Serious casino gamblers understand the concept of the return of casino games. Simply put, it is the amount of money bet while playing a casino game that is returned to the player. 

Most also understand that the return percentages given are mathematically calculated and are based on an infinite number of bets. They understand the short-term return percentages can vary significantly from the mathematically calculated long-term return percentages.

Few gamblers understand how the transition from short-term to long-term results works. Many gamblers, systems sellers, and pundits also do not understand this phenomenon. 

Is any casino game ever due? Read on to find out.

Contents

1. Why do people feel casino games are due?
2. Definition of random games
3. Definition of due
4. The fallacy of a casino game being due
5. Summary

Why do people feel casino games are due?

As explained in the introduction, return from casino games can, in the short-run, vary dramatically from the mathematically calculated return percentage. 

Take the simple example of flipping a coin. A player can bet on either heads or tails showing. A bet on the correct result pays even money. A coin can end up heads or tails. There is a mathematically calculated return of 100% in a fair flip since with an infinite number of flips both heads and tails should appear equally. The player wins one dollar on half the bets and loses one dollar on the other half the bets.

Here is an example. The player always bets one dollar on heads. If a head shows, the player wins one dollar. If a tail shows, the player loses one dollar. Here is a sample run.

• Heads – return is 100% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $1)
• Heads – return is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
• Heads – return is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)
• Tails – return is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
• Heads – return is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)

How about a more complex example? This is not a casino game but illustrates a point.

There are four red balls and one black ball ball in a bag. The player bets one dollar. A random ball is pulled out of the bag. If it is a red ball, and red was bet, the player wins one dollar. If it is a black ball and black was bet, the player wins four dollars since a red ball is four times as likely as a black ball. The calculated return on this game is also 100%. Here is a sample run. 

• Black – return is 400 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $4)
• Black – return is 800 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $8)
• Black – return is 1200 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $12)
• Black – return is 1600 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $16)

In both cases, the player is up more than the mathematical average. 

It seems logical that in the first case tails are due and in the second case red is due. This is the basis for the “due theory” in gambling. But, are tails or red truly due?

Definition of random games

Casino games are all classified as random games. This is accomplished by a randomizing method for table games, such as shuffling the card deck or randomly releasing a ball onto a spinning roulette wheel. On slot machines or video poker a computer software routine called a Random Number Generator or RNG is used. 

What is the definition of random? According to Merriam-Webster, random means lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern. In the case of casino games, random means there is no pattern. Outcomes cannot be predicted.

Definition of due

Merriam-Webster lists several definitions of the adverb, due.  “Required or expected in the prescribed, normal, or logical course of events: scheduled” applies to casino games.

The fallacy of a casino game being due

In both sample runs in section one, return percentage is skewed in favor of the player. The problem with thinking that something is due is the fact that by the very definitions of random (no pattern/cannot be predicted) and due (scheduled) nothing can be considered due in a casino game.

Almost every betting system touted by pundits and sold by systems sellers is based on the false assumption that something is due. One example is waiting until red has not appeared on a roulette table for 10 or 15 times, then bet red.

Because the specified event is random, it cannot be predicted. Black (or green) could appear for the next 20 or 25 spins of the wheel.

It works the other way also. In video poker, royal flushes occur once every 40,000 or so hands. But that does not mean that a player must wait 40,000 hands for the next royal flush. They can occur back-to-back … -to-back. It is unlikely, but possible in a random game.

Summary 

The feeling among gamblers that some event is due in a casino game is very common. When slot machine players feed bill after bill into the machine only to have it quickly gobbled up by the machine, it seems logical to feel that some wins are coming.

When someone touts a betting system based on a certain event either happening or not happening, it seems logical that the system should work. Most often those systems do work – for a while. Ultimately, however, even the most logical-sounding betting system will fail and cause substantial losses simply because players are betting on a random event.

Believing that something is due in a casino game is not bad – in itself. What is bad is taking action that causes you to bet more money chasing this (false) due event. 

Do not let logical-sounding but false ideas alter your normal, controlled play in the casino.

Walk through a brick-and-mortar casino or log on to 888casino and the slot machines are impossible to miss. Chinese themed Zodiac Lantern Rabbit, the enticing Cash Eruption and jewel-centric Sapphire Spin are all amazingly alluring. They’re the games you want to play for quick spurts of gambling satisfaction and potential cash payouts.

But what is inside these flashy sirens of the gambling world and how do they work?

Early Slots

Back in the day, before slot machines were computerized and when they truly lived up to their “one armed bandit” nickname, the machines were purely mechanical. Fittingly then, the first slot machine was fashioned by a San Francisco, California, auto mechanic named Charles Fey. 

Known as the Liberty Bell, it hit American barrooms in the late 1800s with three motorized reels and paid out 50 cents when three Liberty Bells stopped at the same time. Other images on the reels were hearts, diamonds and spades, just like in a deck of cards, which, no doubt, got the juices of gamblers flowing.

For decades to come, Fey’s invention served as the slot machine paradigm. Refinements – such as a mechanism for recognizing counterfeit coins and splashy glass fronts with themes that made the gambling devices all-the-more eye-catching – were implemented, but it was the insertion of video capabilities that changed everything and brought slot machines into the modern era.

Computers in Slots

That began in 1975 when a machine called Fortune Coin turned heads on casino floors. Gamblers lined up to play that first slot machine as it operated on a computer screen.

Twenty years later, the Odyssey machine had a mega-sized screen and made players feel like they were gambling on a high-tech TV. Sound and video cards inside the Odyssey models provided bells and whistles on the outside.

But it was the implementation of computer chips that made slot machine interiors come to resemble those of Mac Book Pros. Such upgrades allowed the games to step up to 21st century standards.

These days, the inner workings of your favorite slot machines are driven by the chips and circuit boards that allow the outsides to be visually compelling and a hell of a lot of fun to play.

Random Number Generator

Dominating the guts of every slot machine is the random number generator, also known as the RNG. It’s a nifty piece of technology that keeps the machine in line and makes players happy. The random number generator guarantees that the slot pays off exactly as it is supposed to.

Let’s say that a machine is promoted as having a 95% payout (or a 5% hold; i.e., the money that is kept by the casino), the RNG insures that it happens over time. This means that on average, over the course of millions of spins, the machine will keep 5 cents for every dollar put in.

In the short term, however, it can hold a lot more or a lot less. A strong desire for the latter, of course, is what keeps us playing.

The RNG is continually coming up with series of numbers that translate into the outcome of a slot machine play.

It does that many times per second and never stops. It’s complicated for a three-reel or five-reel machine and even more so when there are, say, 25 paylines, as is the case with Saved By The Bells. But the RNG never stops calculating and locks in as soon as the machine handle is pulled or the play button is pressed.

At that point the machine knows the outcome. But, via the deployment of sound and video, the information is revealed to players in exciting but efficient manners. Usually, it’s accented with shimmers of gleaming visual effects and synthesized audio to indicate a winner. For that we can thank the sound and video cards tucked inside the slot machine.

Money Matters

At brick-and-mortar casinos, money to facilitate the play is usually inserted via bill readers, like the ones that we use in supermarkets. This sucks in the cash and scans your Benjamins to make sure they are not counterfeit. Online, of course, the funds are kept on account and the process is all done digitally.

Hit a jackpot online and you get to celebrate at home in whatever manner best suits you. 

Hit one in a live casino, and, depending on the jurisdiction, the machine’s inner workings contain a program to do a few things. In Nevada, for example, if the win exceeds $1,200, the machine’s interior computer sets it into what is known as “jackpot lockdown.”

This means that the machine essentially freezes until a few things get sorted out. For starters, a casino employee comes over so that the win can be confirmed, the player’s identity can be verified and the all-important payoff can take place. Next, a tax form is filled out so that the US government gets its share of the windfall.

For more modest wins, machines that used to settle-up with showers of coins now do it the modern way. Inside the machine is a thermal printer, which spits out a receipt – not unlike what we get at the ATM – that can be redeemed for cash. 

All players hope to experience the thermal printer in action – it means that you won! – but what you won’t have to deal with are certain features inside the machine that are only for casino managers that oversee slots action.

Activated by a key inserted into the machine, there is a touchscreen that shows how much money has been gambled on the machine and how much has been paid off. In the event of a dispute over the outcome of a spin, there is also an interior program that can replay recent spins. They are used to settle any disagreements.

Looking Ahead

While there is no doubt that slot machines are state of the art and getting to be even more so – especially as they move up to their next level and become increasingly like video games of skill – there are some components that remain much like the games that were rigged up by ingenious Charles Fey back in the late 1800s. 

As one veteran slot machine designer put it during a gaming conference in Germany, “As long as you keep the essential slot machine DNA, you can create whatever experience your player needs to have.”

Surely, his fellow designers would agree with that line of thinking, and the inner workings of state-of-the-art slot machines, whether played in a Vegas gambling spot or online via 888casino, will bear that out with increasing complexity.

The famous fashionista Tim Gunn has a theory about why today’s civilized folks  aren’t quite so civilized after all. His theory can be filed under the heading of “the  slobbification” of our world. Or some such title. 

Today’s citizens of the United States and, perhaps, England, just don’t have a  fashion sense the way they used to. Even the poor had “Sunday, go to meeting  clothes.” Heck, Easter Sunday saw thousands of well-dressed folks frolicking down  Fifth Avenue in New York City – and many of these people, those taking part in  the parade, were not rich. They were, shall I say? All of us! 

Do you remember the movie scenes where they showed folks who were highly  dressed to participate in or to be involved in adult activities?  

In the casinos the players wore suits and ties and the rich folks wore gowns or  fashionable dresses; the men wore tuxedoes. Yes, now sing the following verse,  “those were the days my friends we thought they’d never end.” 

Check out film clips of baseball games or boxing matches or most other sports and  theatre and movies and you’ll see that most of the fans or attendees wore suits  and ties (no less) and, if they were women, they wore dresses.  

In short, you had to dress up to go out. That was considered proper for going out  on the town. “You didn’t,” as my mother said, “want to dress like a bum.” 

Sometime after World War II – maybe late 1950s – we started to see a slight  change in dressing decorum. Here and there would be men not wearing suits and  ties here and there and some women who wore (heaven help us!) pants. It was  beginning back then.  

In short, a new world was budding right before our eyes. Most of us (when young) didn’t notice it or pay it any mind. Our mothers saw to that. 

By the end of the 1960s, all hell broke loose. Boys in their teens and 20s were  wearing long, unkempt hair, earrings, nose rings, and the girls? Heaven forbid what you saw them in or out of – and you saw them not wearing “Sunday, go to  meeting clothes!” for sure. 

Adults still held the line … for a while. But in the 1980s, no one wore suits and ties  to ball games or the casinos and, heaven forfend, teachers often didn’t wear suits  and ties in their classrooms! 

Women wore pants everywhere; children started to become (how can I say this?)  somewhat deranged – they threw fits seemingly for no reason. The world of  parenting was becoming a world of “I’m friends with my children” and “isn’t he  cute throwing that fit?” What? What? My mother, and father, would belt me if I  behaved like that. 

The 1990s? This was obvious that the world I loved most – the world of the  casinos – had undergone a radical change. 

Dressing up? Nonsense. Rare to see someone in a tux – unless he was getting  married. Maybe not even then. She? It was hard to not try to catch a peek under  the wedding dress; it was that short. (Being a well-trained, good man, I  refrained ... well, mostly.) 

Tim Gunn has put the correct label on our age – it is the age of slobbification.  Everything that was nice, that was elegant, has been “slobbified” by, well, slobs. Each and every one of us who dresses down is a slob – period.  

Take the guy in the stained short-sleeved shirt coming over to the roulette table.  “What is your name sir?” “Bond, James Bond …”  

What the hell? That guy isn’t James Bond! Are you kidding? He’s just a slob! 

Ah, but he is James Bond; he’s all of today’s James Bonds. He is now entering the  casinos. What is special about this James Bond? Sadly, truly, nothing. He is not to  be held up as a role model for men – that’s for sure. His license to kill has expired. No secret service would want this guy working for them – would they? Seriously,  would they?

[Men: This is especially for you. Did you practice being Bond, “James” Bond? Yeah,  I did. Somewhere in my preteens, I’d stride into my bedroom and look in the mirror  and say, Scoblete, “Frank” Scoblete. 

I figured when I got old enough and I was wearing a tuxedo, and buying into a  roulette game, the girls would just melt in front of me if I could only get that  accent right – this was the real James Bond, mind you, meaning the one and only  Sean Connery. 

I was 11 or 12 way back then. And the girls? Uh, it never happened. They didn’t  flock to me when I was a teenager. Ah, the illusions of youth. James Bond; dressed  to the nines - which was a gambling term in the god old days; but I wasn’t that  man. His time was passing rather rapidly. Sad, sad. 

I didn’t realize it at the time because, well, I was a kid. Ah, the dreams of youth,  must to be destroyed by aging.]

The Pace of Today’s Roulette? 

James Bond’s roulette is not today’s roulette. Far from it. The game is far crasser. It’s also faster. And more and more players fit the slobbification definition; in fact,  in many of today’s casinos, you’d be lucky to see someone who merits  consideration for being well dressed by the past’s standards.  

Many of the players have little in the way of manners. They rush to get their chips  on the layout and time and time again as those chips scatter as they are knocked  over by other rushing players. Arguments occur not because the chips are  different but because … well, just because. 

You know something. Everyone seems a little or, worse, a lot edgy. Is that the  stress of modern life? Or just the fact that everyone seems really wired? What has  got them so wired? 

That guy over there smashing through the other players’ chips to get his bets out  faster than the superhero Flash could manage? Is he nuts? He has plenty of time.  What’s with him? And he should – after all – change his grimy short-sleeved shirt.

Some Tables 

Now, not all roulette tables are filled with rushing, pushing, aggressive and often  sweaty (smelly) players. Some tables are somewhat sedate – more like the tables  of the old movies. But those are in the distinct minority.  

There was a movie titled Speed about a bus that had been wired to keep going faster and faster until who knows? It seems to me that more and more roulette  players have been “sped up” until, well, who knows what? 

Playing fast isn’t necessarily going to make you win. In fact, the more decisions a  roulette player faces, the worse it will be for him or her as time at the tables  passes on. 

The casinos do not pay out the proper odds of the bet. And that’s the answer to  the question “how does the casino get its house edge?” 

The Truth Hurts 

There are now three roulette games in the world. The single-zero games (0); the  double-zero games (0, 00); and the abomination called the triple-zero games (0,  00, 000).  

The house edges on these games will go from 2.7% on the single-zero  game; to 5.26% on the double-zero game; and (yuck!) 7.69% on the  triple-zero game. 

A winning bet at the single-zero game pays 35 to 1. There are 37 pockets for the  ball to settle in. The odds or roulette are 36 to 1 for a given number to appear. A true payout  would therefore be 36 to 1. But the casino can’t make money by paying out the  true odds of the bet. So, it skimps and reduces the payout to 35 to 1. That creates  the 2.7% house edge on the single-zero game. 

Now, hold your stomachs friends because the payout for the double-zero wheel is  also 35 to 1! What? Yep!

The house edge now zooms up to 5.26%. You have 38 pockets for the ball to  settle into and the odds should be 37 to 1 for that to happen. But the casinos can’t  make any money if they paid out the true odds of the bet. So, they pay out the  same 35 to 1. 

It gets much worse with the triple-zero game. There are 39 pockets. That makes  38 times the ball will not fall in our selected pocket and one time it will fall into our selected pocket. If it does, what happens? Nothing much, except the casino  still pays you 35 to 1. Yikes! 

The house edge now zooms to 7.69%. Ouch! 

Let’s put these figures in terms of possible losing expectations, shall we? Your  expectation on the single-zero game is to lose $2.70 per $100 wagered; your  expectation on the double-zero game is to lose $5.26 per $100 wagered, and your expectation on the (yuck) triple-zero game is to lose $7.69 per $100 wagered. 

The new triple-zero game has become much (much, much, much) more difficult to  beat. And the more bets you make? The more you will lose when your number(s)  don’t come in. That’s the cold hard fact of the matter my friends. I wish it weren’t.  I really do. 

Now, the roulette games that James Bond played were all single-zero games. He  had a pretty decent chance of beating the house or, at the very least, losing a  reasonable amount of money for his fun. 

Maybe this is why today’s roulette players seem rushed? Edgy? Angry? They think, as I’ve said, that the faster they play, and the more they bet, the more money they  will make.  

No. 

On occasion this might be true but seriously that is rarely the case. The faster they  play, no matter what game or roulette strategy they are playing, they will be expected to lose more  and more than that and even more than that and on the triple-zero wheel they  will lose still more than even that. And that is the sad fact.

And the more bets they put out there, the worse it will be.

How Should You Play Roulette? 

I am going to share with you how I play roulette and what games I absolutely look  for at which to spend my playing time. I look for two things. 

I want both if I can get them. Get ready now. Here goes: 

• I look to play the single-zero game first.  
• I will manipulate my betting by taking the percentage off my bets that the single zero game might cost me. 
• If the single-zero game is a $50 minimum, I’ll go down to $25 per wager and that  means I will wager half as much by only betting every other spin of the wheel. This example works out to hold me susceptible to the same expected losses. 
• If I play the double-zero game I will manipulate my bets as I did above if the  minimums are less than I can afford. 
• Remember this: You do not have to bet on every spin of the wheel. You can figure  what you can afford to lose and bet a percentage that brings you in at that  amount. 
• I will play only the even-money bets of red/black, odd/even, or high/low. I prefer  betting the red or black. 

And now for my reward for you (maybe): On the single-zero game some casinos  have a situation where you only have to pay half a losing bet if the green zero comes  up. This is called en prison! This is only on the even-money bets. The casino will not take a losing bet. It will just keep your bet on the layout for the next spin of  the wheel. 

The house edge now falls to 1.35%! Now that is some reward!

On the double-zero game half the even-money bets will be taken if one of the zero  options hits. Yes, the house edge now falls to 2.63% if you make these bets.  Not bad, all things considered. 

All the best in and out of the casinos! 

Are you looking for the best, the very, very best times I have ever had? There  might be a single problem with them, as some are not around anymore or some of them might be played only in locals casinos. 

1. How would you like to play a single-deck blackjack game where all but one  card was dealt from the deck and then the deck was reshuffled from the  cards in the discard pile?

Single deck blackjack with all except one card played. Yes, this was the best  blackjack game my wife, the Beautiful AP, and I played at the Maxim Casino Hotel in the summer of 1992 or thereabouts. 

2. When the dealer ran out of cards, he just grabbed the discards, shuffled  them, and played what remained in the game. Yep! A basic strategy player  had an edge at this game because … 

You could surrender your hand if you wanted.

Any blackjack with $5 wagered earned you a dollar that could be spent anywhere  in the casino. Even for meals in the gourmet room!  

The odds were about one in 20 that a player received a blackjack. That plus the 3-to-2 payouts meant those blackjacks were quite valuable. Of course, those $1  payouts didn’t go up as you increased your bets but still … come on! Free money! 

I learned a method of play (called end game from Paul Kean, a master blackjack  player), and that plus the basic odds of that wonderful game gave us an edge over  the house. Paul was one of the teachers of blackjack great Ken Uston. 

My wife and I spent eight weeks in Vegas until we had to return home to our jobs – we were both teachers at the time. We played eight to 10 hours a day, two  hands each. We were somewhat well-off teachers after that time. All our debts  were paid off. 

They only had four tables available for that magnificent game and we came down early and played all day. Two hands for each of us too!  

We’d go out to dinner and I played craps most nights, working on my controlled  dice throw (took me three years to learn it!). I used the Captain’s throw as my  guide but seriously it was the hardest thing I ever tackled in my gaming career. 

But I could even see in the early 1990s that blackjack was starting to change. Multiple-deck games were becoming the norm – not all at once but slowly you  could see the writing was soon on the wall. 

A few weeks after the Beautiful AP and I returned home the Maxim ended their  game and that was that for that game. 

Playing Baccarat in the High Roller Rooms 

In the good old days of the casinos, just about every high roller room had the large baccarat table with large minimums (in those days $100 to $200). I liked playing in  those. The game was slow and the dealers were truly well-dressed and responsive  since tips were plentiful.  

Given that the house edge on the two best bets were 1.06% on the Banker wager and 1.24% on the Player wager, baccarat is a close game between  players and casinos. It was also a slow game – which was really, really good. The  slower was the better for the player; the faster was the better for the house. 

Since the Banker won more often than the Player I always bet banker. The lower  the house edge; the less you lose. The higher house edge; the more you lose. 

Baccarat attracted many as in many, many superstitious players. You will note that  some table numbers do not appear on the game – number 4 and a couple of  others. 

My most fun came when I found myself sitting across from a wealthy and truly  nutty lady whose English wasn’t actually English. I think she was Asian but even  that was hard to determine since she always had a scowl on her face.

It took me some minutes to realize that she and I had a relationship of sorts. “Of  sorts” is the right term. I won a couple of hands in a row and all of a sudden she  ran around to my side of the table and stuck her face into my face and screamed.

A couple of the people she was with took her by her arms and led her back to the  table. She was glaring at me. 

I won a third hand in a row. She was (I kid you not) growling. Her companion held her arm – I guess to prevent her from running to my side of the table. 

I didn’t play the next round. Nor did she. I didn’t play the next round either. Nor  did she. 

Then I realized what she was doing. She was counter betting me. If I bet Player; she bet Bank. Now for some fun. You see, as I said, I always bet Bank. It was the  best bet at the table so I always made that bet. 

I would see what she did as I made my Banker bets. I was so hoping – and praying – that I could hit a long, long winning streak on the  Banker bet. That would – I assumed – drive her crazy. And that drive wouldn’t be a  long trip for her; I can assure you of that. 

Okay, I made a Player bet. Yes, yes, I made a Player bet. She made a Bank bet. I  quickly switched to Bank bet just as the dealer signaled for the game to start. Bingo! She was now betting with me.  

Her eyes bugged out and she garbled something. She stood up. Her companion  took her arm and settled her down. We lost the bet. Boo-hoo! 

I then bet Player again. She waited and waited. Then the deal hit and I quickly moved my bet over to Banker. She stood up. Was she going to attack me? 

Oh, I forgot to mention, she was a truly short lady. Wrinkled too. She didn’t seem  old but I’m guessing her emotions had left their marks on her skin. I won again!

I could see now that she was struggling. Emotionally struggling. I made a Banker bet. Would she bet with me or against me? 

She bet with me. I won again! This was better than I had hoped for. This was  glorious. I could see she had a full head of steam seemingly coming out of her  ears. 

Then she got up and ran to my side of the table. Oh, boy, I thought, I’m in trouble now. 

She took me by the head (she was awfully strong for such a little lady) and she kissed me. A big wet kiss. She was jabbering in her language – whatever language it was – and she hugged me. Then she ran out of the room. 

That was the last I saw of her. And then, as the gods of chance would have it, I  went on a losing streak. 

The Greatest Dice Rolls I Ever Saw 

The greatest dice roll I was ever on I wrote about in one of my books. The roll was 147 numbers – the second-longest roll ever accomplished (at least as far as I  know). That was the Captain. That roll I will leave for readers of my books to enjoy. 

The most impressive roll was by the woman known as “the Arm.” The rolls themselves were not more than 15 or 20 numbers or so. No. In fact, roll by roll, it wasn’t what you would call special. Plenty of shooters can roll 15 to 20 numbers right? 

It was New Years Eve and the Captain was at the craps table at the Claridge in Atlantic  City. This was somewhere in the vicinity of 1993. 

At that time, the Claridge was a favorite hangout for the Captain. And also, for his crew of high rollers. There were 22 of these guys and most of them played craps. Some also played blackjack; a few even played slots. But the main game was  craps.

The table was cold. Horribly, awfully, hideously cold. “Get the Arm down here,  Captain.” “Come on Captain. Get the Arm.” “This table is freezing.” 

The Arm was the best dice controller I ever saw. She had a unique throw and she more often than not would make money for the Captain and his crew. She didn’t  gamble but she would, when asked nicely, shoot the dice. The Captain would put up a Pass Line bet for her and she was usually off to the races after that. 

She entered the casino shortly after she was called. The crowd (I swear this!)  parted as if she were Moses crossing the Red Sea. She took her place at the table, took the dice, rolled a four, then immediately rolled the four again.  

And for about an hour that is what she did. She’d roll a number then hit that  number again within a roll or two. She did seven-out at times but these seven outs were not often. I watched the greatest dice controller ever that night and it  was, when all was said and done, a very happy New Years for the Captain, the  Crew and, yes, me.

The Beautiful AP and I Stumbled on A Biased Roulette Wheel 

Roulette players of the I-hope-I can-stick-it-to-the-casino school of thought are  always looking for biased wheels where certain numbers come up more than  others in long-range calculations. Indeed, over history some players have found such wheels. 

This is an extensive project, recording hundreds (make that thousands) of spins.  Very few players ever find such roulette wheels and when I played roulette I never  bothered to look. I just played my red and black colors for small amounts and I  was done with the game. 

I always played in casinos where a green zero meant the casino only took half your bet. That brought the house edge down to 2.63% on the double zero wheel and down to 1.35% on the single-zero wheel. That game was a good one  but, no matter what, no edge could be found. 

All the Atlantic City casinos had that game and a few Las Vegas casinos offered it too.

Our normal Las Vegas and Atlantic City days were repetitive. We’d head out early  in the morning to play blackjack for a couple of hours, then go for a walk or run or swim, then eat breakfast, then take a nap, then go out again later, then return and at night go to a show after a scrumptious dinner. 

We might play a little roulette in the evening or craps (low, low, and lower wagers on both of those games) and we’d do the same thing the next day. Our trips lasted a week or two. 

This particular morning in Las Vegas, we headed out to play blackjack at a locals  casino that had a good game. As we passed the roulette table I noticed three  numbers that were next to each other on the wheel that had been selected and we headed out. 

A couple of hours later we came back and I noticed the same three numbers on the scoreboard – each separated by a few other numbers. Wow! They had hit  again. 

We worked out; took naps and then headed to our afternoon casino again. We  passed that roulette table and two of those numbers were again up on the scoreboard. 

“Let’s wait a couple of spins,” I said. We did. In a few spins, one of the numbers  came up. Then we headed out. 

“There are a few numbers that are repeating,” I said. 

“There are always numbers repeating,” said the Beautiful AP. “I doubt there are any biased wheels in a fancy casino such as this.” 

We played blackjack and walked back into the hotel. We walked past the roulette  table. All three numbers were on the scoreboard. 

Back to the room for another nap. Then we went to dinner. Before that, however, we passed the roulette table and two of the numbers showed again on the  scoreboard. I stopped. “Let’s play a few numbers,” I said. “Maybe we have a  biased wheel here.”

We were a few minutes early for dinner so AP and I sat at the roulette table and I bet the minimum bet on the three numbers. 

A few spins later, one of them hit. A few spins after, another one hit. Then the same one right after that. We waited about eight spins later and … we were off to  the races! 

This was a biased wheel! Holy mackerel! We played that wheel for a while when  the pit boss came over. He asked if we were having a good day. “Yes!” I said. 

Here is what happened. No one else played those numbers. They all had their own ways to play the wheel. No one even seemed to noticed that our numbers were  hitting. Over and over! 

“We’re closing this table but you are free to go to another table to play,” said the  pit boss. He closed the table and the other players (who groused a little), got up  and went to the new table. 

We went to dinner. Flushed with one of the biggest wins of our careers!  We ate silently for a few minutes.

“That’s never going to happen again,” I said.

“No, it’s not,” said the Beautiful AP. We sat silently.

“It will make a good article,” I  said.

“No one will believe it,” she said. 

“Probably not,” I said. 

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Aces Manufacturing based in Las Vegas produces “Video Poker Analyzer” capable of monitoring players expertise in playing correct video poker strategy. In the first quarter of 2024 they published a study that identified profits lost to advantage video poker players.

This article explores that article and make some observations.

Contents

1. The highlights of the study
2. How the Video Poker Analyzer works
3. Study recommendations
4. What does this mean for video poker players?
5. And another thing
6. Summary

The highlights of the study

The study, which was published by the company on March 20, 2024, used information gathered by the company’s Video Poker Analyzer. The purpose of the analyzer is to reveal “the identity and lost-profit impact of highly skilled video poker players, known to the industry as Advantage Players (‘APs’).”

The study is based on data from over “three million hands played by over one thousand identified carded players.” According to the study a “small population” of APs can consistently win and obtain a lopsided portion of casino offers.

Specifics according to the study are:

• About 1 percent of the population is made up of APs.
• These players garnered 25.63% of live casinos' trackable (player’s club card inserted) wins during the study.
• Over two-thirds of these players made a profit from their play.
• Because these players were responsible for almost 26% of the coin-in, loyalty programs rewarded them more highly than less skilled players.

How the Video Poker Analyzer works

According to the study Video Poker Analyzer (VPA) is “compatible with any modern slot machine and any casino management system.” The VPA tracks each hand dealt and monitors the player's hold choices.

These choices are then compared to the optimal strategy and a dollar value is assigned to any player error. A “skill rating can be assigned to help predict the casino’s profit and loss each time the carded player returns.”

Study recommendations

The study states that the VPA can identify APs to which casinos can then restrict marketing offers and redirect them to less-skilled players.

It states that by using the VPA data, casinos could see more than a 45% improvement to video poker profits by excluding and reducing APs through a reallocation of marketing dollars to more profitable players.

What does this mean for video poker players?

Before this product, the only skill factor casinos could track were the wins and losses of carded players on these casino games. They knew the coin-in and the amount cashed out. The problem with this is even players who play perfectly can have days where they lose. Poor players can have days where they win. This product can eliminate doubt from the equation.

The numbers quoted in the study seem a bit high to me. This could be due to the casino that was included in the study. The play for the study was taken “at a Las Vegas locals casino.” Locals casinos tend to have higher returns. They also tend to have better offers such as cash back and point multipliers on certain days.

The study focuses strictly on the APs. While I have no doubt they win more (or lose less) in the long run, without special offers, such as point multipliers, they will not win in the long run. Very few pay tables are positive any more. 

It is entirely possible that the product is directed at locals’ casinos since strip and even downtown casinos on average have much lower returns than locals. This, alone, tends to keep APs away.

This product should not cause casinos to lower returns on video poker – well not any more than casinos are already inclined to lower them. It seems this product can be used to accurately identify and act on other elements of the casino player’s experience. 

These items could include cash back, points multipliers, and other casino bonus and promotion offers. VPA would help target good players for reduction in such offers.

Also, currently some casino players' clubs already factor in losses as a criteria for offers and other comps such as rooms and free food and drink. If you lose too little, you do not get as much of those freebies. There is little need for casinos to pay for the VPA system when the casino factors in losses. 

And another thing …

I am not aware how seriously casinos take the argument that advantage players bring with them less skilled players. These players help offset whatever the APs win. Some casinos allow players to link players' club cards for comps.

These casinos can track how much players linked to the APs add to their coffers. But advantage players also bring friends who would not be linked – nor tracked. So, casinos could be hurting themselves by acting based strictly on the advantage players.

There is also the argument that many casino-goers spend money in other areas. They buy food, drink, and merchandise. While I am sure casino management is aware of these amounts, they have no good way to tie it to a players club card.

Summary 

The Video Poker Analyzer will definitely help casinos locate video poker advantage players. I am confident that some casinos will opt to pay for this product and act based on data collected. They will have the data and can apply a fix any way they see fit.

Even though the study shows that 1 percent of carded players account for almost 26% of the coin in, thereby getting a good share of offers, there is a down side.

• The Video Poker Analyzer has costs for the casino to use it.
• It only tracks carded video poker players.
• It does not have the ability to track those who accompany the advantage players.
• Depending on the cost, simply losing advantage players along with their companions could hurt the casino more than it helps.

Time will tell how Las Vegas casinos will react to Video Poker Analyzer.
 

The average casual video poker player is probably unaware of any of the title’s four elements other than in the most general sense. Seasoned video poker players are well aware of return when it comes to this casino game. It is almost certainly the main criteria they use to identify their chosen game. They may have a general feeling about the other three elements. 

Few video poker players understand fully the meaning and interconnection between these four elements related to video poker play. This article will explore these four elements and how each interacts with the others.

Contents

1. The four elements defined
2. How return affects bankroll size and risk of ruin
3. How variance affects bankroll size and risk of ruin 
4. How bankroll size affects risk of ruin
5. Summary

The four elements defined

Before explaining how these four elements are interrelated, it is good to define each of them.

Return:

Return is simply the amount of money from the casino that is returned to the player on average. It is expressed as a percentage. For example, a return of 95% means that on average for every $100 played through the game, $95 is returned to the player as winnings. The casino enjoys a 5% profit on this machine.

Again, this is the average return after hundreds of thousands of dollars in play. The short-term return can vary wildly. The player could hit a royal flush, skyrocketing the player’s return.

The player could also go long periods of time without hitting any wins of consequence, plummeting the player’s return. After a long periods of play, however, the return should approach the mathematically calculated percentage.

Variance:

According to investopedia.com, “The simple definition of the term ‘variance’ is the spread between numbers in a data set. Variance is a statistical measurement used to determine how far each number is from the mean and from every other number in the set. You can calculate the variance by taking the difference between each point and the mean.”

Put into gaming parlance, it is a measurement of how far player’s wins and losses vary. Low variance games have winning hands occurring fairly regularly and paying roughly the same amount meaning wins and losses tend to balance each other out in a short period of time.

High variance games have most of the winnings in high-paying and infrequently occurring hands meaning there are long periods of losing and very large but short streaks of winning. 

Bankroll:

According to Merriam-Webster, “The meaning of bankroll is supply of money : funds.” When it comes to gambling, bankroll is the amount of money that is available to the player with which to gamble. It could be cash in the pocket, room, or casino safe. Or it could be the casino line of credit available to player.

Risk of ruin:

According to Wikipedia, “Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one's investment capital or extinguishing one's bankroll below the minimum for further play.”

When referring to casino gaming, it commonly means the likelihood of losing the entire bankroll allocated to play. Risk of ruin is represented as a percentage. 

On a personal level, risk of ruin describes the player’s appetite for risk. Is the player a risk taker? If so, his risk of ruin tolerance might be 20% – meaning the player is willing to lose the entire bankroll 20% (one in five) of the times he plays. A risk-averse player might be comfortable with only a !% (one in 100). Note that it can never be zero, since anything can happen.

There are two classifications of risk of ruin: session and lifetime. Session refers to a limited amount of play, whether a single session or multiple sessions that make up a day, or trip. Lifetime risk of ruin means unlimited play.

How return affects bankroll size and risk of ruin

Return can have a huge affect on bankroll size and risk of ruin in video poker. If return is close to 100%, bankroll size requirements are lower. The chance of losing larger amounts is less, since the return is high. Session risk of ruin is also low based on low loss expectations

As return to the player goes down, bankroll requirements naturally increase. The player loses more over the long run so the bankroll size needs to be higher to overcome the higher losses. The session risk of ruin also increases due the higher expectation of losses.

If return to the player is more than 100%, bankroll requirements can be minimal since the long-term outlook is positive. Session risk of ruin is also minimized due the positive expectation of winning.

Also, for returns of less than 100%, the lifetime risk of ruin is always 100%. It is only a matter of time before a finite bankroll will be exhausted. Only when the game has a positive return is the lifetime risk of ruin something less than 100%. 

Risk of ruin can be calculated if the proper elements of the game are known. More on this later.

How variance affects bankroll size and risk of ruin

Low variance causes a reduction on the bankroll size due to smaller changes in the bankroll (both up and down) while playing a low-variance game.

High variance games, on the other hand, require an increased bankroll size to handle the larger amounts of loss and win defined by these games.

Risk of ruin is also impacted by variance. Because of deeper levels of loss than low variance games, high variance games have a higher risk of ruin when all other elements are the same.

How bankroll size affects risk of ruin

Bankroll size has the greatest impact on session risk of ruin. Larger bankrolls have greater reserves to finance losing streaks, improving the players chance of success – and thereby reducing their risk of ruin.

In order for a lifetime risk of ruin to be less than total (100%), return is the most important factor. Unless the return is greater than 100%, lifetime risk of ruin is 100%. Ultimately, the player will be bankrupt since the player loses more as he plays more. If he plays infinitely long, he will certainly be bankrupted.

The elements required to determine session or lifetime risk of ruin are, unsurprisingly the other three elements described in this article – bankroll size, return, and variance. There are several risk of ruin calculators available online. If return is over 100%, lifetime risk of ruin can be calculated, otherwise only session risk of ruin calculations are possible.

Most calculators allow the calculation of risk of ruin by inputting bankroll size, return, and variance. They also allow bankroll size to be calculated by inputting return, variance, and risk of ruin percentage that is acceptable to the player.

For more tips, check out 888casino's Video Poker Strategy Guide.

Summary 

Comparing risk of ruin to bankroll size is a great way for payers to understand what is likely to transpire in the casino. They can mentally prepare themselves before beginning play. This mental preparation goes a long way to maintain the player’s control while playing their favorite came.

• The four elements (bankroll size, return, variance, and risk of ruin) are all interrelated. Changing any one of the elements changes bankroll size and/or risk of ruin. 
• Session risk of ruin can be calculated for any value of bankroll size, return, and variance. Small bankroll size means short sessions.
• Lifetime risk of ruin is only meaningful if return is over 100%. Lifetime risk of ruin is 100 percent when return is less than 100%.

I have written so many articles and books on craps that I have decided to start this article by looking at the often deliberately-overlooked area of the game. Many gambling writers shy away from the darkside because it is uncomfortable to write about and thus they give short shrift to it and its devoted but usually quiet players.

That’s right. I am going to lead some of you, maybe many of you, into the darkest corner of the most exciting game in the casino; a corner fraught with really deep emotion but not the loud, wacky, intrusive emotion of the wild crowd maybe cheering and maybe whining and complaining all about you who are not playing the darkside.

You will probably be alone on this side of the game but anyone who plays and wins craps on the darkside knows the joy of being perhaps the one and only such player at a table. 

The word “unique” comes to mind when discussing the darksider. Unique and strong-willed and not afraid of anything at a craps game. Winning at craps is their desire; not wanting to be merely a part of the crowd. Everyone can be losing at craps while the darksider takes the money and can walk from the game as the out-and-out winner!

Rightside vs. darkside

There are two essential games of craps, those being the rightside and the darkside, the former going with the number or point; the latter standing on one’s own and going against the number or point. 

And that second player, known as the darksider or the “don’t player,” means you are rooting against the shooter whose desires are to satisfy the mob of the other players at almost all tables by making his point or other numbers other than the 7 which will knock him or her out of the game as the dice will then be passed to the next shooter.

When a shooter fails to make his point and sevens-out, the table will often moan as if they are one being. The darksider thinks it is too bad for those other players as the darksider can rejoice in his win while that rightside mob is licking their wounds on their losses.

Many of you know how casino games are played. The new shooter gets the dice and this is called the “come-out roll” that starts the shooter’s turn to establish a point (any of these numbers, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) or hitting an immediate win of the 7 or 11. The longer the shooter can hold the dice, the better it usually is for the rightside contingent, the worse it usually is for the darksider.

However, once the point is established, the darksider usually goes to work making bets that call for the 7 to hit. That 7 means a win on every darkside bet the player has made.

On the come-out roll, the darksider can win immediately on the 2, 3 and tie on the 12 (four chances to hit one of those), although he or she loses on the 7 or 11 (eight chances to lose). Okay, no doubt, that the come-out roll favors the rightside player but once a point is established the darksider is in command. Winning at craps becomes easier at this point for the darksider than for the rightsiders.

That 7 has six chances to come up, the most appearances compared to any other number. The darksider is good friends with the 7 except on the come-out roll. That 7 loses all the bets of rightsiders but wins all the bets of the darksiders during the point cycle of the game.

You can bet several ways on the darkside of the game. On the come-out roll, you place your “don’t pass” wager and hope for a 2 or 3. The 12 is a push (tie). Obviously, you win your bet if one of those two numbers shows.

Once a point is made, you will win on any 7.

A look at the house edge

What is the house edge against the darksider in craps? It is a mere 1.36%! 

That’s right; the darksider will lose $1.36 per $100 wagered – one of the very best bets in the casino.

[Please note: The darksider can make a “don’t come” bet which can go up directly on a number. Again, our darksider is rooting for the 7 to appear before that number for a win. And the darksider can lay the odds as well.] 

Now, once the darksider is on a number, he or she has the choice of “laying odds” against that number. Because the 7 has the edge against all the numbers, the darksider must place the long end of the odds bet. 

If the casino allows double odds on a pass-line bet or a come bet, the darksider can lay the odds against that number. If the number is 6, the darksider puts $6 for every $5 he or she hopes to win. On the numbers 5 and 9, the darksider will put up $3 for every $2 he or she wishes to win and on the 4 and 10, the darksider will put up $2 for every $1 he or she wants to win. 

Of course, the odds will be higher amounts of money than those shown above. If the point is a 10 in the double odds game, the darksider can put up $40 to win $20 on a $10 minimum-bet game. Remember, the darksider is in the driver’s seat when the game is being played after the come-out roll. 

There are darksider place bets where you go directly up against a certain number and root for that number to lose to the 7. You can ask the dealer how to do these if you wish. Personally, I prefer to keep the number of bets I use to one or a maximum of two.

I would stick with the don’t-pass bets and the don’t come bets. Once you lay odds on these bets the house edge sinks even more!

Now, to finish this and let you know one thing – rightside players tend to dislike darksiders. (Some say they “hate” darksiders.) You will rarely see or hear a darksider loudly rooting for the 7. I’ve seen this a few times in almost 40 years of play. It isn’t usual.

Okay, there you have it. Now you can bet a good bet at a great game and to heck with all the other players scowling at you.

The altar of craps

Take a close look at that craps table in action with players and live casino dealers taking up spots all around it. What is it they are actually doing? Doesn’t it resemble an ancient altar, the Mayans, the Incas, the ancient churches? Is something being sacrificed to the powers-that-be? 

To me it does seem quite ritualistic and the emotions that craps bring out in players can certainly be intense. It is almost as if we are putting up a sacrifice when we put up a bet at the game. We want the gods and goddesses of luck to be on our side, don’t we? I certainly do. 

Or maybe this is just my imagination? I don’t really know. But it seems so to me that craps exists in its own universe. And that’s enough for me.

No matter what, casino craps certainly has many rules and regulations imposed by the casino in order for the game to run smoothly. These I am sure most craps players know even after just one or two sessions of playing the game. Most dealers know the game and know how to make the game run smoothly. Dealers are the actual trainers of the players. 

However, there are some “rules” that I am now putting in quotes which are strongly believed in by many craps players – even if these “rules” aren’t written on the signage at the table. In fact, for some players these “rules” are close to commandments and must be obeyed. 

Get thee ready to learn the “tablets” of this great game that I am now bringing down the mountain!

1. Do not talk to a shooter once he or she is passed the dice. Although the game is random, many shooters like to take care with their rolls and they prefer not having someone bothering them or jabbering at them. If you are the critical type, save your negative comments for yourself. No one wants to hear you lambasting a shooter who just sevened-out – certainly the shooter doesn’t. Everyone sevens-out. Life is death, taxes and sevening out.
2. If a shooter has hit his or her point, don’t jump in his or her face enthusiastically blowing your garlic-wine-scotch-cigarette-cigar-scented breath into his or her nose. That is not a turn-on for any shooter. Does that turn you on? I doubt it. Best to clap and leave the shooter be.
3. Keeping the shooter safe to shoot without harassment from other players is an important thing to remember. Clapping? Yes, of course. Cheering? Yes, certainly. Going farther than that? No and no. So, hands and breath off all shooters. You can be loud at a craps table but do not be loud directly into someone else’s face.
4. Do not dangle your arms down the inside of the table. That is bad manners and often you will see and hear even dealers sternly warn you about not doing that. Shooters hate it and so do the non-shooters at the table. Your arms belong on your side of the table and preferably not in someone else’s space.
5. Do not try to get into the game when the shooter has the dice in his or her hand. Put your money on the table when the dice are being controlled by the dealer in the middle of the table. In short, if the shooter has dice, you do nothing. Dice are being controlled by the dealer in the middle of the table, put your money down and get into the game. That’s the sequence. 
6. If you are across the length of the table from the shooter, don’t cause much of a stir because some shooters don’t want to look at you gyrating. 
7. It used to be standard practice when I first started playing craps in the olden (golden) days of Atlantic City (hey, do any of you remember the time you had to pay to get into the first casino, which was Resorts Casino in those olden, golden days?) many players would tip the shooters who just had good rolls, even modestly good rolls. You don’t see this as much anymore. I liked the practice because it created harmony at the table among the players. My early tutors in craps were those great World War II veterans. The greatest generation and the greatest craps generation – at least to me. So, if you feel like tipping that shooter? Do so and think a good thought about the greatest generation.
8. If you smoke (stop right now) do not blow the smoke out over the table. Blow it behind you away from the other players. Fewer people smoke now but it is still an annoying habit for those players who do not indulge in that particular habit. So be careful if you are a smoker.
9. Do not count the shooter’s rolls out loud. (“Hey! Hey! Hey! That’s number eighteen everyone. We got a hot one here! Keep it up big guy!”) That is distracting for the shooter and the rest of us at the table. Count to yourself. Oh, and be happy if the shooter can get into those double digits. That’s good shooting.   
10.  If you are a “darksider” (meaning a don’t player) do not cheer if the shooter sevens-out. That’s bad manners, also dangerous in some casinos in our land. Remember that those craps tables do resemble an altar like the ones from the ancient past – and you know what happened on many of them, right? So happy, yes, but quiet is good advice.
11.  Don’t hold your drink over the table (or any food). Keep it on your side of the table so if it spills it doesn’t spill on the layout.
12.  If you enjoy setting the dice in certain configurations then make sure you can do it somewhat quickly. Other players are not as enamored with other players’ shooting forms. By the way, I am, but I think I do not represent the other players.
13.  And do not say the word “seven.”

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Everything in this article is absolutely true (meaning absolutely false) and the words come from the mouths of casino gamblers – adult casino players, not kids. However, the advice and opinions offered go from just bad to just horrendous and everything in between. 

Too many casino players just have totally wrong opinions, and yet on some of these opinions those players just can’t let them go. Indeed, all the more horror for them if they cling to such falsehoods because it costs them a lot more in losses than they need to experience. In general, casinos don’t have such real horrors in their thinking for casinos it is just money in and money in.

New Betting System?

Joey: I’ve been playing for five years once a month and let me tell you I have the best method for my play. It works most of the times. That it does. You can’t ask for anything more than that. It is called the Martyrdale (sic) and it is a very old way to overcome a game that has a house edge. I have taken away the house edge by playing this way folks. I’ll share with you for free.

After every loss, you double your previous bet. Just about every time you lose you will win an upcoming bet and make all your losses back. What could be simpler than this? I am surprised that other players don’t play this way. Maybe because I am new to casino playing and I have fresh eyes and also that other players just haven’t given the games much thought. There would be no casinos if everyone played as I do. So maybe I should be happy and stay quiet.

Frank responds: Joey, nope and nope again, you will lose a few times here and there and guess what? You will be blown away those few times and your losses will be gigantic as you try to recover the previous bets you lost.

The betting system, by the way, is called the Martingale and it is one of the most dangerous methods of playing casino games. Play it enough and you will take a brutal beating. The house edge is working there bright and brutal and it will bounce on you all over even though you think you have a winning method. You don’t.

Collecting Comps

Nanny: Roulette is a great game and I am thinking of playing it. I look at the wheel and it has all those numbers, sure, but what if I bet all those numbers at once? I have to win on one number, right? Therefore, I will always break even on every spin of the wheel, right? Can you imagine the comps I’ll get because of that? I could probably live off them. What a life! The casinos will be paying for me to live like a billionaire.

Frank responds: Nanny, I’m shaking you now to wake you up. There are three different roulette games out there right now and all of them pay a winning number 35-to-1. Sounds good, right? But one game has 38 numbers (1 through 36 and a 0 and 00) and is known as the American game; the other game has 37 numbers (1-36 plus a 0) and is known as the European/French game; and the third game, the newest and the worst of them all, has 39 numbers, 1-36 plus a 0, 00, and 000. No country has taken discredit for that game.

If you bet all the numbers you will win on every spin, yes, but that win will not cover the losses you have on every spin too. So, you will, pardon my wording, go down the nastiest longest losing streak drain in history and find yourself landing time and time again quite hard. 

Trying to figure out a way to out beat the casino is difficult, almost impossible. Take that truth to heart. Some very few (very, very few) methods have been developed to beat the house that work but those methods are hard to learn and execute in the casinos and the casino knows those methods and can usually spot a player attempting to use one. So, let caution be your buzzword. 

Just for your information: The American game has a house edge of 5.26%, meaning a loss of $5.26 per $100 wagered. The European/French game has a house edge of 2.7%, meaning a loss of $2.70 per $100 wagered. 

And that third game? The “untitled” game has a house edge of 7.69%. Yuck! Yuck! You can figure out what the house wins easily now…right? I have an easy way to do this figuring. Just dip into your purse or pocket and all that money will be theirs if you insist on playing this game the way you suggest. We roulette players have to hope the “Yuck, Yuck” game will fade out before we do.

Baffled by Basic Strategy

George: I looked at the “what is called basic strategy” for blackjack and some of the moves do not make any sense at all. I’ve got to think that the casinos have put out this strategy to cost the players a lot of money if they bet this way.

Okay, look at the player hand of 12 going up against the 2 or 3 dealer up-card? What the heck, the basic strategy says to hit your 12, seriously? Oh, come on, really? How about that bad hand of a 16 versus a dealer 10 up-card? Take a hit? Oh, man, idiotic. 

Now, you have a blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace. That dealer could also have a blackjack. But the idiot basic strategy says to just stay on your blackjack and not insure your hand which gives you an absolute win. What gives? You are giving up a guaranteed win by not insuring. Nuts!

There are many more examples but you get the picture. The basic strategy has been sold to us by the casinos. Every blackjack player should see that truth.

Frank responds: You are wrong George. In every way. The casinos did not invent “basic strategy,” they would prefer if the casinos players just played their own made-up (and wrong) strategies. 

Every hand you discussed; you will be playing incorrectly if you make the decisions you suggest. You will lose more and win less – simple as that. 

One on One and Done

Unless you can practice an advantage-play technique such as card counting at blackjack or dice control at craps or you own the luck-goddesses of the universe, you are ultimately doomed to lose to the casinos in your contests with them. 

It’s in the cards, and the ball, and the machine, and the dice. No way around that unless we win our first bet or session and quit forevermore. Then we are long-term winners even if our long term is just one bet or one session. 

I do not think any casino players think differently. Oh, perhaps some have the idea that without a stroke of massive luck, they will still beat one of the most successful industries on the planet based on their betting styles. These players are poor losing souls indeed.

Okay, forgetting buckets of magical luck washing over you and seemingly endless hours of learning hard-to-learn advantage-play techniques, what is the best way to play the games without getting hammered over any prolonged period of time? I think I can answer that question.

Saving money is a good thing when you play casino games. I think you can actually be just as thrilled when you know your play is somewhat thrifty. Being thrifty will not reduce your chances to win some money. And a chance to win is always the reason we feel that delightful sense of anticipation as we wait for the next decision.

Get ready for my secret ... here it comes – play only one bet at any game you enjoy playing. One bet at a time! Let’s look at some of the games and see how this idea works itself out.

Craps

Craps is a game with multiple bets, most of them simply awful, with house edges way, way up there in double digits. What’s worse is that craps players delight in making multiple bets at the game, some good, many rotten with those rotten ones usually taking away any chance that the players will be ahead – even today or tonight. Many craps players need truly good or great shooters to bring home the money to them.

Stop betting multiple bets. Stick with the following bets – only one of them:

1. Pass line or come bets taking the odds when these bets are up on a number. Make sure the odds bets are big and the line or come bets are small. The odds bet has no house edge attached to them. The formula is small line and come bets, highest odds you can afford or are allowed.
2. Play at tables that are crowded. The more players, the slower the game. The slower the game, the better for the player. The game will seem fast but being at an empty or relatively empty table will make the game much faster against your bets.
3. If you are a don’t player (a darksider) the advice is the same – one bet with the laying of odds. Full table or close to it. No place bets.
4. Do not make any place bets except (maybe) the placing of the 6 or 8 on the rightside of the game. Just one of those numbers.
5. I do believe in tipping the dealers but make your tips reasonable in relation to the size of your bets. Do not tip away your profits.

Blackjack

This the most popular table game and a cash cow for the casino against the players. Play one-on-one against the dealer and you are looking at over 100 decisions (or more) per hour. Yikes. Many blackjack hands come out to be more than one hand; doubling down, splitting pairs, with some of them really poor bets. 

Here are your rules of play:

1. Play at full tables.
2. Only play one hand; do not spread to two hands, unless the basic strategy calls for it.  
3. Go to the bathroom during playtime, not during the shuffles. That bathroom time does not risk any of your money. Relieve yourself without worrying about the casino relieving you of your dough.
4. Play perfect basic strategy and do not (do not) listen to the pundits who don’t think basic strategy is the proper way to play.
5. Tip in relation to your bet sizes. Do not go overboard if you are having a hot night.

Roulette

The oldest game in the modern casino – brought to you by none other than Blaise Pascal, a brilliant philosopher and scientist of the 1600s. This is a game with many opportunities to make many different kinds of bets. You can make any one of these bets – but just one bet, no more. But I do have my recommendations here as well.

• Do not play straight up by putting one bet on one number on the main layout. The chances of hitting that one number for a 35-to-1 payout will have you see many losing streaks, some of them very, very long losing streaks. 
• There are three roulette games in today’s casinos, the single-zero game (0); the double-zero game (0, 00); and the triple-zero game (0, 00, 000). All the payouts for straight-up bets are 35-to-1 but the games get worse from one-zero to three zeroes. 
• The house edge on the single-zero game is 2.7%, on the double-zero game is 5.26% and on the triple-zero game the house edge skyrockets to 7.69%.
• I recommend that you only play the even-money bets of red/back, odd/even, or high/low. The payouts on these bets are one-to-one but you will not experience losing streaks that are monumental as they can be with straight up bets on the main layout. You will win 18 times and lose 19 times on single-zero; win 18 times lose 20 times on double-zero; and win 18 times and lose 21 times on triple-zero. 
• Only make one bet; do not spread out as other roulette players will do. It is a bad strategy and wastes a lot of your (hard-earned) money.
• Again, tip in relation to your session bankroll.

Do not play longer than you normally would even when situations look promising. This strategy is called one-on-one. Using it will not cost you as much money. Thrift is a good thing.

Video poker players who play the game regularly – or even not so regularly – tend to have a favorite game or few games. They tend to play these games exclusively. They play the same pay tables for these select games. 

The reason for this is these players have learned and practiced the proper playing strategy for the specific game (or games) and pay tables that they play. They do this to maximize the return from their video poker play. 

But what happens if they cannot find one of their games and pay tables, but there is a similar – but different – game/pay table available. 

Many of the more seasoned players with easy access to several live casinos will simply not play if they cannot find their game/pay table.

Some video poker players who also have favorite games and have practiced the proper strategy for those games. However, they have limited access to casinos and are willing to sacrifice some return to enjoy playing the game.

While this article is focused on these latter players, it may also be of interest to the former. Is playing a close, but wrong, video poker strategy that big a deal? How much does it actually cost a player? Read on to find out more.

Contents

1. The games and strategies that are examined
2. Not exactly the same strategy in some cases
3. Returns from Jacks or Better based games
4. Returns from Deuces Wild based games
5. Pay table (only) differences
6. Summary

1 – The games and strategies that are examined

This article will only examine only a few of the most popular video poker games and their strategies. They are:

• Full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better
• Full-pay (8/5) Bonus Poker
• Full-pay (10/7) Double Bonus Poker
• 9/6 Double-Double Bonus Poker
• Full-pay (15/9/5/3/2/2/1) Deuces Wild
• Not So Ugly Ducks (NSUD) (16,10,4,4,3,2,1) Deuces Wild

2 – Not exactly the same strategy in some cases

While, theoretically, this article is about playing a different strategy, there is at least one situation where some basic common sense should override the strict strategy. That common sense change involves playing a Double-Double Bonus game using any of the other Jacks or Better based strategies mentioned in the article – specifically: Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, and Double Bonus Poker.

When dealt four aces through 4s, the player would keep an ace through 4 kicker. Normally in the game the strategy is developed for, there is no reason to keep a kicker, but it is worth a bundle when playing Double-Double Bonus.

3 – Returns from Jacks or Better based games

The table below shows the game played in the left column with the returns from the different game tips in the columns to the right.

In some cases, the difference is surprisingly small. The differences range from zero to a 1.03% reduction in the return. 

Let us put these numbers into perspective. Assume the game denomination is a quarter. Each bet would then be $1.25. Also assume a play speed of 500 hands per hour. Your speed could be less or it could be more, but 500 is a nice moderate pace for examples. 

At this rate, $625 would be played through the game every hour. The smallest reduction in return is 0.06%. That works out to 37.5 cents per hour. Certainly, that will not matter very much. But let’s look at some other reductions to see how they impact the bankroll.

• 0.31% amounts to $1.94 per hour.
• 0.34% amounts to $2.13 per hour.
• 0.37% is $2.31 per hour.
• 0.53% is $3.31 per hour.
• 0.56% is $3.50.
• 0.65% is $4.06.
• 0.80% is $5.00.
• And, finally, 1.03% is $6.43 per hour.

Some of the reductions in return have a big impact. If the thought of using a strategy familiar to you seems tempting, please remember these numbers before taking the plunge.

4 – Returns from Deuces Wild based games

The following table shows the game played in the left column with the returns from the different strategies in the columns to the right.

Game	Return	Full Pay DW		NSUD
	%	Retn	Diff	Retn	Diff
FP DW	100.76	100.76	0.00	99.73	-1.03
NSUD	99.73	98.80	-0.93	99.73	0.00

There is no good news in the Deuces Wild variety. Playing the wrong strategy costs, and costs big. This is something you should really think about before trying. It is much better to take the time to learn the proper strategy than to commit to more than five dollar per hour reduction in return.

5 – Pay table (only) differences

What happens if the strategy being played is for the correct game, but the pay table is different? How does that affect the return?

Following are a few examples of the cost of playing the strategy for the same game but a different pay table.

Jacks or Better

• Strategy used: Full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better – 99.54 percent return

Game Played	Optimal Return	Modified Return	Difference
JoB 8/5	97.20%	97.29%	-0.01%
JoB 6/5	95.00%	94.99%	-0.01%

• Strategy used: 8/5 Bonus Poker – 99.17 percent return

Game Played	Optimal Return	Modified Return	Difference
BP 7/5	98.01%	98.01%	-0.00%
JoB 6/5	95.00%	94.99%	-0.01%

• Strategy used: 10/7 Double Bonus Poker – 100.17 percent return

Game Played	Optimal Return	Modified Return	Difference
DBP 9/6	97.81%	97.56%	-0.25%
DBP 8/5/4	94.19%	93.44%	-0.75%

• Strategy used: 9/6 Double-Double Bonus – 98.98 percent return

Game Played	Optimal Return	Modified Return	Difference
DDB 10/6	100.07%	100.07%	-0.00%
DDB 6/5	94.66%	94.59%	-0.07%

• Strategy used: Full-pay (15/9/5/3/2/2/1) Deuces Wild – 99.54 percent return

Game Played	Optimal Return	Modified Return	Difference
DW NSUD**	99.73%	98.78%	-0.95%

In most cases, there is not much difference in returns between playing the proper pay table strategy and playing the strategy for most common pay table. The glaring differences are for Double-Double Bonus and Deuces Wild. 

6 – Summary 

• It is very difficult to master strategies for all video poker games and pay tables.
• Using a known strategy for a similar game can be an option for some players.
• Some strategies are not a good match for certain other games.
• The impact on return for strategies for different pay tables of the same game is not as great as different game strategies.
• Care should be taken to understand the impact of using a different strategy before committing to using it.
• Players should decide for themselves what strategy to play – or whether to play an inferior game at all.

It’s easy to stay at one of the new, shimmering casinos on the Las Vegas Strip or thereabouts. And we’re advocates for doing just that. 

The Fontainebleau, for example, is new, cushy and compelling. Opened late last year, it features a state-of-the-art spa, fabulous restaurants (La Fontaine is a terrific Frenchified spot for gourmet dining) and a nightclub that will have you dancing all night. 

But, also, there is something to be said for checking into the town’s oldest joints. They tend to be comfortable, friendly, dripping with history and best bets for value hunters. Knowing where Las Vegas used to be can provide a great counterbalance to explorations of where the ever-changing city is heading next. 

Here then are four of our favorite casino/hotels that drip history and provide great experiences. 

GOLDEN GATE

Not only is this the oldest continually running gambling den in Las Vegas, but it is also a great bargain with recently renovated rooms usually going for less than $100 per night, even on the weekends. Opened in 1906, the Golden Gate was lauded for its electric lighting and steam heat. 

The city’s first phone number was installed at the Golden Gate, though gambling was temporarily put on ice – between 1910 and 1931, when the likes of poker and roulette were outlawed in the burgeoning Sin City. 

These days of course, the place, fittingly situated at 1 Fremont Street, is loaded with all the gambling you can desire. Upon checking in, don’t forget to get a gander at the display case, which features mementos from the early days.

EL CORTEZ

This is my favorite place to gamble. I love the clutch of blackjack tables located in the rear of the casino, with low limits, friendly dealers and a good-natured pit crew. 

Best of all: The single deck games that pay 3 to 2 on blackjacks (these days, the much less advantageous 6 to 5 seems to be everywhere outside of the high limit rooms). 

Located downtown, right on Fremont Street, the El Cortez was built in 1941 and billed as downtown LV’s first full-on resort. In 1945, the joint was purchased by a group of mobsters who included Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky. Tribute is now paid to Bugsy via the Cortez restaurant, Siegel’s 1941, where the prime rib special is a must-order item.

Beyond the food, the Parlor Bar puts on performances of bands playing vintage jazz that takes you back to another era. Back it up with a quick jaunt through the Cortez’s History Hallway, where black-and-white photos capture the early days of Vegas in general and the El Cortez in particular.

If you want to soak up history with comfort and style, be sure to reserve one of the hotel’s 47 original rooms. They received top to bottom renovations in 2022. No doubt, Bugsy Siegel would approve.

GOLDEN NUGGET

The Nugget, as it’s known, reigns one of the fancier places downtown and it was built to be that way, constructed at a cost of $1 million in 1946. The joint’s founder, Guy McAffee, was perfect for Vegas. He came there from nearby Los Angeles with a posse of mobster pals and a history of running illegal nightclubs after his stint as a crooked cop.

Reportedly, McAffee invited 20,000 people to the grand opening and hosted some of the highest poker games in town. Over time, though, the Golden Nugget was eventually eclipsed by places on the Vegas Strip. If it did not exactly go to seed, well, it was on the way.

In 1972, Steve Wynn came to the rescue. Taking a controlling interest, he restored the Golden Nugget back to its original luster. The place changed hands multiple times after Wynn sold it to MGM and MGM sold it to a fresh set of owners. Wynn, if nothing else, was a masterful showman, and the place retains no small amount of head-turning amenities.

Tourists come to check out the Tank Pool – loaded with sharks – and guests enjoy the $30 million swimming pool, complete with a slides that whip you through the shark tank. Thanks to Plexiglass encasement, a drop into the pool is a gamble in which you can’t lose. Goldennugget.com

THE FLAMINGO

While Guy McAffee was getting the Golden Nugget in motion, his organized crime pal Bugsy Siegel was breaking ground on a main thoroughfare that came to be known as the Las Vegas Strip. 

That’s where the Fabulous Flamingo stood. Opened in 1946, it was the third casino to be built on the Strip (first up on what would pretty much define Vegas was the El Rancho) and stood out as the costliest spot in town, constructed with a $6 million budget. 

The idea was right – put up luxurious digs (including Seigel’s penthouse, which took up the entire fourth floor), bring in top-flight entertainment (the likes of Jimmy Durante and later Wayne Newton), lure rich gamblers from around the world – but the execution must have been flawed. The Flamingo flopped in record time. By 1947, other mobsters had it under their control and Seigel took a bullet to the head in June of that year.

What marked the end of Seigel also seemed to mark the beginning of the Flamingo and high-end Vegas as we now know it. The property turned over $4 million in profit during 1948 and Vegas proved to be fertile ground for organized crime.

While the Flamingo has switched ownership a number of times – one of the bosses, in 1953, added the Champagne Tower, which was fronted with bubbling neon – it is now in the hands of Caesars Entertainment and rules as the oldest, still-operating casino on the Strip. 

The tropical themed pool remains in full effect and the spirit of Hunter S. Thompson, who stayed there while reporting “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas,” still haunts some of the rooms. Speaking of which, the Fab Rooms are the oldest and most loaded with history (a plus or minus, depending on how you see things) and high-floor Flamingo rooms are the pinkest and newest and offer views of the flamingo loaded Habitat. 

Where would I stay? Like a blackjack player dealt a pair of Aces, I’d split ‘em, and spend half of my time in each room.