There are hosts of ways to play the game of craps. Most of them call for a great number of bets, perhaps using the Pass Line, the Come bets, the Place bets of the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, and a serious number of Crazy Crapper bets including the Hardways, the C&E, the Horn, the Whirl, the Field, and all the possible combinations of single numbers straight up. In addition, with new “jackpot” type bets such as the Fire Bet, players can have a huge amount of money on the layout.

The more bets you make the more bets you have to hit in order to win and the more money the house edge gets to grind away at. In the game of craps, the house edge almost always wins.

[Please note: My mentor, the legendary, late Captain of craps, named the worst bets at the craps table as Crazy Crapper bets because you had to be crazy to make them. Such are his words to the wise! Follow his advice; you can’t go wrong.]

Go to any crowded craps table in the casino and you will see the layout covered in bets of all denominations. Some of the bets are good, some are decent but most of them are of the avoidable type; as in if you want any chance to come home ahead during any length of time you should avoid making the bad bets right now.

Sadly, the overwhelming majority of players just can’t stop making those bad bets. The game is too thrilling not to go for what these players think of as “the gusto.” Often such players wind up disgusted when the gusto doesn’t appear all that often.

Here are the best bets to make at craps:

RIGHTSIDE BETS

Meaning betting on the shooter hitting numbers and not sevening out in the point cycle of the game.

Some caveats: You will reach $100 far more often by betting the 6 or 8 since you must bet them in $6 increments. So you are betting a dollar more facing a greater house edge. This might not seem like a lot when the bets are only in the $6 range but if you bet much more you can see the impact.

For example, let us take 10 bets: A $60 Place bet of a 6 or an 8 will lose you 90 cents and 10 of these bets, which come to $600, will cost you $9.12; while a $50  Pass Line or Come bet will lose you 71 cents and 10 of these bets, which come to $500, will cost you 7.05. (I’m rounding the numbers.)  The difference is pretty big. You lose about two dollars more. Think of betting in the hundreds per decision – it can get very expensive.

[Please note: The ability of the player to take the odds bets on his Pass Line or Come bets is a great option. The key idea is to make your Pass or Come bets low and to maximize the odds as best you can. This option, properly used, reduces the house edge remarkably for the player.]

THE BEST DARK SIDE BETS

You are betting against the shooter and rooting for the 7 during the point cycle of the game. Dark side players make up a very small percentage of craps players but for comparisons, here are the best Dark side bets.

[Please note: The starred * Dark side bets require a five percent commission to get the house edge as low as it will go. In addition, the house edge on the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come is 1.40 percent if we do not count the no-decisions as a part of the bet. The expected loss would then be $1.40 per $100 wagered.]

The Darkside has a slight edge on the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come. Since I do not count the no-decision bets in the math, the one-tenth of one percent difference is actually not that much. The rest of the Dark side bets go increasingly higher in terms of the house edge. The more a player makes those Dark side Crazy Crapper bets the worse it is for him.

As with the Rightside bettors, it is best to make your Don’t Pass and Don’t Come bets low and maximize the odds as best you can afford. You should avoid the other bets as they are essentially a waste of money. You are looking to win money and not have a false pleasure of seeing your Darkside bets on many numbers.

THE SAVVY RIGHTSIDER

I strongly recommend that all players make use of the Captain’s 5-Count before placing any wagers. By doing so, you will eliminate about half of the shooters from any betting consideration. The 5-Count cannot give you a mathematical edge over the casino but it can get rid of many players and leave you free to bet the ones who make it past the 5-Count. Saving money is a good step in trying to make money. An hour playing the 5-Count will save you about 50 percent of your expected losses. And that’s good!

So making the best bets and using the 5-Count is a great craps strategy.

[Please note: In a future issue I will get into more detail about the 5-Count. However, I have an extensive discussion of it in my book I Am a Dice Controller. To me it is the best technique for deciding upon whom you will wager.]

CURRENT CRAPS CONTROVERSY: THE ONE BET TECHNIQUE

Here is where many of you who are craps aficionados will take issue with me; I recommend only making one bet against one player. If that bet wins, you can make another against this shooter. 

So you have a Come bet on a number and it hits. Now you are given your payout and the return of your bet. You can now make another Come bet. But you only go with one bet at a time. And one more and one more as long as you keep winning that one bet over and over. You are not to mimic the other players who are making many bets.

And here is the next point of possible contention: All your bets must be either a Pass Line (with odds) or a single Come bet (with odds). You are not going to use any Place bets and you certainly are not going to make any other bets such as the Crazy Crapper ones. 

Here is how it will go: When the 5-Count is reached, you will place either a Pass Line bet (meaning the shooter just made his point) or a Come bet. When they get up on a number, you take the odds. If such a bet loses on the first placement (meaning a 2, 3 or 12 rolled), you will replace the bet. You always want one bet going.

Let me do a quick summation:

•    Bet Pass or Come only
•    Once on a number take the odds
•    Shooter hits 2, 3 or 12, replace the Pass or Come bet
•    If shooter hits a 7 or 11, keep the bet up (unless it is a seven-out)
•    If the shooter hits your number then make another Pass or Come bet
•    Always bet low on Pass and Come; take as much as you can afford in odds

WHY ONE BET IS THE BEST BET

Many craps players make a minimum of three bets, while others will go the route, making many bets, usually a combination of good ones and bad ones. Think about this. Is it such a good idea making more than one bet?

It isn’t. 

The casino edge works best over time or number of decisions. Just look around the casino next time you visit and see all those people playing all those table games and machines. All those decisions will put the casino in the driver’s seat. And the more decisions a single player experiences the more likely he will be a loser.

Keeping those losses low can only be done by betting one bet – a good bet! – and thus you will not be giving the casino as much time as you would if you bet multiple bets. 

[Please note: A good rule of thumb is to understand that the number of decisions is the key variable in playing any casino game. One player betting one bet will have very few decisions against the house – meaning his time against the house edge will not be as lethal as the player who makes multiple bets.]

THE ONE BET DARK SIDER

There is a slight difference in my recommendation for one bet on the Dark side. You only make a Don’t Come bet, not a Don’t Pass bet. There is a subtle reason why I recommend this: On the Don’t Pass you can get hammered if the 7 appears over and over, as it sometimes does. The tendency will be to keep putting up more Don’t Pass bets in such a case. (The 11 can do the same thing, although obviously not as often.)

On the Don’t Come if the 7 appears the shooter goes down to defeat and your one bet is the only bet lost. On the appearance of the 11, well, there you have to use discipline not to keep putting up more and more bets should the 11 happen in succession. Give yourself one loss and then do not bet anymore.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RIGHTSIDE AND DARK SIDE SINGLE BETS

The reason I treat the one Rightside bet differently from the one Dark side bet has to do with the nature of the first placement. On the Rightside a 7 or 11 is a winner for the player. He has eight chances to win on the 7 and 11 and only four ways to lose on the 2, 3 or 12. On the Dark side, the very first placement has the house edge written all over it. The Dark sider loses eight decisions on the 7 and 11 but only wins three decisions should the 2 or 3 appear. Remember if the 12 appears it is a no decision for the Dark sider. The Dark sider’s dangerous dilemma is getting by that first placement.   

SO WHAT DO I DO WHEN I PLAY?

The big question I had to answer when I decided to go the one-bet approach was whether I would only make one bet on me. I enjoy shooting the dice and my craps-playing career is defined by my own rolls with some exceptions.

So I decided I’d put my money on myself by starting out with three bets; my Pass Line and two Come bets with odds when these bets were up on a number. You catch my drift; I’m making me the determining factor in my craps-playing career. 

In addition I bet much more money on myself than I do on other shooters. Each of my three bets will be about three times more than I bet on other rollers – meaning I am betting between nine and 10 times more money on myself. If I win I win; if I lose I lose. I don’t blame other shooters for my losses. I try to put my play on me and no one else.

If you have confidence in your shooting ability then you might want to take a page from me – but don’t think you are a good shooter if you’re not. Casino craps play has many people thinking they are better than they actually are. You have to be honest with yourself. One bet on you when you shoot is no sin. If you aren’t a great shooter then treat yourself as you would any other shooter.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

I received an email from a video poker player who asked me this question:

“I can never win at video poker. Are the video poker machines rigged?”

It turns out that the above was not the first, or the last question, I’ll get from players about “rigged video poker machines.” Many players, especially those who play slots, have an uneasy feeling about playing video poker machines. They believe that casinos can somehow rig the cards in a video poker machine to make it harder to get a winning hand. If you believe that casinos can do this, you definitely need to read what I’m about to say about this.

First, let me ask you this question. If we were to play a game of video poker on a kitchen table with a deck of playing cards, how would we do it so that the game is honest? Suppose you make a bet and I take a standard 52-card deck, shuffle it, and then randomly select five cards from the shuffled deck and place them face up on the table. While you are looking at your five-card hand to determine which cards you want to hold, I’ll continue to shuffle the remaining 47 cards in my hand.  Let’s suppose that you tell me that you want to hold the first three cards in your hand. I would remove the two cards in your hand that you want to discard and place them aside, stop shuffling, and give you the top card from the 47-card shuffled deck and place it face up in position four in your hand, and the next card in the my shuffled stacked would be face up in position five in your hand. The hand is over. If your five-card hand contains a pair of jacks or higher poker hand, I’d pay you an amount based upon a pay schedule of winning hands that I would have shown you before we started playing video poker. After I paid you (assuming you had a winning hand), I would collect all the cards, put them in one 52-card stack, and start shuffling them again for the next hand.

I think you would agree that the above procedure results in a fair game because each card in the deck has the same probability of being selected. Furthermore, on your initial hand, if you decided to discarded, say, a two of clubs, there is no way for you to get the two of clubs again on the subsequent draw. In other words, I haven’t rigged the game in any way. 

The way I dealt the cards above is exactly the way the cards are shuffled and dealt in a video poker machine in a casino. In order to emulate the above procedure, video poker machines have a computer chip to simulate the process of shuffling a standard deck of 52-virtual cards, and then randomly selecting the cards for each hand so that each card has the same probability of being selected. (For techno geeks reading this, video poker machines have a random number generator program “burnt-on” the computer chip that does all this.) The computer chip that is in the video poker machines is tested and certified by an independent testing lab to be certain they will do exactly what I described above. Furthermore, state gaming regulations mandate that the programs in video poker machines must operate per the above, and if they don’t, a casino can be fined, or worse, lose their gaming license. (The latter is too much risk for a casino for very little return; especially when they make oodles of ore profit from their video poker machines by legally decreasing the pay table on a machine with no risk.) 

Here’s another fact about video poker machines that is important to understand. The odds of getting any of the winning hands in a video poker game can be calculated with great accuracy since every card must have the same probability of being selected. This means you have the same chance of getting a royal flush in a Jacks or Better machine in casino A as you do casino B, or C, or any casino located anywhere on this planet. (This assumes a random selection of cards per the above.) Since a casino can’t change the odds of getting the winning hands in video poker, the only way they can change the return on their video poker machines is to change the payoffs on winning hands. (That is why it is important that you look at the pay table on a video poker machine for a particular game before you play it.) 

If you are a slot machine player reading this, the symbols you see on a slot machine do not have to appear with the same probability as the cards in video poker must do. For example, the first symbol on the reel of a slot machine could be programmed to appear 0.1% of the time, whereas symbol number 2 might appear 5% of the time (and so forth for the other symbols). In other words, the casinos can alter the odds for the winning combinations of symbols in a slot machine but they can’t for the cards in video poker. All they can do for video poker is (legally) change the payouts for the winning hands.  

Some video poker players believe a machine is ‘rigged” after they play for “a long period of time” without getting a royal flush. The mathematical facts are this: it’s possible to play 40,000 or more hands without getting a royal flush. The average number of royals is one per cycle of 40,000 hands, meaning an average of many cycles of 40,000 hands. In any one cycle you could get more than one royal flush, or none. (I’ve personally played over 200,000 hands without a single royal flush, and trust me, the machine was not rigged.) Therefore, playing for a long period of time is not an indication that a machine is rigged.

Lastly, think about this. If you were the head of a major casino company, would you rig your video poker machines knowing that if you were caught you could face losing your gaming license, be fined, and possibly face massive class action lawsuits by players for fraud? 

The bottom line is this: you can rest assured that video poker games in major gaming jurisdictions are not rigged. 

Ask a sharp advantage player what he thinks of the lottery and said AP will most likely laugh in your face. You don’t need to be James Grosjean to know that the lottery is strictly for suckers, dreamers and grandmothers. After all, the odds of winning the grand prize looms at around 1 in 292-million. To put things into perspective, the likelihood of being struck by lightning over the course of your lifetime: 1 in 3,000. Fortunately, nobody shared any of this information with Stefan Mandel. Otherwise, he might not have gone on to become the world’s winningest lottery player.

Relying on skill rather than luck, Mandel has taken down 14 lotteries, in at least three countries, and raked in some $40-million. But, like every good AP, he tries to downplay his brilliance. “I’m a weekend mathematician,” he insisted to the Romanian magazine Night & Day. “[I’m] an accountant with too much education. But, mathematics, applied properly, can guarantee a fortune.”

It probably helped that he was living in Romania, in 1964, when the country was under communist rule. At the time, he was toiling as a numbers-cruncher for the national mining company and seeking a score that would lead to a more comfortable life. Maybe it would even get him out of Romania – which, back then, was not the greatest place for brainy Jews.

For some reason, Mandel began to focus on the state lottery. He took it apart, dissected it, looked for edges in the same way that Edward O. Thorp was attacking the seemingly unbeatable game of blackjack. Unlike Thorp, though, Mandel did not have the benefit of a university’s room-sized computer. He simply had his brain, intellectual ambition and a desire to change his life. 

During off hours, he immersed himself in mathematical concepts and theories. He came up with a theorem that he called Combinatorial Condensation. It was an algorithm that allowed him to guarantee a second place finish in a six-number lottery. Essentially, by picking five out of the six numbers and buying all the tickets with the corresponding combinations, he could 100-percent realize a second-place finish, which was good enough for him. 

With the financial backing of friends who believed in Mandel’s beautiful mind, he procured the tickets and did better than expected. Getting a little lucky, Mandel and his investors took the first-place prize. That brought them $30,000 worth of Romanian leu. After paying taxes and shipping money to his investors, Mandel was left with $5,000 in leu, which came to about $40,000 in today’s valuation. 

This windfall may not sound like a fortune, but it equaled eight years of salary for an average Romanian at the time. The sum was enough for Mandel to finagle his way out of his homeland. He spent the next few years roaming around Europe – and we wouldn’t be surprised if he applied his mathematical smarts to casino games around the continent – before settling in Israel. Once there, Mandel attended university in Haifa and earned a degree in economics. 

By the 1980s, Mandel had made his way to Australia. He worked as an accountant, invested in precious metals and lived a life of domesticity. While he never forgot about the lottery, the prospect of winning a drawing with 45 numbers and more than 8-million combinations must have seemed like an impossibility – even to Mandel. 

So he hit the books and came up with another algorithm. This one allowed Mandel to reduce the number of needed tickets from 8-million to 3-million. It was more complicated, more profitable and more of a secret (Mandel never released details on phase II of his lottery-beating strategy). It also seemed unbelievable. 

But, of course, armed with the uncontestable reality of math, Mandel knew better. “Not all lotteries are profitable from the player’s point of view,” he has said. “The only sure way to win is to cover all the possibilities. The one in Sydney provided the opportunity for me to invest $7-million in order to win $27-million.”

With that kind of clear-headed thinking, Mandel managed to find investors for his scheme. And technology made the process easier than it would have otherwise been. By now it was 1987 and personal computers were easily accessible. He used them to work out the details and to print the millions of forms required to purchase the necessary tickets.

“When I announced [in 1987] that I would take the big prize in the Sydney lottery, everyone told me, ‘You won’t succeed,’” Mandel said. “I got angry and won the big prize 13 times in a row, with $400,000 in smaller prizes.”

Australian authorities got angry as well – and changed lottery laws to make it impossible for Mandel to keep beating the game. Undaunted, he set his sites on America. More specifically, he focused on the Virginia lottery. The appeal for him, according to Washington Post, is that “Virginia boasted fewer number combinations than other lotteries … Mandel concluded it would cost only $7.1-million to buy every ticket” – which could be printed out at home in Australia, as per the Virginia lottery’s regulations.

But the prize-money had to be big enough to make the investment worthwhile. So Mandel waited patiently and monitored the pools. As soon as one hit $27-million, Mandel pulled the trigger and put his plan into motion – with just three days in which to buy some 7-million tickets. 

Thirty computers and a dozen laser printers were put to work. Mandel told “How’d They Do It” that he used “20 or 30 tons of paper” in order to create all the tickets. Then he invested $60,000 on having them jetted from Australia to the United States. A team of accountants came on board to ferry the tickets to lottery outlets and pay for the tickets that had already been printed. 

It went off without a hitch – until Mandel and his team ran out of time, managing to buy only some 5-million tickets at the time of the drawing. Though the Virginia lottery had ceased to be a lock, Mandel was still a favorite and things fell in the way they were supposed to. He and his crew won the first prize along with a million-dollars or so in smaller prizes. 

The deal was good for Mandel – he paid himself a $1.7-million fee for organizing everything – though the investors did less well: those who put in $4,000 wound up with only $1,400 after expenses and taxes. The US government inspected Mandel, and the Virginia Lottery Commission attempted to get out of paying him. Once it became clear that he did nothing wrong, though, the authorities had no choice but to make good on the money. That said, the rules have changed so that a Mandel-style gambit could never again be engineered.

Backed off from the most lucrative lotteries, Mandel tried creating one of his own (and failed) before doing some jail time in Israel due to a conviction for fraudulent activity. These days, once again a free man, the lottery king is said to be living a quiet life on a small island in the South Pacific. Just don’t expect him to try his luck on a random scratch-off. “I don’t like chance,” Mandel said “I consider it a discontinuity in social organization.”

The average Roulette player wins in one of two main ways. 

The first way involves betting on a random selection of 18 numbers or less (just under half the wheel). Most bettors who take this approach tend to change some of their numbers on subsequent games. 

The second way Roulette gamblers approach the game is to choose 12 numbers (just under one third of the wheel), and they tend to stick to the same numbers. 

In this article, I’m going to show you how you can apply order to the game using the second way, betting on 12 numbers and I’m going to suggest a strategy I’ve established that involves learning 4 steps and then how and when to apply 7 rules.

But before I continue, I’d like to address the pros and cons pertaining to the random way of playing online Roulette versus sticking to a set of numbers, so you can understand the difference between the two methods. 

NUMBERS IN FLUX

When a bettor randomly selects different numbers from game to game, it’s difficult to then work out when to increase or decrease wagers because the process of winning and losing is in flux; meaning it’s determined by what the next set of numbers might be. That’s not to say there aren’t any good -- or what you might call lucky -- random bettors out there, but you’ll find that pro Roulette players tend to select numbers they’re going to stick with. In doing so they can organise a structured method of figuring out when their numbers are most likely to occur and when they are not. 

In short, although there’s no guarantee of securing a higher probability that you’ll be correct on the result of anyone X or Y outcome, you’ll nevertheless form a clear pattern of outcomes that’ll guide your wagering decisions.  

Knowing when to play and how much to wager is the key to standing a chance of growing a bankroll. You can’t be efficient at doing this if you’re constantly changing the numbers you bet on without good reason. The Duke of Wellington was a military leader who knew when to advance and when to retreat. To win at online Roulette you’ve got to adopt strategical thinking. 

STATIC CHIPS

‘Static chips’ is a term I came up with. They are chips that are wagered on the same set of numbers on a Roulette table betting layout. Betting on the same numbers creates order to the game because betting in an orderly manner in the random game of Roulette has its advantages as I’ve alluded to; frequency of wins versus losses, increasing and decreasing wagers. 

The pressure on players to pick different numbers each game is off. The focus then turns to money management, stop losses and bet again triggers. It’s these elements that delivers strength to any decent online Roulette strategy. Betting on static chips frees up a player’s ability to implement intelligent wagering tactics. 

Knowing when to bet and what the bet size should be is everything in Roulette. A player can succeed if the burden of choosing numbers is eliminated from the wagering process so that productive planning can be applied to money management. Whilst it’s fun to change a set of numbers you’re going to bet on from one game to the next, in doing so you’re giving up control over the all-important money stats.    

WHY 12 NUMBERS

In Roulette, selecting 12 numbers to bet on is almost one third of the numbers on a European wheel since, aside from the one green Zero, there are 36 numbered pockets, 1-36, organised on the betting layout as 12 numbers in each of the three Columns and 12 numbers in each of the three Dozens. The pay-out for both betting options is 2-1.

Although there are 25 numbers against you -- just over two thirds of the wheel -- hitting upon a streak of wins will pay off because you’ll receive 2 chips profit for every 1 chip of the same value wagered whereas you’re only losing 1 chip when you do lose. If you can manage the risk to reward (which Roulette is all about) by implementing clever tactics, you’ll stand a decent chance of generating more chips to add to your bankroll. 

HOW TO CHOOSE YOUR 12 NUMBERS

You can simply choose any one of the six, 2-1 Column or Dozen options, select one Column or Dozen and stick to those numbers. Though each set of 12 numbers have their pros and cons as to their positions on a wheel, they are nevertheless relatively nicely spaced out as you can see below.

While it’s true that any set of 12 numbers i.e. any combination of 12 has as much chance of occurring as any other set of 12 numbers there are advantages in choosing 12 numbers belonging to a Column or Dozen. 

TOO MANY COMBINATIONS

One advantage is that you escape from deciding which next set of 12 different numbers you might bet on. There are just so many combinations of 12 numbers out of all 37 numbers on a Roulette wheel overthinking will make you dizzy. It’s clear that changing your numbers all the time over complicates the game and diminishes the task of forming a stable win/loss ratio that will in turn determine your success ratio.

QUICK WAGERING

You can select the amount you want to wager in one box that covers 12 numbers making up a Column or Dozen whereas with a mixed set of 12 numbers you’ve got to click on every number each game you bet on unless you stick to the same set in which case you just repeat your bet. However, this can be a nightmare when you’re constantly increasing and decreasing wagers especially when there isn’t much time to place your bets between games.     

THE STRATEGY IN ACTION

STEP 1: PREPARE YOUR NUMBERS

Pick your 12 numbers. I’m going to assume you’ve selected one Dozen or Column for the reasons given above, but that’s up to you.

STEP 2: MAKE NOTES

Get a pen and a sheet of paper and begin to record the outcomes of each game. Let’s say you’ve chosen to wager on Column 1 for instance, then make a note of the outcomes as seen in the following illustration.

So now that you know how to make notes of outcomes move on to,

STEP 3: ANALYSE YOUR NOTES

Under the outcomes, add Win or Loss as seen below so that this data will give you an idea of the frequencies those outcomes are forming. This will give you an idea of the likelihood that your Column is due to occur or unlikely to occur within the next few spins. In turn this information will lead you to wager and will give you an idea as to your bet size i.e. more or less than your standard flat betting amount, or not to wager at all so that you can wait until a losing streak has ended.

STEP 4: APPLY THE STRATEGY

When you have enough outcomes noted you’ll know at what stage of the betting strategy the Column is at and you’ll be able to assign one of the following 7 rules and so continue to apply whatever rule fits in with the win/loss ratio or stop loss/target limits.

ADVANCE STRATEGY

1.  Bet one unit. One (x1) unit is whatever your standard flat betting chip value amount is. It could be from the online casino’s minimum stake upwards for that Column or individual numbers.
2. Optional: Bet double i.e. 2 chips when your Column has occurred twice in a row, so double up for a possible triple win. Do this only once following each double set up, so that when you lose you’re only losing an extra 1 chip, but when you win, you’re winning 4 chips, given that your  wager will be 2 and you’ll be paid 6.
   
   Retreat:
3. Reduce wager from 2 to 1 whether you win or lose your (b) attempt bets.
4. Stop loss: Stop betting after losing x3 in a row and wait for (f) to occur. 
5. Stop betting completely if your bankroll losses -12 chips. Take a break and allow bad sets of outcomes to pass.
   
   Re-engage: 
6. When one of the numbers belonging to your Column becomes an outcome again after having not bet following x3 losses in a row, start wagering 1 chip again as in (a).
   
   End Game: 
    
7. Stop betting when you’ve reached a fair target. I recommend +4 to +8 units per session. A session means there’s a long gap of at least 100 spins on the same wheel before you begin a new session.

[When Zero occurs, ignore the outcome as if it had not occurred; so, continue betting or waiting if on a stop loss. When you’re on a (b) bet, also bet a little on the Zero. 10 cents max for every $2 wagered, thus if you wager $20 on your Column when betting (b) then bet $1 on Zero].  

I hope you’ve learnt something new about Roulette numbers and outcomes and hope my betting strategy might be useful to you.  
 

(Note: I’m not telling this story just to brag about my good fortune but rather to use it as a teaching example for video poker players.)

In a previous article, I bemoaned my long royal flush drought in which I played about 270,000 hands between one royal flush and the next one.  Then boom … I found myself in another mini-drought beginning in July 2019, lasting until the middle of December 2019. I was hoping for one more royal before the year ended. Here’s what happened.

During that period, I played about 55,000 hands without getting a royal. The math says that you should expect a royal flush once in about every 40,000 hands on average.  The latter “on average” means after many cycles of 40,000 hands. In any one cycle you may hit one (or more) royal flushes, or perhaps none (as it happened to me); but it will, over time, average one royal per 40,000 hands. (The latter varies slightly depending upon the game you play but for the purpose of this article I’ll use 40,000.)

So here it was, the second week of December, and I’ve already played slightly more than one cycle of 40,000 hands without a royal; frustrating … yes. The game I was playing for the past three months was 8/5 Bonus Poker, which has a theoretical return with perfect play of 99.17%. (I usually play 9/6 Jacks or Better or NSU Deuces Wild, which have a higher theoretical return; however, the casino that offers the 8/5 Bonus Poker has a much better bounce back and free play program and, consequently, a higher overall return.)

In July 2019, I had hit my first royal flush of the year.  Then I went royal-less right up until the second week of December.  Heaven knows I had more than my share of dealt four cards to the royal; however, every time I drew one card it was never the one I needed for a royal flush. Then on December 18 my luck changed. I remember being dealt another four cards to the royal flush and coming up empty handed (again). However, on the very next hand, I was dealt three cards to the royal: an Ace of spades, Jack of spades, and Queen of spades plus two garbage cards. I held the three cards to the royal flush and with long odds of 1 in 1,081, and happily, I was dealt the two cards I needed for the royal, the King and ten of spades (see photo).  Fortunately, I achieved my goal of hitting one royal flush by year end, even if it was a lucky draw. So what’s the point of this story; it’s this.

 

Going through long stretches of sessions without a royal flush can be very frustrating for video poker players. No matter how skillfully you play, sooner or later you will experience this, and when it happens, your bankroll will be heading south simply because the royal flush accounts for about 2% of your expected return. This is why having enough bankroll is so important if you want to be successful playing video poker. How much bankroll? That depends, of course, on how long you play, what game you are playing and the denomination. But fear not … there are tools available that you can use to determine your short- and long-term bankrolls. (The one I use is the software program Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. You’ll also find good information on bankroll requirement in these books: Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner and Video Poker Optimum Play.) I encourage you to be diligent and determine your bankroll needs and then set aside that money in a special account (e.g., money market) that you use solely for playing video poker.

Here are some more tips to minimize the drain on your bankroll during droughts.

1. Play only when a casino is offering multiple point promotions. (In my case, I played only when I was getting either two or three times multiplier on the points I earned playing.) With a base of 0.25% times the amount of coin in that I could use as free play, and a two- or three-point multiplier, I was earning instead 0.5% or 0.75% of my coin in. This resulted in $100 or $150 respectively in free play that I could play once through the same 8/5 Bonus Poker machine and then cash out. Earning this extra “cash” decreased the losses during my drought and help preserved my bankroll.
2. Select a casino that gives good bounce back in their mailers.  In my case, I was getting $200 in free play weekly for about $25,000 coin in. Between the $200 in bounce back and the above $100 or $150 in free play, I was able to limit the damage to my bankroll during my “drought.”
3. Play a video poker game that offers one (or more) mini-jackpots. For example, I was playing mostly NSU Deuces Wild early in my drought, and several times I hit four deuces ($1000 payout at dollar denomination). Even when I was playing 8/5 Bonus Poker, I was lucky and hit four aces several times for a $400 payout each time. But be careful here. There are plenty of other video poker games with an even bigger mini-jackpot (like Double Double Bonus), but these games have higher variance and require an even larger bankroll to avoid the risk of ruin (i.e., going broke).
4. Be sure you are playing every hand accurately. Bring along a strategy card and check it if you are not sure how to play a hand. It’s also wise to invest in a video poker software program to practice the playing strategy at home. The software will compute your playing accuracy; you need to have at least 99% or better before marching into a casino to play video poker. Playing mistakes will cost you dearly in a casino, which will decrease your bankroll even more during droughts.

There’s another side to playing video poker that you need to keep in mind.  Sometimes, even against long odds, you can get lucky and draw just the cards you need for a royal flush.  For example, the first royal I hit (above) had long odds of 1 in 1,081 for drawing the two cards I needed; yet, I lucked out and hit the royal. But wait … if you think this was a lucky draw, it pales in comparison to what happened next.

Exactly one week later, I played another session (this one on December 19) in the same casino. The session was extremely frustrating because I was dealt four cards to the royal on five different occasions, and each time I couldn’t get the one card I needed for the royal. (Statistically, you can expect to be dealt four cards to the royal about once every 47 hours, assuming a leisurely 600 hands played per hour. Yet, here it was three hours into my session and I had already been dealt four to the royal five times.)  With odds of only 1 in 47 to get the card I needed for a royal, it was frustrating when I came up empty-handed five times in three hours. Then this happened.

On the very next hand, I was dealt a Jack of hearts and four garbage cards. My only play was to hold the Jack and draw four cards. I was hoping to get at least a high pair and get the $5 back that I bet on the hand. I mean the odds of drawing four cards that you need for the royal are very long: 1 in 178,365. So I held the Jack of hearts, hit the draw button and watched in shock as the following cards appeared on the video screen in this order: King, ten, Queen, and Ace of hearts (see photo). I had really lucked out and beat the 1 in 178,365 odds when I drew the four cards I needed for a royal flush.

 

The moral of this story is this. Prepare yourself for that inevitable royal flush drought, and here are some tips that can help you.

• Have a sufficient bankroll when you play video poker.
• Take full advantage of a casino’s generous free play and bounce back to help preserve your bankroll.
• Consider playing games like 8/5 Bonus Poker or NSU Deuces Wild that offer mini-jackpots in casinos with generous cashback and bounce back. 
• Be sure you play every hand accurately. (Consider investing in a video poker software program that keeps track of your playing accuracy while you practice your playing strategy. Playing mistakes in a casino can be costly.)

Lastly, never say never when you play video poker because you might luck out (as I did) and hit a royal flush even when the odds are very long.

This expert strategy guide explains how to play blackjack when you’ve been dealt a pair of 4s. If you want to activate a lower house edge in blackjack games—you need to make the right decisions by using basic blackjack strategy. 

BLACKJACK STRATEGY GAMEPLAY WHEN DEALT A PAIR OF 4S

Knowing how to play a pair of 4s can be tricky especially when the stakes are real and the value of the dealer’s upcard is placing you under pressure. This, how to play a pair of 4s blackjack guide is written by blackjack expert Henry Tamburin who’s figured it all out for you, so you’ll know what the best decisions are. 

POSSIBLE ACTIONS WHEN DEALT WITH A PAIR OF 4S IN BLACKJACK

When you are dealt a pair of 4s in blackjack you have three viable playing options:

• to hit on a pair of 4s

• to split a pair of 4s

• to double down a pair of 4s

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN FACED WITH A PAIR OF 4S IN BLACKJACK

Which blackjack strategy you should invoke depends upon:

• what the dealer’s upcard is
• the number of decks of cards being used
• whether double down after pair splitting is allowed

BLACKJACK RULES AND THE USE OF BASIC STRATEGY ON PAIRS OF 4S

When it comes to a pair of 4s (total hand value = 8), if you want to increase your chances of winning, this blackjack tips strategy guide explains in what situations you should hit, split or double down. Because it contains expert, blackjack game odds analysis, it will help you navigate blackjack rules for pairs of 4s and the use of basic strategy.

Pair of 4s blackjack playing strategy #1

The basic strategy for a double- or multi-deck game where doubling down after pair splitting is not allowed (NDAS) is to

• Always hit regardless of the dealer’s upcard

Pair of 4s blackjack playing strategy #2

If the blackjack rules allow doubling down after pair splitting (DAS)

• You should split against a dealer’s upcard of 5 and 6 

Pair of 4s blackjack playing strategy #3

In a single-deck game, the basic playing strategy is 

• If NDAS, double down your total of 8 against a dealer’s upcard of 5 and 6; otherwise hit 
• If DAS, split against dealer’s upcard of 4, 5, or 6; otherwise hit

The following color-coded blackjack charts summarize the basic strategy for a pair of 4s.
(Note: P = Split; H = Hit; Dh = Double Down if allowed otherwise hit.)

DOUBLE- AND MULTI-DECK WITH NDAS

DOUBLE- AND MULTI-DECK WITH DAS

SINGLE-DECK WITH NDAS

SINGLE-DECK WITH DAS

REASON FOR USING BLACKJACK STRATEGIES WHEN DEALT PAIRS OF 4S 

Whether you should hit, split, or double down is based on one of these three criteria:

• You will win more money on average
• You will lose less money on average
• You will turn a losing hand into a winning hand on average

EXAMPLES FOR WHEN TO SPLIT PAIRS OF 4S IN BLACKJACK

For example, suppose you are dealt a pair of 4s in a six-deck game with DAS and the dealer’s upcard is a 6, the basic playing strategy (shown in the above chart) states to split. The reason is because using a blackjack splitting strategy has a greater positive expectation of winning than either hitting or doubling down.

In other words, you will win more money in the long run by playing two hands, each starting with a 4, than by either hitting or doubling an 8 (i.e, a pair of 4s).

Here’s another example: suppose you are dealt a pair of 4s in a six-deck game with NDAS and the dealer’s upcard is a 3. Doubling and splitting have negative expectations whereas hitting has a positive expectation, making it the best play.

RESPLITTING A PAIR OF 4S WITH EXAMPLES

Understanding the strategy of blackjack pair splitting and knowing exactly when to resplit those 4s can significantly impact your long-term success at blackjack tables.

A final example is being dealt a pair of 4s in a single-deck game against a dealer’s 6 upcard. If the rules specify NDAS, all three viable playing options (hitting, splitting, and doubling) have positive expectations but doubling is more positive making it the better play.

If the playing rules allow you to resplit a pair of 4s, then it is advantageous for you  to use a blackjack resplitting strategy. For example:

1. If you were dealt a pair of 4s against a dealer’s 5 upcard with DAS, you should split.
2. Suppose on the first 4, you are dealt another 4 on the draw.  You should resplit to form a third hand.
3. If the casino allows resplits up to a total of four hands, then you should resplit again if you are dealt another 4. Resplitting pairs is a player-favorable option that you should always take advantage of. 

IF THE BLACKJACK RULES DON’T ALLOW DOUBLING DOWN ON 8

If the blackjack playing rules don’t allow you to double down on an 8, then you should hit (see single-deck chart above with NDAS).

*** For even more blackjack strategies, check out our article on blackjack side bets. ***

IMPACT OF BLACKJACK RULES AND USE OF BASIC STRATEGY ON PAIRS OF 4S  

When facing a pair of 4s in blackjack, mastering basic blackjack strategy is crucial for any player aiming to improve their odds of winning. By integrating this knowledge into your overall approach to learning how to play a pair of 4s in blackjack, you can gain a long-term edge of increasing your chances of winning. 

You will always win more or lose less if you follow the above basic playing strategy for splitting, hitting, or doubling down on a pair of 4s.

[For a complete basic playing strategy for any set of playing rules, consult Chapter 3 in the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.]

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS RELATED TO PAIRS OF 4S IN BLACKJACK

Is basic strategy used to decide how to play a pair of 4s?

Yes, because basic strategy is a rule-based structure players can use for playing blackjack when faced with pairs of 4s, basic strategy suggests the mathematically advantageous play in the long run.

Does card counting give you an advantage when playing pairs of 4s?

Using basic strategy, the recommendation is you to split against a dealer's 5 or 6, but some players deviate from this and double their blackjack hand if the card count is 2 or higher. 

Card counting is a higher-level blackjack strategy that deviates from basic strategy rules. With a pair of 4s, card counters could work out that certain value cards are due which could lead them to go against basic strategy and try to gain a stronger advantage over the house.   

What is the best way to play a pair of 4s in blackjack?

If a player has a pair of 4s, it’s best to split if the dealer's upcard is 5 or 6. Also, it’s a strong play to double after splitting (if blackjack rules allow) if the dealer's upcard is 5 or 6. When the dealer’s upcard value isn’t 5 or 6, the best thing to do is to hit to try and improve your hand.

Should pairs of 4s be resplit in blackjack games?

The best way to play a pair of 4s from a single blackjack hand is to resplit if dealt another 4 and blackjack rules allow resplit. It’s best to continue to resplit multiple pairs of 4s if you can.

When to hit with a pair of 4s in blackjack hands?

Try to improve your pair of 4s hand by hitting if the value of the dealer’s upcard isn’t 5 or 6.

*** For further reading, check out our article on roulette odds and craps strategy. ***

Many, if not the majority of craps and roulette players, find that they wish to increase or decrease their bets but can’t figure out when to do so and for how much. I’ve received queries from players asking me when do I increase or decrease my betting levels. Some writers say that they get frozen in place and don’t do anything. This seems to upset them as they see other players happily expanding the size of their bets and seemingly winning loads of money.

I hate to disappoint these frozen players but I rarely range my bets on other shooters at craps or at the roulette table. I bet what I bet and leave games where I don’t have an edge when things have gone against me long enough for me to think I’ve had it; I’m done. I have no problem leaving games for a rest or to do some other type of activity. My opinion is that the games are always there but I don’t have to always be there too.

[Please note: The casino has an edge on every bet a player makes at the games and, unless these players have an edge themselves, whatever money they bet is prone to be grounded out by that house edge. Winnings of players are the players’ money and should be handled as such. Ideas such as “I am betting the casino’s money” after winning is a wrong-headed idea – and a costly one too.]

Yes, there are methods for increasing one’s bet after a good run that have been used over the years by players and since these methods have lasted so long there must be a call for such things and a desire to adhere to these betting methods. So here come some of them.

PROGRESSIVE BETTING METHODS

Interestingly enough progressive betting methods can be both positive and negative. They are positive methods when you are increasing your bets while winning in order to garner even more money, perhaps during a hot streak, and they are negative methods when you are increasing your bets while losing in order to make up your losses for that session or that extended period of time. During a cold streak many methods have been used to get out of such losing streaks.

The Martingales: The Most Famous Negative Betting Methods

Most casino players have either used or at least read about the most famous negative betting method called the Martingale. We gambler writers have been writing about this negative progression for decades. Most of us have railed against it. 

The Martingale is a simple progressive method of increasing one’s bet in a losing streak based on the belief that I have to win sometime! While theoretically true, this negative progression calls for ultimately steep increases of bets by doubling the losing bet that came before. 

Here is an example: $10 loss, increase to $20, loss; increase to $40, loss; increase to $80, loss; increase to $160, loss; increase to $320, loss; increase to $640 and hopefully a win because most casinos will not allow a player to increase a $10 wager to over $1,000. 

Your total loss on the above negative progression would be (hold your breath!): immense for a $10 player.

If you won on any of the steps, the win is only your initial $10. That’s a lot of money to risk trying to win a $10 bet! And that is all you would win on such a dangerous escalation of wagers.

Now you see the problem with the Martingale. Because the house has set a limit on how much you can bet, the Martingale can only go up about seven (sometimes eight) steps before being stopped by the house’s maximum wager. So, yes, if you could use the Martingale for an extended time such as a billion increases and had enough money to do so, you’d have to win one and get all your losses back.

[Please note: Yes, there would be an infinitesimal chance to lose a billion hands in a row but don’t worry about that as you’d probably be dead before such a rotten thing happened. But you can see the real picture with this negative progression bet and it is not a good one.]

Many novice players think they created this system of negative progression in their first forays into the casinos. After all, it does have a kind of logic to it. I also created it on my first visit to the casinos long, long ago. It was at the now long-defunct Sands in Atlantic City and I did well with it for a few days but then the hammer fell on me and I lost the entire string of bets. I was betting black at roulette and the roof caved in on me. That was not fun in the least. I’m a relatively fast learner and I certainly learned my lesson during that ill-fated trip.

VARIATIONS OF THE MARTINGALE

There have been many variations of the Martingale, most of them even more dangerous than the original. 

You have the Grand Martingale where you increase your bet by more than double so that a win brings in more money than just the initial bet. That sequence can go like this: $10, $25, $60, $150, $350, $800 and then the house limit. 

Or the Take the Big Shot Martingale where you might go something like this: $10, $50, $150, $490, $1,000 and limit hit. 

You can also do severely limited mini-Martingales such as: $10, $20, $40 and you stop your betting right there. After this you go back down to $10 with a prayer on your lips that you can have a hot streak to make up for your loss.

Should You Try the Martingale? No, I’ll explain why: The Martingale basically gives you a very small win but you might have this small win many times before the dreaded day or night comes when you run the gamut. Just walk around a casino and check the scoreboards. In a couple of hours you should see the dreaded seven or eight losing sequences. It is not worth the possible big loss.

You could also go through the entire losing sequence on the first round of betting.

[Please note: You do not have to just bet one proposition as I did with black at roulette. You could bet anything. You could do $10 on High; then $20 on Odd,  and then bet $40 on black; then $80 on Low and so forth. It is the sequence that counts not the actual proposition you bet. The hit comes no matter what propositions you are betting.]

And a true word to the wise: Never bet an inside number at roulette or one of the proposition bets at craps using a Martingale. Hell awaits you if you do.

POSITIVE PROGRESSIONS

If you are thinking of trying to capitalize on a winning streak then a positive progression is far, far better than a Martingale negative progression. The reason is quite simple; you are using a win to attempt to advance and the losses won’t climb precipitously if you use your head.

The most common form of positive progressions is a system called the Paroli or, a name that is far more commonly used, the parley (a variation of the Paroli name). It is in dispute who “Paroli” was, if he or she actually was anyone, or whether Paroli is some kind of inanimate object or animal for that matter, but the method has been around for centuries.

It is three doubles of winning bets in a row; $10, a win; $20, a win; $40, a win and then back down to $10 with a total win of $70. The Paroli can go further as in making a fourth bet of $80 if that third bet of $40 wins. Four wins in a row can happen but with each step up the danger of a loss always stares you in the face and it does wipe out all those wins.

Still, even those wipe outs can’t put you in a dungeon as can the Martingale or its various alternatives such as the Grand Martingale.

MORE ON THE PAROLI SYSTEM

Some casino players enjoy parleying only once; so a win on a $10 bet will be parleyed to $20 but a win on that sees the player drop right back down to $10. This would be a common method and you’ll see it with even-money bets at roulette and maybe even on some of the two-to-one proposition bets as well. At craps you might see this on the Pass Line but more than likely on the Place bets, especially of the six and eight.

A lengthened Paroli can look like this: $10, $10, $20, $20, $30, $30, $40, $40 and (with greed in one’s heart) on upwards! 

[Please note: You can play an aggressive Paroli as above or a moderate Paroli in its original form or anything in between or higher or lower and the advantage to doing so is simple: Your losses will not come anywhere near a negative system. Yes, you can have great luck in consecutive wins only to lose that last parley and then, yes, defeat.]

WHAT ABOUT DROPPING YOUR BETTING LEVEL?

There is a betting system that I find intriguing and that is actually lowering one’s betting levels in sessions where things are not going well. For example, let us say you are a $30 player at roulette and you have now lost $300 – assuming you are betting even-money or two-to-one proposition bets. You now drop down to betting only $15 to ride out what you see as a poor streak. You will double the number of decisions you can play and perhaps your luck will turn. If you can get back to even or close to even then you can decide if you wish to go back to $30 a spin.

On inside roulette bets you can do the same but the inside game has a walloping finish when you hit an inside number as the payout can make up for relatively long losing streaks. So here you have to be cautious and considerate in determining how much to bet.

With craps the same applies, but again the Place bets seem to be better for reducing one’s total betting amount. With Pass Line and Come bets you should be betting as low as you can go and make use of the Odds bets, so reducing your base bets here would probably not be called for.

SUMMARY

The negative betting progressions are too dangerous, especially if you plan to spend much time in the casinos. If you are going once or twice in a lifetime, you might take the chance. (I wouldn’t!) A wipe out, which would be inevitable given a lot of playing sessions, would put a severe crimp in your gaming fun and probably make you curl up into the fetal position once you go to bed for a terrible night’s sleep.

The positive progressions are probably best if you want to try for a bigger win. Of course, no matter what you do with positive progressions the house edge is always working against you. Your bankroll is your money; your wins are your money too. The casino doesn’t care what money its edge works on but you should. All money you use is better off at the end of it all in your pocket or purse than it is in the casino’s coffers. That’s the real lesson here.

So what do you want to do? Try to stave off defeat with a foolish Martingale as I once did? Or do you want to try to extend your winnings by increasing your bet as you make some money? Or do you simply wish to bet at your normal levels and just enjoy the process and whatever wins or losses come your way?

I know my choice here; but what is your choice?

All the best in and out of the casinos! 

After nearly 50 years of playing blackjack, I could write a book that would contain all the misinformation on blackjack I’ve read in books and the Internet, and heard in casinos (of all places) and from fellow players. But rather than write the book, I decided instead to write this article for your enlightenment.

Let’s begin our journey in the casino. Here, you’ll find misinformation about blackjack strategy pontificated by dealers, pit bosses, casino managers, and, of course, by your fellow players. And let’s not forget about those little pamphlets located in racks in the casino that supposedly explain how to play blackjack to novices. Here’s just a tidbit of misinformation from the above sources. 

Many moons ago when I was actively playing in a newly opened casino in Atlantic City, I picked up the pamphlet on “How to Play Blackjack” written by none other than the Grand Master of Blackjack. Here is some of his wisdom.

• The objective of the game is to get as close as possible to 21.
• Always stand on 12–16 when the dealer shows a small card.
• Never split 8s.
• Stand on 16 against a dealer 10.

Do you believe a casino corporation would allow someone to write this drivel, and then publish it in a pamphlet to give away free to the public?  And this isn’t the first time I’ve read misinformation in casino pamphlets. But wait … it gets better (or worse) when you sit down and actually play against an expert-on-blackjack live casino dealer.

“Sir, do you really want to split those 8s against my queen? You are probably going to bust so I’d suggest you stand.”
“Sir, taking even money is the best deal in the casino.”
“Sir, you are the last player to act. Do you really want to hit that 12 (against my 2)?”
“Sir, are you sure you want to double that (soft) 18.”
“Sir, surrendering that 16 wasn’t a good play since you just lost half of your bet.”
“Sir, I can’t tell you how to play your hand, but if it were me, I wouldn’t split those 9s against my strong card (9).”

I’ve even had floor supervisors look at my playing strategy card (which I use for camouflage when I play) and then proceed to tell me the strategy is “all wrong.” I could go on and on with the advice I’ve received from the myriad of casino employees but I think you get the point, which is this: most dealers (and casino bosses) know very little about blackjack playing strategies so you should never ask them for advice. (If you have to do this, you shouldn’t be in a casino risking your money playing blackjack in the first place.)

But if you think dealers and pit bosses say crazy stuff about blackjack strategy, it palls in comparison to what fellow players spout. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been lectured by another player about my blackjack-playing prowess. Here’s a very small sampling of what I’ve had to endure.

“I wouldn’t hit that 12 if I were you.” 
“Are you crazy splitting those 4s?” 
“You hit and took away the dealer’s bust card. Are you happy?”
“Come on; stop hitting those damn 16s against a 10 because you’re screwing up the flow of the cards.”
“Thanks to your stupidity, I just lost a hundred bucks.”
“Brother, you don’t know a thing about blackjack.”

The list is endless. Now I don’t want to give you the impression that every time you play blackjack you are going to be harassed by a fellow player. Getting unwanted comments from seated players is the exception rather than the rule but, unfortunately, it sometimes happens. My advice to you if someone starts telling you how to play your hands is to simply tell that person this: Look, it’s my money and I’m going to play my hands the way I want to, and if you don’t like it, play somewhere else. (This usually will shut the player up, or if you’re lucky, he or she will take your advice and leave.)

The point is this: You should never listen to the advice of a fellow player as to how to play your hands. (It’s been my experience that players who offer advice to other players know less about  blackjack strategy than dealers or pit bosses, and the latter is scraping the bottom of the barrel.)

Let’s now take a trip to the movies to watch “21,” a story about the famous MIT blackjack card counting team. (Even if you saw the movie, stay with me.) You would think that a movie about card counting would contain accurate information about the game. I mean there are plenty of well-known blackjack experts that they could have consulted on this important point. Unfortunately, this was not the case. I saw the movie and here are just a few of the blackjack blunders that I jotted down. (My comments are in parentheses.) 

• One MIT team member says this to another member: “Splitting eights against tens and Aces is for suckers.” (Wrong … the mathematically correct play is to split. The producer could have read a blackjack book to get this right.)
• “The objective of blackjack is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over.” (We’ve heard this nonsense before, haven’t we?)
• "There’s not as much strategy as people think when you play blackjack.” (Say what?)
• The card counting team walks into the casino together. (Card counting teams never do this to avoid being associated with one another.)
• Two high-stakes card counters playing on the same table. (I don’t think so. Card counting teams don’t do this.)
• Movie gives the impression that all card counters are geniuses. (This is not true. Even though the MIT members were geniuses, people from all walks of life with average intelligence can learn how to win at blackjack.)
• The team seems to be winning all the time and never loses. (That’s not true. Card counters have a slim advantage so they will have plenty of losing sessions, but in the long run, they will win more than they lose.)
• The movie shows the team tipping casino personnel. (In reality, card counters are not big tippers because it could easily wipe out the small edge they have by card counting.)
• One team member is brought to the casino’s boiler room and beaten up. (I’ll agree that in the old days, some card counters were roughed up. But nowadays, that doesn’t happen due to big settlements won by astute lawyers defending card counters who were wrongfully abused by casino personnel.) 

There are more blackjack gaffes in the movie but you get the point: Don’t believe everything you see or hear in a Hollywood movie about the game of blackjack. Like the famous comment by the surveillance guy in “Rain Man”: “We know he isn’t counting because no one could possibly count down a six-deck shoe.”

Lastly, we come to the blackjack “advice” on the Internet. There is some very accurate information on the web but, unfortunately, there is a ton of misinformation out there.  Let’s face it … anyone can post anything about blackjack on message boards, or on his own or another’s website. If you don’t know the background of the persons who are offering advice about blackjack strategy, I’d suggest you google their name to find out if they are reputable players, authors, or better yet, blackjack mathematicians. Otherwise, you might be reading a whole lot more misinformation about the game.

Roulette involves a whole lot more than just betting on random outcomes spin after spin. To really get the most out of the game you need to avoid making the mistakes many Roulette players tend to make. Having spent over 20 years studying the game, developing strategies and observing a myriad of the behaviours we players make. I have identified what to avoid and what to factor into our game-play.

MY BEST ROULETTE TIPS ARE

1. Mind your bankroll
2. Don't get carried away by winning and losing streaks
3. Losing phases & your roulette numbers
4. Stop loss alert
5. Don't chase your losses
6. Put time limit on your roulette sessions
7. One roulette wheel is as good as another
8. Adopt a roulette strategy
9. Forget about myths
10. Lucky & unlucky

Often overlooked by many Roulette players, managing one’s bankroll is a fundamental aspect of being able to last longer at the table. Whether your plan is to bet big in an all or nothing scenario or to try and build winnings or limit losses slowly you should think about how quickly you’ve lost money in the past because of staking too much of your casino bankroll. 

I wouldn’t recommend risking more than 5% of your bankroll each spin and when you win don’t get carried away by betting too much more because winning streaks don’t last.

Whether through luck or skill when pattern playing or using some other Roulette strategy, it’s important to remember that a run of losses will follow a run of wins. So, factor in a stop loss and/or a reduction to your bet size. I can’t ever recall watching a player keep on winning when all their numbers were hitting without a losing phase turning the pages on a winning chapter. 

I’ve seen Roulette players burn though their winnings including their original bankroll when their winning streak had ended as they doubled down trying to maintain the advantage they had. Easy come, easy go, don’t get carried away so that when the losses start, you’re able to stop to protect most of your winnings.

If you note down a win/loss ratio this is a worthwhile guide. Of course, if you’re always changing your numbers it’ll become problematic trying to make sense of ongoing stats unless your choosing of different numbers is part of a wider strategy.

Applying a stop loss is one of the most powerful tools a Roulette player must use to overcome losing phases. This will protect your bankroll so you’re able to bet normally when your numbers start hitting. You should set a rule for when to trigger a stop loss and when to start betting again. 

For example, when I bet on the even chances, such as Red or Black, when I lose three times in a row my stop loss is triggered. And I only start betting again when one of my numbers connected to the colour I’m following occurs. This way in the long run I end up saving many more losses than had I bet through losing phases.

If you can manage your bankroll and understand that however you play the game, you’ll experience winning and losing phases, you shouldn’t get into a position where you want to chase your losses. Whilst is true that you can sometimes recover your previous losses this behaviour can lead to higher losses. If you factor into your game the fact that you might end up losing your bankroll even if you’ve played your best game, you’re less likely to get the urge to chase losses. 

When you lose at the chasing losses game it wrecks your Roulette experience. True professional Roulette players avoid chasing after losses.

For me a Roulette session is one group of games some of which is bet on in any one day. There’s no point in winning if you’re then going to end up losing what you’ve won all within the same 24-hour period. The hardest part of winning proper is to add 25% to 50% to your bankroll. Of course, sometimes we’re able to gain 100% and even much more. But on average the Roulette Pro is looking for small increases each session and he doesn’t want to be taking too much time to achieve his aims. 

I’d say that setting aside one to two hours per session should be enough to either win, lose or come out at breakeven. Putting a time limit on your Roulette sessions should help you to focus and refine the way you play. 

When some players are losing on a Roulette wheel, they tend to want to change wheels. But the real issue is not the wheel it’s their inability to understand that losses will follow wins and to wait for wins to begin to occur again. It’s wrong to think that this or that wheel is unlucky or lucky merely because you’ve lost or won on it. The game is random and over many games on any wheel with any set of numbers you will win and lose at the same levels. 

It’s true that sometimes a player will change wheels and end up winning, but this is only because the outcomes favoured his bet selection at the time of the change yet it doesn’t follow that changing wheels will always result in wins and the wheel you’ve left might start to be favourable to the numbers you were betting on. As they say, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side of the fence.  

You might have your own way of deciding what to bet on, but online casino Roulette involves a whole lot more if you’re going to say you’re sticking to a strategy. A proper strategy should be able to explain when to bet and when not to, when to increase and decrease wagers or flat bet, when to stop betting and when to resume betting again…there’s a lot more to a decent Roulette strategy aside from the reasoning connected to the bet selection that should also be explained as well as the stats and odds. So, think about choosing a strategy that covers all the above aspects and more so that you stand a good chance of winning or at the very least not losing too much of your bankroll.

You might believe some or other players may have told you some Roulette myths such as, a dealer can cause you to lose or help you to win. With a ball spinning several times in the opposite direction to a wheel that is rotating before the ball bounces around on its way to a numbered slot, it’s irrational to hold the belief that any dealer can achieve what’s known as dealer signature to the extent that s/he can cause a game to go for or against your bet selection. If this were possible clear evidence would’ve surfaced within the last 100 years. 

A casino’s advantage is its house edge not a love or hate relationship a dealer might have with you. Moreover, dealers can’t even see who you are when you’re playing online Roulette.

Luck plays a major part of the Roulette experience moreover when you’re not sticking to a rule-based strategy. There can be times when you may feel lucky or unlucky before starting or during a session of games and the overall outcome win/lose might coincide with your feelings. However, it’s impossible to determine the likelihood of whether if you could win or lose based solely upon the signals those feelings might be indicating to you.

Rather than focusing on the inanimate, it’s more beneficial to turn your inner abilities (your mindset) on structing a strategy that is able of maintaining fair results during the random nature that is the game of Roulette. There’re many things you can do to organise the way you play so that your focus is on the probability of your bet selections either winning or losing including utilising many of the above tips. 

But of course, some people enjoy the emotional experience that the luck factor offers and indeed Roulette can prove you to be unlucky moreover when betting on more numbers in games when you don’t win too often or lucky when you bet on fewer numbers in games and end up winning at roulette often.  

If there is one playing decision that seems to confound most blackjack players, it’s knowing when to split a pair (and when not to). Don’t believe me? Assume you are playing a six-deck game with the dealer standing on soft 17 (S17) and doubling down after pair splitting is allowed (DAS).

WHEN TO SPLIT THE FOLLOWING INITIAL TWO-CARD BLACKJACK HANDS VS. THE DEALER’S UPCARD?

1. 9-9 vs 9 - Split
2. 4-4 vs 5 - Split if DAS  (If NDAS, Hit)
3. 6-6 vs 2 - Split if DAS (If NDAS, Hit)
4. 10-10 vs 6 - Stand
5. 8-8 vs A with surrender offered - Surrender (If H17, otherwise, Split)
6. 2-2 vs 2 - Split if DAS (If NDAS, Hit)
7. 9-9 vs 7 - Stand

Note:
DAS = doubling down after pair splitting is allowed
NDAS = doubling down after pair splitting is not allowed
H17 = Dealer will hit soft 17
S17 = Dealer will stand on soft 17

The mathematically correct way to play the above hands is: 

If you got a few of the above playing decisions wrong, don’t fret because you are not alone.

The one playing rule that mostly affects the strategy for pair splitting is whether the casino rules allow a player to double down after splitting a pair (DAS) or not (NDAS). Therefore, the tables and charts below show you when to split your pairs when the rules specify DAS or NDAS.

Note: The following strategy is specifically for a multi-deck game (i.e., 4, 6, or 8 deck-decks being dealt). It could also be used for single- and double-deck games without too much loss in expectation. However, if you are interested, you can find the complete pair splitting strategy for double- and single-deck games in Chapter 2 of my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.

(To use the color-coded charts below, locate your two-card hand along the first column, and then move along the top row of the table for the entry corresponding to the dealer’s upcard. The letter P signifies split. Note the special rule for splitting 8s against a dealer’s ace upcard with H17.)

SPLITTING STRATEGY WITH DAS

SPLITTING STRATEGY WITH NDAS

Notice that when you play a game with NDAS, you will be pair splitting less often than when the blackjack rules specify NDAS. Also note that if the rules specify H17 (vs S17), you would surrender a pair of 8s against a dealer’s ace upcard (instead of splitting).

Here are some examples of how you would use the above pair splitting strategy.

1. You are dealt a pair of 4s and the dealer’s upcard is a 5. If the rules specify DAS, you would split; if instead the rules specify NDAS, you would not split (hit instead).
2. You are dealt a pair of 7s and the dealer’s upcard is a 7. You would split.
3. You are dealt a pair of 3s and the dealer’s upcard is a 3. If the rules are DAS, you should split; if NDAS, don’t split (hit instead).

If you are playing a DD game, there are only a few changes to the above pair splitting strategy with DAS.

1. Split a pair of 6s against a dealer’s 7 upcard (instead of hitting) 
2. Split a pair of 7s against a dealer’s 8 upcard (instead of hitting) and
3. If DAS, even if H17, don’t surrender 8s vs Ace.

For a single-deck game, there are a few more changes to the above blackjack strategy. If you play mostly single-deck games, I encourage you learning the single-deck pair splitting strategy summarized in the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.

First published on: 16/12/2019