is the average return after hundreds of thousands of dollars in play. The short-term return can vary wildly. The player could hit a royal flush, skyrocketing the player’s return.

The player could also go long periods of time without hitting any wins of consequence, plummeting the player’s return. After a long periods of play, however, the return should approach the mathematically calculated percentage.

Variance:

According to investopedia.com, “The simple definition of the term ‘variance’ is the spread between numbers in a data set. Variance is a statistical measurement used to determine how far each number is from the mean and from every other number in the set. You can calculate the variance by taking the difference between each point and the mean.”

Put into gaming parlance, it is a measurement of how far player’s wins and losses vary. Low variance games have winning hands occurring fairly regularly and paying roughly the same amount meaning wins and losses tend to balance each other out in a short period of time.

High variance games have most of the winnings in high-paying and infrequently occurring hands meaning there are long periods of losing and very large but short streaks of winning. 

Bankroll:

According to Merriam-Webster, “The meaning of bankroll is supply of money : funds.” When it comes to gambling, bankroll is the amount of money that is available to the player with which to gamble. It could be cash in the pocket, room, or casino safe. Or it could be the casino line of credit available to player.

Risk of ruin:

According to Wikipedia, “Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one's investment capital or extinguishing one's bankroll below the minimum for further play.”

When referring to casino gaming, it commonly means the likelihood of losing the entire bankroll allocated to play. Risk of ruin is represented as a percentage. 

On a personal level, risk of ruin describes the player’s appetite for risk. Is the player a risk taker? If so, his risk of ruin tolerance might be 20% – meaning the player is willing to lose the entire bankroll 20% (one in five) of the times he plays. A risk-averse player might be comfortable with only a !% (one in 100). Note that it can never be zero, since anything can happen.

There are two classifications of risk of ruin: session and lifetime. Session refers to a limited amount of play, whether a single session or multiple sessions that make up a day, or trip. Lifetime risk of ruin means unlimited play.

Video Poker

How return affects bankroll size and risk of ruin

Return can have a huge affect on bankroll size and risk of ruin in video poker. If return is close to 100%, bankroll size requirements are lower. The chance of losing larger amounts is less, since the return is high. Session risk of ruin is also low based on low loss expectations

As return to the player goes down, bankroll requirements naturally increase. The player loses more over the long run so the bankroll size needs to be higher to overcome the higher losses. The session risk of ruin also increases due the higher expectation of losses.

If return to the player is more than 100%, bankroll requirements can be minimal since the long-term outlook is positive. Session risk of ruin is also minimized due the positive expectation of winning.

Also, for returns of less than 100%, the lifetime risk of ruin is always 100%. It is only a matter of time before a finite bankroll will be exhausted. Only when the game has a positive return is the lifetime risk of ruin something less than 100%. 

Risk of ruin can be calculated if the proper elements of the game are known. More on this later.

How variance affects bankroll size and risk of ruin

Low variance causes a reduction on the bankroll size due to smaller changes in the bankroll (both up and down) while playing a low-variance game.

High variance games, on the other hand, require an increased bankroll size to handle the larger amounts of loss and win defined by these games.

Risk of ruin is also impacted by variance. Because of deeper levels of loss than low variance games, high variance games have a higher risk of ruin when all other elements are the same.

How bankroll size affects risk of ruin

Bankroll size has the greatest impact on session risk of ruin. Larger bankrolls have greater reserves to finance losing streaks, improving the players chance of success – and thereby reducing their risk of ruin.

In order for a lifetime risk of ruin to be less than total (100%), return is the most important factor. Unless the return is greater than 100%, lifetime risk of ruin is 100%. Ultimately, the player will be bankrupt since the player loses more as he plays more. If he plays infinitely long, he will certainly be bankrupted.

The elements required to determine session or lifetime risk of ruin are, unsurprisingly the other three elements described in this article – bankroll size, return, and variance. There are several risk of ruin calculators available online. If return is over 100%, lifetime risk of ruin can be calculated, otherwise only session risk of ruin calculations are possible.

Most calculators allow the calculation of risk of ruin by inputting bankroll size, return, and variance. They also allow bankroll size to be calculated by inputting return, variance, and risk of ruin percentage that is acceptable to the player.

For more tips, check out 888casino's Video Poker Strategy Guide.

Summary 

Comparing risk of ruin to bankroll size is a great way for payers to understand what is likely to transpire in the casino. They can mentally prepare themselves before beginning play. This mental preparation goes a long way to maintain the player’s control while playing their favorite came.

  • The four elements (bankroll size, return, variance, and risk of ruin) are all interrelated. Changing any one of the elements changes bankroll size and/or risk of ruin. 
  • Session risk of ruin can be calculated for any value of bankroll size, return, and variance. Small bankroll size means short sessions.
  • Lifetime risk of ruin is only meaningful if return is over 100%. Lifetime risk of ruin is 100 percent when return is less than 100%.
June 16, 2024

By Jerry Stich

Jerry "Stickman" Stich
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Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

Jerry Stich
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I have written so many articles and books on craps that I have decided to start this article by looking at the often deliberately-overlooked area of the game. Many gambling writers shy away from the darkside because it is uncomfortable to write about and thus they give short shrift to it and its devoted but usually quiet players.

That’s right. I am going to lead some of you, maybe many of you, into the darkest corner of the most exciting game in the casino; a corner fraught with really deep emotion but not the loud, wacky, intrusive emotion of the wild crowd maybe cheering and maybe whining and complaining all about you who are not playing the darkside.

You will probably be alone on this side of the game but anyone who plays and wins craps on the darkside knows the joy of being perhaps the one and only such player at a table. 

The word “unique” comes to mind when discussing the darksider. Unique and strong-willed and not afraid of anything at a craps game. Winning at craps is their desire; not wanting to be merely a part of the crowd. Everyone can be losing at craps while the darksider takes the money and can walk from the game as the out-and-out winner!

Rightside vs. darkside

There are two essential games of craps, those being the rightside and the darkside, the former going with the number or point; the latter standing on one’s own and going against the number or point. 

And that second player, known as the darksider or the “don’t player,” means you are rooting against the shooter whose desires are to satisfy the mob of the other players at almost all tables by making his point or other numbers other than the 7 which will knock him or her out of the game as the dice will then be passed to the next shooter.

When a shooter fails to make his point and sevens-out, the table will often moan as if they are one being. The darksider thinks it is too bad for those other players as the darksider can rejoice in his win while that rightside mob is licking their wounds on their losses.

Many of you know how casino games are played. The new shooter gets the dice and this is called the “come-out roll” that starts the shooter’s turn to establish a point (any of these numbers, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) or hitting an immediate win of the 7 or 11. The longer the shooter can hold the dice, the better it usually is for the rightside contingent, the worse it usually is for the darksider.

However, once the point is established, the darksider usually goes to work making bets that call for the 7 to hit. That 7 means a win on every darkside bet the player has made.

On the come-out roll, the darksider can win immediately on the 2, 3 and tie on the 12 (four chances to hit one of those), although he or she loses on the 7 or 11 (eight chances to lose). Okay, no doubt, that the come-out roll favors the rightside player but once a point is established the darksider is in command. Winning at craps becomes easier at this point for the darksider than for the rightsiders.

That 7 has six chances to come up, the most appearances compared to any other number. The darksider is good friends with the 7 except on the come-out roll. That 7 loses all the bets of rightsiders but wins all the bets of the darksiders during the point cycle of the game.

You can bet several ways on the darkside of the game. On the come-out roll, you place your “don’t pass” wager and hope for a 2 or 3. The 12 is a push (tie). Obviously, you win your bet if one of those two numbers shows.

Once a point is made, you will win on any 7.

A look at the house edge

What is the house edge against the darksider in craps? It is a mere 1.36%! 

That’s right; the darksider will lose $1.36 per $100 wagered – one of the very best bets in the casino.

[Please note: The darksider can make a “don’t come” bet which can go up directly on a number. Again, our darksider is rooting for the 7 to appear before that number for a win. And the darksider can lay the odds as well.] 

Now, once the darksider is on a number, he or she has the choice of “laying odds” against that number. Because the 7 has the edge against all the numbers, the darksider must place the long end of the odds bet. 

If the casino allows double odds on a pass-line bet or a come bet, the darksider can lay the odds against that number. If the number is 6, the darksider puts $6 for every $5 he or she hopes to win. On the numbers 5 and 9, the darksider will put up $3 for every $2 he or she wishes to win and on the 4 and 10, the darksider will put up $2 for every $1 he or she wants to win. 

Of course, the odds will be higher amounts of money than those shown above. If the point is a 10 in the double odds game, the darksider can put up $40 to win $20 on a $10 minimum-bet game. Remember, the darksider is in the driver’s seat when the game is being played after the come-out roll. 

There are darksider place bets where you go directly up against a certain number and root for that number to lose to the 7. You can ask the dealer how to do these if you wish. Personally, I prefer to keep the number of bets I use to one or a maximum of two.

I would stick with the don’t-pass bets and the don’t come bets. Once you lay odds on these bets the house edge sinks even more!

Now, to finish this and let you know one thing – rightside players tend to dislike darksiders. (Some say they “hate” darksiders.) You will rarely see or hear a darksider loudly rooting for the 7. I’ve seen this a few times in almost 40 years of play. It isn’t usual.

Okay, there you have it. Now you can bet a good bet at a great game and to heck with all the other players scowling at you.

Craps dice

The altar of craps

Take a close look at that craps table in action with players and live casino dealers taking up spots all around it. What is it they are actually doing? Doesn’t it resemble an ancient altar, the Mayans, the Incas, the ancient churches? Is something being sacrificed to the powers-that-be? 

To me it does seem quite ritualistic and the emotions that craps bring out in players can certainly be intense. It is almost as if we are putting up a sacrifice when we put up a bet at the game. We want the gods and goddesses of luck to be on our side, don’t we? I certainly do. 

Or maybe this is just my imagination? I don’t really know. But it seems so to me that craps exists in its own universe. And that’s enough for me.

No matter what, casino craps certainly has many rules and regulations imposed by the casino in order for the game to run smoothly. These I am sure most craps players know even after just one or two sessions of playing the game. Most dealers know the game and know how to make the game run smoothly. Dealers are the actual trainers of the players. 

However, there are some “rules” that I am now putting in quotes which are strongly believed in by many craps players – even if these “rules” aren’t written on the signage at the table. In fact, for some players these “rules” are close to commandments and must be obeyed. 

Get thee ready to learn the “tablets” of this great game that I am now bringing down the mountain!

  1. Do not talk to a shooter once he or she is passed the dice. Although the game is random, many shooters like to take care with their rolls and they prefer not having someone bothering them or jabbering at them. If you are the critical type, save your negative comments for yourself. No one wants to hear you lambasting a shooter who just sevened-out – certainly the shooter doesn’t. Everyone sevens-out. Life is death, taxes and sevening out.
  2. If a shooter has hit his or her point, don’t jump in his or her face enthusiastically blowing your garlic-wine-scotch-cigarette-cigar-scented breath into his or her nose. That is not a turn-on for any shooter. Does that turn you on? I doubt it. Best to clap and leave the shooter be.
  3. Keeping the shooter safe to shoot without harassment from other players is an important thing to remember. Clapping? Yes, of course. Cheering? Yes, certainly. Going farther than that? No and no. So, hands and breath off all shooters. You can be loud at a craps table but do not be loud directly into someone else’s face.
  4. Do not dangle your arms down the inside of the table. That is bad manners and often you will see and hear even dealers sternly warn you about not doing that. Shooters hate it and so do the non-shooters at the table. Your arms belong on your side of the table and preferably not in someone else’s space.
  5. Do not try to get into the game when the shooter has the dice in his or her hand. Put your money on the table when the dice are being controlled by the dealer in the middle of the table. In short, if the shooter has dice, you do nothing. Dice are being controlled by the dealer in the middle of the table, put your money down and get into the game. That’s the sequence. 
  6. If you are across the length of the table from the shooter, don’t cause much of a stir because some shooters don’t want to look at you gyrating. 
  7. It used to be standard practice when I first started playing craps in the olden (golden) days of Atlantic City (hey, do any of you remember the time you had to pay to get into the first casino, which was Resorts Casino in those olden, golden days?) many players would tip the shooters who just had good rolls, even modestly good rolls. You don’t see this as much anymore. I liked the practice because it created harmony at the table among the players. My early tutors in craps were those great World War II veterans. The greatest generation and the greatest craps generation – at least to me. So, if you feel like tipping that shooter? Do so and think a good thought about the greatest generation.
  8. If you smoke (stop right now) do not blow the smoke out over the table. Blow it behind you away from the other players. Fewer people smoke now but it is still an annoying habit for those players who do not indulge in that particular habit. So be careful if you are a smoker.
  9. Do not count the shooter’s rolls out loud. (“Hey! Hey! Hey! That’s number eighteen everyone. We got a hot one here! Keep it up big guy!”) That is distracting for the shooter and the rest of us at the table. Count to yourself. Oh, and be happy if the shooter can get into those double digits. That’s good shooting.   
  10.  If you are a “darksider” (meaning a don’t player) do not cheer if the shooter sevens-out. That’s bad manners, also dangerous in some casinos in our land. Remember that those craps tables do resemble an altar like the ones from the ancient past – and you know what happened on many of them, right? So happy, yes, but quiet is good advice.
  11.  Don’t hold your drink over the table (or any food). Keep it on your side of the table so if it spills it doesn’t spill on the layout.
  12.  If you enjoy setting the dice in certain configurations then make sure you can do it somewhat quickly. Other players are not as enamored with other players’ shooting forms. By the way, I am, but I think I do not represent the other players.
  13.  And do not say the word “seven.”

All the best in and out of the casinos!

June 10, 2024

By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete
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Frank Scoblete grew up in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. He spent the ‘60s getting an education; the ‘70s in editing, writing and publishing; the ‘80s in theatre, and the ‘90s and the 2000s in casino gambling.

Along the way he taught English for 33 years. He has authored 35 books; his most recent publisher is Triumph Books, a division of Random House. He lives in Long Island. Frank wrote the Roulette strategy guide and he's a well known casino specialist. 

Frank Scoblete
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Everything in this article is absolutely true (meaning absolutely false) and the words come from the mouths of casino gamblers – adult casino players, not kids. However, the advice and opinions offered go from just bad to just horrendous and everything in between. 

Too many casino players just have totally wrong opinions, and yet on some of these opinions those players just can’t let them go. Indeed, all the more horror for them if they cling to such falsehoods because it costs them a lot more in losses than they need to experience. In general, casinos don’t have such real horrors in their thinking for casinos it is just money in and money in.

New Betting System?

Joey: I’ve been playing for five years once a month and let me tell you I have the best method for my play. It works most of the times. That it does. You can’t ask for anything more than that. It is called the Martyrdale (sic) and it is a very old way to overcome a game that has a house edge. I have taken away the house edge by playing this way folks. I’ll share with you for free.

After every loss, you double your previous bet. Just about every time you lose you will win an upcoming bet and make all your losses back. What could be simpler than this? I am surprised that other players don’t play this way. Maybe because I am new to casino playing and I have fresh eyes and also that other players just haven’t given the games much thought. There would be no casinos if everyone played as I do. So maybe I should be happy and stay quiet.

Frank responds: Joey, nope and nope again, you will lose a few times here and there and guess what? You will be blown away those few times and your losses will be gigantic as you try to recover the previous bets you lost.

The betting system, by the way, is called the Martingale and it is one of the most dangerous methods of playing casino games. Play it enough and you will take a brutal beating. The house edge is working there bright and brutal and it will bounce on you all over even though you think you have a winning method. You don’t.

Collecting Comps

Nanny: Roulette is a great game and I am thinking of playing it. I look at the wheel and it has all those numbers, sure, but what if I bet all those numbers at once? I have to win on one number, right? Therefore, I will always break even on every spin of the wheel, right? Can you imagine the comps I’ll get because of that? I could probably live off them. What a life! The casinos will be paying for me to live like a billionaire.

Frank responds: Nanny, I’m shaking you now to wake you up. There are three different roulette games out there right now and all of them pay a winning number 35-to-1. Sounds good, right? But one game has 38 numbers (1 through 36 and a 0 and 00) and is known as the American game; the other game has 37 numbers (1-36 plus a 0) and is known as the European/French game; and the third game, the newest and the worst of them all, has 39 numbers, 1-36 plus a 0, 00, and 000. No country has taken discredit for that game.

If you bet all the numbers you will win on every spin, yes, but that win will not cover the losses you have on every spin too. So, you will, pardon my wording, go down the nastiest longest losing streak drain in history and find yourself landing time and time again quite hard. 

Trying to figure out a way to out beat the casino is difficult, almost impossible. Take that truth to heart. Some very few (very, very few) methods have been developed to beat the house that work but those methods are hard to learn and execute in the casinos and the casino knows those methods and can usually spot a player attempting to use one. So, let caution be your buzzword. 

Just for your information: The American game has a house edge of 5.26%, meaning a loss of $5.26 per $100 wagered. The European/French game has a house edge of 2.7%, meaning a loss of $2.70 per $100 wagered. 

And that third game? The “untitled” game has a house edge of 7.69%. Yuck! Yuck! You can figure out what the house wins easily now…right? I have an easy way to do this figuring. Just dip into your purse or pocket and all that money will be theirs if you insist on playing this game the way you suggest. We roulette players have to hope the “Yuck, Yuck” game will fade out before we do.

Blackjack Table

Baffled by Basic Strategy

George: I looked at the “what is called basic strategy” for blackjack and some of the moves do not make any sense at all. I’ve got to think that the casinos have put out this strategy to cost the players a lot of money if they bet this way.

Okay, look at the player hand of 12 going up against the 2 or 3 dealer up-card? What the heck, the basic strategy says to hit your 12, seriously? Oh, come on, really? How about that bad hand of a 16 versus a dealer 10 up-card? Take a hit? Oh, man, idiotic. 

Now, you have a blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace. That dealer could also have a blackjack. But the idiot basic strategy says to just stay on your blackjack and not insure your hand which gives you an absolute win. What gives? You are giving up a guaranteed win by not insuring. Nuts!

There are many more examples but you get the picture. The basic strategy has been sold to us by the casinos. Every blackjack player should see that truth.

Frank responds: You are wrong George. In every way. The casinos did not invent “basic strategy,” they would prefer if the casinos players just played their own made-up (and wrong) strategies. 

Every hand you discussed; you will be playing incorrectly if you make the decisions you suggest. You will lose more and win less – simple as that. 

One on One and Done

Unless you can practice an advantage-play technique such as card counting at blackjack or dice control at craps or you own the luck-goddesses of the universe, you are ultimately doomed to lose to the casinos in your contests with them. 

It’s in the cards, and the ball, and the machine, and the dice. No way around that unless we win our first bet or session and quit forevermore. Then we are long-term winners even if our long term is just one bet or one session. 

I do not think any casino players think differently. Oh, perhaps some have the idea that without a stroke of massive luck, they will still beat one of the most successful industries on the planet based on their betting styles. These players are poor losing souls indeed.

Okay, forgetting buckets of magical luck washing over you and seemingly endless hours of learning hard-to-learn advantage-play techniques, what is the best way to play the games without getting hammered over any prolonged period of time? I think I can answer that question.

Saving money is a good thing when you play casino games. I think you can actually be just as thrilled when you know your play is somewhat thrifty. Being thrifty will not reduce your chances to win some money. And a chance to win is always the reason we feel that delightful sense of anticipation as we wait for the next decision.

Get ready for my secret ... here it comes – play only one bet at any game you enjoy playing. One bet at a time! Let’s look at some of the games and see how this idea works itself out.

Craps table

Craps

Craps is a game with multiple bets, most of them simply awful, with house edges way, way up there in double digits. What’s worse is that craps players delight in making multiple bets at the game, some good, many rotten with those rotten ones usually taking away any chance that the players will be ahead – even today or tonight. Many craps players need truly good or great shooters to bring home the money to them.

Stop betting multiple bets. Stick with the following bets – only one of them:

  1. Pass line or come bets taking the odds when these bets are up on a number. Make sure the odds bets are big and the line or come bets are small. The odds bet has no house edge attached to them. The formula is small line and come bets, highest odds you can afford or are allowed.
  2. Play at tables that are crowded. The more players, the slower the game. The slower the game, the better for the player. The game will seem fast but being at an empty or relatively empty table will make the game much faster against your bets.
  3. If you are a don’t player (a darksider) the advice is the same – one bet with the laying of odds. Full table or close to it. No place bets.
  4. Do not make any place bets except (maybe) the placing of the 6 or 8 on the rightside of the game. Just one of those numbers.
  5. I do believe in tipping the dealers but make your tips reasonable in relation to the size of your bets. Do not tip away your profits.

Blackjack

This the most popular table game and a cash cow for the casino against the players. Play one-on-one against the dealer and you are looking at over 100 decisions (or more) per hour. Yikes. Many blackjack hands come out to be more than one hand; doubling down, splitting pairs, with some of them really poor bets. 

Here are your rules of play:

  1. Play at full tables.
  2. Only play one hand; do not spread to two hands, unless the basic strategy calls for it.  
  3. Go to the bathroom during playtime, not during the shuffles. That bathroom time does not risk any of your money. Relieve yourself without worrying about the casino relieving you of your dough.
  4. Play perfect basic strategy and do not (do not) listen to the pundits who don’t think basic strategy is the proper way to play.
  5. Tip in relation to your bet sizes. Do not go overboard if you are having a hot night.

Roulette

The oldest game in the modern casino – brought to you by none other than Blaise Pascal, a brilliant philosopher and scientist of the 1600s. This is a game with many opportunities to make many different kinds of bets. You can make any one of these bets – but just one bet, no more. But I do have my recommendations here as well.

  • Do not play straight up by putting one bet on one number on the main layout. The chances of hitting that one number for a 35-to-1 payout will have you see many losing streaks, some of them very, very long losing streaks. 
  • There are three roulette games in today’s casinos, the single-zero game (0); the double-zero game (0, 00); and the triple-zero game (0, 00, 000). All the payouts for straight-up bets are 35-to-1 but the games get worse from one-zero to three zeroes. 
  • The house edge on the single-zero game is 2.7%, on the double-zero game is 5.26% and on the triple-zero game the house edge skyrockets to 7.69%.
  • I recommend that you only play the even-money bets of red/back, odd/even, or high/low. The payouts on these bets are one-to-one but you will not experience losing streaks that are monumental as they can be with straight up bets on the main layout. You will win 18 times and lose 19 times on single-zero; win 18 times lose 20 times on double-zero; and win 18 times and lose 21 times on triple-zero. 
  • Only make one bet; do not spread out as other roulette players will do. It is a bad strategy and wastes a lot of your (hard-earned) money.
  • Again, tip in relation to your session bankroll.

Do not play longer than you normally would even when situations look promising. This strategy is called one-on-one. Using it will not cost you as much money. Thrift is a good thing.

June 5, 2024

By Frank Scoblete

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Frank Scoblete grew up in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. He spent the ‘60s getting an education; the ‘70s in editing, writing and publishing; the ‘80s in theatre, and the ‘90s and the 2000s in casino gambling.

Along the way he taught English for 33 years. He has authored 35 books; his most recent publisher is Triumph Books, a division of Random House. He lives in Long Island. Frank wrote the Roulette strategy guide and he's a well known casino specialist. 

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Video poker players who play the game regularly – or even not so regularly – tend to have a favorite game or few games. They tend to play these games exclusively. They play the same pay tables for these select games. 

The reason for this is these players have learned and practiced the proper playing strategy for the specific game (or games) and pay tables that they play. They do this to maximize the return from their video poker play. 

But what happens if they cannot find one of their games and pay tables, but there is a similar – but different – game/pay table available. 

Many of the more seasoned players with easy access to several live casinos will simply not play if they cannot find their game/pay table.

Some video poker players who also have favorite games and have practiced the proper strategy for those games. However, they have limited access to casinos and are willing to sacrifice some return to enjoy playing the game.

While this article is focused on these latter players, it may also be of interest to the former. Is playing a close, but wrong, video poker strategy that big a deal? How much does it actually cost a player? Read on to find out more.

Contents

  1. The games and strategies that are examined
  2. Not exactly the same strategy in some cases
  3. Returns from Jacks or Better based games
  4. Returns from Deuces Wild based games
  5. Pay table (only) differences
  6. Summary

1 – The games and strategies that are examined

This article will only examine only a few of the most popular video poker games and their strategies. They are:

  • Full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better
  • Full-pay (8/5) Bonus Poker
  • Full-pay (10/7) Double Bonus Poker
  • 9/6 Double-Double Bonus Poker
  • Full-pay (15/9/5/3/2/2/1) Deuces Wild
  • Not So Ugly Ducks (NSUD) (16,10,4,4,3,2,1) Deuces Wild

2 – Not exactly the same strategy in some cases

While, theoretically, this article is about playing a different strategy, there is at least one situation where some basic common sense should override the strict strategy. That common sense change involves playing a Double-Double Bonus game using any of the other Jacks or Better based strategies mentioned in the article – specifically: Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, and Double Bonus Poker.

When dealt four aces through 4s, the player would keep an ace through 4 kicker. Normally in the game the strategy is developed for, there is no reason to keep a kicker, but it is worth a bundle when playing Double-Double Bonus.

3 – Returns from Jacks or Better based games

The table below shows the game played in the left column with the returns from the different game tips in the columns to the right.

Game

Return

9/6 Jacks

8/5 Bonus

10/7 DBP

9/6 DDB

 

%

Retn 

Diff

Retn

Diff

Retn

Diff

Retn

Diff

9/6 JoB

99.54

99.54

0.00

99.54

0.00

98.94

-0.60

98.51

-1.03

8/5 BP

99.17

99.17

0.00

99.17

0.00

98.20

-0.97

98.37

-0.80

10/7 DB

100.17

100.17

0.00

99.61

-0.56

100.17

0.00

99.86

-0.31

9/7/5 DB

99.11

99.11

0.00

98.46

-0.65

99.05

-0.06

98.77

-0.34

9/6 DDB

98.98

98.98

0.00

98.61

-0.37

98.45

-0.53

98.98

0.00

In some cases, the difference is surprisingly small. The differences range from zero to a 1.03% reduction in the return. 

Let us put these numbers into perspective. Assume the game denomination is a quarter. Each bet would then be $1.25. Also assume a play speed of 500 hands per hour. Your speed could be less or it could be more, but 500 is a nice moderate pace for examples. 

At this rate, $625 would be played through the game every hour. The smallest reduction in return is 0.06%. That works out to 37.5 cents per hour. Certainly, that will not matter very much. But let’s look at some other reductions to see how they impact the bankroll.

  • 0.31% amounts to $1.94 per hour.
  • 0.34% amounts to $2.13 per hour.
  • 0.37% is $2.31 per hour.
  • 0.53% is $3.31 per hour.
  • 0.56% is $3.50.
  • 0.65% is $4.06.
  • 0.80% is $5.00.
  • And, finally, 1.03% is $6.43 per hour.

Some of the reductions in return have a big impact. If the thought of using a strategy familiar to you seems tempting, please remember these numbers before taking the plunge.

4 – Returns from Deuces Wild based games

The following table shows the game played in the left column with the returns from the different strategies in the columns to the right.

Game

Return

Full Pay DW

NSUD

 

%

Retn 

Diff

Retn

Diff

FP DW

100.76

100.76

0.00

99.73

-1.03

NSUD

99.73

98.80

-0.93

99.73

0.00

There is no good news in the Deuces Wild variety. Playing the wrong strategy costs, and costs big. This is something you should really think about before trying. It is much better to take the time to learn the proper strategy than to commit to more than five dollar per hour reduction in return.

Double Bonus video poker

5 – Pay table (only) differences

What happens if the strategy being played is for the correct game, but the pay table is different? How does that affect the return?

Following are a few examples of the cost of playing the strategy for the same game but a different pay table.

Jacks or Better

  • Strategy used: Full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better – 99.54 percent return

Game Played

Optimal Return

Modified Return

Difference

JoB 8/5

97.20%

97.29%

-0.01%

JoB 6/5

95.00%

94.99%

-0.01%

  • Strategy used: 8/5 Bonus Poker – 99.17 percent return

Game Played

Optimal Return

Modified Return

Difference

BP 7/5

98.01%

98.01%

-0.00%

JoB 6/5

95.00%

94.99%

-0.01%

  • Strategy used: 10/7 Double Bonus Poker – 100.17 percent return

Game Played

Optimal Return

Modified Return

Difference

DBP 9/6

97.81%

97.56%

-0.25%

DBP 8/5/4

94.19%

93.44%

-0.75%

  • Strategy used: 9/6 Double-Double Bonus – 98.98 percent return

Game Played

Optimal Return

Modified Return

Difference

DDB 10/6

100.07%

100.07%

-0.00%

DDB 6/5

94.66%

94.59%

-0.07%

  • Strategy used: Full-pay (15/9/5/3/2/2/1) Deuces Wild – 99.54 percent return

Game Played

Optimal Return

Modified Return

Difference

DW NSUD**

99.73%

98.78%

-0.95%

In most cases, there is not much difference in returns between playing the proper pay table strategy and playing the strategy for most common pay table. The glaring differences are for Double-Double Bonus and Deuces Wild. 

6 – Summary 

  • It is very difficult to master strategies for all video poker games and pay tables.
  • Using a known strategy for a similar game can be an option for some players.
  • Some strategies are not a good match for certain other games.
  • The impact on return for strategies for different pay tables of the same game is not as great as different game strategies.
  • Care should be taken to understand the impact of using a different strategy before committing to using it.
  • Players should decide for themselves what strategy to play – or whether to play an inferior game at all.
June 4, 2024

By Jerry Stich

Jerry "Stickman" Stich
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Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

Jerry Stich
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It’s easy to stay at one of the new, shimmering casinos on the Las Vegas Strip or thereabouts. And we’re advocates for doing just that. 

The Fontainebleau, for example, is new, cushy and compelling. Opened late last year, it features a state-of-the-art spa, fabulous restaurants (La Fontaine is a terrific Frenchified spot for gourmet dining) and a nightclub that will have you dancing all night. 

But, also, there is something to be said for checking into the town’s oldest joints. They tend to be comfortable, friendly, dripping with history and best bets for value hunters. Knowing where Las Vegas used to be can provide a great counterbalance to explorations of where the ever-changing city is heading next. 

Here then are four of our favorite casino/hotels that drip history and provide great experiences. 

GOLDEN GATE

Not only is this the oldest continually running gambling den in Las Vegas, but it is also a great bargain with recently renovated rooms usually going for less than $100 per night, even on the weekends. Opened in 1906, the Golden Gate was lauded for its electric lighting and steam heat. 

The city’s first phone number was installed at the Golden Gate, though gambling was temporarily put on ice – between 1910 and 1931, when the likes of poker and roulette were outlawed in the burgeoning Sin City. 

These days of course, the place, fittingly situated at 1 Fremont Street, is loaded with all the gambling you can desire. Upon checking in, don’t forget to get a gander at the display case, which features mementos from the early days.

EL CORTEZ

This is my favorite place to gamble. I love the clutch of blackjack tables located in the rear of the casino, with low limits, friendly dealers and a good-natured pit crew. 

Best of all: The single deck games that pay 3 to 2 on blackjacks (these days, the much less advantageous 6 to 5 seems to be everywhere outside of the high limit rooms). 

Located downtown, right on Fremont Street, the El Cortez was built in 1941 and billed as downtown LV’s first full-on resort. In 1945, the joint was purchased by a group of mobsters who included Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky. Tribute is now paid to Bugsy via the Cortez restaurant, Siegel’s 1941, where the prime rib special is a must-order item.

Beyond the food, the Parlor Bar puts on performances of bands playing vintage jazz that takes you back to another era. Back it up with a quick jaunt through the Cortez’s History Hallway, where black-and-white photos capture the early days of Vegas in general and the El Cortez in particular.

If you want to soak up history with comfort and style, be sure to reserve one of the hotel’s 47 original rooms. They received top to bottom renovations in 2022. No doubt, Bugsy Siegel would approve.

GOLDEN NUGGET

The Nugget, as it’s known, reigns one of the fancier places downtown and it was built to be that way, constructed at a cost of $1 million in 1946. The joint’s founder, Guy McAffee, was perfect for Vegas. He came there from nearby Los Angeles with a posse of mobster pals and a history of running illegal nightclubs after his stint as a crooked cop.

Reportedly, McAffee invited 20,000 people to the grand opening and hosted some of the highest poker games in town. Over time, though, the Golden Nugget was eventually eclipsed by places on the Vegas Strip. If it did not exactly go to seed, well, it was on the way.

In 1972, Steve Wynn came to the rescue. Taking a controlling interest, he restored the Golden Nugget back to its original luster. The place changed hands multiple times after Wynn sold it to MGM and MGM sold it to a fresh set of owners. Wynn, if nothing else, was a masterful showman, and the place retains no small amount of head-turning amenities.

Tourists come to check out the Tank Pool – loaded with sharks – and guests enjoy the $30 million swimming pool, complete with a slides that whip you through the shark tank. Thanks to Plexiglass encasement, a drop into the pool is a gamble in which you can’t lose. Goldennugget.com

THE FLAMINGO

While Guy McAffee was getting the Golden Nugget in motion, his organized crime pal Bugsy Siegel was breaking ground on a main thoroughfare that came to be known as the Las Vegas Strip. 

That’s where the Fabulous Flamingo stood. Opened in 1946, it was the third casino to be built on the Strip (first up on what would pretty much define Vegas was the El Rancho) and stood out as the costliest spot in town, constructed with a $6 million budget. 

The idea was right – put up luxurious digs (including Seigel’s penthouse, which took up the entire fourth floor), bring in top-flight entertainment (the likes of Jimmy Durante and later Wayne Newton), lure rich gamblers from around the world – but the execution must have been flawed. The Flamingo flopped in record time. By 1947, other mobsters had it under their control and Seigel took a bullet to the head in June of that year.

Flamingo Casino Las Vega

What marked the end of Seigel also seemed to mark the beginning of the Flamingo and high-end Vegas as we now know it. The property turned over $4 million in profit during 1948 and Vegas proved to be fertile ground for organized crime.

While the Flamingo has switched ownership a number of times – one of the bosses, in 1953, added the Champagne Tower, which was fronted with bubbling neon – it is now in the hands of Caesars Entertainment and rules as the oldest, still-operating casino on the Strip. 

The tropical themed pool remains in full effect and the spirit of Hunter S. Thompson, who stayed there while reporting “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas,” still haunts some of the rooms. Speaking of which, the Fab Rooms are the oldest and most loaded with history (a plus or minus, depending on how you see things) and high-floor Flamingo rooms are the pinkest and newest and offer views of the flamingo loaded Habitat. 

Where would I stay? Like a blackjack player dealt a pair of Aces, I’d split ‘em, and spend half of my time in each room.

June 3, 2024

By Michael Kaplan

Michael Kaplan
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    Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He has written extensively on gambling for publications such as Wired, Playboy, Cigar Aficionado, New York Post and New York Times. He is the author of four books including Aces and Kings: Inside Stories and Million-Dollar Strategies from Poker’s Greatest Players.

    He’s been known to do a bit of gambling when the timing seems right.

    Michael Kaplan
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    Progressive video poker offers benefits and challenges for players. One of the major challenges is determining the return at a specific level of the jackpot. This articles explores that aspects of the game.

    Contents

    1. Overview of progressive video poker
    2. Returns of sample progressive games
    3. Analysis of tables
    4. Cautions
    5. Summary

    1 – Overview of progressive video poker

    In a progressive game, one or more lines of the pay table increases as the game is played. The most common pay line is the royal flush. 

    At reset value, the royal flush pays the same as a non-progressive – 4,000-for-5. As the game (or linked bank of games in a casino) is played, part of the amount bet goes towards increasing the amount paid when the jackpot is hit. Once a royal flush (or other progressive jackpot hand) is hit, the amount paid is returned to the reset value.

    To finance the increasing progressive jackpot line(s), one or more other pay lines are reduced. Usually, the full house and flush pays are decreased by one each. This amounts to an overall decrease in return at reset value of about 2.5 percent.

    The major benefit of progressive games is returns can become very high. While uncommon, the jackpot for a royal flush – normally set at 4,000-for-5 – has been known to get to more than triple that or 12,000-for-5. 

    One of the major challenges, however, is knowing the actual return of the game. Most serious players avoid progressives if the return is under 100%. But how can one know the jackpot required for a 100 percent return? 

    2 – Returns of sample progressive games

    This section list a few of the more popular progressive video poker casino games and shows the average returns at various progressive jackpot levels. 

    Explanation of table information:

    • Each table starts at the reset value of 4,000 and increases by 1,000 until the 100% return mark (which is included as a separate line). From there, jackpot values are increased by 500 until 12,000 is reached. This is three times the reset value.
    • The base return is a typical return, but the pay tables of progressives vary significantly between and even within casinos. 
    • The Royal Flush (RF) jackpot is in credits paid for five credits bet. 
    • Return percent is the average return at the listed RF Jackpot.
    • Change is the change (increase) in the return from the previous level (except for the 100% return level – yellow).
    • The variance is listed for the reset value, the 100% level and three times the reset value.

    Progressive Video Poker Returns for 8/5 Jacks or Better

    RF JackpotReturn %ChangeVariance
    4,00097.30 19.32
    5,00097.800.50% 
    6,00098.380.58% 
    7,00098.980.60% 
    8,00099.590.61% 
    8,700100.02 96.27
    9,500100.510.31% 
    10,000100.820.31% 
    10,500101.130.31% 
    11,000101.450.32% 
    11,500101.780.31% 
    12,000102.070.31%184.34

    Progressive Video Poker Returns for 7/5 Bonus Poker

    RF JackpotReturn %ChangeVariance
    4,00098.01 20.75
    5,00098.530.52% 
    6,00099.090.56% 
    7,00099.680.59% 
    7,550100.02 74.09
    8,000100.290.61% 
    8,500100.600.31% 
    9,000100.900.30% 
    9,500101.210.31% 
    10,000101.520.31% 
    10,500101.840.32% 
    11,000102.150.31% 
    11,500102.460.31% 
    12,000102.780.32%186.19

    Progressive Video Poker Returns for 9/6 Double Bonus Poker

    RF JackpotReturn %ChangeVariance
    4,00097.81 30.78
    5,00098.340.53% 
    6,00098.900.56% 
    7,00099.490.59% 
    7,850100.00 89.73
    8,500100.400.31% 
    9,000100.700.30% 
    9,500101.010.31% 
    10,000101.320.31% 
    10,500101.620.30% 
    11,000101.930.31% 
    11,500102.250.32% 
    12,000102.560.31%194.95
     

    Progressive Video Poker Returns for 8/6 Dbl-Dbl Bonus Poker

    RF JackpotReturn %ChangeVariance
    4,00097.89 41.85
    5,00098.430.54% 
    6,00099.010.58% 
    7,00099.590.58% 
    7,700100.01 98.30
    8,000100.190.60% 
    8,500100.500.31% 
    9,000100.810.31% 
    9,500101.130.32% 
    10,000101.440.31% 
    10,500101.750.31% 
    11,000102.070.32% 
    11,500102.380.31% 
    12,000102.700.32%207.91

    Progressive Video Poker Returns-Deuces Wild 25/15/11/4/3/3/2/1

    RF JackpotReturn %ChangeVariance
    4,00097.39 25.36
    5,00097.860.47% 
    6,00098.360.50% 
    7,00098.870.51% 
    8,00099.400.53% 
    9,00099.930.53% 
    9,150100.01 99.19
    9,500100.190.26% 
    10,000100.460.27% 
    10,500100.720.26% 
    11,000100.990.27% 
    11,500101.250.26% 
    12,000101.520.27%163.43

    3 – Analysis of tables

    There are several similarities in all the tables.

    In all non-wild card games:

    The 100% return point is reached between 7,500 and 8,700 credits. The difference is caused by the reset value return. The lower returns have a higher 100% level than the higher reset value returns.

    There is a roughly 0.3% increase in return for each 500-credit increase in royal flush jackpot

    In the Deuces Wild game:

    The 100% return level is reached at just over 9,000 credits in the royal flush jackpot.

    In the Deuces Wild game, the increase is approximately 0.26% for each 500-credit increase in the royal flush jackpot.

    To determine the approximate point where the game returns 100% return, the return of the reset-value game must be known. This information is available online for most games and pay tables. 

    Once you have that, simply subtract the reset-value return percentage from 100 and divide that by 0.60 (the percent increase per 1,000-credit increase in the jackpot). This is the approximate thousands to add to 4,000 to get the 100% return jackpot value.

    • Ex: for the 8/5 Jacks or Better game, the reset-value return is 97.30. 100 – 97.30 = 2.70. Divide this by 0.60 = 4.5. 4,000 + 4,500 = 8,500. This is approximate – but close.

    From that point, (or from any point where the return is known) each increase of 500 raises the return by approximately 0.3 percent.

    4 – Cautions

    Playing a progressive game is different from playing a standard game. Please go here for more detailed information: Best Video Poker Games to Play | Ultimate Guide to Video Poker.

    The major points in that link are:

    • The variance increases as the royal flush jackpot increases. This means bankroll requirement are higher.
    • Many others will be playing for the same high jackpot. If there are five or seven or nine other players going after the same target, chances are against you being the victor.
    • The return percentages are based on optimal play, meaning the playing strategy changes as the royal flush jackpot increases. Changing strategy on the fly is difficult to do accurately.

    One final caution, when you see a seemingly high royal flush jackpot, make sure the total credits required to get that jackpot is five. I have seen many progressive games with great looking jackpots that require 10 credits to trigger the royal flush jackpot. 

    Observation is a key to successful video poker play.

    5 – Summary 

    • The 100% return point of a progressive game can be estimated.
    • The total return of a progressive game can also be estimated.
    • There are other things beside the return to consider when playing a progressive game with a high jackpot value: other players, variance, bankroll requirements, and strategy changes are a few. 
    May 30, 2024

    By Jerry Stich

    Jerry "Stickman" Stich
    Body

    Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

    Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

    Jerry Stich
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    Giving players the games they want is part of the business for casino operators, and plenty of players have made clear they want craps. Through the 1940s and '50s it was the most popular casino table game in the United States before it was overtaken by blackjack in the 1960s.

    But some jurisdictions don't permit dice games, with California being the leading example. What's an operator to do?

    In California and some Native American casinos in other states, one solution has been Card Craps, in which playing cards take the place of dice. The craps substitute is  uncommon in online casinos, where images of dice, or occasionally, streaming video of live hands are used.

    The Cards

    Translating craps to a card format takes some adjustment. A dealer turns up one two-card hand instead of a shooter rolling two dice. To mimic six-sided dice, only six card denominations are used: Aces, 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s and 6s.

    Card Craps can be dealt with as few as two such six-card decks. To do so, each deck is shuffled separately. Usually different colored card backs are used so the dealer knows which cards go together.

    With that method, there is a 1 in 6 chance of any number being dealt from each deck. That parallels the 1 in 6 chance of any number coming up on each die in traditional craps. 

    That makes the two-card odds the same as two-dice odds. Available bets and payoffs can be the same with cards as with dice.

    Multiple Decks

    Some casinos use more cards, with multiple decks shuffled together, One common method is to use 24-card decks, with each denomination in clubs, hearts, spades, and diamonds.

    To best approximate the odds of traditional craps, multiple decks must be used. That's because of the effect of removal from play for each card dealt.

    With dice, if the first die lands on a 4, the chance of the second die then landing on a 4 is 1 in 6. If cards are used instead and only a 24-card single deck is in play, if the first card is a 4, there are only three fours the remaining 23 cards. That makes the chance of drawing a second 4 only 1 in 7.67, meaning a hard 8 consisting of 4-4 would occur less often in Card Craps than traditional craps.

    In order to adjust, many decks are used. If six decks are used, there are a total of 264 cards, with 44 of each denomination. Then, if a 4 is dealt on the first card, the chance of a 4 on the second is 43 in 263, or 1 in 6.12, much closer to the 1 in 6 odds with a second die.

    Casinos can vary how many decks they use, but six decks and 264 cards yields a good approximation of the dice game, with some small differences in odds and payoffs.

    Layout & Gameplay

    As in regular craps, a table felt is marked off with available wagers, including pass, don't pass, come, don't come, point numbers for place bets, the field, hardways, and one-hand propositions such as any craps or any seven.

    Players can make pass, don't pass, come or don't come wagers by putting their chips in the designated areas. They also can back pass bets with free odds and lay odds on don't pass bets by putting their chips behind those wagers.

    For odds on come and don't come and for all other bets, players must put their chips on the layout and tell the dealer what bets they want to make.

    Craps Table

    The Wagers

    Single-hand bets – the Card Craps equivalent of one-roll propositions with dice –  are simple no matter what the format. If you bet any 7, you win on if the two cards or two dice total 7 and lose on any other total. If you bet on any craps, you win if the two cards total 2, 3 or 12 and lose on anything else.

    You pay a high price for single-hand bets being easy to track. House edges are higher than on more complicated wagers that take multiple hands to decide.

    In Card Craps games that use two six-card decks shuffled separately,  the house edge is 13.89 percent o 2 or 12, with a 30-1 payoff on winners; 11.11 percent on 3 or 11, with 15-1 pay; 11.11 percent on any craps, where you win on 2, 3 or 12 and which pays 15-1, and a whopping 16.67 percent on any 7, which pays 4-1.

    The one-hand wager with the lowest house edge is the field. You win even money if the hand is 3, 4, 9, 10 or 11. You also win on 2 or 12. Minimum payout is 2-1, and many casinos raise that to 3-1 on one of those numbers. The house edge is 5.56 percent if 2 and 12 both pay 2-1, or a more playable 2.78 percent if one of them pays 3-1.

    But the lowest house edges come on wagers that take multiple hands to decide. Let's look at how some of the most frequent wagers work. For a complete look at how craps bets and odds work with dice or the separate decks method at Card Craps, see 888's "Ultimate Craps Strategy Guide."

    Pass

    Make a bet before a sequence starts with a comeout. If the dealer turns up a two-card total of  7 or 11 on the comeout, you win, but if the hand is 2, 3 or 12 you lose. If the comeout is any other number, it becomes the point. 

    Once a point is established, you win only when the dealer repeats that total with a subsequent hand before turning up a 7. If a 7 comes first, you lose. No other totals matter. If the point is 9 and the following hands are 11, 8, 2, 5 and so on, your bet stays in action until you either win with a 9 or lose with a 7. The payoff on all winners is even money.

    Come

    This works the same way as pass, except the betting sequence starts on any hand, not just on the comeout. The hand after you make the bet becomes the equivalent of the comeout for the come bet, and from there action proceeds just as on the pass bet. The payoff on all winners is even money.

    Don't pass

    This is nearly the opposite of pass, except on the comeout, you don't win on 12. Instead, 12 pushes and you get your money back. Otherwise, it's the flip side of pass. On the comeout, you win on 2 or 3 and lose on 7 or 11. Once a point is established, you win if a 7 turns up first and lose if the point  number is repeated. The payoff on all winners is even money.

    Don't come

    The near opposite of come, this is the same as don't pass except you can make it on any hand, not just on the hand that would be a comeout for pass or don't pass. The payoff on all winners is 2-1.

    Free odds

    You can back pass or come bets with free odds after a point is established. On winners, the odds bet is paid at true odds, so 6s and 8s pay 6-5, 5s and 9s pay 3-2 and 4s and 10s pay 2-1.

     In California, some casinos allow up to 5x odds meaning you can make an odds bet up to five times your pass or come bet. Keeping your pass or come bet low and saving the larger share of your bet for free odds lowers the overall house edge.

    Lay odds

    You can back don't pass or don't come bets by laying odds after a point is established. You must spot the house the true odds, so you payoffs are 5-6 on 6 or 8, 2-3 on 5 or 9 and 1-2 on 4 or 10. There is no house edge when laying odds.

    The plus in laying odds comes when you keep your don't pass or don't come bet low to save money for the odds. Then, you bet the least on the comeout when you have only three ways to win (one way to make 2, two ways to make 3) and eight ways to lose (six ways to make 7, two ways to make 11). Your bigger bets come after there's a point, when don't players win more often than they lose.

    Place bets

    You can bet on 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10. If your number is dealt before a  7, you win. If a 7 comes first, you lose. Payoffs are 7-6 on 6 or 8, 7-5 on 5 or 9, or 9-5 on 4 or 10.

    Difference When Decks Are Shuffled Together

    As noted earlier, the effect of card removal alters the odds when all cards are shuffled together instead of dealt from separate decks. At wizardofodds.com, Michael Shackelford calculates that in a Card Craps game with 264 cards shuffled together, the house edge on pass bets is 1.36 percent instead of the 1.41 using two dice or two separately shuffled six-card decks. The edge on don't pass is 1.37 percent instead of 1.36 percent.

    Here's a list of major multi-hand (or multi-roll) wagers with their payoffs, house edge with 264 cards and house edge with either two dice or two separate six-card decks.

     

    WagerPayoffHouse edge, 264 cardsHouse edge, 2 dice or 2 separate 6-card decks
    Pass or come1-11.36%1.41%
    Don't pass or don't come1-11.37%1.36%
    Odds, 4 or 102-10.51%0
    Odds, 5 or 93-200
    Odds, 6 or 86-50.25%0
    Lay odds, 4 or 101-2-0.25%0
    Lay odds, 5 or 92-300
    Lay odds, 6 or 85-6-0.21%0
    Place 4 or 109-57.14%6.67%
    Place 5 or 97-54%4%
    Place 6 or 87-61.76%1.52%

    Note that you get a slightly better deal on pass or come with 264 cards shuffled together than with two dice or two six-card decks, but the house edge is a big higher on don't pass, don't come and place bets on 4 or 10 and 6 or 8.

    In standard craps, free odds have no house edge, but there the house does have an advantage on 4 or 10 or 6  or 8 in the 264-card method. There's a tradeoff on lay odds. The minus sign on 4 or 10 and 6 or 8 signifies a house disadvantage. The player has an edge in laying odds on those numbers, though you still must face the house edge on don't pass or don't come to get that deal.

    Conclusion

    Card Craps can't give you the same hands-on feeling of rolling the dice yourself, but it does closely mimic the odds and gameplay of the real thing. In jurisdictions where dice games aren't licensed, it's a worthy take on a player favorite.

    Check out additional craps tip from 888casino to learn more about the game.
     

    May 17, 2024

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski
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    Player choices make a difference in blackjack, regardless of whether you're playing online blackjack or in a live casino. That's one of the keys to the game's long-standing popularity.

    The most obvious choices that make a difference come in blackjack strategy. Do you hit or stand. Should you double down? Should you split a pair? 

    Basic strategy can be your guide to those options, but there are choices beyond playing strategy that make a difference in your chances to win or lose.

     Is it better to play at a crowded table or an empty one? Are fewer decks always better for players? Those are among the choices players face in addition to blackjack strategy once the game is underway.

    Let's explore some of the decisions blackjack players must make.

    Is It Better to Play at a Crowded Table or an Empty One?

    Some players love the social experience of playing at the same table as others. Some like to go solo and neither interact with anyone but the dealer nor fret over whether bad decisions by others will affect their hands.

    Never mind that bad plays by others help you just as often as they hurt you and are best ignored. The times they hurt gall some players enough they'd rather avoid the issue.

    But an important factor is speed of play. When there are fewer players at the table, the game moves faster. It takes less time to deal the cards, play the hands and settle the bets.

    Jim Kilby, in his highly regarded text "Casino Operations Management," listed average hands per hour at 52 at a full seven-player blackjack table, 60 with six players, 70 with five, 84 with four, 105 with three, 139 with two and 209 with a single player. Those are averages, variables with dealer speed and the time it takes players to make decisions.

    In online casinos, where dealing and settling bets is nearly instantaneous, the game moves even faster. It's possible for a player to reach 500 hands per hour.

    Faster games favor whoever has the mathematical edge on the game. That's the house in nearly all cases. Some skilled card counters who have an edge benefit by a faster game, but for most players, more hands per hour mean more bets, bigger risks and on average, larger losses.

    In live casinos, your average losses per hour are lower if you play with more players. When playing online, it's in your best interest to slow the game down and take some time over your decisions. 

    Are Fewer Decks Always the Better Choice?

    If all other rules are equal, the house edge is lower when fewer decks are in play. That's mainly because blackjacks are more frequent with fewer decks. Players are paid 3-2 on blackjacks in better games or 6-5 in games to avoid. There is no such bonus payoff for the house. The house collects only your original bet if the dealer has a blackjack.

    Why are blackjacks with fewer decks more common? Imagine this scenario. Your first card is an Ace and you need a 10-value card to make blackjack. In a single-deck game, 16 of the other 51 cards are 10-values, or 31.4 percent.

    With six decks, 96 of the other 311 cards, or 30.9 percent, are 10 values. You make the blackjack more often in the single-deck game.

    However, blackjack comes with a set of mix-and-match rules, and a six-deck game can have a lower house edge than a single deck game if it has more favorable rules.

    If a single-deck and a six-deck game each have the dealer hit soft 17, allow double downs on any first two cards, allow double downs after splitting pairs and allow Aces to be split only once with one card dealt to each Ace, and allow other pairs to be split up to three times to make four hands, the house edge against a basic strategy player is a negligible 0.008 percent in the one-deck game, but much larger at 0.62 percent with six decks.

    However, if the single-deck game restricts double downs to two-card totals of 10 or 11, does not allow doubles after splits, and allows pairs to be split only once, the house edge climbs to 0.45 percent. And if the six-deck game has the dealer stand all 17s, including soft hands,  the edge drops to 0.40 percent.

    Players must look at the full set of rules in play. In isolation, fewer decks give you a better game, but other rules can make it worth your while to play with more decks.

    Blackjach hand

    Is it Better to Play a $5 Table Where Dealer Hits Soft 17 or $10 Table Where Dealer Stands on All 17s?

    Whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17 is one of the most important of the mix-and-match rules described above.

    Having the dealer hit soft 17 adds about 0.22 percent to the house edge against a basic strategy player. You can see that in the previous section where the six-deck game described has a 0.62 edge if the dealer hits soft 17 and only 0.4 if the dealer stands.

    But is it worth risking more money to get the better rule? 

    At a full seven-player table moving at 50 hands per hour, a $5 bettor risks an average of $250 per house, while a $10 player risks $500.

    In the six-deck game with a 0.62 percent house edge, average losses for the $5 bettor would be $15.50 per hour.

    The $10 bettor at the table where the dealer stands on all 17s faces a lower edge at 0.40 percent, but with the higher wager total, average losses come to $20 per hour.

    The lower house edge gives the $10 bettor an improved shot to win,  but the difference in house edge isn't enough to negate the bigger bets. The house edge matters, but so does your bankroll and your bet size.

    Does it Help to Play More Than One Hand at a Time?

    For card counters who have an edge over the house, playing multiple hands when the count is strongly positive can be beneficial in good times.

    For basic strategy players or average players, playing multiple hands doesn't dent the house edge at all.

    If you keep the total wager of playing two hands at the same size as your normal one-hand wager, your average losses will be the same either way. Averages and odds on two $10 bets are the same as on one $20 bet. 

    If you bet more by making multiple bets, then your average losses will be higher than if you stayed with one bet. You may like the feeling that playing multiple hands might smooth out volatility and give you more shots to win per deal, but that doesn't change the math. 

    Things are different for a card counter, but average players who like to play multiple hands must be careful not to boost their overall bets and overextend their bankrolls.

    May 15, 2024

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski
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    As most casino gamblers know, the odds of winning one of winning a jackpot with six, even, or eight figures is almost infinitesimal. Those eye-popping payouts may make plenty of headlines, but like the lottery the odds are extremely long.

    And winning on those major progressive machines comes with even longer odds and can cost players even higher amounts to wager. The house has an edge in most games, but even more so when it comes to slot play in a live casino.

    “Each game you play at a casino has a statistical probability against you winning,” Investopedia notes. “Slot machine odds are some of the worst, ranging from a one-in-5,000 to one-in-about-34-million chance of winning the top prize when using the maximum coin play.”

    But people do win – and some actually have the good fortune of winning a jackpot more than once. Elmer Sherwin may be one of the best examples of completing a double jackpot. In 2005, the 92-year-old World War II veteran chalked up his second mega jackpot after winning $21.1 million on a Megabucks at Cannery Casino in North Las Vegas.

    In 1989, Sherwin also scored a $4.6 million payday on a Megabucks machine at the Mirage in Las Vegas. Winning that second jackpot had fulfilled a lifetime goal.

    “I'm glad I finally hit,” Sherwin said. “I've been trying to do it again.”

    Some slot players recently at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, have ramped up the jackpot winning as well. Over the last year, several players have recorded multiple jackpots, some cashing in for even more than two. Here’s a look at some of these players who have really cashed in.

    Slot-Playing ‘Caesars’

    Caesars Palace was unveiled in 1966 with plenty of fanfare. The property offered the best of the best for casino visitors from dining to shows to suites and more. The property has hosted some huge events over the years, including an attempt by daredevil Evel Knievel to jump his motorcycle 141 feet over the casino’s signature fountains. That didn’t end well.

     Caesars has also been known for matches featuring some legendary boxers, including Muhammed Ali, Marvin Hagler, and Sugar Ray Leonard. The property has also hosted tennis matches with players like Jimmy Connors as well as the Caesars Palace Grand Prix.

    The name Caesars Palace was meant not only to showcase the Roman theme, but also meant to allow players to live and feel like caesars themselves. And some recent slot machine players were probably feeling like Roman royalty after hitting multiple jackpots over the last year.

    On March 26, one lucky player recorded a $125,000 jackpot at 9:30 p.m. Less than two hours at around 11 p.m., this same gambler chalked up another jackpot of $383,500. At about 12:30 a.m., Lady Luck smiled on the slot player again for another $159,250. The three- hour winning streak saw the slot fan walk away with $667,750.

    Caesars Palace

    Even More Multiple Jackpot Winners

    A winning run like that couldn’t possibly happen again, right? Wrong. Recent history has seen even more players cash in several times on trips to Caesars Palace, an unlikely run of paydays at the property.

    In August, another Caesars visitor recorded a staggering number of jackpots – a total of 10 over two days for a haul of $2.1 million. The winning began on Aug. 18 with five jackpots totaling $1 million. The lucrative vacation continued the next day with five more jackpots for another $1.1 million. Most players would be pretty excited about seeing double-digit payouts for a total of $2.1 million. The experience made for quite a Las Vegas getaway.

    These two fortunate reel spinners no doubt had some wide smiles on their faces, but weren’t the only Caesars multi-winners over the last year. 

    In July, a player took down three slot jackpots in a single day between slots and video poker. Over a Friday and Saturday, this player’s slot play brought a $100,000 payday. If that weren’t enough, this winner also played some video poker and grabbed two more payouts of $200,000 and $100,000 for a smooth total of $300,000.

    In March of this year, Caesars saw yet another double-jackpot winner – scoring $165,000 on the first win and an even better $545,000 at a different machine just a few hours later. This was quite a day, with winning to the tune of $710,000.

    Cashing In

    Most gamblers would be envious of these kinds of trips to the casino. But these winning streaks are highly unlikely, especially considering it’s already highly unlikely to win these types of major scores.

    Slot manufacturers are a bit secretive when it comes to the odds of cashing in on some of the game’s biggest jackpots, but the chances get up to one in millions.

    “Progressive slots are a good example of high variance games,” Untamed Science reports. “The cumulative jackpots available can regularly exceed a million dollars, but winners only ever crop up every few months or even years.”

    Some of those odds are as high as one in 100 million, according to some reports. This makes these types of multiple payouts at Caesars even more unlikely – the odds are just so stacked against a player finding these kinds of winnings. But a game’s random number generator keeps payouts at random.

    While one game can see long periods of time between major payouts, others may pay out several jackpots over a shorter length of time. These slot winners just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

    May 13, 2024

    By Sean Chaffin

    Sean Chaffin
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    Sean Chaffin is a full-time freelance writer based in Ruidoso, New Mexico. He covers poker, gambling, the casino industry, and numerous other topics. Follow him on Twitter at @PokerTraditions and email him at seanchaffin@sbcglobal.net.

    Sean Chaffin
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