What Is a Craps Hop Bet?

There are dozens of craps bets advertised right on the live casino table felt - wagers including pass and don't pass, come and don't come, place numbers, the field, hardways, one-roll propositions.

But in some ways craps is like an American fast-food restaurant with a secret menu, ways of combining standard ingredients that aren't listed on the big board but are known to customers and workers alike.


Hop bets are prime offering on craps' secret menu. There's not a space on the layout to illustrate them. You have to know they're available to make them.

WHAT IS A HOP BET?



When you want to be the next roll will bring two specific numbers on the dice, you want a hop bet.

For example, if you want to bet the next roll will be a 6 on one die and a 4 on the other, you ask the dealer for 6-4 on the hop, or 6-4 hopping.

There are two types of hop bets: Easy hops and hard hops.

An easy hop is when you're betting the dice will land on two different numbers. Combinations such as 4-3, 5-2, 6-3 or 3-2 alls would be easy hops.

If both numbers are the same, it's a hard hop. 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 3-3, 2-2 or 1-1 hopping are all hard hops.

The difference is that there are two ways to win at craps on any of the easy hops and only one way to win on a hard hop.

If you bet 6-4 hopping, you win if the first die is a 6 and the second a 4, and also if the second die is a 6 and the first die is a 4. 

If you bet 4-4 hopping, both dice have to land on 4. That's only one roll.

That you're twice as likely to win with an easy hop is reflected in the payoffs. Winners pay 30-1 on hard hops and 15-1 on easy hops.

HOPS TOTALS



If you want to bet total of the two dice as a one-roll bet, you can give the dealer the total and tell him it's on the hop. You then get all the combinations that yield that total.

For example, if you tell the dealer you want 10 hopping, you would win on 6-4, 4-6 and 5-5. If you want 9 hopping, you would win on 6-3, 3-6, 5-4 and 4-5.

That affects payoffs, since there are more possibilities. If you bet on 10 hopping, it's the equivalent of having half your bet on 6-4 hopping and half on 5-5.

Imagine you've wagered $2 on 10 hopping. That's the same as $1 on 6-4 and $1 on 5-5. So if the roll is 6-4, you're paid 15-1 on $1 and the house keeps the other $1. If the roll is 5-5, you're paid 30-1 on $1 and the house keeps the other $1.

So it goes on other hop totals. An 8 hopping is essentially is three bets, easy hops on 6-2 and 5-3 and the hard hop on 4-4. On any winner, you're paid for that portion while the house keeps the portion of the overall wager that corresponds to the other possibilities.

HOW AND WHEN TO MAKE HOP BETS



Unlike pass, don't pass, come, don't come and the field, you can't just put your chips down and make a hop bet. The dealer has to know what you're doing.

To make a hop bet, you place chips on the layout and tell the dealer what you want -- 5-3 hopping, or 4-2 on the hop. 

After the next roll, the dealer will pay you if you win or the house will keep your chips if you lose.

You can make hop bets before any roll, but it's rare to make them on the comeout roll.

Novices will notice there is a period for betting before the stickman pushes the dice to the shooter for the next roll. Once the shooter has the dice, you can't make any more bets. But until the dice are to the shooter, you can put your chips on the layout and ask the dealer for your hop.

ODDS AND PERCENTAGES

Hop bet odds and percentage

There are 36 possible rolls of two dice, with one way each to make 2 or 12, two ways each to make 3 or 11, three ways each to make 4 or 10, four ways each to make 5 or 9, five ways each to make 6 or 10 and six ways to make 7.

With easy hops, two of those rolls are winners. That leaves 34 ways to lose and two ways to win. Expressed as odds against winning, that's 34-2, or 17-1.

Looking at hard hops, there's only one potential winner and 35 losers for each hard hop wager. Odds against winning are 35-1.

Turning to the house edge, we have to consider not only the chances of winning, but the payoffs.

Easy hops pay 15-1, compared to those true odds of 17-1.

If you bet $1 each on 36 rolls in which each number came up once, you would win twice. On each win you would keep the $1 wager and collect $15 in winnings.

Add the two $15 wins and the two $1 bets you keep and at the end of the trial you have $32 of the $36 you wagered. The house keeps the rest.

Divide the $4 the house keeps by your $36 in wagers, and you get 0.1111. Multiply by 100 to convert to percent, and the house edge is 11.11 percent.

On hard hops, the payoff is 30-1. Per 36 rolls, you win once, keeping a $1 wager and claiming $30 in winnings for a total of $31. The house keeps $5.

Divide that $5 by $36, and you bet 0.1389. Multiply by 100, and the house edge on hard hops is 13.89 percent.

HOP BET PLAYING STRATEGY



Players seeking the lowest house edge in craps would avoid hops bets like the plague.

There are much better bets on the table. Pass and come have house edges of 1.41 perent while don't pass and don't come are at 1.36. All and be dropped to less than 1 percent with judicious use of free odds.

Place bets on 6 and 8 check in at 1.52 percent. All place bets, buy bets and bets where don't bettors lay the point numbers have lower edges than the 11.11 percent on easy hops and 13.89 percent on hard hops.

The hops are comparable to the center table one-roll propositions. The house edge on easy hops is lower than the 16.67 percent on any 7 and the same as on the one-roll any craps proposition, where you're betting the next roll will be 2, 3 or 12.

So what kind of bettor uses hops bets?

Mainly, hops are for players looking to make a big score on a single wager. Pass, come, don't pass and don't come pay even money. Winning place bets on 6 and 8 pay 7-6 odds.

The best bets, the ones that give you the best shot at long-term wins, do not yield big wins in one shot.

Hunch players and others hoping for a quick strike have hop bets among their favorites.

Alternatively, players who stick to the best bets overall sometimes will try to spice up their games during winning sessions by mixing in low probability, high yield bets such as hops. A pass and come player who is ahead might try for a quick bankroll boost with small hop bets.

However, hops are not part of any strategy designed for the best chance to grind out a profit for extended play.

SUMMARY

Hop bets are one-roll bets that the dice will land on the two numbers you call. They pay 15-1 if the two numbers you call are different or 30-1 if you bet both numbers will be the same.

House edges of 11.11 percent on easy hops and 13.89 percent on hard hops are too high for a steady stream of hops bets to be profitable. To much exposure to edges like that will grind down your bankroll.

If you find fun in chasing long shots with big rewards on infrequent wins, then the hops might be part of your game. But keep your bets low, put more of your money in bets with lower house edges, and understand that the players who cut the house edge to the bone skip the hops altogether.

January 10, 2018
John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

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    Should You Keep the High Card in Video Poker?

    Getting the most out of video poker requires learning to recognize the best possible draw on every hand.

    Your video poker strategy decisions make a real difference in your wins and losses. And one of the most important decisions you'll make involves something we can call "The High Card Conundrum."

    The conundrum is this: If you're dealt a hand that includes a Jack or higher, and also includes a lower pair, which do you hold? Do you keep the high card and hope to pair it up, or do you keep the low pair and hope for two pairs, three of a kind or something even better?

    The reason it's a conundrum is that you'll get many more winners if you hold the high card and discard the pair along with other cards, but the average winner will bring more money if you hold the pair and discard the rest.

    So, how do you play video poker? Do you go for more winners, or a higher average payback per winner?

    Before getting into the explanation and arithmetic behind it, let's go straight to the answer: The better play is to hold the pair.

    Let's use an hand that starts with Jack of hearts, 7 of spades, 7 of diamonds, 10 of clubs and 4 of spades as an example. Then let's evaluate it in two games: 9-6 Jacks or Better and 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker.

    Video poker machine with the following hand: Jack of hearts, 7 of spades, 7 of diamonds, 10 of clubs and 4 of spades

    The "9-6" in both games signifies a 9-for-1 payoff on full houses and a 6-for-1 payoff on flushes.

    The full pay tables look like this:

     

    9-6 DOUBLE BONUS POKER
      1-coin bet 2-coin bet 3-coin bet 4-coin bet 5-coin bet
    Royal flush 250 500 750 1000 4000
    Straight flush 50 100 150 200 250
    4 Aces with 2/3/4 400 800 1200 1600 2000
    4 Aces 160 320 480 640 800
    4 2s/3s/4s with Ace/2/3/4 160 320 480 640 800
    4 2s/3s/4s 80 160 240 320 400
    4 5s through Kings 50 100 150 200 250
    Full house 9 18 27 36 45
    Flush 6 12 18 24 30
    Straight 4 8 12 16 20
    3 of a kind 3 6 9 12 15
    2 pairs 1 2 3 4 5
    Pair Jacks or better 1 2 3 4 5

     

    9-6 JACKS OR BETTER
      1-coin bet 2-coin bet 3-coin bet 4-coin bet 5-coin bet
    Royal flush 250 500 750 1000 4000
    Straight flush 50 100 150 200 250
    4 of a kind 25 50 75 100 125
    Full house 9 18 27 36 45
    Flush 6 12 18 24 30
    Straight 4 8 12 16 20
    3 of a kind 3 6 9 12 15
    2 pairs 2 4 6 8 10
    Pairs of Jacks or better 1 2 3 4 5


    Most of the pay tables are identical. They differ in two important respects:

    Jacks or Better pays the same 25-for-1 on all four of a kind hands, while Double Double Bonus pays more on all quads, with payoffs differing depending on the card ranks. No four of a kind in JB pays more than 125 for a five-coin bet, while four Aces with a 2, 3 or 4 as the fifth card can bring 2,000 coins in DDB.

    On the other hand, Jacks or Better pays 2-for-1 on two pairs while DDB pays only 1-for-1. That's extremely important, because two pairs occur much more often than four of a kind.

    With that in mind, let's look at the possibilities with our example hand, Jack of hearts, 7 of spades, 7 of diamonds, 10 of clubs and 4 of spades.

    If we hold the Jack alone, there are 178,365 possible four-card draws. The majority, 111,318 of them, bring no payoff. 

    The next biggest share, 45,324, get us our money back — five coins on a five-coin maximum bet — with a pair of Jacks or better. There also are 9,033 possible two-pair draws, 4,177 three of a kinds, 668 straights, 492 flushes, 297 full houses, 53 four of a kinds, three straight flushes and one royal.

    In Double Double Bonus, those 53 four of a kinds could be broken down into 49 consisting of four 5s through Kings, three that are four 2s, 3s or 4s and one that is four Aces.

    To get an average return, we'd need to multiply the return per hand by the number of occurrences, add all the payoffs, and divide by the total number of draws.

    Assuming a five-coin bet in DDB we'd multiply the 45,324 draws that bring a high pair by five, multiply the 9,033 two pairs by five, multiply the 4,177 three of a kinds by 15, and so on.

    We'd go through the same process in Jacks or Better, but multiply the two pairs by 10 instead of five. And, of course, there would be different multipliers on the four of a kind hands.

    Let's cut straight to the average: If you hold just the Jack, you win on 33.67 percent of hands. Your average return is 2.42 coins per five wagered in 9-6 Jacks or Better and slightly less at 2.21 coins in 9-6 Double Double Bonus.

    What if you hold the pair of 7s instead?

    Then there are 16,125 possible three-card draws, with 11,559 bringing no payoff. All the winners are at least two pairs, with 2,592 two pairs, 1,854 three of a kinds, 165 full houses and 45 four of a kinds. All the quads will be four 7s.

    Again, straight to the averages: By holding the 7s, you win on just 28.31 percent of hands -- more than 8 percent fewer than if you hold the Jack by itself.

    However, your average payback increases to 4.12 coins per five wagered on Jacks or Better or 3.67 coins on Double Double Bonus.

    In summary, by holding the low pair, you win fewer hands, but you win more money. The High Card Conundrum is a decision you'll face frequently. Learning to hold the low pair rather than a high card is one of the key plays every video poker player must learn.

    January 7, 2018
    John Grochowski
  • ">
  • Body

    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    6 Strategy Tips on How to Play and Win at Jacks or Better

    The very popular Jacks or Better video poker game has been around for a long time. The reason is the high return and relatively low variance of the game. The original “full-pay” game returns 99.54 percent with proper play. That means the someone playing the proper playing strategy will lose, on average, only 46 cents for every $100 played through this game.

    The beauty of video poker is the player can determine the return and variance of any game. It is determined by the pay table which is displayed on the game screen for every video poker variant. The pay table for a full-pay – sometimes called “9/6” because a full house pays 9-for-1 and a flush pays 6-for-1 – is shown below.  

     

    Pay Table
    Jacks or Better 9/6 - 99.54 % Return, 19.5 Variance
    Hand 1 Credit 5 Credit
    Royal Flush 250 4000
    Straight Flush 50 250
    4 of a Kind 25 125
    Full House 9 45
    Flush 6 30
    Straight 4 20
    3 of a Kind 3 15
    2 Pair 2 10
    Jacks or Better 1 5


    Notice the 9 credits for a full house and 6 credits for a flush. Also notice that a royal flush pays 250-for-1 if fewer than five credits are played and 800-for-1 if five credits are played.

    The Jacks or Better video poker game is also popular because the playing strategy is relatively straightforward and therefore relatively easy to learn. 

    TIP #1: BE OBSERVANT – MAKE SURE YOU FIND A TRUE FULL-PAY JACKS OR BETTER GAME

    There are dozens of different video poker games currently available in today’s casinos (whether brick and mortar or online casino). Each of these games has several different pay tables. In order to have the best chance to win at Jacks or Better, you must pick the highest return game. First, make sure the game you are examining is, indeed, a Jacks or Better game. If the pay table has the same nine lines shown in the table above, it is a Jacks or Better game. 

    Make sure you check the entire pay table. You need only check the five credit column as you should always play five credits per hand because of the pay for the royal flush. Normally the only pays that change for Jacks or Better are for the full house and flush – normally, but not always. Casinos can (and do) change other pays, so make sure:

    • A royal flush pays 4000-for-5
    • A straight flush pays 250-for-5
    • A four-of-a-kind pays 125-for-5
    • A full house pays 45-for-5
    • A flush pays 30-for-5
    • A straight pays 20-for-5
    • A three-of-a-kind pays 15-for-5
    • Two pairs pays 10-for-5 – and – 
    • A pair of jacks or better pays 5-for-5

     

    video poker



    This is really important. A reduction of just one credit per credit played in the pays for a full house or flush reduces the return of the game by more than one percent. Put another way, the player will lose more than an additional dollar per $100 played through the machine for each reduction. If you want to win at video poker Jacks or Better, you must find the best game.

    TIP #2: PLAY IT SMART – MAKE SURE YOU KNOW THE PROPER PLAYING STRATEGY

    Each different pay table of each different video poker game has a different playing strategy. You are going to play a full-pay Jacks or Better game so make sure you know the full-pay (9/6) Jacks or Better playing strategy. The proper playing strategy can be found at the end of this article.

    Practice the strategy until you are comfortable with it. You can try it manually by dealing yourself five card hands from a shuffled single deck. Check the video poker strategy to determine the proper hold. Once you have made your choice, there is no need to play out the hand, just deal the next hand. Keep practicing until you are able to correctly play at least 95 percent of the hands correctly.


    Alternatively, (and preferably) you can purchase a video poker playing program or app and use that to practice. This is a good way to go because the program or app will notify you when you make a mistake. Print out the strategy so you can refer to it when you are unsure how to play a hand in the casino or online.

    Only by playing the correct strategy will you achieve the highest return over the long run.

    TIP #3: STAY SHARP – DON’T LOSE YOUR EDGE

    Finding the proper game and knowing the proper playing strategy is of no use if you lose your edge while playing. Here are some suggestions for helping you stay sharp.

    • Try to maintain the same schedule as when you are home. Not sleeping enough or radically changing your schedule will impact your level of play. Maintaining your normal schedule dramatically helps to keep you sharp.
    • Do not play too long. After hours of playing, your level of play will diminish. Doing anything too long reduces your focus. Take a break periodically. Leave the casino and walk around a bit to recharge your batteries. If you find yourself making mistakes, stop and take a break. Why give the casino any additional advantage by continuing play?
    • Watch your intake of alcohol. If you want to maximize your profits playing video poker you need to maintain your edge. Drinking alcohol diminishes your edge. Why do you think casinos offer free drinks to players? Wait until you are done playing for the day to have a drink or two.



    TIP #4: PLAY IT COOL – WATCH YOUR PLAYING SPEED

    While the exhilaration of video poker play and the hope of winning might make you speed up your play, make sure you are playing correctly. The effort to get more hands played (and therefore more chances at a royal flush) can cost you if you start making mistakes. Remember, the 99.54 percent return comes from making the best play on each and every hand.

    TIP #5: PLAY IT FRUGAL – TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EVERY OPPORTUNITY

    If you are not already a member of the casino’s player’s club, sign up for it. As a member, always use your card. Almost every club offers bonus points that can be used for additional play, food credits, or even cash. This bonus directly adds to the return of your video poker play. Each 0.1 percent bonus collected is really an increase of 0.1 percent to the overall return.

    Bonus points are not the only benefit of using a player’s card. As you accumulate play on the player’s card, you may qualify for elite-level status which can add bonus point multipliers, free meals, rooms, and other freebies. You may also receive special offers of free play, special point multipliers and other valuable extras.

    While many players erroneously believe that inserting a players card will reduce your return, the opposite is actually true. It adds to the overall return of your play without costing you a cent.

    TIP #6: PLAY IT PRUDENT – DO NOT OVERPLAY YOUR BANKROLL

    One rule of thumb is to have at least the amount of a royal flush as your bankroll for a two to three day casino trip. If you are playing a 25-cent machine, you need $1,000 (4,000 credits at 25-cents each). If you play dollar machines, you need $4,000. By having an adequate bankroll, you will not sweat the losses (and therefore lose focus). But, the video poker bankroll must be money you can afford to lose – not the mortgage payment or grocery money. If you cannot afford to lose your trip bankroll, don’t play. It is important points to make sure you won’t sweat the money and that you will be able to quit playing if you run out.

    SUMMARY

    You can be a winner playing Full-pay Jacks or Better – if you properly play it. And remember: 

    1. Be observant – make sure you are playing full-pay Jacks or Better.
    2. Play smart – know the correct playing strategy.
    3. Stay sharp – don’t lose your edge.
    4. Play it cool – watch your playing speed.
    5. Play it frugal – take advantage of every opportunity.
    6. Play it prudent – don’t overplay your bankroll.

    By following these rules, you should get more skilled at Jacks or Better video poker. You may not win every session, but in the long run, you might win.

    4 of a Kind or Better
    4 Cards of a Royal Flush
    3 of a Kind or Better
    4 Cards of an Open Straight Flush (Suited 2345-9TJQ)
    2 Pairs
    Any 4 Cards of a Straight Flush
    High Pair (JJ-AA)
    3 Cards of a Royal Flush except A-high-T w/2 Pens
    4 Cards of a Flush, 2 High Cards
    Any 3 Cards of a Royal Flush
    Any 4 Cards of a Flush
    KQJT (Straight)
    Low Pair (22-TT)
    QJT9, JT98 (Straights)
    Suited QJ9, JT9
    4 Cards of an Open Straight, 0 High Cards (2345-789T)
    Suited QJ8
    Any 3 Cards of an Open Straight Flush (Suited 345–89T)
    Suited KQ9, KJ9
    Suited QJ, 0 Pen
    Suited QT9, JT8, J98
    Suited QJ, 1 Pen; Suited KQ, KJ, 0 Pen; Suited QJ, 2 Pen
    AKQJ (Straight)
    Suited QJ, KQ, KJ, AK, AQ, AJ
    3 Cards of a Straight Flush, 1 High Card, 2 Gaps & 0 Pen
    Any 4 Cards of an Inside Straight, 3 High Cards
    Any 3 Cards of a Straight Flush exc. 0 Hi Cards & 2 gaps
    Suited JT, 0 Pen
    KQJ, QJ (Straights)
    Suited JT, 1 Flush Pen
    KQ, KJ, 1 or More Straight Pen
    Suited QT, 0 Flush Pen
    Any Suited JT
    AK, AQ, AJ (Straights)
    J, 0 Flush Pen 
    Suited KT, QT
    1 High Card (J-A)
    Any 3 Cards of a Straight Flush
    Draw 5 New Cards
    Save For: Royal, Straight Flush, Flush, Straight, Pairs/3/4/5
     
    January 3, 2018
    Jerry "Stickman" Stich
    Body

    Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

    Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

    An Introduction to the d'Alembert System

    The d’Alembert system, also called the montant et demontant system (a French phrase that translates to upwards and downwards), is named after the French mathematician Jean le Rond d’Alembert. The system is based on the mathematical theory of equilibrium devised by d’Alembert in the 18th century. The d’Alembert mathematical equilibrium theory states that over the long run each of the outcomes in of a near 50/50 game will come up an equal number of times. Here, I will evaluate how the system works as well as the overall effectiveness of the system as well as what additional tactics can be used to increase the efficacy of the system.

    WHAT IS THE D’ALEMBERT SYSTEM?

    The d’Alembart betting system works best when it is applied to bets that have a near 50/50 outcome. In roulette, these bets are the red-black, even odd, 1 through18 and 19 through 36 bets. These bets are termed outside bets because they can be found on the perimeter of the roulette felt. When playing Craps these are the Pass and Don’t Pass bets. The d’Alembert strategy can also be applied to Baccarat on the Player and Banker bets. The simplicity of the system makes it easily applicable to both the online gaming environment as well as the traditional land-based casinos.

    How to use the d'Alembert system

    The d’Alembert betting system has characteristics that are similar to the Martingale betting systems (and Anti-Martingale), in that the player scales their next bet based on the outcome of the previous bet. The d’Alembert strategy is popular among players who want to keep the number of their bets and by extension their losses to a minimum. It is also used among players who want to accumulate comps. The betting progression is very simple and goes as follows: After each loss, you add one unit to the next bet, and after each win, one unit is deducted from your next bet. Starting with an initial bet of 5 units a typical betting sequence would like the following:

    • Bet 5 and lose
    • Bet 6 and lose
    • Bet 7 and win
    • Bet 6 and lose
    • Bet 7 and win
    • Bet 6 and win
    • Bet 5 and lose
    • Bet 6 and win

    The Mathematical summation for the sequence would be: 0 – 5 – 6 + 7 – 6 + 7 + 6 – 5 + 6 = 4. The d’Alembert betting system is preferred over the Martingale system because while you do increase your bets after a loss, it is at a much smaller rate than the Martingale and Anti-Martingale betting systems. The financial swings are drastically smaller and the required bankroll is much less.

    Like all betting systems, the d’Alembert has advantages and disadvantages. Proponents of the system will accent the positives and those that oppose the system will highlight negatives. Below are the best arguments for and against the d’Alembert system as I see them.

     

    ADVANTAGES OF THE D’ALEMBERT SYSTEM

    No casino gaming strategy based on a game that has independent trials can be described as safe. This is because they all carry an element of risk. However, this is about as safe as one can get. Secondly, a relatively low bankroll is required for a player to start playing. Lastly, the player is not in danger of brushing up against live casino table limits, unless of course, the player goes on an absolutely horrendous losing streak.

    DISADVANTAGES OF THE D’ALEMBERT SYSTEM

    The potential winnings using the d’Alembert system are low. This is to be expected from a relatively low-risk system. The player is also relying on winning as many bets as they lose. This isn’t likely to happen over long-term of play. This is because even with a slight disadvantage the difference between wins and losses diverge as the number of events gets large. The final problem I see with the d’Alembert betting system is that the player can sometimes go on an extended losing streak where the bets increase drastically. Once this happens, you find yourself in a tremendous hole that can only be recovered by going on an equally long winning streak. This will happen but the time required is unpredictable and can take a long time to realize.

    THE REVERSE D’ALEMBERT SYSTEM

    Like most betting systems the d’Alembert has a reverse option. Like the name implies the player just does the opposite of the traditional system. Here the player increases their wager by one unit after a win and decreases their bet one after a loss.

    In the d’Alembert and reverse d’Alembert systems your results depend on the number of bets won on a given sequence. In the traditional d’Alembert system you will be ahead by the number of bets won and in the reverse, you will be minus by the number of bets won. The gap between bets won and loss gets larger and larger as the number events get bigger and bigger. Since games always have a built-in house edge in the games they offer them the gap between wins and losses get larger as the number of bets increase. Over time the losses experienced by the players get larger and larger.

    TIPS AND TACTICS FOR THE D’ALEMBERT BETTING SYSTEM 

    1. First, you have to come to a decision on the denomination you are going to be adding and subtracting on every win or loss. Once you’ve got the denomination quantity range determined, its vital to stay consistent with that figure.
    2. Then, place a bet on one in all your favorite 50 or 50 bet areas Black, Red, Odd, Even, Hi, Lo or Pass and Don’t Pass, depending on the casino game.
    3. If you win, take away the number you’ve got determined in step one from your bet, or add the number to your bet if you lost the bet.
    4. Repeat the method on step three for your entire session.

    SUMMARY

    If you still think the d’Alembert system really works then considered the following. Many people have tried it and have not been successful. Even though the system appears to be flawless and initially the betting sequence may always result in consistent gains, the math will always catch up and a long streak of losing will inevitably wipe out any gains made.

    The can believe that the system will swing back in their favor but the reality is quite opposite to that assertion. In the real world play, the d’Alembert system has severe problems that will cause you to lose money when you play long enough. Be aware of the problems mentioned here while implementing the D Alembert system. In most of the cases, these problems are often overlooked but as an example consider that the D Alembert roulette system formula is based on the 50/50 bet, however in the ordinary roulette the zero or double zero on game equipment makes the 50 or 50 bet areas like Red or Black, Hi or Lo and Odd or Even have solely 48.65 or 48.65 bet. Therefore, even the formula works cleanly, the casino still has a 2.7 percent edge over the players wagers over the long run. This applies to games like Craps and Baccarat where the win-loss rates are close to but not exactly a 50/50 rate.

    Another aspect to consider is if you play Roulette with the d'Alembert system, you have got to use the same interval bet on each loss or win. In some instances, a prolonged losing streak will cause the player to hit the table limit and when this happens the system cannot perform as designed because the bet can no longer be raised.

    In the end, The betting system relies on the gambler's fallacy — that the player is more likely to lose following a win, and more likely to win following a loss. 

    December 28, 2017
    Nicholas Colon
    Body

    Nicholas is a 17 year veteran of the casino gaming industry. He is former player manager with the infamous MIT Blackjack teams and is a regular attendee of the Blackjack Ball, a gathering of the world’s top professional gamblers.

    He is the Managing Director of the Alea Consulting Group, a leading gaming consultant company with a focus on gaming economics and, is a frequent contributor to world class business publications like Forbes and Entrepreneur magazines’ and over 15 gaming trade publications. He is also the founder of Casino Exploits a player centric casino gaming site.

    Nicholas has lectured at major US universities like Clemson University, Michigan State University and Duke University. His vast business and gaming  expertise, is supplemented by post graduate degrees in Medicine, Business Administration and Applied Physics.
     

    All in, Literally: the Craziest Bets Ever

    THE MYSTERIOUS BASEBALL BETTOR

    While the World Series of Major League Baseball unfolded this past fall, all eyes were not necessarily focused on the field. No, as reported by superstar handicapper RJ Bell, the most compelling thing associated with the championship games was going down in the casinos of Las Vegas

    Through an increasingly enthralling group of tweets, Bell unfurled a story that could only happen in Vegas. According to Bell, a man “younger than 30,” of “Eastern European” descent, was “spreading bets across town” – and the bets were huge. As Bell told it, the guy made an initial wager on a World Series game, won and kept letting it ride until he had accrued $8 million in winnings on the first five games.

    Prior to the opening pitch of the sixth game of the Series, Bell announced via Twitter, “CONFIRMED RUMOR. Unknown Vegas bettor 5-0 in W Series – letting it all ride each game. He bet it all #Dodgers tonight!!”


    Everyone who follows baseball knows that the Dodgers won Game 6. And everyone who follows Bell wondered whether or not the handicapper’s prediction that the wild gambler was poised to put down $14 million on Game 7 would come to pass. Rumor had it that Vegas casinos were all too familiar with the high-stakes player. It reached the point where bookies moved their lines when he approached a betting window.


    Speculation ricocheted around as to whether or not the guy was a rich kid or betting as a beard for a large gambling syndicate. Even Bell was not sure. Then, soon before the start of Game 7, came a conversation ending tweet on the matter: “Perfect World Series ‘Let It Ride’ bettor NOT expected to bet Game 7 … Walking away with his winnings!”

    In describing the bit of unbridled sports betting, Bell said, “I’ve never seen a story like this.”

    ASHLEY REVELL

    But, amazing as his circumstances are, the mysterious Let It Ride baseball bettor is not the only one who’s risked it all to end up with even more. In 2004, a gamble-loving Brit by the name of Ashley Revell literally went all in on red. As he told the UK’s Telegraph, “It all started in a pub.” In fact his life-changing bet grew from the kind of goofball roulette-related question we’ve all pondered over drinks: “Wouldn’t it be great if we went to Las Vegas and bet everything on one spin.”
     


    Most of us enjoy a moment of fantasy and dismiss the idea as patently ridiculous and far too reckless. Revell enjoyed the fantasy but failed to dismiss the idea. Then he put it into action. The 32-year-old from London sold everything he had – including a BMW, golf clubs, a Rolex, even his cricket sweater. He wired a bit more than 75,000-pounds from the UK to the Plaza Casino and Hotel in downtown Las Vegas.

    Trailed by a camera crew from Sky One TV, he flew to America, went to the casino’s live roulette table, pushed forward a rack jammed with yellow-colored $1,000 chips and put it all on red. As the wheel spun and the ball moved with it, Revell experienced “a complete feeling of freedom.”

    Then it dropped into the number 7 spot – Red! – and his sensation of freedom turned to total euphoria. A bottle of champagne was popped. People exploded with cheers and Revell doubled his money! Unlike the World  Series gambler, though, he did not make a follow-up bet. He was content with his 153,680-pounds. Soon after, back in England, Revell embarked on a motorcycle trip around Europe.

    While on the jaunt, he met his wife and soon after launched a head-hunting firm that finds employees for online gambling companies. As to how he mustered the guts to make such a wager, Revell told the Mirror, “I always had this feeling that I would win. I never once thought about losing.”

    WILLIAM LEE BERGSTROM

    It’s impossible to know what would have happened if Revell had dogged it, but he certainly would not have wanted to use William Lee Bergstrom as a role model. Over the course of four years, Bergstrom made two craps bets, one that yielded $777,000 and another that brought a profit of $538,000, The second one happened on March 24, 1984.

    Both times he showed up at the old Binion’s Horseshoe with a valise full of cash. The move earned him a nickname: The Suitcase Man. Then, eight months later, in November 1984, heartsick over the loss of his male lover, Bergstrom made a $1 million bet at the Horseshoe and, well, the third one was not the charm. He lost the million and committed suicide nearly three months later.

    Gone but not forgotten, Bergstrom left a suicide note stating that he wanted to be remembered as the “phantom gambler at the Horseshoe.”

    ARCHIE KARRAS

    Archie Karras didn’t kill himself, but the legendary gambler is dead to Las Vegas. From 1992 through 1994, Karas supposedly jammed $50 into more than $40 million. Fittingly, his stint of winning became known as “The Run.” Over the course of his lucky streak, Karas took down casinos, at least one pool shark and poker masters such as Chip Reese, Doyle Brunson and Stu Unger. Then the inevitable happened: Karas went on to lose $30 million of his winnings over the course of just three weeks in 1995. Much of the rest got dribbled away.

    But that was not the end of it for Karas. At the long gone Desert Inn (its location is where Wynn Las Vegas now stands), he parlayed $40,000 into $1 million and got his winnings up to $4 million before blowing it all the next day. Then, three or so years later, down on his luck and down to $200 at a gaming table, he ran the meager sum up to $980,000. Presumably, that, too, dissipated. But, lucky for Karas, he’s relatively nonplussed by it all. As he told an interviewer, “Money means nothing to me. I don’t value it.”

    Hopefully, he doesn’t value his reputation either. In 2013 Karas was spotted marking cards at a Barona Casino live blackjack table in San Diego, California. He received three-years probation for that transgression but it proved to be the last straw for the Nevada Gaming Commission. Before getting nailed at the Barona, Karas had already been busted four times for cheating in Nevada and the Commission used the Borona incident as a reason to place Karas in its infamous Black Book – formally known as Nevada’s List of Excluded Persons – and forbade him from entering any casino in the state.

    Alas, if the 67-year-old plans on engineering one last Run, it’ll probably have to happen in Atlantic City or thereabouts. 

    December 26, 2017
    Michael Kaplan
  • ">
  • Body

    Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He has written extensively on gambling for publications such as Wired, Playboy, Cigar Aficionado, New York Post and New York Times. He is the author of four books including Aces and Kings: Inside Stories and Million-Dollar Strategies from Poker’s Greatest Players.

    He’s been known to do a bit of gambling when the timing seems right.

    Video Poker Strategy: the Double Up Feature

    The double up feature has been around for decades. In fact, it was much more prevalent years ago than it is currently. The following true story could be the reason why.

    In April, 2009, John Kane was playing video poker in the Fremont Casino in downtown Las Vegas. A little background on Kane is in order. Kane was truly addicted to video poker. In 2006, he lost half a million dollars playing video poker at Boulder Station and earned enough Player Club points to pay for his own Game King which he set up in his home on the outskirts of Las Vegas. He had a measured temperament and was not prone to emotional outbursts. Rather his play was methodical.

    On this particular day, he was playing a row of four low limit Game King machines. He had been switching between the different games available on the machines and had accumulated a decent win. When he hit the Cash Out button to take his money to a different game, the screen locked up and the light above the machine lit indicating a jackpot worth more than $1,200. Kane knew it must have been a mistake and actually told the slot attendant so. The attendant thought he was joking and paid him anyway.


    Knowing there was a programming error, Kane vowed to determine how to exploit it. He called a friend, Andre Nestor who lived in suburban Pittsburg, to tell him about it. Nestor flew to Las Vegas the next day. Together they went to the Fremont to try to recreate Kane’s previous results. They were able to determine that the key to the glitch was that under the proper circumstances, the denomination could be switched retroactively making a $40 jackpot at the penny level into a $2,000 jackpot at the 50-cent level.

    It took them seven hours of playing side-by-side to come up with a repeatable sequence to profit from the glitch.

    Realizing they should spread their play around, they tried their technique elsewhere. They tried Game Kings at the Hilton, the Cannery, the Stratosphere, Terrible’s, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Luxor and five other casinos – all to no avail. They were not able to recreate their results at any of these other casinos.

    So, they returned to the Fremont. In order to increase profits, they started using the double up feature. Ultimately casino personnel noticed the winnings. The slot manager approached Kane after one of his wins and announced he was disabling the double up feature on all Game Kings as he figured this must have something to do with his winning streak at video poker.

    This didn’t bother Kane as he knew the bug, not the double up feature was the real secret of his success. To his surprise, the magic sequence no longer worked at the Fremont. That’s when he realized that the sequence worked with the double up feature turned on but it did not work with the feature turned off.

    Armed with this new information, all the Game Kings in the country were their personal banks – as long as they could get the slot attendants to enable the double up feature.

     

    video poker




    Fast forward. As with all such situations, Kane and Nestor were ultimately caught, the machine’s erroneous code was corrected, and once again, the casinos had the upper hand.

    If you are curious, here are the steps they used to “beat the house.”

    The “Double Up bug” in the software of Game King video poker machines sur-vived undetect¬ed for nearly seven years, in part because the steps to repro¬duce it were so complex. This is what they did.

    1. Locate a Game King video poker machine con¬figured for multi-denomination play.
    2. Flag down a slot attendant and ask them to enable the Double Up option.
    3. Insert money or a voucher and select the lowest denomination level offered by the machine — for example, $1 per credit on a $1, $2, $5, $10 machine.
    4. Choose your favorite game — and start playing.
    5. Keep playing at the minimum level until you win a big hand. An $800 royal flush is perfect.
    6. With your royal flush showing but not yet cashed out, hit the More Games button on the touchscreen and select a different game variation. Play it until you score a win.
    7. Insert more money or a voucher into the machine.
    8. Touch the More Games button again, and change to the maximum denomination — in this case, $10 per credit. Then return to your original $800 royal flush.
    9. Press the Cash Out button. “Jackpot! $8,000” will appear on the screen and the light on the top of the machine will illuminate.
    10. Wait for the slot attendant to show up with an IRS form W-2G. Once you've signed it, you'll get your money.

    Now that this bug has been resolved and the above 10 steps are worthless. So, let’s look at regular double up play.

    HOW DOUBLE UP WORKS

    The double up feature is only available after a winning hand. When made, there are different methods to play the double up feature. Some games will automatically ask if the player wants to double up. On other games a “Double Up” button will become highlighted and the player has to touch it to activate the feature.

    • Once the double up feature is selected, five cards are dealt – one card face up and four cards face down.
    • The object is to select a face down card that will beat the face up (or house) card.
    • If the player selects a card that beats the house card, he or she will double the original win.
    • If a card lower than the house card is selected, the player loses the entire win.
    • If the selected card is the same rank as the house card, most games treat it as a push. However, some games will treat this as a player loss.
    • It is important to ascertain whether ties are treated as pushes or losses as this greatly impacts results.

    Most games allow the player to double up any winning hand – including winning double ups – but some only allow the player to double up once per initial winning hand.

    Keep in mind the five cards that are dealt are chosen exactly the same way that regular video poker hands are chosen – by using the RNG (Random Number Generator). In other words, they are dealt as randomly as a machine can.

    So, is the double up feature a good thing or a bad thing? Let’s try to answer – to Double Up or not to Double Up – that is the question.

    Let’s look at the good first.

    • Assuming that ties are treated as a push, the return for double up is 100 percent. There is no casino edge. Unless you have been able to locate a (currently extremely rare) 100+ percent game, the return for double up play is greater than the return of the base game.
    • Just make sure the double up feature you are playing treats ties as a push. If not – if a tie is treated as a loss – you are facing 5.8 percent house edge. This is not playable. Avoid playing it.
    • The double up feature adds some excitement to the game. A 400 credit win can become 800 credits, or 1,600 credits, or 3,200 credits or more.



    Now for the bad.

    • Playing the double up feature dramatically raises the game’s variance. Sure, you can win money more quickly using it, but you will also lose more quickly since half of all your double up plays will cost you your original win.
    • The playing rhythm becomes interrupted when switching to double up play and back to regular play. This can have adverse effects on perfect play



    Okay, there are good and bad aspects of playing double up, so let’s summarize. Here are some things to consider when deciding to play the double up feature.

    • Is the return of the base game over 100 percent? If yes, do not play the double up feature.
    • If the return of the base game is relatively low (95-98 percent), you may be better off looking for a higher return than playing double up in order to compensate.
    • Does the double up feature treat ties as pushes or a losses? If ties are treated as losses, do not play the double up feature.
    • How risk averse are you? If you have trouble watching pevious wins evaporate, do not play the double up feature.
    • Do you have a substantial enough bankroll for the added variance of double up? If not, do not play the double up feature.
    • Does changing the rhythm and pace of the game that happens when you switch from regular VP play to double up play bother you? If yes, do not play the double up feature.
    • Does the added excitement of playing the double up feature make up for the increased variance oof double up? If so, and if you have an adequate bankroll, playing double up could be for you.

    As you can see, there are many reasons to avoid playing double up and precious few supporting play. In other words, proceed cautiously with double up play.

    Here are a couple of other things to consider if you decide to play double up: 

    • Should you play double up on every win or less than that?
    • Should you play double up more than once per win?
    • Remember, every time you play double up, you increase variance. The more you play it, the larger your bankroll should be

     

    video poker

     

    There are a lot of things to consider, but the bottom line is playing the double up feature is a very personal decision. There are no clear cut guidelines that say a player should play it. Ultimately, it is up to the player to decide what is important and if they have what it takes to ride through the rollercoaster ride of playing the double up feature.

    That’s it – everything you need to know about playing the double up feature on video poker. What is YOUR answer to the question – to double up or not to double up? Only you can say.

    You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com 

    December 17, 2017
    Jerry "Stickman" Stich
    Body

    Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

    Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

    Ultimate Guide to the Martingale Betting Strategy System

    The Martingale is a betting strategy that dates way back before Las Vegas and gambling was a twinkle in Benjamin “Bugsy” Siegel’s  eyes. In fact, its first documented use was well before the 18th century. It is rumored to have been started by the greedy casino owner John Martindale.

    As you may have guessed the name of the Martingale system is a variation on Mr. Martindale’s surname. It is worthwhile to note that Mr. Martingale did not use the system himself, but did strongly encourage its use among his casino patrons. He would often infer to his players that other players had consistently won large sums of money using the system and, because most successful gambling systems are contrary to basic reason, they would believe him.

    Here we will discuss the ups and downs of the system and, in what specific situations it can work and why. We also define and evaluate the Anti-Martingale variation of the system.

    HOW THE MARTINGALE BETTING SYSTEM WORKS?

    The Martingale system is one of the most popular betting strategies implemented by recreational players. This is because it has a straight forward and seemingly rational approach. Players believe in the easier the better philosophy and it is definitely that. The player does not have to memorize any complex equations or quickly and mentally calculate wager amounts. The system can be easily applied to online casinos as well as in the traditional land-based establishments.

    Roulette table layout

    Over the years there have several of variations on the Martingale system. All of these variations orbit around the central idea of increasing or decreasing a bet after a loss. In most cases, the system is applied to games of chance that have a near 50/50 win to loss outcomes, such as the Roulette black and red bets or the pass and don’t pass lines at the craps tables. An uncommon but definitely applicable game that the Martingale system can be applied to is Baccarat.

    The traditional Martingale system simply doubles the next bet after a loss is attained. When a win is achieved a new cycle begins. The strength of the system is that the player wins the highest bet of the cycle. Consider the following case:

    If a player were to start with a $1 bet and, loses that bet, their next bet would be $2 dollars, and if the player loses that bet, their next bet would be $4. If that bet is won the cycle starts over and the player starts there bet at $1 again. This approach ensures that the player will win the largest bet of each betting cycle.

    At first glance and to the mathematically ill trained, the Martingale system seems to be a winning approach to games with a coin flip outcome. The novice player sees this as a sure path to easy money. But like the perception of a parking space near the door at shopping mall on the busiest shopping day of the holiday season, the Martingale is too an illusion.

    The system opens up the player to an unlikely but very high-risk approach and for a very slight reward. The Martingale system plays on the statistical probabilities of chance and lures the player into a false sense of security where the approach shows that the player has very high chance of winning several small amounts and has a very low chance of losing a very large sum of money.

    Because the player is winning small amounts often, the player falls into the false perception that winning more often means winning more total dollars. This is not the case. And because most of the games that Martingale method applies to are subject to the mathematical law of   trials; where this states that each event is independent of the last, there is no way for the player to feel secure in their play without some additional hedging which I’ll discuss shortly but first lets go over why it fails.

    The ups and downs of the martingale betting system

    THE PROBLEMS WITH THE MARTINGALE SYSTEM

    There are many problems with the Martingale system. The first concern the player needs to understand is that the longer the player plays the more likely they are to experience a bankrupting losing streak. Statistical Mathematics dictates that there is approximately a 0.001% chance of losing a 50/50 bet more than nine consecutive times.

    This translates into 1 time in every 1,000 wager sequences. And because the player doubles their bet after every loss, the player loses more than1000 dollars for the 9 bet sequence. The total loss on a 1 dollar bet Martingale for a 9 bet sequence is $1059. This eliminates any gains the player would have achieved by the max bet of the cycle. In its simplest form, the betting strategy is exposing the player to exceptional losses on an average of 1 time in every 1,000 sequences.

    The second and, third concerns that the player has to consider, is the constraints of the betting limits that are imposed by the casino and, the limited bankroll of the player. The betting limits of any casino ensure that the Martingale system will not be beneficial to the player. Most live roulette tables have an outside bet table max of $1000; and, after 9 bets the table max is reached. The player is prohibited by the rules of roulette from increasing their next bet.

    Baccarat has some very large table limits and employing the Martingale method at these super high limits gets the player closer to an even game but ultimately a 15-20 loss streak will catch up with the player wiping out any gain achieved prior to the loss streak. But to even consider this approach an enormous bankroll has to be available for to the player.

    In general cases, if a table max was reached the player, would have the option to move to a table with higher limits. The problem with this approach is that it is entirely possible that the player could continue loosing several more times.

    And again after every loss the player has to double their bet. For the system to be plausible the player must possess an infinite bankroll, and the table limits must also be infinite. Both of these requirements are never the case and therefore the Martingale collapses under mathematical scrutiny.

    THE ANTI-MARTINGALE SYSTEM

    A popular variation of the Martingale system is the Anti-Martingale system. The premise here is to half the bet after every bet and double the bet after every win. This variation is betting on streaks but again over the long term, the player will see a steady decline of their bankroll.

    Like the traditional Martingale system the law of independent trials causes this to fail. The player will eventually hit a streak where losses will eliminate all wins.

    THE BEST MARTINGALE STRATEGY

    In some casino games, particularly on roulette, players tend to use the Martingale Strategy. The method behind the martingale is one of the most daring gambling situations you could be involved in.

    The thrill of losing it all or winning back your money (along with a small profit) has seized the emotions of casino goers for years. 

    Can the Martingale Strategy Be Used Effectively?

    So, what is the martingale strategy, and can it be used effectively? Before I answer these questions, I’m going to begin this section with a fictional — but nonetheless — a very human example of getting too carried away.

    In his short novel ‘The Gambler’ (first published in 1866), Russian writer Fyodor Dostoevsky introduces the wealthy, arrogant Grandmother character.  Hearing a lot about casino gambling, she went to the casino in the hotel she was staying to investigate the game of roulette.

    She plays roulette and wins twice betting green zero. She doubles up her money twice betting on red. However, when she later returns to the casino she gambles and loses all her winnings and a lot more of her own money.  

    Dostoevsky doesn’t describe the grandmother using the martingale strategy on roulette. But the character shows the types of emotions you need to avoid because of a losing streak. 

    But you may be wondering whether the grandmother might have stood a chance had she been using the martingale strategy.

    Casino chips

    What is the Martingale Strategy on Roulette Games?

    What is martingale strategy on roulette games? The core idea forming the Martingale strategy on roulette games is to double your stake on an even-money wager every time you lose, until you win. If you win, the amount of net profit will be equal to your original stake. 

    Most people use the Martingale strategy on even-money chances like red or black, low or high as well as evens or odds. A winning payout is 1:1.

    If you win and want to continue using the martingale strategy, you start all over again from your original starting stake.

    Roulette Strategy Martingale Double Downs Explained

    You double your starting stake in one or more even chance roulette games until you win the equivalent value of your starting stake. This means betting double the amount of your last stake.

    It’s common to lose several games in a row before winning — unless of course the Martingale sequence wipes out your bankroll or you exceed the table limit.

    The house edge on single zero roulette is 2.7% or 1.35% on single zero roulette using “le partage” rule. This rule means if you lose an even-money wager because of green zero, the dealer will only take half of your stake.  

    The following example shows the flow of a typical martingale strategy sequence:

    1. Bet £10 and win. The total return is £20 including £10 stake. (balance = +£10)
    2. In game 2, the starting stake is used again. £10. The player loses £10. (balance = £0 breakeven)
    3. Player makes his first double down wagering £20 to try and recover the £10 lost in game 2, and to win £10 which is equal to the starting stake. The bet loses. (balance = -£20)
    4. Player makes a second double down wagering £40 to try and recover the £30 lost in the two earlier games. The bet loses. (balance = -£60)  
    5. Player makes a third double down wagering £80 to try and recover the £70 lost in the three earlier games. The bet wins. (balance = +£10) This winning bet won £80 thus recovering the £70 and producing a net profit of £10.

    This looks great doesn’t it. As if there exists a perpetual money-making machine. You’d think people would be queuing for hours — if not days and nights waiting — to get into casinos to gamble. But the Martingale strategy isn’t the yellow brick road leading to a lifetime supply of—well, whatever your heart desires. 

    Pros & Cons of Using the Martingale Strategy on Even-Money Roulette Games

    Assuming you have a large enough bankroll, you stand a reasonably good chance of winning using the martingale strategy, so long as you don’t fall victim to a long losing streak. 

    If you experience a long losing streak when using the Martingale strategy on roulette, you’ll reach a stage where the required stake exceeds the table bet size. This means you won’t be able to recover most of your losses, let alone only winning a small amount of money.

    Example of a Martingale Strategy Exceeding Bet Size Limit on a Roulette Table

    For instance, when using the martingale strategy on the outside even-money roulette wagers, let’s say a player’s starting stake is £10 and the table limit is £10,000.

    In the following table, all martingale strategy bets lose

    Game 1: -£10 (total loss = £10)
    Game 2: -£20 (£30 loss)

    Game 3: -£40 (£70 loss)

    Game 4: £80 (£150 loss)

    Game 5: £160 (£310 loss)

    Game 6: £320 (£630 loss)
    Game 7: £640 (£1,270 loss)
    Game 8: £1,280 (£2,550 loss)
    Game 9: £2,560 (£5,110 loss)
    Game 10: £5,120 (£10,230 loss)
    Game 11: £10,240 (bet exceeds table limit)

    There are three points to bear in mind:

    • Point One: The Martingale strategy risk far outweighs the reward. Consider game 10; Even if he had won, the stake is £5,120 to win a net profit of just £10. And £5,110 had already been lost by the earlier nine games. 
    • Point Two: At game 11, the bet size exceeds the £10,000 table limit. Assuming the player wagers this limit and wins, he would have recovered most of his losses, less £230. So, having staked £10,000 at game 11, using the Martingale strategy, the entire sum for all games that has been staked totals £20,230.
    • Point Three: If the player stakes £10,000 on game number 11, and loses, but carries on staking £10,000, this scenario (and whatever hypothetical outcomes) is outside of the rules of the martingale strategy. 

    Can Skill Be Used With the Martingale Strategy on Roulette Games?

    There’s no skill involved when most players use the Martingale strategy on roulette games. At best, when betting on roulette games using the Martingale strategy, players can:

    • Apply bankroll stop loss rules to limit losses;
    • Limit the number of double downs;
    • Use a pattern selecting strategy to decide on what to bet.

    To find out how you can tweak the martingale strategy so that the application is more fun and less risky, please read 888casino's Martingale strategy article.

    Roulette Strategy Martingale Confusion 

    The problem with the Martingale strategy is the reality of logic. The strategy is a negative progression betting strategy. 

    The first stake on an outside, i.e., an even-money wager has, (because of the house edge) an almost 50:50 chance of winning. However, the second and later wagers take on the burden of the negative pressure in trying to win. 

    Because the reward is low compared to the potential catastrophic losses, and because long losing streaks are common, I wouldn’t recommend roulette strategy martingale when gambling real money.

    December 12, 2017
    Nicholas Colon
    Body

    Nicholas is a 17 year veteran of the casino gaming industry. He is former player manager with the infamous MIT Blackjack teams and is a regular attendee of the Blackjack Ball, a gathering of the world’s top professional gamblers.

    He is the Managing Director of the Alea Consulting Group, a leading gaming consultant company with a focus on gaming economics and, is a frequent contributor to world class business publications like Forbes and Entrepreneur magazines’ and over 15 gaming trade publications. He is also the founder of Casino Exploits a player centric casino gaming site.

    Nicholas has lectured at major US universities like Clemson University, Michigan State University and Duke University. His vast business and gaming  expertise, is supplemented by post graduate degrees in Medicine, Business Administration and Applied Physics.
     

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    One Million Dollars Says I Can Beat Donald Trump at His Own Game

    As President of the United States Donald Trump is expected to take on some tough adversaries, from the heads of other countries to special prosecutors in his own. But throughout Trump’s colorful and outrageous public life he has taken on plenty of challenges - in business, in his personal life, and even across the live tables at his casinos in Atlantic City. Sometimes he’d emerge the victor. Other times he’d lose. But occasionally, when Trump knew he didn’t stand a chance to win, he’d duck out. That’s exactly what he did when Las Vegas casino owner Bob Stupak came calling in 1989.

    Bob Stupak was a classic Las Vegas story. The son of a professional gambler who ran a dice game in Pittsburgh for fifty years, the younger Stupak had a hustler’s heart. He made a fortune in the burgeoning coupon book industry in 1970s, mostly on the strength of his personality and salesmanship, selling a deal to both businesses and customers that neither likely needed. He parlayed his success into a small parcel of land north of the Las Vegas Strip that he transformed into Vegas World, a bargain-priced second-rate hotel and casino. But Stupak used his gifts for self promotion and hustling to draw outsized-attention to the under-sized property. From offering his own rules on blackjack (both dealer cards face up) to making a million dollar Super Bowl bet with another casino owner, to running for mayor of Las Vegas, Stupak knew how to get publicity for his Little Casino That Could.

    As Vegas World grew throughout the 1980s, the gaming establishment began to take the upstart Stupak more seriously. When he built Vegas World in 1979 he had 100 rooms and grossed $15 million. By 1989 he had a thousand rooms and grossed $100 million a year. The slogan at Vegas World was “The Sky’s the Limit,” and Stupak put his money where his mouth was. His betting limits were $2,000, double the limit at the ritzy Caesar’s Palace on the Strip. And he was planning to literally reach into the sky with the construction of the 1,000-plus foot Stratosphere Tower.
    But no matter how much success Bob Stupak had, he couldn’t seem to emerge from the shadow of another casino mogul on the East Coast, Donald Trump. Trump, too, was gifted at generating publicity for himself - and most importantly building a cult of personality around himself as a genius businessman with no equal. In 1989 Trump made Forbes’ list of the world’s billionaires for the first time, and they estimated his worth at $1.5 billion. While we now know that much of his wealth at that time came from borrowing heavily to purchase money-losing properties, at the time he looked like someone who had amassed a billion dollar fortune in less than four years. And though the following year his net worth would be estimated by Forbes at possibly zero, in 1989 he was still thought of as the country’s avatar of success, and a media darling with bestselling books, a football league, a number of properties in New York and casinos in Atlantic City with his name across the side in capital letters.

    In February 1989 at a press conference at Trump Tower, Trump unveiled his latest business venture: a board game called “Trump: The Game.” The tagline for the game was “It’s not whether you win or lose, it’s whether you win!” The game would retail for $25 and Trump pledged his portion of the profits to go towards charities for AIDS research and cerebral palsy.

    "Trump: The Game" board game

    The game wasn’t designed by the casino mogul, but by game designer Jeffrey Breslow. Trump’s one requirement of the game was that he “didn't want a game based solely on chance. I wanted a game based on talent. And I wanted to teach people if they have business instincts. It's great if they can learn that from a game instead of having to go out and lose your shirt." Breslow and Milton Bradley did their best, creating a game that was similar to Monopoly, although much more complex, using a system of blind bidding for properties and relying less on the luck of the dice. As a consequence, the rulebook was more than 12 pages long.

    When Bob Stupak heard about the game, he had an idea. He drew up a letter to Trump. The letter began: “Dear Mr. Trump, I realize how great you are. You have reminded us many times through the media and through your book, which I greatly enjoyed. And now, among your many, many endeavors, I see that you have introduced your very own game, ‘Trump: The Game.’ I have heard you quoted on television to the effect, ‘This game will show if you have it, and if you don’t, just enjoy the wife and the kids.’

    Well Donald, now you’ve entered my arena…” 


    The letter went on to read in all capital letters: “ONE MILLION DOLLARS SAYS I CAN BEAT DONALD TRUMP AT ‘HIS OWN GAME.’”

    The letter Stupak wrote to Trump

    Stupak took the letter and sent it to the New York Times, offering to take out a full page ad to run the letter in full. The Times declined. He then went to the Wall Street Journal, who also turned him down. Finally he convinced the New York Post to run his letter as a full page ad. He also took out a page in the Atlantic City press as well, just for good measure.

    After Stupak’s challenge, many of his friends in Vegas said they didn’t think Trump would even respond. So Stupak, like a true gambler, offered them to bet. He got 2-1 against and took all comers, stacking up plenty of side action to go along with the publicity his challenge was generating. Those who bet against Stupak didn’t understand Donald Trump the way Bob Stupak did. Perhaps it was because the two men were kindred spirits - larger-than-life self-aggrandizing men who let the media and the public define them. Stupak would collect from his doubters when Trump issued a statement in response to media inquiries about the challenge, a response that doubled as a dig at Stupak. “Playing a man I don’t know and haven’t heard of for $1,000,000 is a no win situation,” Trump told reporters. “It’s always possible to lose, even for someone who’s used to winning.”
     

     


    Stupak’s response? “Well if he doesn’t know me and hasn’t heard of me, he must have been living in Russia.” And he had a point. It was unlikely Trump didn’t know about Bob Stupak. Like Trump, Stupak put his name across the top of his hotel in big lights. He made his business more about himself and his personality than anything else. When Stupak was asked if his challenge was an attempt to ride on Trump’s coattails he showed just how much the two men were cut from the same cloth when he said “I’m not looking to ride on Donald Trump. I’m giving him an opportunity to ride on my reputation,” a Trumpian answer if there ever was one.

    Not to be deterred, Stupak pressed on with his challenge. He produced his own board game called “Stupak: The Ultimate Game of Skill and Chance.” He offered Trump a new bet: Trump wouldn’t have to put up a penny, and Stupak would put up $250,000 and the winner of the game could decide which charity Stupak would give it to. Stupak chose Las Vegas disability services non profit Opportunity Village. “I read that things are a bit tight at your place,” Stupak wrote in reference to massive losses reported at Trump’s Atlantic City properties, “so I’ll put up all the money. Surely you can spare a few hours away from your lawyers for a friendly game when your favorite charity (or mine) will be the big winner.”

    "Stupak: The Ultimate Game of Skill and Chance" cover

    Again Trump rebuffed Stupak’s challenge, though this time it was a bit harder. The public clamored for Trump to accept. After all, he had nothing to lose and it would all go to charity. Opportunity Village sent a telegram to Trump asking him to please accept.

    One issue at play beneath the surface of this gambit by Bob Stupak was that Donald Trump had been making statements about moving into Las Vegas and developing property there. “Donald says he wants to come to Las Vegas,” Stupak said at the time. “If he does, then he should come out and get involved in the community. I hope he accepts the challenge this time, because it’s for a worthwhile cause.”

    Trump never responded, but Stupak had won plenty. He got his name in papers from coast to coast. He made himself look more outlandish and bold than his rival. He earned some respect from the Las Vegas community. And he had people talking about Vegas World and Bob Stupak once again.

    Trump: The Game, meanwhile, was a flop. Milton Bradley had hoped to sell two million units in the first year. It sold only 800,000. People were reluctant to purchase a game from a real-life billionaire and line his pockets. So Milton Bradley re-cut the commercial and added in a voiceover declaring that Trump’s proceeds from the game were going to charity. It didn’t help. The truth was that the game was overly-complicated and not very fun. Why would people want to play Trump: The Game when they could play Monopoly?

    Years later when talking about the challenge with his biographer, Las Vegas Review columnist John Smith, Stupak admitted that he never even read the rules of Trump: The Game. If he had, he’d have noticed that the game requires at least three players. It’s not even possible to play it heads-up. For all his carping about why he couldn’t accept Stupak’s challenge, Trump never even mentioned this important, disqualifying point. Perhaps Trump, too, didn’t even know how to play his own game.

    January 7, 2018
    David Hill
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    David Hill is a writer and author from New York. His work has focused on the world of gambling, from chess hustlers to poker pros and everything in between.

    He is the author of the forthcoming book "The Vapors: A Casino in Southern Gothic" from Farrar, Strauss & Giroux. 

    Why Would I Rather to Play at Live Casino?

     I think I speak for all of us when I say that I would rather enjoy family dinners in casinos than at the homes of relatives. Considering that I sometimes find myself joining in on those very sorts of meals in London, a long way from my base in the United States, I feel that it’s only fair for me to have a say in where we do the dining. But, as I’ve found, it’s tough to corral my loved ones and convince them that we should caravan to, say, Crockford’s, in order to break things up with sessions of craps, roulette and blackjack between courses. It simply never works.

    Recently, though, I’ve discovered that it’s easy enough to bring casinos to the homes of family members, which makes going all the way to England for familial gatherings all the  more agreeable. I live in New York and Elite Lounge Live Casino — the latest iteration of online gaming, with live dealers sliding out cards, spinning roulette wheels and tossing dice — is not yet authorized there. But that doesn’t stop me from toting along my laptop and playing in England, a long hop across the Atlantic Ocean, where online gaming is totally legal.

     


    Most importantly, while there, I am not risking my money with a fly-by-night operation. Elite Lounge Live Casino is put on by one of the world’s most highly regarded online casino giants, 888 Casino. The company has been in business since 1997, maintains a stellar reputation and its sharply designed logo adorns the shirts of countless World Series of Poker superstars. So I am sold on the legitimacy of it all. Plus what the dealers are doing is plain to see. That seriously boosts my confidence — and enjoyment.

    Elite Lounge live roulette

    Apparently, I am not the only one who feels this way — about the honesty and aesthetics of Elite Lounge Live Casino. “It looks like our members appreciate the investment and the attention to detail we put into this top-end environment,” Itai Pazner, 888’s COO. “As far as feedback from our customers, they have recognized that we have provided them with a unique environment that has shattered the barrier between land-based casinos and the online live casinos.”

    Blackjack stands firmly as my casino game of choice and, via Elite Lounge and Live Casino, it plays much like the versions in brick-and-mortar properties. Rather than putting me up against a random number generator, which always starts with fresh decks of virtual cards, Live Casino allows me to play against real dealers who deal actual cards out of a regulation shoe.

    As in traditional casinos, the tables at Live Action feature six-decks of cards that get reshuffled at various points. So when I get dealt, say, an Ace, 8 of spades (soft 19), I know that those cards are out of the game until the next shuffle. There is also a sense of elegance, similar to what can be found in the high-end gaming enclaves of casinos such as Venetian and Palazzo in Macau and Las Vegas. “We definitely took inspiration from this world in creating our Elite Lounge,” confirmed Pazner.

    Elite Lounge blackjack table at 888casino live casino

    Contributing to the reality of it all, there’s socializing at the table — chatting it up with other players via messaging —  and the rest of my family members can’t help but join in, busting out their devices and putting up their money. It’s the next best thing to being in a casino and a far cry from the online gambling of yore, where you played against invisible technology.

    The well-dressed dealers — men wear suits; women show up decked-out in finery that’s sexy enough to catch your eye but not so revealing that you lose focus on your cards — are hooked up with microphones and can actually talk to players at the tables. So they totally keep it real, as do the ambient casino sounds. You hear cards being shuffled, people chattering away, chips riffling. And you can play new, innovative games that include Speed Roulette and Dream Catcher (one more new-comer, Double-Ball Roulette, is in the offing). “888 Casino understands that it is important to provide tailored experiences that meet the various preferences and demands of [our] players,” Guy Cohen, VP B2C at 888.

    As far as I’m concerned, he’s right. Once logged in and set up with chips, I feel like I am playing at my local gambling joint. All I need is for somebody to bring me cocktails.

    However, it wasn’t until I did a bit of snooping around that I discovered why the online environment seems so authentic: it is actually a real casino in Malta. No wonder it all feels so true to life.

    Clearly, little has been spared in making Elite Lounge & Live Casino into the best possible experience for the players. In some regards, it is actually better than being in the kind of casino to which you travel. The visuals here are all high-definition and the the roulette games alone are outfitted with 15 or so cameras. The beauty part there is that they allow you to watch the game from various angles and even to slow down the movement of the ball so that you can view it in slow motion.

    Blackjack dealer at the elite lounge blackjack table

    To my mind, that feature accomplishes two things: For one, you can milk the moment by observing the ball making its turns in tiny increments. This is the roulette equivalent of slowly turning up a card at blackjack or poker — what gamblers call “sucking it” — so as to slowly reveals suit and value. Furthermore, making the circle in slow motion provides incontrovertible proof that the game is completely legitimate. There is nothing happening that is  too fast for the naked eye to see. Even the fanciest casinos on the Vegas Strip can’t do that for you.

    What you don’t see when you play Live Casino is how it all happens. For that, a trip behind the scenes and to the actual location is required. Dealers there are all trained not only to divvy out cards like the pros that they are but also to communicate clearly with players. It all goes down in a manner that seems completely in line with the way thing transpire in the physical casino of your choice.

    Because the Elite Lounge Live Casino experience comes to your location from an actual gaming floor in Malta, you play alongside gamblers who walked into the brick-and-mortar casino. It gets no realer than that. High tech, well lit, shot with the best camera gear out there, the experience is completely transporting. There is even a Grand VIP table where you can play for stakes as high as 10,000-pounds per hand. However, that game is a little rich for my blood, so it’s also nice to be able to play for as little as 50p.

    It all adds up to the perfect combination of real-world casino play, complete with action and interaction, and the online casino option, which feels as convenient as ordering in dinner from your local burger joint. Best of all, for me, until 888’s Elite Lounge Live Casino comes to New York, it’s one more reason to visit the relatives in England. Considering the real-life backdrops of Elite Lounge Live Casino, playing on the site brings a sense of exoticism to the proceedings. As Pazner put it, “The unique build of the environment allows us to transport our players to the top casino locations around the world.”

    And, clearly, I’d rather be there than in a relative’s dining room.

     

    January 7, 2018
    Michael Kaplan
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    Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He has written extensively on gambling for publications such as Wired, Playboy, Cigar Aficionado, New York Post and New York Times. He is the author of four books including Aces and Kings: Inside Stories and Million-Dollar Strategies from Poker’s Greatest Players.

    He’s been known to do a bit of gambling when the timing seems right.