The recently opened Encore Boston Harbor casino is situated just 14 minutes away from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, home of the famous MIT blackjack team. The team has been out of operation for nearly 20 years, but that location begs a question: What would the world’s most famous card counting syndicate have done with a new casino in such close proximity? “We would have played it until we got kicked out and couldn’t play it anymore,” Andy Bloch told 888.com. A veteran-member of MIT blackjack and later a successful professional poker player, Bloch added, “I don’t know what the rules are at Encore, but I am sure we would have figured out a way to beat the game. We did it at a lot of other casinos – including Foxwoods and Mohegan sun, which both opened near MIT.”

While there is no telling what MIT’s current crop of math geniuses are cooking up for the New England outpost of Encore, its opening does present a good time to revisit the groundbreaking blackjack team that upended casinos around the world and revolutionized the concept of advantage play. 

The team was founded by Bill Kaplan (no relation to the author), fresh from managing a group of card counters in Las Vegas. After weathering player burnout there, he relocated to Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he planned on attending Harvard Business School. “I was sitting in a Chinese restaurant [in Cambridge], talking about all this, and some MIT kids came over,” he told Boston magazine. “They said, ‘Are you talking about blackjack? We’ve been playing for a few months, trying to make money.’”

Suddenly, a new crew fell into Kaplan’s lap. In 1980, the MIT blackjack team was born. As Kaplan explained it, the team’s success was largely based on intent and organization. “We ran it as a business,” he said. “Training, extensive training, checkout procedures, two hours of perfect play, leaving the table right. It was really run more tightly than most businesses.”

Maybe so, But it can be argued that people who work for most businesses do not casually misplace six-figures worth of said business’s money.  Such was the case when one of the MIT players haphazardly forgot a paper bag loaded with $125,000 of blackjack revenue. He left it in an MIT classroom. A janitor spotted the sack of cash and stashed it away for safekeeping. With the help of Alan Dershowitz (who helped defend OJ Simpson and got tangled up in the recent Jeffrey Epstein scandal), the money (which was originally thought to be drug related) was returned.

Outrageous as it sounds, misplacing $125,000 might be easy when you’re making much more. According to former MIT player Mike Aponte, “MIT won over 10-million in six years. It’s not like everyone became a multimillionaire, but it was a relatively small group of people. I put in $1,500 in the summer. By November, my investment was worth $100,000. Then I just kept rolling it over. “

Beyond the MIT team’s business sense, another important reason for its success stemmed from players operating at peak levels when it really mattered. “There were people who played better in the casinos than they did during practice sessions,” said Jon Hirschtick who played on MIT from 1984 until 1993. “My best play happened in the casino, for high stakes, under pressure. A lot of blackjack players are ADD; so they can focus more [than people without the disorder] but cannot control it. One thing we can do, though, is focus on cards coming out of a shoe.

For all of the focus that is required to win at blackjack – Hirschtick remembers sitting with a fellow player in Atlantic City and discussing the high-end cars they could afford to buy – plenty of entertaining anecdotes did emerge. One of the best concerns John Chang, an MIT blackjack wizard on whom Kevin Spacey’s “21” character was partially based. 

Chang became overly recognizable as a card-counter and, as a result, drew heat that radiated to his fellow players. “My teammates didn’t want to play with me unless I got into a fantastic disguise,” he said. “My girlfriend told me she could dress me up as a woman. Her shoes were my size and she had everything I needed. I did it three times: in Illinois, in the Bahamas and in Atlantic City.

Blackjack table with card counting method

The first two outings went off without a hitch. Atlantic City, though, was another story. “I was sitting at the table, next to a Chinese woman; I saw her dainty hands and put mine under the table,” Chang continued. “Upstairs [in surveillance], they were looking at my hands and laughing. Then an Asian host came over and whispered into my ear, ‘We know who you are.’ I got up to leave and some security guard said to me, ‘Lose the pearls, Esmeralda.’  It was embarrassing. I ran around the casino to make sure I wasn’t being followed as I made an exit.”

Other times, Chang and his collaborators left on their own accord, before things got too hairy. He remembers another play in AC, one in which they were tracking shuffles, when his partner got dealt a 19 on one hand and an 11 on the other. He knew that the next two cards would be a 2 and a 10. The guy doubled on both, correctly expecting 21s. As Chang remembers it, “I said, ‘Let’s get out of here before they arrest us.’” 

They successfully escaped the casino but MIT could not outrun changing tolerance levels within the gambling dens they frequented. By 1997, the best spot to play was MGM Grand in Las Vegas. The casino took the biggest action and no gender-defying disguises were required. 

That year, on June 28, 1997, the night of the Mike Tyson vs. Evander Holyfield championship fight, things felt particularly promising.  “I was sitting at an MGM table, with all yellow chips [worth $1,000 each], ahead $70,000; the fight had started and there was enormous action in the pit; nobody raised an eyebrow,” Chang said. As blackjack games raged on the gambling floor, the third round neared its end, inside MGM Grand Garden Arena, and a frustrated Mike Tyson chomped off the top of Holyfield’s ear. “Then, after the fight ended prematurely, there was a riot. Tables got overturned, chips got stolen out of racks, people got arrested. This coincided with Kerry Packer winning $26-million and everybody became chicken-shit about taking big action.”

It was not the end of the MIT team. But it was the end of an era for high-stakes advantage players. The real wind down came three years later, in 2000, brought on, at least partially, by an MIT player’s disgruntled girlfriend who identified team-members to key people at the now defunct Griffin Detective Agency. Griffin maintained a database of cheaters and advantage players, erroneously making no distinctions between the two. With most of the team-members made, playing in the casinos quickly became untenable.

Some MIT counters moved on to different forms of gambling. Others found new businesses to succeed in and there are those who continued to plug away at blackjack. Chang falls into the latter camp. While he more or less remembers MIT’s biggest win – “As a team, it was $400,000 or $500,000 on a Super Bowl weekend” – Chang tries to keep from getting too hung up about his own short-term performance. “I don’t think about money in terms of what I can buy,” he said nonchalantly. “I’m just playing a game.”

November 6, 2019

By Michael Kaplan

Michael Kaplan
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    Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He has written extensively on gambling for publications such as Wired, Playboy, Cigar Aficionado, New York Post and New York Times. He is the author of four books including Aces and Kings: Inside Stories and Million-Dollar Strategies from Poker’s Greatest Players.

    He’s been known to do a bit of gambling when the timing seems right.

    Michael Kaplan
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    888casino was in pole position at the 2019 EGR Awards ceremony at Grosvenor House, in London. An illustrious gala event was hosted on Thursday, October 24, 2019, with hundreds of e-Gaming aficionados in attendance. The prestigious EGR Awards is regarded as the gold standard of the online gaming industry, with awards for gaming excellence across multiple categories. Several headline categories are showcased, including Affiliate of the Year, Bingo Operator, Casino Operator, Mobile Operator, Operator of the Year, Poker Operator, Rising Star, Socially Responsible Operator, and Sports Betting Operator. Nominations in each category are certainly impressive, none more so for a casino operator than the EGR Casino Operator of the Year Award.

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    November 3, 2019

    At 888 we have a lot of jackpots. As a courtesy, we like to call our players to congratulate them and answer any queries they might have. 

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    Our winner lives in Kent, but is originally from East Africa. Rather down on his luck, E.Y was sleeping on his friend’s couch at the time that he hit the jackpot. 

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    October 22, 2019

    By 888 Casino Editorial Team

    888 Casino Editorial Team
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    888 Casino is one of the world’s premier online casino destinations. As pioneers in the online gaming industry, and part of the prestigious 888holdings group, 888 Casino first opened the doors to players back in 1997 and more than 25 million members have enjoyed our multi-award winning casino games and promotions ever since. 

    888 Casino Editorial Team

    It's a hive of activity at the casino with nattily-clad dealers hosting rollicking games of live roulette, live baccarat, and live blackjack. Eager players swarm to these gaming enclaves, ready to place their bets. The unmistakable allure of the casino captivates our attention in ways few hedonistic pursuits can. Words like engaging, immersive, and thrilling come to mind, but they simply don't do justice to the unmistakable pomp and grandeur of the casino. Whether it's a sprawling land-based casino on the iconic Las Vegas strip, or a fully licensed online casino, players cannot seem to get enough of the scintillating attractions on offer.

    THE WORLD'S MOST EXCITING CASINO CARD GAMES

    The card players among us are instantly drawn to strategy-based games like Blackjack, and Texas Hold'em. These feature-rich attractions come in many entertaining variants. The likes of Side Bets Multihand Blackjack, Side Bets American Blackjack, and 4 Decks Super Stakes Blackjack abound. These casino card games test your mettle, with tactical and strategic plays at every juncture. Blackjack, a classic casino card game, is played against the dealer – not against other players. The objective of the game is simple: Beat the dealer's hand total without exceeding 21. Blackjack is achieved if a player scores 21 with an Ace and a 10-value card (10, Jack, Queen, King). Blackjack typically pays: 3:2, although a growing number of casinos has the less favorable payout of 6:5.

    One would be remiss to dismiss the social aspect of blackjack. The game is enjoyed by casual players and high rollers all over the world. From the illustrious Monte Carlo casino in Monaco to the extravagant Macau, from the seaside charm Atlantic City casinos, to the magnetic appeal of Las Vegas, Nevada. Casino card games dazzle the senses; they are the wildly entertaining attractions that pepper our screens in Hollywood blockbusters. The inimitable Texas Hold’em Poker reigns supreme as the ultimate competitive poker game. Players go head-to-head against one another in pursuit of the highest-ranking hand, with two hole cards, The Flop, Turn, and River to boot. From the grand stage at the WSOP at the Rio All Suites Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas to the WPT, ANZPT, Aussie Millions, and beyond.

    BACCARAT

    The world was introduced to baccarat hundreds of years ago. This charming casino card game is the darling of the well-heeled. Aristocracy, nobility, and royalty have all enjoyed baccarat in all its glory. Players are required to bet on either the Player, the Banker, or a Tie. Baccarat is unique in its execution; players don't compete against one another, or even against the dealer. Players must bet on a hand that scores the highest points total. The magic number is 8 or 9, deemed a natural in baccarat. Here is the kicker: it is impossible to bust in baccarat since every hand total greater than 9 automatically has the tens digit removed. 

    Therefore, the only thing that's required is a rudimentary understanding of odds and probabilities with Banker hands, Player hands, and Tie hands. Certain casinos are even prepared to reduce the 5% vigorish on the Banker hand to make it more player friendly. As a rule, when playing with an 8-deck shoe, the house edge on the Player hand is 1.24% and the house edge on the Banker hand is 1.06%. The true house edge, excluding ties, on the Player Hand is 1.36%, and on the Banker hand is 1.17%. Leading aggregator platforms like Uonlinecasino provide players with many entertaining baccarat options at reputable online casinos. It's always best to practice baccarat in demo mode before playing for real money. The game features additional side bets such as the Player pair and the Banker pair, both of which pay out 11:1 Tie bets pay 8:1, or 9:1, depending on the casino.

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    October 22, 2019

    By Louis Wheeler

    Louis Wheeler
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    With digital marketing strategies in his blood Louis Wheeler has traveled around the world, exploring gambling cultures and gaining experience in casino games from 2003. If you are in a casino anywhere around the planet, you may find him right next to you, playing blackjack, roulette or texas hold'em. 

    Louis Wheeler

    Joker’s Wild is a fun variation on video poker, one that has carved out its own niche of loyal players. Like all video poker games, Joker’s Wild comes in a variety of pay tables and payback percentages. 

    Unlike the rest, it comes with a basic divide: Some games start the pay table at two pairs, and others start it at a pair of Kings.

    And beyond that, there’s an intriguing variation. One version of Joker’s Wild Kings or Better puts the top payback on five of a kind instead of a royal flush. 

    Four of a kind plus a Joker to make the set five pays 4,000 coins for a five-coin bet. With expert video poker strategy, five of a kind appears an average of once per 10,994 hands, meaning players hit the top jackpot nearly four times as often as they draw a natural royal flush in most video poker games.

    Each Joker’s Wild game requires its own strategy to get the most out of the game. Let’s take a look at pay tables for three variations.

    JOKER’S WILD KINGS OR BETTER

    Winning hand Payoff per 5 coins wagered
    Natural royal flush 4700
    5 of a kind 1000
    Royal with joker 500
    Straight flush 250
    Four of a kind 90
    Full house 35
    Flush 25
    Straight 15
    Three of a kind 10
    Two pairs 5
    Pair of kings or Aces 5

    With expert play, this version returns an average of 99.29 percent. There are higher paying versions that return in excess of 100 percent – one raises the five of a kind return to 3,000 coins and another raises four of a kind to 100.

    But the 100-percenters have mostly disappeared from offline and online casinos. Even this 99.29-percenter is not common, but it’s available in some casinos, while others reduce payoffs on anything but the bottom four hands.

     
    JOKER’S WILD TWO PAIR 

    Winning hand Payoff per 5 coins wagered
    Natural royal flush 5000
    5 of a kind 500
    Royal with joker 250
    Straight flush 250
    Four of a kind 100
    Full house 40
    Flush 35
    Straight 25
    Three of a kind 10
    Two pairs 5

    With expert play, this one returns 99.08 percent, in the same ballpark as the Kings or Better version above. As with other games, there are higher and lower pay tables. Be pleasantly surprised if you find a higher one, but beware the low-payers.

    You don’t get your money back on King or Ace pair and payoffs are lower on Joker royals and straight flushes. But you get a little extra on natural royals and there are higher returns on four of a kind, full houses, flushes and straights. 

    The overall effect is a more volatile game with a similar overall return to the Kings or Better version above.

    JOKER’S WILD, TWO PAIRS, FIVE OF A KIND JACKPOT

    Winning hand Payoff per 5 coins wagered
    5 of a kind 4000
    Natural royal flu 500
    Royal with joker 250
    Straight flush 250
    Four of a kind 80
    Full house 40
    Flush 25
    Straight 20
    Three of a kind 10
    Two pairs 5

    With expert play, the five of a kind jackpot game returns 97.19 percent. A 99.12-percent version with enhanced full house and flush pays seems to be out of circulation.

    Note that natural royals, joker royals and straight flushes all bring the same return. With the emphasis on five of a kind, the others essentially are all just straight flushes.

    For a time, this was the most popular video poker game in Atlantic City, but its popularity and availability have waned.

    JACKPOT FREQUENCY

    One of the main attractions of video poker is the royal flush jackpot, with 4,000 coins being the most common offering. On a 25-cent machine, that’s $1,000.

    On non-wild card games, royals come up an average of about once per 40,000-plus hands, depending on specific game and strategy. Cards are dealt randomly, so it’s your strategy that makes the difference in royal frequency.

    In the Joker’s Wild Kings or Better game detailed above, royals pay 4,700 credits, or $1,175 on a 25-cent machine. With expert video poker strategy, the average yield is one royal per 38,477 hands.

    The first of the Joker’s Wild Two Pair games above pays 5,000 on a natural royal, $1,250 on a 25-cent machine. The average yield is one royal per 49,270 hands.

    The Two Pair version that pays a 4,000-coin top jackpot on five of a kind gives a player betting five quarters $1,000 for those quints. Five of a kind comes up once per 10,994 hands – more than three times as often as royals on the Kings or Better game and more than four times as often as the Two Pair game with the jackpot on a royal.

    That makes the five of a kind game a prime jackpot hunter’s game, even though those looking for the best overall payback will invest their money elsewhere.

    STRATEGY DIFFERENCES

    There is very little you can do to make five of a kind come up more often. If you have four of a kind, you’re going to hold it. Because of the chance at five of a kind, you’d rather start a hand with three of a kind than a straight, while in the other games you’d rather start with a straight. That doesn’t affect your strategy, however, because no hand can include a straight and three of a kind at the same time.

    Instead, the strategy differences among these games are driven by the bottom of the pay table, where King and Ace pairs don’t always bring payoffs Other pay table chances make differences, too.

    Here are a few sample hands to illustrate the differences. For the sake of clarity and brevity, let’s refer to the Kings or Better game as JWKB, the Two Pair game with a top jackpot on natural royals as JW2 and the Two Pair game with the top jackpot on five of a kind as JW5K.

    **10 of clubs, 9 of clubs, 8 of clubs, 7 of clubs, Jack of hearts

    In the JWKB, where straights pay only 15 credits for a five-credit bet, and in JW5K, where straight flushes pay 500, the best video poker play is to hold the four consecutive clubs. But in JW2, with 250-credit pays on straight flushes and 25 on straights, it’s better to hold all five cards.

    Average returns per five coins bet are 20.8 on the clubs and 15 on the straight tin JWKB, 25 on the straight and 23.33 on the clubs in JW2, and 36.98 on the clubs vs. 20 on the straight in JW5K.

    **King of diamonds, King of spades, 9 of diamonds, 7 of diamonds, 5 of diamonds

    The Kings are a paying hand in JWKB, but it’s better to hold the four diamonds in JW2 and JW5K.

    Average returns are 6.92 credits on K-K and 5.42 on the diamonds in JWKB, 7.29 on the diamonds and 3.69 on K-K in JW2, and 5.21 on the diamond and 3.74 on K-K in JW5K.

    **King of diamonds, King of spades, Queen of clubs, Jack of hearts, 10 of spades

    This is a similar to the previous hand, only with four parts of a straight instead of four parts of a flush.

    Average returns are 6.92 on K-K and 3.02 on the four parts of a straight in JWKB, but 4.69 on four to the straight vs. 3.69 on K-K in JW2 and 3.75 on four to the straight vs. 3.74 on K-K in JW5K.

    **Ace of hearts, Queen of spades, 10 of diamonds, 7 of clubs, 6 of spades

    In JWKB, you’ll hold a lone Ace in hopes of pairing it up for a paying hand. The average return is 2.29 on the Ace alone, and the next best options are Ace-10 or Ace-Queen at 1.65 each.

    On the others, it’s better to hold a card closer to the middle of the deck for a long shot at a straight or straight flush. Even there, the reward potential is so small many players discard all five cards. In JW2, average returns are 1.29 if you hold the 10, 1.29 on the 7, 1.25 on the 6 and 1.22 on a complete redraw – all better than 1.18 on the Ace. Similarly in JW5K, numbers are 1.22 on 7, 1.21 on 6, 1.20 on a redraw and only 1.11 on an Ace.

    **Joker, King of hearts, Queen of hearts, Jack of hearts, 3 of hearts

    In JW2, the strongest play is to hold the flush at a flat 35-credit return instead of the 26.56 average on four parts of a Joker royal.

    The other two games have higher Joker royal paybacks and lower flush paybacks, so it’s better to hold four parts of  a Joker royal. Average returns are 36.04 on four to a Joker royal vs. 25 on a flush in JWKB and 40 on four to a Joker royal vs. 25 on a flush in JW5K.

    Joker, Ace of spades, 9 of hearts, 6 of diamonds, 4 of clubs

    The Joker plus the Ace for a winning two-Ace hand in JWKB, so the best play is to hold Joker-Ace with an average return of 8.47 credits vs. the 6.90 on holding the Joker by itself.

    On the other two, the best play is to hold Joker-9. There are no high pair plays, and Joker-9 maximizes chances for straights or straight flushes  Average returns on JW2 are 6.56 on Joker-9, with Joker-Ace well down the strategy table at 5.78. In JW5K, averages are 6.41 on Joker 9, with Joker-Ace farther back at 5.64.

    The main lesson is that if you’re playing Kings or Better versions of Joker’s Wild, you need to be aware of potential high-pair paybacks. In Two Pair versions, there are no high pair paybacks, so high cards that would be automatic holds in other games often are just discards.

     

    *Credit for the cover photo in this article belongs to Joel Ryan/Invision/AP Photo*

    October 16, 2019

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski

    I see the thrilling Martingale strategy being used a lot in casinos, though undoubtably many Roulette players use when betting online too. 

    If you’ve ever used the Martingale strategy, you’ll know it involves doubling down on your wagers, chasing the excitement of trying to secure a one-unit profit. For example, bet $10 and win, return is $20 thus the one unit is $10. Lose $10 and double down betting $20 and win, return is $40 thus you win one unit given that your total outlay was $30. Of course, many Roulette players continue to double down when losing. 

    The experience begins when Roulette players notice an opportunity to bet on an even money chance outcome that they hope will end a streak. 

    Of the three outside 1:1 options, Red/Black, Odd/Even, High/Low, most players tend to bet on the Red or Black options. I think it’s the visual attraction of seeing a streak of one colour that catches their attention as they get ready to implement a popular Roulette strategy, such as the Martingale.

    THE MARTINGALE STRATEGY IN ACTION

    Roulette players using the Martingale strategy lookout for a streak of at least six Reds or Blacks. However, a sense of urgency tends to begin when a run of ten consecutive same colour outcomes is seen. Players will then bet AGAINST that streak based on the theory, the longer the streak, the more likely the next outcome will be an opposite one that will end the streak. So, when they lose at their first attempt they continue to double down until they win or run out of money. 
    The more occasions you bet hoping for a streak to be broken using the Martingale strategy the more likely it is that you’ll encounter a streak long enough to wipe out your casino bankroll. If your first bet results in an outcome that ends a streak, then you’ll double your wager. If you lose and continue to double down trying up to six times, you’ll be entering the danger zone where the build-up of risk versus reward in my view just isn’t worth continuing.

    Example:
    1st bet 1 unit to win 1 (total outlay 1 unit)
    2nd bet 2 units to win 1 (total outlay 3 units)
    3rd bet 4 units to win 1 (total outlay 7 units)
    4th bet 8 units to win 1 (total outlay 15 units)
    5th bet 16 units to win 1 (total outlay 31 units)
    6th bet 32 units to win 1 (total outlay 63 units)

    The problem with most Roulette players who get into the Martingale bubble is they don’t want to stop. The adrenaline kicks in and the prevalent question in the minds of players asks, what if the next outcome happens to be the one that ends the streak? They don’t want to lose out on recovering their increasing outlay and the prize; that small one-unit profit. It’s a mixed emotion of excitement, fear and a drive to stay in the game, betting until the end, whether all is lost or little gained. Though of course a win feels big given that the true reward isn’t the one unit but the recovery of their total outlay.

    Certainly, this isn’t my cup of tea of a Roulette system, but it got me wondering whether there’s a way of tweaking the Martingale so that the risk can be minimised and consequently the reward secured sooner? I believe I’ve developed a method that improves on the Martingale approach. I write approach because this really is the key to solving what I see as the Martingale problem. 

    Martingale strategy pros and cons

    MARTINGALE STRATEGY PROS AND CONS

    Long streaks can lead to Roulette player’s bankrolls being wiped out. Even if they add more funds to top up their dwindling bankrolls the Martingale strategy can prove to be totally brutal and is the casinos best friend. Most players will either run out of money or in rare cases want to place a wagers that surpass the casino’s maximum betting limit. 

    It’s not uncommon for casinos to recoded streaks of 20x plus of the same colour occurring in a row. In 1943 a casino in America recorded Red occurring 32 times in a row. I once saw 25x Reds occur in a row on live online Roulette and I recall there had been a dealer change during that streak.

    On the other hand, if you have deep pockets and can afford to take the chance to secure a one-unit win, over the long term you’re more likely to succeed given that most streaks don’t end up being long ones. However, there are two aspects to this assumption. 

    The first is that the shorter the streak (under six in a row) the more likely it is that the streak will end. And longer streaks (ten or more in a row) is a strong indication that the streak may prove to be a long one. 

    TIP #1

    It thus follows that you should avoid betting when you see a long streak. Therefore, since shorter streaks are unlikely to form into a long streak you’ll win at more attempts when betting to see streaks end. 

    TIP #2

    If you follow the advice in tip 1, it’s a good idea to have a stop loss just in case the streak does continue. If you make three attempts in a row, from say the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th stage of a streak and stop you’ll only be losing seven units. E.g. bet 1 lose, bet 2 lose, bet 4 lose: total wagered =7   
    It’s better to lose seven units than to -63 or more units should you continue to double down.

    For example:
    Let’s say you bet to see a streak end from a run of 3 in a row. You’d be trying three times starting from the 4th outcome. You place 1 unit (whatever amount that maybe for instance $10), as your first bet for the 4th outcome following the run of 3 wins and if the streak ends, you would’ve gained your one unit win thereby recovering your $10 plus winning $10. 

    If you lose you’d place a $20 bet prior to the 5th outcome. If you win you’ll be paid $40 whereby deducting the $30 that is your total outlay, you’d be winning $10. If you lose you would try one more time, this time wagering $40 and a win will pay $80 of which $70 was your total outlay thus you’d be winning $10. 

    But if you lose $70 and stop trying you’d only be 7 wins away from recovering your losses which is better than had you gone on trying and lost a lot more. 

    TABONE'S TWEAK OF THE MARTINGALE STRATEGY

    Earlier in this article I wrote that my method involves a different approach to the Martingale strategy. At whatever stage of a streak you begin to bet against it continuing you should be aware that the Martingale strategy in an of itself doesn’t suggest when or where you should bet. The assumption is that a Roulette player bets against a streak by doubling his or her wagers upon each loss. But when it doesn’t work out before you’ve run out of money or exceeded a casino’s maximum bet limit the key to winning remains in the decisions on what you bet on. 

    When a Roulette player sees a streak of Blacks, my tweak of the Martingale maintains the doubling down element, however if my first bet on Red results in a loss, I’m going to assume that the streak will continue therefore my next bet will be on Black. If my assumption is correct, I win upon my second attempt not to see the streak end but to, if you like hedge my bet just in case I’m wrong and it continues.

    In the worst-case scenario where my 2nd bet fails, and the result is Red I’ve only lost three units having doubled down on my first wager. I believe I’m in a stronger position than the Roulette player who continues to bet against the streak by solely backing the other option. 

    My approach has more power when a possible streak lingers at the point of not knowing the next outcome. For me 3-in-a-row is the point at which streaks will either continue or not. 

    Either BBBR or BBBB clearly the former pattern ending in a R outcome has gone in the direction that ends the possibility of a streak forming, whereas the latter pattern has clearly favoured the formation of a streak. 

    If the streak continues as such BBBB assuming I lose upon the 4th Black outcome when betting on Red then my next bet will therefore be Black, and I’d win if the streak of Blacks continues BBB (this 4th outcome I bet Red but the outcome was B indicating the likelihood that the streak might continue) (this 5th outcome I bet Black and won) B. 

    I’m only going to lose, if and only if, the forming streak ends upon the 5th outcome like so BBBBR. But I’d rather lose twice which involves a single unit and a doubling of my unit (total three units lost) than continuing to double my wagers hoping that a streak ends by only betting on the opposite colour of it.

    THE STRUCTURE OF BETS LEADING TO A WIN OR LOSS

    Using my tweak of the Martingale strategy sees a Roulette player betting only twice when trying to profit from a streak. This means you only stand to lose three units (1 and the double 2) therefore the risk it controlled.

    In using my teak of the Martingale strategy, the possible outcomes are: 

    1. A win upon your first opposite bet. 
      BBB / you bet R if the result is R an opposite you win. If lost move on to the next bet.
    2. A win upon your second same type bet. If you lose you stop betting.

      BBB B / assuming you lost your first bet going opposite you now bet ‘same’ as the streak, so B. If you win there will be 5x BBB BB

      If you lose both attempts, you’re only losing 3 units and if you win upon your first or second attempts, you’ll be gaining 1 unit. Thus, it’s a 1:1 bet on the first attempt and risking 3 in total (first bet 1 and second bet 2) to win 1 unit upon your second attempt. Bet 2, win 4, less your 3 outlay = 1 winning unit.

    You have two chances to win versus both failing ending in a loss. 

    To break even you’d need to win three times for every -3 lost but let’s not forget you have two chances to achieve a win with your first bet being opposite should the streak end and your second bet being the same type as the streak, should the streak continue.   

    The next time you consider using the Martingale strategy, betting against a streak of the same colour shouting “Any Red number!” / “Any Black number!” in the hope of recovering your previous wagers, let alone the small profit you hope to gain, remind yourself of my approach to the Martingale strategy.   

    September 23, 2019

    By Stephen R. Tabone

    Stephen R. Tabone
    Body

    Stephen R. Tabone is an English Writer from Great Britain. He is a casino games professional pattern player and outcomes systemiser. He is the Author of Bestselling Baccarat books, ‘The Ultimate Silver Bullet Proof Baccarat Winning Strategy 2.1’ and ‘The Ultimate Golden Secret Baccarat Winning Strategy 3.0’.

    In 2011, Mr. Tabone earned a Bachelor of Arts degree with Honours in Creative Writing and Philosophy from the University of Greenwich, London. And holds qualifications in Law and in Business. 

    Mr. Tabone has been developing and testing his rule-based gaming systems since 1997 and began publishing these in 2017. As well as Baccarat, he plans to publish books on Roulette, Blackjack and other casino games. He has a fascination with number combinations, cryptanalysis, patterns and is a strong concrete and abstract thinker. He also designs stock market trading concepts.

    He is methodical in constructing powerful rule-based betting systems to combat the complex problems of finding ways to profit from randomness. Mr. Tabone’s systems help gamblers improve the way they play casino games. Back in the 90s he even bought his own Roulette Wheel to practice on.

    Stephen R. Tabone
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    OK, blackjack aficionados. Here’s your chance to find out how much you really know about the game of blackjack. Give yourself one point for every statement that you get right. Then subtract the number of wrong answers from the number of right answers for your final score.

    The object of blackjack is to get the point total of your hand as close as possible to 21. 

    False. The objective is to beat the dealer’s hand by either of two ways: Having your hand total higher than the dealer’s hand or not busting (i.e., going over 21) when the dealer busts. 

    You will win 50% of the hands when you play blackjack.

    False. On average, you will 43% of the hands, lose 48%, and tie 9%. If you discount ties, you will on average 47% of your hands and lose 53%.

    The casino has the edge in blackjack because players act on their hand first, and if they bust, they automatically lose.

    True. This “double bust” rule is what creates the casino’s inherent edge in the game. 

    Clueless players on your table will cause you to lose.

    False. How your fellow players decide to play their hands has no effect on your chances of winning or losing at blackjack in the long run. In fact, you could get the same long-term results playing on a table with six professional blackjack players as you would playing with six chimpanzees.

    There is a mathematically optimal playing strategy for blackjack.

    True. This strategy is known is the basic playing strategy and it shows you how best to play every hand dealt to you.

    The most important card in blackjack is the dealer’s upcard.

    True. That’s because the dealer’s upcard and the cards you hold in your hand determine how you should play your hand using the basic playing strategy.

    It’s possible to make a living playing live blackjack.

    True. In fact, many professional blackjack players, from all over the world, gather annually at a secret location in Las Vegas (this event is known as the “Blackjack Ball).

    A player who enters a game in the middle of a shoe will change the flow of the subsequent cards that will be dealt, causing you to lose. 

    False. Changing the order of the cards by creating another hand when a player jumps into a game in mid-shoe can help players as much as hurt them.

    You should always split a pair of 8s.

    True. Splitting a pair of 8s to play out two hands, each starting with an 8, is always the better play than hitting or standing on 16, regardless of what the dealer’s upcard happens to be.

    Card counting is illegal.

    False. Using your brains when you play blackjack is not illegal; therefore, card counting is not “illegal.”

    You will be dealt a blackjack hand about once in every 30 hands.

    False. It’s once in about every 21 hands. 

    Progressive betting systems don’t work.

    True. Progressive betting systems will not alter your long-term expectations; however, what they do in the short-term is increase the swings in your bankroll one way or the other compared to betting the same on every hand.

    A basic strategy player will bust about 12% of the time.

    False. A basic strategy player will bust about 16% on average. A clueless player who uses a seat-of-the-pants playing strategy will often bust more often.

    Bringing a strategy card with when you play blackjack is perfectly legal.

    True. There is nothing illegal about using a strategy card when you play. However, most casinos (for security reasons) prefer that you not place the card on the table. Therefore, you should hold the card in your hand.

    The dealer busts about 2 out of every 7 hands.

    True. On average the dealer will bust about 28% of the time (or about 2 out of every 7 hands).

    Always stand with soft 18.

    False. Most players mistakenly believe 18 is good enough to beat the dealer. Actually it’s not. When you are dealt a soft 18, the best strategy is to double down if the dealer shows a 3 through 6 upcard, hit if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or ace, and stand against a dealer’s 2, 7 and 8. (Note: Depending on the mix of playing rules and number of decks of cards, the above strategy may be slightly different; consult the strategy charts in the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide for details.)

    A single-deck game in which a blackjack pays 6-5 is one of the worst blackjack games.

    True. The house edge increases by 1.4% when a blackjack pays 6-5 instead of the traditional 3-2. Avoid playing all 6-5 blackjack games.

    The house edge decreases slightly when a casino uses a continuous shuffling machine (or CSM).

    True. With a CSM, the discards from each round are randomly shuffled with the remaining unplayed decks of cards. The reason that the house edge decreases slightly with a CSM is because on average more tens and aces are dealt compared to a normally shuffled shoe with a fixed shuffle point. More large-value cards favor the player, which slightly decreases the house edge. However, with a CSM, casinos can deal roughly 20% more hands per hour, which results in a higher expected theoretical loss for players. The latter more than compensates for the slightly lower house edge. Bottom line: Avoid playing on any table that uses a CSM.

    Because blackjack side-bets have high-payoff odds, they are a good bet.

    False. Most blackjack side bets (e.g., 21 + 3, Royal Match, Pair Square, and others) have high house edges (greater than 2%). An enticing high payoff on a side bet does not make it a good bet. Bottom line: Avoid making side bets. (Note: Some, however, can be beaten by card counting. See Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide for details.)

    You should always hit a hard 16 when the dealer’s upcard is a 10.

    False. If your 16 comprises three or more cards, you are slightly better off standing.

    Blackjack is the best casino game to play.

    True. By selecting a blackjack game that has a good mix of player-favorable rules and using the basic blackjack playing strategy, it’s possible to reduce the house edge to about half a percent (even less, rule dependent). By learning a simple card-counting system, you can eliminate the house edge completely and swing the odds in your favor.

    If you scored 17 or less, I would suggest you bone-up on your blackjack by reading my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide before risking any more money in a casino.

    September 19, 2019

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
    Body

    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

    Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    As casino axioms go, this one from roulette is a basic that everyone should know: The house edge at roulette is derived from the zeroes. Roulette odds are dependent on the zeroes.

    Those devising roulette strategy need to be aware of the effect of the zeroes. What brings this to mind is a recent movement in Las Vegas toward offering wheels with three zeroes.

    Most wheels in the United States have two zeroes. A few have one zero, a more common configuration in Europe than in the U.S. Those who search for an online casino can find either single- or double-zero wheels.

    Triple zero is something new, at least in licensed, commercial casinos. Wheels with 0, 00 and 000 have sometimes been spotted at charity casino nights, where the odds are tilted toward earning money for the sponsoring charity.

    But the Venetian in Las Vegas is no charity, and it added Sands Roulette in 2016. Others, including Excalibur, MGM Grand and Planet Hollywood, added triple-zero roulette in 2018 and 2019.

    Sands Roulette substitutes a Sands logo for the third zero, but it does the same thing to the odds as if the space was labeled “000.”

    Payoffs are the same as on single- or double-zero wheels: 35-1 on winning single-number bets; 17-1 on two-number splits; 11-1 on three number streets; 8-1 on four-number corners; 5-1 on six-number double streets; 2-1 on 12-number bets including columns and dozens; and even money on 18-number bets including red or black, odd or even and first 18 or last 18.

    All those would be true odds with no house edge if there were 36 numbers on the wheel.

    However, with the zeroes included, there are 37 numbers on a single-zero wheel, 38 with 0 and 00 or 39 on the new triple-zero games.

    Instead of the true odds being 35-1 on a single number bet, they’re 36-1 with one zero, 37-1 with two zeroes and 38-1 with three. Instead of true odds being 18-18 on red or black, they’re 19-18, 20-18 or 21-18, depending on the number of zeroes.

    Look at what that does to the house edge on a triple-zero wheel, starting with a single-number bet.

    Imagine you’ve picked a number and bet $1 on it for 39 spins in which each number turns up once.

    Your total risk is $39. On the one spin in which your number comes up, you win $35 and keep your $1. 

    That means at the end of the trial you have $36 and the house has $3 of your $39 in wagers.

    To calculate the house edge, divide that $3 by the $39, then multiply by 100 to convert to percent. 

    The first part of the calculation comes to 0.0769. Multiplying that by 100 tells you the house edge on single-number bets on a triple-zero wheel is 7.69 percent.

    We could go through the same exercise for single-zero and double-zero wheels, but to go straight to the answer, the house edge is 2.7 percent with one zero and 5.26 percent with 0 and 00.

    Let’s try again, this time with even-money payoff bets such as red or black.

    Imagine you bet $1 on black for 39 spins on a triple-zero wheel. Again, your total risk is $39.

    You win on any of the 18 black numbers, lose on any of the 18 red numbers, and lose on the 0, 00 and 000 with their green backgrounds.

    On each of the 18 wins, you collect $1 in winnings and get to keep your $1 bet. So at the end of the trial, you have $18 in winnings and $18 in bets retained for a total of $36.

    Since you have $36 of your original $39, the house has the other $3. As we’ve already seen, the house edge is the $3 won by the house divided by the $39 you put at risk. When multiplied by the conversion factor of 100, that tells us the house has a 7.69 percent edge.

    House edges on red/black bets are the same as on single-number bets on single- and double-zero wheels, too – 2.7 percent with one zero, or 5.26 with two.

    In fact, you can apply those house edges to nearly every bet on the wheels. Regardless of whether you’re betting corners, columns, streets or almost anything else, the house edge is 2.7 percent with one zero, 5.26 percent on a double-zero wheel and 7.69 percent with 0, 00 and 000.

    The exception is the five-number, or “basket,” bet on double-zero wheels. That’s  bet on 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3, and it has a house edge of 7.89 percent – even higher than the standard edge for all bets on a triple-zero wheel.

    Best strategy for a double-zero wheel starts with avoiding the basket bet.

    That’s not something you have to worry about on single- or triple-zero wheels. There is no five-number basket. If you want to bet the zeroes along with the 1-2-3 street, it’s a four-number bet on a single-zero roulette wheel with the same payoff and odds as a corner, and it’s a six-number bet on a triple-zero wheel with the same payoff and odds as a double street.

    Some games have special conditions that can reduce the house edge on the even-money payoff bets. A common Atlantic City variation comes when you bet red or black, odd or even, or first 18 or last 18 and the ball lands in one of the zeroes. In that case, you lose only half your bet.

    That reduces the house edge to 2.63 percent on the double-zero wheels common in A.C. If applied to other configurations, it would reduce the house edge on even-money bets to 1.35 percent with one zero or 3.85 percent on a triple-zero game.

    Even with that in mind, the house edge on a triple-zero wheel is much higher than with fewer zeroes.

    That leaves this basic strategy: If you want to play roulette and see a triple-zero game, your first move should be to look for a wheel with fewer zeroes.

    September 10, 2019

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
  • ">
  • Body

    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski
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    By using the basic playing strategy, a player can reduce the house edge to less than 1% (rules dependent). Most blackjack players understand the logic behind the majority of the basic strategy plays; for example, why you shouldn’t hit a 16 when the dealer’s upcard is a 6 or why you should split a pair of 8s when the dealer’s upcard is a 6. However, some of the basic strategy is not so apparent: like hitting a 12 against a dealer’s 3, or splitting a pair of 9s against dealer’s 9. Below are four non-intuitive hands, with the justification for the correct play.

    PLAYER’S 6-5 VS. A DEALER’S 10

    Basic strategy says to double down on 11 against a dealer 10. However, many players chicken out and hit instead because they are afraid that the dealer might have a pat 20. Well, did you know that when the dealer has a 10 upcard (and doesn’t have a blackjack), he will wind up with a 20 roughly 33% of the time?

    Meanwhile, a player holding an 11 and taking one card (i.e., doubling down), has roughly a 31% chance of getting a 21 (by drawing a 10) and an 8% chance of making a 20 (by drawing a nine). In other words, you are considerably more likely to make a 20 or 21 with a one-card draw than the dealer is to make a 20. Moreover, think about this: if you draw a 7, 8, 9, or 10, and the dealer has the same card in the hole, you still win! Even though doubling lowers slightly your chances of winning (because if you draw a small card, you can’t hit again to improve your total), your monetary gain is still greater by doubling because you bet twice as much money.

    Dealer's 10 upcard

    PLAYER’S 8-8 VS. DEALER’S 10

    If I told you that playing an 8 twice, against a dealer 10, loses less money than playing a 16 once, would you believe me? Probably not, but guess what, it’s true.

    When you hit 16 against a dealer 10, you’ll win only about 23% of the time and lose 77%, meaning you’ll win about four hands out of every 17. This is why holding a 16 against a 10 is the worst hand in blackjack. However, when your 16 is a pair of 8s, you have an out, namely splitting, because now your chances of winning when you start each hand with a single 8 against a 10 are 38%. In both cases (hitting and splitting), you are going to lose money, but it’s still cheaper to win 38 hands and lose 62 on each 8 (by splitting) than to win 23 hands and lose 77 once (by hitting). Still not convinced? Here’s the simple math to prove this point.

    Hit: Bet $10 on the hand. Win 23 hands for a total win of $230. Lose 77 hands for a total loss of $770. After 100 hands (ties excluded), your net loss is $770 minus $230, or $540.

    Split: Splitting 100 hands of 8s creates 200 hands, with each hand starting with an 8. If you bet $10 on each split 8, you’ll win 76 hands (38% of 200), for a total win of $760. You’ll lose 124 hands for a total loss of $1,240. Your net loss is $480. Therefore, losing $480 (by splitting) is, I’m sure you’ll agree, better than losing $540 by hitting.

    PLAYER’S 9-9 VS. DEALER’S 9

    It seems logical to split a pair of 9s when the dealer is showing a small card. However, it may not make sense to you to split 9s against a dealer 9, so you may stand with your “strong” 18. However, a hard 18 will beat a dealer’s 9 only eight times out of 20, while you’ll win almost half the time with a 9 facing a dealer 9 (actually, you’ll win 9.5 out of 20 hands). The bottom line is that even though you think an 18 is a strong hand, it isn’t against a dealer 9. To get close to break-even on this hand, you need to be aggressive and split. (Note, also, that when resplitting and doubling after splitting are permitted, there is the extra attraction of being able to double your 11, as per our first example, should you draw a deuce to any of your 9s.)

    PLAYER’S 10-2 VS. DEALER’S 3

    There is a “rule” in blackjack that says you should never risk busting your hand when the dealer shows a weak up card. That may be true for most stiff hands but it’s not the case when you are holding a 12 against a 3. When you think about it, there are only four cards that could bust your 12 — a ten, jack, queen, or king. On the other hand, five cards will get you to 17–21 (a five, six, seven, eight, or nine). Therefore, more cards will get you into the safe 17–21 zone than will break you. The other factor that works in your favor is the dealer’s 3 up card, which is not as weak as, say, a 4, 5, or 6 up card (she will bust less with a 3 up card compared to the 4, 5, or 6). The bottom line is that you will lose slightly less (about 2%) by hitting 12 against a 3 than by standing.

    For more information on how to play every hand correctly when you play blackjack, consult Chapters 2 and 3 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.

    September 1, 2019

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
    Body

    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

    Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    For the most part, doubling down for less is not a smart play. Notice I said “for the most part.” There are exceptions, which I’ll explain shortly. But first, let me address the issue of doubling down for less in a traditional blackjack game.

    A long time ago when I was playing blackjack, a fellow table player (who had been steadily losing) went ahead and unexpectedly placed four green chips (total of $100) in his betting spot.  The dealer dealt the cards, and I noticed the player cracked a smile as he stared at the good hand he was dealt — a 7-4. But his smile quickly turned to a frown when he glanced at the dealer’s upcard – a picture card.  When the dealer got to the player, he picked up four more green chips from his chip-stack as if he were going to double down. But instead, he hesitated and intensely stared at that dealer’s picture card. He probably knew that the basic strategy play for an 11 against a dealer ten was to double down; however, I could tell he was getting a little queasy about putting out another $100 and possibly losing $200 if the dealer were to beat him. It seemed like forever until he finally made a decision, which rather surprised everyone. Instead of doubling down for another $100, or possibly just hitting his hand, he instead took a middle-of-the-road approach and shoved out one green chip ($25),  nervously announcing to the dealer, “I’m going to double for less.”  

    It turns out he pushed on his hand, and he quietly left the table with far fewer chips than he came with. Another player then made this comment to the dealer: “I didn’t know that you could double down for less.” The young dealer responded, “Yes, and that’s a pretty smart play when I’ve got a strong upcard.”

    Let me say this as politically correctly as I can. Doubling for less is not a smart play, and any dealer who offers this advice to players needs to read a good book on blackjack. 

    Let me pause for a second to ask you this question: Which of these betting propositions would you take?

    1. Winning $100 56% of the time
    2. Winning $200 54% of the time

    While you ponder the answer to this question, let’s get back to this player who decided not to double for the full amount, but instead, creatively doubled for less. If you remember, he bet $100 on his 11 against a dealer’s 10 and then “doubled” for $25.  Let me show you what that play cost him, compared to doubling down for the full amount, or just hitting his hand.

    OPTION #1. HIT

    If you hit an 11 (potentially more than once) when the dealer shows a ten, you will win 56 percent of the time on average. This means that, for every hundred times you get this hand, with pushes excluded, you can expect to win 56 hands and lose 44 hands.

    He wins $100 56 times for a total win of $5,600.
    He loses $100 44 times for a total loss of $4,400.

    His net expectation is the difference of his expected win minus his expected loss, which equals +$1,200. Not bad, and it’s obvious that hitting an 11 against a dealer’s 10 [aha!] is a profitable play. But, you can do even better when you double down.

    OPTION #2. DOUBLING FOR THE FULL AMOUNT

    Blackjack players have the option to double down on any two first cards. (Although some offline and online casinos will restrict players from doubling on some initial hands, the vast majority of casinos allow DOA or double on anything.) When you double down, the casinos will allow you to make a secondary bet up to the amount of your initial wager (meaning you can double your initial bet, which is why this rule is known as doubling down). 

    In return for the casino’s allowing you to double your bet in beneficial situations, you are limited to only one draw card. Therefore, if you were to double down on 11 and drew a 3, you are stuck with a 14. Because you can’t draw more than one card when you double down, the percentage of the times that you win your hand is often less than for  hitting.  

    Take the case of an 11 against the  10. If you hit 11 against the 10, you win 56% of time, but if you double down you win only 54% of the time, or 2% less.

    You’re probably saying to yourself, “Wait a minute ... if I win fewer hands when I double down, how  can it be a better play than hitting?” Stay with me and I’ll explain.

    In order to analyze the benefits of doubling down, we have to factor in the amount bet. In the above example, he could have doubled for the full amount of $100, which equals a total of $200 wagered on the hand. Therefore, his expectation, if he would have doubled for $200, is as follows:

    Win $200 54 times = +$10,800
    Lose $200 46 times = –$9,200.]

    He would have had an expectation of winning $1,600 (over 100 hands). 

    If you compare the expected win of $1,600 by doubling down for the full amount with the $1,200 if you hit instead, you can clearly see the answer to the question I posed to you earlier in this article, namely:

    • You are better off winning $200 54% of the time, than winning $100 56% of the time.

    OPTION #3. DOUBLING FOR LESS

    Now let’s take a look at that doubling-for-less play, which the dealer praised.

    Instead of doubling for $100, he “doubled” for $25. His expectation is:

    Win $125 54 times = +$6,750
    Lose $125 46 times = –$5,750 
    Net expectation is +$1,000

    The following table summarizes the expectation for the three possible choices he had on the hand. 

    Play Total Bet Expectation
    Hitting $100 +$1,200
    Doubling for Full Amount $200 +$1,600
    Doubling for Less $125 +$1,000

    It turns out that his brilliant double-for-less play was the absolute worst of the possible three plays he could have made. He would be $200 better off hitting his 11 against the 10, or better yet, $600 better off if he doubled for the full amount. (I’m sure the casino bosses were thrilled when he decided to creatively double down for only $25!!) You’ve got the best of it when basic blackjack strategy says to double down, so always double for the full amount and never, never double for less.

    Note: Of course, he could have doubled for all different amounts up to $200, and many of them would have had a higher Expected Value (i.e., EV) than hitting.

    But wait, because there is more to this story. What if a player doesn’t have enough bankroll to make a full double down bet? Or how about a player that would have sleepless nights if he made the secondary $100 wager and lost $200 on the hand? My sage advice to these players is this: When you play live blackjack you need to have enough bankroll to support making occasionally large bets, including double downs and pair splits, and if you happen to be very risk averse, such that losing a big bet causes you emotional problems or sleepless nights, then you need to be betting at much lower stakes or to find a hobby other than blackjack.

    There is one time where doubling for less can be a brilliant play and that’s when it’s crunch time (i.e., last hand) in a blackjack tournament.  I learned this ploy from my good friend and tournament expert Kenneth Smith (author of the books How to Win More Blackjack Tournaments, vols. 1 and 2.). In a future article on blackjack tournament strategies, I’ll explain how and when doubling down for less can be a very powerful strategy in a tournament.

    August 13, 2019

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
    Body

    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

    Henry Tamburin Ph.D