The following ten strategy tips are for casual blackjack players who want to increase their odds of winning while having fun playing blackjack.

THE BEST 10 TIPS ON HOW TO WIN AT BLACKJACK:

  1. Play games with liberal playing rules
  2. Learn the basic playing strategy
  3. Use a strategy card
  4. Avoid making the insurance wager
  5. Ignore your fellow players
  6. Avoid progressive strategies
  7. Don’t believe you are due to win
  8. Don’t play on tables that use a continuous shuffler
  9. Get rated when you play
  10. Go easy on the booze

 

STRATEGY TIP #1. PLAY ONLY GAMES WITH LIBERAL PLAYING RULES

Scout the blackjack tables to find the most liberal playing rules. Play only on tables where a blackjack pays 3-2 (and avoid all games where the payoff is 6 to 5 blackjack, or worse, even money). Other liberal blackjack rules are the dealer stands on soft 17, players can double down on any two cards, and doubling after pair splitting is allowed. (If surrender is offered, better yet.) Fewer decks are better than more decks.

BOTTOM LINE

A single- or double-deck game has better odds for a player than a six- or eight-deck game (assuming the same rules).

STRATEGY TIP #2. LEARN THE BASIC PLAYING STRATEGY

Blackjack strategy is not a guessing game where sometimes you hit your 16 against a dealer ten upcard whereas other times you stand. Brilliant mathematicians have been studying the game of blackjack for over 60 years and what they have proven without a doubt is that there is an optimal way to play every hand dealt to you. This optimal blackjack strategy, known as the basic playing strategy, allows a player to minimize the house edge to less than 1% when a player uses the strategy to play every hand.

BOTTOM LINE

You should never play blackjack without knowing and using the proper basic playing strategy for the rules set that you are playing against.

STRATEGY TIP #3. USE A STRATEGY CARD

An obvious tip, yet how many land-based or live blackjack players do you see using a strategy card when they play blackjack? These plastic laminated cards are readily available, casino-legal, and you can refer to them to be sure you always make the correct decision on every hand dealt to you, to avoid costly playing mistakes.

Note: For security reasons, casinos don’t allow players to place strategy cards — or other “things” — on a blackjack table, so just hold the card in your hand, and if you are unsure as to how to play a particular hand, glance at your strategy card for the answer.

BOTTOM LINE

Strategy cards can reduce your mistakes while playing blackjack. 

STRATEGY TIP #4. AVOID MAKING THE INSURANCE WAGER

Don’t make the Insurance wager no matter how much money you wagered on your hand. Insurance is a sucker bet. You are betting that the dealer has a ten-value downcard to go with her Ace upcard (thus giving her a blackjack). A winning insurance bet pays 2-1 but the odds of winning are worse than 2-1.

BOTTOM LINE

In that particular situation, even if you have a blackjack, and the dealer offers you even money, decline it.
 

STRATEGY TIP #5. IGNORE YOUR FELLOW PLAYERS

The playing decisions of other players on your table have no effect in the long run on your odds of winning. Blackjack is not a team sport. Always use the basic playing strategy regardless of how the other players play their hand, how much you bet, and whether you lost or won the previous sessions.

BOTTOM LINE

You're not in charge of other players winnings, only yours. 

STRATEGY TIP #6. AVOID PROGRESSIVE STRATEGIES

Sizing your bet based on whether you won or lost the previous hand is a losing proposition. You should only bet more when there are more high-valued cards vs low-valued cards in the unplayed pack of cards. (This is what card counting systems monitor.)

BOTTOM LINE

There are several simple, entry-level, card-counting systems that I recommend for casual players. (See Chapter 10 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.)

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STRATEGY TIP #7. DON’T BELIEVE YOU ARE DUE TO WIN

Don’t increase your bets because you feel you are due to win at the game of blackjack. The cards don’t know and they don’t care whether you are in the midst of a losing (or winning) streak.

BOTTOM LINE

Regardless of what happened during your previous playing sessions, stay the course and follow the tips in this article.

STRATEGY TIP #8. DON’T PLAY ON TABLES THAT USE A CONTINUOUS SHUFFLER

Continuous shuffling machines (CSMs) are devices that shuffle the cards after each round, which results in more hands dealt per hour (good for the casino), and more exposure of your bankroll to the house edge (bad for the player), Play on tables that use a traditional mechanical shuffler (where the cards are shuffled after 50% to 75% of them have been played), or where the dealer manually shuffles the cards.

BOTTOM LINE

Additionally, play on crowded tables (this will reduce the number of hands you play per hour, which will decrease the exposure of your bankroll to the house edge).

STRATEGY TIP #9.  GET RATED WHEN YOU PLAY

Always give your player’s card to the blackjack dealer to get rated for your play. The extra perks (i.e., comps) you get will reduce your cost of playing. 

STRATEGY TIP #10. GO EASY ON THE BOOZE

Alcoholic drinks are “free” when you play in most casinos but too much booze will dull your senses and increase your chances of making a costly playing mistake. Stay focused on playing every hand perfectly. 

November 24, 2020

By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

Henry Tamburin
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Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
 

Henry Tamburin Ph.D
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One of the playing decisions available to land-based and online blackjack players in some (but not all) casinos is to surrender their hand. For the uninitiated, blackjack surrender works like this.

After comparing your initial two-card hand against the dealer’s upcard, if you think your chances of winning the hand are not very good, you can forfeit playing your hand and surrender (or give up) half of the amount of your wager. If you decide to surrender, the dealer will remove half of your bet and then scoop up your initial two cards and place them in the discard tray. 

Most players disdain the surrender option because they much prefer to try to “win their hands,” rather than wimp out and surrender them. But as you will see shortly, surrender can be a smart play if you know which hands to surrender. 

WHAT IS SURRENDER IN BLACKJACK?

Before I show you the surrender playing strategy, it’s important that you understand the math behind surrender. You know that when you surrender a hand you will lose 50% (or half) of your wager. Therefore, it makes sense to surrender only those hands when your expected loss from playing the hand to a conclusion is greater than 50% (i.e., when your chances of winning are less than one out of four hands).

The latter means that statistically if playing a hand has less than a 25% chance of winning (and consequently greater than 75% of losing), you will save money in the long run by surrendering the hand instead.

Here’s a real-world example. Suppose you are dealt a 10 and 6 and the dealer’s upcard is a ten. This is the worst blackjack hand that you can get when you are playing. You have three choices on how to play the hand: hit, stand, or surrender. The percentages of the time that you will win or lose for each playing option are (assumes a six-deck game):

BLACKJACK SURRENDER STRATEGY: INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Strategy Win Lose Loss per $100 Bet
Hit 23.4% 76.6% $53.20
Stand 22.8% 77.2% $54.40
Surrender 50% of bet 50% of bet $50

The above percentages mean if you stand on your 16, you can expect to lose the hand 77.2% of the time and win only 22.8%; therefore, you can expect to lose $54.40 for every $100 bet on the hand. Hitting improves your outcome slightly; your expected loss is $53.20 per $100 bet.

Think about this:  When you surrender your 10-6 against a dealer 10 upcard, you will lose exactly 50% of your bet, meaning for every $100 wagered, your expectation is to lose $50. Now let me ask you this: is it better to lose $50, $53.20, or $54.40? (I hope you said only $50, which is why surrender is your best option for this hand.)

For even more blackjack charts and numbers, click here.
 

BASIC PLAYING STRATEGY FOR SURRENDER

The blackjack basic playing strategy for surrender in a six-deck game with the dealer standing on soft 17 is:

  • Surrender hard 16 (but not 8-8) against a dealer 9, 10, or Ace upcard
  • Surrender hard 15 against a dealer 10 upcard

Two situations you need to surrender at blackjack

Note: The above strategy differs slightly depending on the number of decks of cards being used and the mix of playing rules. See Chapter 2.2 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide for tables that contain the complete surrender playing strategy for any number of decks and different playing rules.
 

MAKING SURRENDER WORTHWHILE

To make surrender worthwhile, average losses on a starting hand have to be high enough to justify surrendering half your bet.

It becomes a balancing act. You'll win sometimes with any starting hand, but with one such as hard 16 when the dealer has a 10 face up, you're between a rock and a hard place. Hit, and you'll bust more often than not. Stand, and the dealer makes a 17 or better to beat you on a majority of hands.

When to surrender in blackjack is much like basic hit or stand strategy in that you must consider your cards as well as the dealer's upcard. Strategy for surrender depends on the number of decks in play, whether the dealer hits soft 17 and the composition of the hand.

Let's take blackjack surrender strategy and break it down hand by hand. In the charts below, "R" stands for surrender, "s" for stand, "h" for hit, and "p" for splitting a pair. If a hand says "Rh," it means to surrender if the option is available and to hit if not. Rs means surrender is preferred, but stand if it's not offered.
 

BASIC STRATEGY FOR LATE SURRENDER in BLACKJACK: SIX DECKS, DEALER HITS SOFT 17

Player Hand Dealer has 9 Dealer has 10 Dealer has Ace
Hard 15 H Rh Rh
Hard 16 Rh Rh Rh
Hard 17 S S Rs
Pair of 8s P P Rp

You can see basic strategy calls for surrender with hard 15 against 10 or Ace, hard 16 against 9, 10 or Ace, hard 17 against Ace, and a pair of 8s against Ace. If there's no surrender, hit the 15 or 16, stand on the 17, and split the 8s.
Let's run some numbers.

HARD 15: Numbers differ slightly depending on whether your 15 consists of 10-5, 9-6, or 8-7. 

Anytime you surrender, your loss is 50 cents per $1 wagered. If you make the next best play and hit, average losses against a dealer 10 are 50.4 cents with 10-5 and 50.5 cents with 9-6. With 8-7 vs. 10, the average loss when hitting is only 50.01 cents, barely more than the guaranteed 50-cent loss for surrendering, but it still means your best average results come with surrender.

It's not as close a call when the dealer has Ace up. Average losses when hitting are 59.9 cents with 10-5, 59.6 with 9-6 or 59.5 with 8-7.

We don't surrender with 9 because average losses of 47.2 cents with 10-5 or 9-6 and 46.8 cents with 8-7 are less than the guaranteed loss when surrendering.

HARD 16: With hard 15, we bust with a one-card draw of 7 through 10. With 16, we bust with 6 through 10. That extra bust card swings the percentages in favor of surrendering against a dealer 9.

There are two possible two-card hard 16s: 10-6 and 9-7. When the dealer has a 9 up, average losses per dollar wagered when hitting are 50.6 cents with either 10-6 or 9-7, so the better play is to surrender.

Average losses when the dealer has 10 up are 53.6 cents with 10-6 of 53.7 with 9-7. Against an Ace, averages are 54.1 cents with 10-6 or 54.0 with 9-7.

8-8: Splitting 8s is almost always the correct strategy, but there's an exception in multiple-deck games with surrender when the dealer hits soft 17.

When you have a pair of 8s and the dealer has an Ace up, splitting results in lower losses than hitting or standing. But the average loss of 51.7 cents per dollar of your original wager is more than the flat 50 cents you give up for surrendering.

When you have a pair of 8s and the dealer has an Ace up, splitting results in lower losses than hitting or standing. But the average loss of 51.7 cents per dollar of your original wager is more than the flat 50 cents you give up for surrendering.

 

BASIC STRATEGY FOR LATE SURRENDER: SIX DECKS, DEALER STANDS ON SOFT 17

Player hand Dealer has 9 Dealer has 10 Dealer has Ace
Hard 15 H Rh H
Hard 16 Rh Rh Rh

 

We surrender a lot less often if the dealer stands on soft 17. That's because even though the dealer risks  busting when hitting soft 17, the average final hand is better than the 17 that results from standing. A favorable draw results in more player wins when the dealer stands on soft 17, so we surrender less.

Some numbers: 

HARD 15: Against a dealer Ace, average losses per dollar wagered when hitting hard 15 are 48.3 cents with 10-5 or 9-6 and 47.6 cents with 8-7. All are less than the 50-cent loss for surrendering. So while you surrender 15 vs. Ace if the dealer hits soft 17, you just hit if the dealer stands.

Under these rules, surrender hard 15 only against dealer 10 values, where average losses are 50.4 cents with 10-5 or 50.5 with 9-6. However, if your 15 consists of 8-7, average losses when hitting dip to 49.98 cents per dollar, just on the side of hitting instead of surrendering. It's a close call, but a consideration for dedicated players who use composition-dependent strategies.

HARD 16: Surrender is the preferred play when the dealer has 9, 10, or Ace.  
Average losses when hitting vs. 9 are 50.5 cents vs. 10-6 or 9-7. Averages against 10s are 53.5 with either hard 16, and against Aces average losses are 51.6 cents with 10-6 or 51.4 with 9-7. All are higher than 50 cents, so we surrender.
 

BASIC STRATEGY FOR LATE SURRENDER: ONE DECK, DEALER HITS SOFT 17

Player hand Dealer has 10 Dealer has Ace
Hard 15 H Rh
Hard 16 Rh Rh
Hard 17 S Rs
7-7 Rs Rh

If you find a single-deck game that offers surrender, you've found a rare treat. But be careful. A one-deck game with surrender is likely to more than offset it with negative rules that might make a different table a better option.
Some numbers:

HARD 15: Surrender only against an Ace, where average losses per dollar wagered when hitting are 52.4 cents with 10-5 or 51.8 cents with 9-6. But hit instead of surrendering with 8-7, where the average drops to 48.3 cents.

HARD 16: Average losses when hitting against 10 are 50.7 cents with 10-6 or 51.2 with 9-7, while against a dealer Ace losses average 52.9 with 10-6 or 52.1 with 9-7. So we surrender.

HARD 17: Surrender only with 10-7 against an Ace, where losses when hitting average 50.4 cents. However, with 9-8 losses fall to 49.1 cents, so advanced players will hit instead.

7-7: The pair to watch in single-deck, hit soft 17 games is 7s. Surrender against 10, where the next best play is to stand with an average 51-cent loss.  Against Aces, the next best play is to hit with a 52.3-cent average loss.

 

BASIC STRATEGY FOR LATE SURRENDER: ONE DECK, DEALER STANDS SOFT 17

Player hand Dealer has 10 Dealer has Ace
Hard 16 Rh Rh
7-7 Rs Rh

As in multiple-deck games, we surrender less often if the dealer stands on soft 17 The numbers: HARD 16: Average losses when hitting against 10 are 50.7 cents with 10-6 or 51.2 with 9-7. 7-7: Average losses against a dealer 10 are 51 cents when standing, and that's a better play than hitting (51.5) or splitting (62). However, we don't surrender against Aces, where the next best play is hitting, with a 49.4-cent average loss.

A WORD ABOUT EARLY SURRENDER

Early surrender is extraordinarily rare. It was introduced long ago, before basic strategy was devised and before the math of blackjack was fully understood. 

You are unlikely to encounter this rule unless it's in a blackjack-based specialty game that has an overriding rule or two so favorable to the house it can afford to give something back.

There's no point in getting bogged down in the numbers, but for curiosity's sake, basic strategy for early surrender looks like this:

  • Against a dealer Ace, surrender with hard 5 through 7; hard 12 through 17; and pairs of 3s, 6s, 7s, or 8s
  • Against a dealer 10, surrender with hard 14-16, or pairs of 7s or 8s.

Don't be too concerned with early surrender strategy. Focus on late surrender, where strategy could be useful -- especially in online play.

MORE TIPS FOR SURRENDER

Here are some additional tips to keep in mind regarding the surrender option:

  • If you are not sure if a casino offers surrender, contact the casino beforehand (or just ask the dealer if you happen to be in a casino). Usually, if a casino offers surrender, it will state it on the placard that summarizes the rules at each table.
  • In US casinos, you can only surrender your hand after the dealer peeks at her hole card when she shows an ace or 10-valued card, to determine if she has a blackjack. If she has blackjack, the surrender option is no longer available, and you will lose your entire bet (unless you also have a blackjack). This is known as late surrender in blackjack and it is the strategy I presented in this article.
  • Another type of surrender, known as “early surrender,” is rarely offered in U.S. casinos and is more prevalent in European and Asian casinos where the dealer does not take a hole card until after all players have acted on their hand. With the early surrender option, a player can surrender his hand to a dealer’s ace and/or 10-value upcard before she checks to determine if she has blackjack. Early surrender is a much more favorable rule for players than late surrender, and it has a much different playing strategy than later surrender. (In this article, I only covered the playing strategy for late surrender. See Chapter 2.2 in the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide for the complete playing strategy for early surrender.)
  • In some casinos you must verbally announce to the dealer that you want to surrender your hand by saying, “surrender.” Other casinos have implemented a hand signal for surrender, which is to draw an imaginary line from left to right on the felt with your index finger.
  • Implementing the late surrender playing strategy will reduce the house edge by about 0.07% in multiple-deck games. Surrender also will stabilize your bankroll compared to a game where surrender is not offered and you have to play your hands to completion.
  • Surrender is also a valuable playing option for card counters because it will moderate the swings in their bankroll. Also, knowing when to surrender a hand based on the count should definitely be employed by a card counter. (For details on this, see Chapter 10.7 in Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide for the surrender “Fab Four” indices.)
  • Some (but not all) online casinos offer the surrender option in their blackjack games. Check the summary of the blackjack rules on the site to determine if surrender is available.
July 25, 2018

By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

Henry Tamburin
Body

Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
 

Henry Tamburin Ph.D
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High pairs, low pairs, any pairs are powerful - more powerful than many video poker players realize.

It's not merely that after a draw, pairs can turn into three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind to boost your credit meter.

High pairs - two Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces - are important in themselves, accounting for a major chunk of your overall payback in any game. They're the hands that keep you going, providing credits to recycle while you chase bigger pays.

Many video poker playing readers have asked how much value there is in high pairs, given that they just get your money back. Some question whether they're really winning hands at all.

Video Poker readers

Here's and example, in an email that arrived earlier this year:

"What's with the payoffs on pairs of Jacks or better? A five-credit win when I've bet five credits isn't really a win if you ask me. If I bet $5 at blackjack and win, I keep my $5 bet AND get $5 in winnings. On video poker, I just get the five credits back.

"Shouldn't they have to pay you something more than your bet to call it a win?"

That video poker question basically describes the difference between odds-to-1 and odds-for-1. If you're being paid odds-to-1, which is common in most table games, you keep your bet and get winnings on top of it. If you win a single-number bet in roulette, you're paid 35-to-1, so you if you wager $1 you get $35 in winnings and keep you $1 bet.

Most machine games pay odds-for-1.  The machine takes and keeps your bet, then makes its payoff on winners. If the roulette example above paid 35-for-1, you'd be paid $35, but the house would keep your $1 bet.

Video poker pays odds-for-1. If you bet $5 and draw a pair of Jacks, the machine keeps the $5 you wagered, then adds $5 back to your meter after the hand.

Such payoffs are basically the same as pushes in blackjack, where if your hand ties the dealer's, you get your money back.

In video poker, those pushes are an important part of the game. Let's illustrate the power of pairs, using 9-6 Jacks or Better as an example. Pairs of Jacks or better are by far the most frequent paying video poker hands, occurring on 4.66 percent of hands. They account for 21.46 of overall payback.

The situation is similar in 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker, where high pairs come up on 4.73 percent of hands and account for 21.13 percent of total payback. In fact, in any non-wild card game where pays start at Jacks or better, the high pairs account for 20 percent or more of our return.

What if the game paid 2-for-1 or as table games would pay it, even money -- on those high pairs? That would push the overall payback past 121 percent.

No casino could keep a 121-percent game on its floor so the pay table would have to be drastically altered.

 

Maybe paybacks could start with a pair of Kings instead of a pair of Jacks, but that would mean fewer paying hands and the game would become more volatile without. 

Maybe chunks could be taken out of returns higher on the pay table, but that would reduce the big rewards and our incentive for playing video poker.

You may or may not think of those 1-for-1 pays as "wins," but most of us wouldn't find video poker as playable without them. Each return of your bet on a 1-for-1 pay means credits for one extra hand to chase a bigger payoff.

In that way, high pairs are powerful even if you don't improve the hand on your draw. But if you get a pair on an initial deal, you do have a chance to improve the hand. 

Let's walk through what that means to your video poker strategy when dealt high pairs in 9-6 Jacks or Better and 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker.

You'd never want to break up a higher paying hand for the sake of starting with a high pair. If you get four of a kind, a full house or three of a kind on the initial deal, thank your lucky stars and hold those winners before drawing. 

In Jacks or Better, you can add two pairs to the list. The 2-for-1 payoff on two pairs makes it a more desirable start than discarding one pair to hold just a low pair.

Double Double Bonus Poker brings a different challenge. Two pairs pay 1-for-1 -- the same as high pairs. You must decide whether to hold both pairs, giving you a one-card draw for a possible full house -- or whether to hold just one pair and open up more possibilities.

The best play depends on the rank of the pairs.

Imagine you're dealt Aces of clubs and hearts, 8s of diamonds and spades, and a 3 of spades.

If you hold both pairs, there are 47 possible draws.  Four of them would complete full houses -- the other two Aces and the other two 8s. The other 43 draws would leave you with two pairs and that 1-for-1 return.

That leaves the average return for holding both pairs at 8.40 coins for a five-coin bet.

If you hold Ace-Ace and discard the other three cards instead, there are 16,215 possible draws. Of those, 11,520 leave you at a high pair and 2,629 bring a second pair, all with the same 1-for-1 return.

However, 1,852 improve the hand to three of a kind (15-coin return for a five-coin bet), 169 bring full houses (45 for 5), 34 bring four Aces (800 for 5) and 11 bring the big 2,000-coin jackpot for four Aces with a 2, 3 or 4 as the fifth card.

 The average return on all that is 9.58 coins per five wagered. That means breaking up two pairs to draw to a powerful pair of Aces is a better play than holding two pairs.

With lesser high pairs, the arithmetic is different. The payoff for four of a kind is 250 coins on four Jacks, Queens or Kings, rather than the 800 on four Aces, and there is no jackpot boost for having a low card as the fifth-card kicker.

If you change the above hand so the high pair is Kings, Queens or Jacks instead of Aces, the average return when holding both pairs remains 8.40 coins, but the average when holding just the high pair drops to 7.24.

That means Aces are more powerful than other pairs in Double Double Bonus, but all high pairs have the powers.

Low pairs are more important than many players realize, too. They're not winners on their own, but they are building blocks to big hands up to four of a kind.

You're better off holding a low pair than three or fewer unsuited high cards, two suited high cards, four parts of an outside straight with fewer than three high cards, or any inside straight draws. 

They're not as powerful as high pairs, but then high pairs are very important to your chances of winning at video poker. Regardless whether high pairs lead to bigger things on the draw or merely replenish your credit meter to keep you going in your quest for big payers, they have a power many players don't realize.

July 15, 2018

By John Grochowski

John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

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    The idea that past events can have an effect on future events is a common theme among some gamblers. If a roulette wheel has landed on black several times, then it has to hit red on the next spin or two, right?

    That’s what is known as the “Gambler’s Fallacy.” This is the idea that one event in the past affects another in the future. Also known as the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” the concept is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal over a certain period of time, then it will happen less frequently in the future.

    The same goes that if something happens less frequently than normal during a certain period of time, then it will happen more frequently in the future. The article expands on this idea of the Gambler’s Fallacy and offers insight on its consideration when gambling in a casino.

    Table of Contents

    The Gambler’s Fallacy – Applies to More Than Just Gambling

    While the Gambler's Fallacy can be applied to any activity or competition, it’s most often applied to gambling. In simple terms, the concept means something like “surely this outcome will stop at some point.”

    Sporting Events

    For example, this soccer team has beaten our club 12 straight times and surely we’ll get a win this time. Any sports fan knows this isn’t quite how things work.

    This feeling that nature will balance the scales eventually is a mistaken belief. Gamblers often think in these terms when at the blackjack or craps tables.

    In more mathematical terms, in situations with truly random events, one event doesn’t have an effect on any other events. An event is unaffected by past events as well and tends to follow this thinking:

    1. X occurs
    2. X departs from what’s expected on average or over the long term
    3. Therefore, X will come to an end soon

    A person is assuming that some result must be “due” simply because what has previously happened departs from what would be expected on average or over the long run.

    Coin Flips

    Here’s another example: one flip of a coin doesn’t affect the next toss of the same coin. Each toss obviously follows this pattern:

    • 50% chance of it landing on heads
    • 50% chance of it landing on tails

    Suppose someone flips a coin six times and gets heads each time. If he concludes that the next toss will be tails because that side of the coin “is due.” Of course, this line of thinking is the Gambler’s Fallacy.

    As noted above, previous tosses have no bearing on the outcome of the seventh coin flip. Simply put, all flips remain a 50/50 proposition no matter what’s happened previously.

    Reverse (Inverse) Gambler's Fallacy

    This concept seems simple once the Gambler’s Fallacy is understood. Simply put, this idea of the Inverse Gambling Fallacy is also false based on the belief that if something happened that it will continue occurring. For example:

    • Someone clips a coin five times.
    • Another person bets that the sixth flip will also be heads.
    • That person believes it will keep occurring because of past flips landing on heads.

    Each flip continues to be independent of every other flip. This feeling that the next flip will also be heads is based on flawed logic considering these flips remain random events.

    roulette

     
     

    Roots in Monte Carlo at the Roulette Wheel

    Monte Carlo is a global destination for gamblers. These elegant casinos offer a place to play for some of the world’s wealthiest gamblers.

    The Monte Carlo Casino offered one of the best-known examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy at work on August 18, 1913 – resulting in some big losses for quite a few roulette players.

    As the wheel continued spinning, the ball simply fell on black – over and over again. In fact, black came up 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence.

    Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black that night. Most reasoned incorrectly that the streak was causing an “imbalance” in the randomness of the wheel.

    “Red will surely come up on the next spin,” bettors had to be saying. That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy in a nutshell.

    Real-Life Examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy 

    Obviously, the belief that events become less random and more predictable is a fallacy. One event is completely independent of other events.

    Craps Table

    Craps can serve as another great example. On May 28, 1989, Stanley Fujitake grabbed the dice at a craps table at the California Casino downtown Las Vegas.

    A usual turn with the dice lasts only a few rolls before hitting a dreaded 7. But not that night at the Cal. Fujitake rolled 118 times, hitting fours, tens, sixes, eights, and every number imaginable except a 7.

    The casino paid out three-quarters of a millions dollars after more than three hours with the same dice. Common thinking may be that a seven would come at any moment because it was “due.” But each roll was independent of each other roll and Fujitake’s rolls just kept missing the 7.

    Lottery

    Another example are those dreamers who enjoy playing the lotto. Many players around the world have their own strategies. But studies have shown winning numbers often fall off in popularity after being drawn for a winner.

    Many may view that this number “has already won” and is less likely to come up again in a future drawing. This line of thinning, however, is the Gambler’s Fallacy at work.

    Just because that number was drawn last week doesn’t mean it won’t come up again this week. A past drawing is completely independent of another random drawing a week later.

    Sporting Event Coin Tosses

    Building on the earlier examples of coin tosses, sports teams often base their coin toss decisions on the Gambler's Fallacy. American football games determine the initial kickoff by a flip of the coin.

    One team may keep icking tails because it keeps winning for them, even inspiring the saying “tails never fails.” This is another example of the fallacy. Each toss is independent of each other and the toss remains a 50/50 proposition.

     

    The Gambler’s Fallacy in Pop Culture

    The concept of the Gambler’s Fallacy has been used in numerous works of literature, film, television, and other forms of pop culture through the years. Here’s a look at just a few.

    Literature

    In Edgar Allan Poe's “The Mystery of Marie Rogêt” explains the fallacy by noting:

    “Nothing, for example, is more difficult than to convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and which lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future.

    “The chance for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary time – that is to say, subject only to the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything like respectful attention.”

    Television

    Law and Order featured an entire episode called “The Gambler’s Fallacy” in 2014. The episode features Detective Amanda Rollins visiting underground gambling houses and coming up a loser.

    Comics

    Anyone who’s read the Peanuts comics or seen the cartoons knows Lucy always pulls the football away as Charlie Brown tries to kick the football. He inevitably takes a tumble when missing the ball.

    In one comic, Charlie Brown decides he’s going to pass on kicking the ball however. Lucy notes that the odds are one day she won’t jerk the ball away as he tries to kick.

    Lucy uses the Gambler’s Fallacy to continue Chuck to give it another try. What happened? He gives it a shot and of course, Lucy pulls the ball away. As he lay on the ground after yet another big fall, she tells him: “I’m sorry … this wasn’t the time!”

    Summary

    The Gambler’s Fallacy is the idea that when considering truly random events,  future events are determined by a past event. From rolling dice to spinning roulette wheels, random gaming occurrences aren’t affected by previous occurrences.

    The idea that something will change (or continue) based on previous results is the Gambler’s Fallacy. It’s important to remember.

    • All random events are independent of other events.
    • Basing decisions on previous dice rolls, roulette spins, or other random actions is flawed logic.
    • Many gamblers still fall prey to this concept.
    • Being aware of the Gambler’s Fallacy can help players be aware of real-world gaming events, odds, and actions.
    • The notion that a change in action is “due” is consistent with real-world randomness.
    October 24, 2017
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    On the morning of June 14, sports betting became officially legal in the state of New Jersey. It is only fitting, then, that the first person to place a bet that day was Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey. Proponents of legalized sports betting spent the last seven years fighting for New Jersey residents to gain the simple right to legally bet on games in their state. And now Murphy was about to do it. He wagered a mere $20 on Germany to win the World Cup and another 20 on, of course, the Jersey Devils hockey team to take next year’s Stanley Cup.

    He laid down his bet at Monmouth Park Racetrack, New Jersey’s first book to be operating.  But it will not be the last. It was soon followed by the launch of a makeshift sportsbook at Borgata, Atlantic City’s most famous casino and the one that comes closest to replicating a Las Vegas experience for its customers. Inside the Borgata’s facility that previously catered exclusively to horse bettors (a brand new Vegas-worthy sports book, budgeted at $7 million, should be open in time for the football season), former NBA star Julius “Dr. J” Erving placed the debut bet at Borgata. He gambled a measly $5 on reigning Super Bowl champs the Philadelphia Eagles winning it again in 2019. 

    The sums of money may have been small. But, in the big scheme of things, those bets were huge. They not only heralded the opening of sports betting in New Jersey but also signaled opportunities for the popular form of gambling to be legalized across all of America. As the revision of the law reads, each individual state can decide on whether or not it wants to have sports betting. Underscoring it all, as this story goes to press, Rhode Island became the third state, after New Jersey and Delaware, to greenlight betting on sports.

    By the time you read this, AC’s two newest casinos (the first to open there in years, both debuted in June), Ocean Resort and the Hard Rock, will be up and running with sportsbooks of their own. There is little doubt that just about every casino and race-track in New Jersey will soon offer odds and take action on sporting events. “We led the fight for sports betting and it’s now happening,” New Jersey State Senate President Steve Sweeney crowed in a statement. “We intend to see that New Jersey continues to be a leader with a sports gaming industry that thrives. Our efforts will pay off.”

    Sports fans rank among the big winners in all of this.  After all, if you love sports, few things are more enjoyable than spending a Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas with a skein of wagers, large or small, spread across the day’s roster of games. Surely aware of this, management at the casinos and race tracks of New Jersey will eventually provide top-flight experiences, complete with giant screen TVs, food, and drink at the ready, and efficiently managed betting windows. 

    The Vegas correlation promises to be most evident when sporting events are the largest. “During the NCAA tournament and Super Bowl week, you can’t get a room in Las Vegas and Atlantic City is a ghost town,” stated Ray Lesniak. “That changes with sports betting.”

    It is estimated that sports betting will generate $100- to $200-million for the New Jersey gambling industry. It also has the potential to be a boon for people who earn their livings betting on sports. “If the lines in New Jersey are different from those elsewhere, it can be a good thing,” says Bill “Krackman” Krackomberger, a professional gambler who grew up near Atlantic City but is currently based in Las Vegas. “I’m looking forward to spending the summer down there and placing lots of sports bets.”

    While the new law promises to provide Krackman with an easier life, there was nothing easy about enacting it. The progression to legalization began in 2012. That was when Lesniak officially raised the issue of allowing individual states to legalize sports wagering, within their borders, for the first time. 

    What made the legislation challenging is the fact that it was not simply a matter of New Jersey wanting to legalize sports betting, but it meant that the state would actually have to overturn a federal law. That law, known as PASPA (Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act), prohibited states from deciding on whether or not they can legalize sports wagering. 

    Lesniak and his crew brought their fight before US courts on nine occasions and were shot down every time except for the last one. "All along, no one gave me a chance," Lesniak has stated. "All these great legal minds [said,] 'Lesniak has no idea what he's talking about. There's no way this is going to happen.' That's why I feel just a little bit of self-satisfaction."

    The fact that Lesniak and company were going up against the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NCAA and the NBA – which all expressed fears that the spread of legalized betting could compromise the legitimate outcomes of their games – did not make things easier. Over the course of the battle, though, the NBA came around with commissioner Adam Silver acknowledging as much via a statement from the league’s attorney Dan Spillane. He told ESPN in 2016, “Our conclusion is that the time has come for an approach that gives sports fans a safe and legal way to wager on sporting events while protecting the integrity of the underlying competitions.”

    At least the NBA’s honchos got the point that for most Americans having a little action on the outcome of a game is half the appeal of actually watching said game. Indeed, according to a study done by the television research company Neilson Sports, sports bettors comprise 25 percent of the NFL’s television audience. But the gamblers watch games with more intensity than folks who have nothing riding on the outcomes. They accounted for 47 percent of all minutes viewed. 

    More people betting on the games that they watch should have a serious payoff for leagues, broadcasters, and advertiser. “Hands down, it’s a huge deal,” sports economist Brad Humphries told the New York Times. “How huge it depends on how quickly states move and how many states move to legalize sports betting.”

    Though the United States has a long history of being surprisingly prudish when it comes to gambling – until 1976, Nevada was the only state in America where casino gambling was legal – there are currently 40 states with some form of legal casino gambling. It is expected that most of them will want in on the sports-betting action. In this subject, recently SI Casino was launched in Michigan

    Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York, and Mississippi seem poised to be the next states to crank outlines and take action. All four have state laws that enable sports betting. It is estimated that 32 states will have legal sports betting within the next five years.

    As that happens, the sports leagues, which once vehemently opposed sports betting, will be lining up for their tastes of the action.  They are angling for a type of payout known as an “integrity fee.” The term was supposedly coined by the NBA and Adam Silver is behind it big time. He believes that his league – and presumably others – are entitled to a cut of sports-betting revenues because they will need to spend money on supervising players and making sure no cheating goes on. Additionally, he said, “We also think we are due [to] a royalty.” As his thinking goes, “To the extent that that [a sports league’s] product is used for casinos [and] betting parlors to make money on, we feel … we should receive some sort of royalty.”

    Wherever those payouts come to pass – Nevada has long refused to pony up the so-called “integrity fees” – money comes from the casino which, if history is any indication, will ultimately be derived from customers. Whatever the windup happens to be, though, right now gamblers themselves are not sweating the complication 

    That attitude is epitomized by an avid bettor who drove down to Atlantic City from neighboring New York. He wanted to be there for opening day of sports wagering at the Borgata. “I felt the fever!” he enthused to covers.com. Adding that he can hardly wait for his home-state to open the legal-gambling floodgates, the man said, “New York needs to get its act together.”

    The sentiment is becoming increasingly common among sports lovers who are eager to legally lay down their wagers in a country with the potential to revolutionize the sports betting industry.

     

     

    June 28, 2018
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    Blackjack is popular worldwide, and in the United States has ranked as the No. 1 casino table game for more than 50 years. It's also had the reputation as a low house edge game that gives players a great shot to win. That reputation has been eroding in recent years as casinos have adopted rules that increase the house edge. 

    Toughest of these is having blackjacks pay only 6 to 5 instead of 3 to 2. That raises the house edge against a blackjack basic strategy player by about 1.4 percent, and that's more than the entire edge on the rest of the game.

    In a six-deck game in which the dealer hits soft 17, blackjacks pay 3-2, you can split any pair except Aces up to three times, split Aces only once, and can double down on any first two cards including after splits, the house edge against a blackjack strategy player is 0.62 percent.

    Change just one rule and have blackjacks pay 6-5 instead, and the house edge soars to 1.97 percent.

    What the house permits double downs only on two-card totals of 10 or 11, as some casinos do? Then the house edge of 0.82 percent if blackjacks pay 3-2 rises to 2.18 percent with 6-5 blackjack pays.

    At that level, there are a number of casino games that give players at least as good a shot to win.

    Let's explore a few options among commonly available games.

    CRAPS

    Not every craps wager is as favorable as 6-5 blackjack, but the best bets are worth a long look.

    While playing craps, pass and come have house edges of 1.41 percent, and don't pass and don't come have edges of 1.36 percent. Right from the start, that gives you the chance of betting either with or against the craps shooter while getting a better deal than 6-5 blackjack gives you.

    Craps table

    If you're sufficiently bankrolled, you can take advantage of free odds and reduce the house edge to less than 1 percent. 

    After the shooter establishes a point number, pass or come bettors can back their bet with an additional wager that is paid at true odds. If that additional bet is equal to their original bet, the house edge on a pass¬-and-odds or come-and-odds combination drops to 0.8 percent. If the casino allows the odds wager to be multiple times the pass or come bet, the house edge drops more.

    The same goes for don't pass or don't come bettors. They can lay the odds, spotting the house the true odds of the shooter making his point. Laying the odds reduces the house edge on the don't pass-lay odds or don't come-lay odds combos to 0.7 percent or less, depending on the size of the lay odds wagers.

    A word of caution: free odds and lay odds have no house edge, but they do involve risking extra money. If you're a $5 blackjack player and move to a $5 craps table, you can bet on pass for $5. However, adding an odds bet means at least another $5 wager. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose, even if it means settling for a somewhat higher house edge.

    Place bets on 6 and 8 also give you a better deal than 6-5 blackjack, and there are no extra odds bets to consider.

    If you place 8, you're betting the shooter will roll an 8 before he rolls the next 7. Place bets on 6 work the same way -- you're rooting for the shooter to roll 6 before 7.

    If you win, you're paid at 7-6 odds, so you always want to bet in multiples of $6. The house edge of 1.52 percent is better than you'll find at 6-5 blackjack tables.

    There's an opposite to place bets called lay bets, where you're betting the shooter will roll a 7 before your designated number. The commission usually is the amount you would win if the shooter rolls a 7.

    There are casinos that charge the commission on all lay bets made, while others charge only on winning bets.

    It's worth checking out. If the commission is charged only on winners, then house edges are 1.67 percent if you lay 4 or 10, 2 percent on 5 or 9, or 2.27 percent on 6 or 8. That edge on 4 or 10 is better than 6-5 blackjack, and the others are in the range of maybes, depending on other blackjack house rules.

    BACCARAT

    You don't need to know any baccarat strategies. You don't even need to know much about the game, other than to stay away from betting on ties. But baccarat's two main options both have lower house edges than 6-5 blackjack.

    Baccarat table

    Two hands are dealt, one called the "banker" hand and the other the "player" hand. You may bet on either hand, and so may any other players at the table. Hands are played out according to a set strategy. You have no decisions to make.

    House edges are 1.06 percent on banker and 1.24 percent on player, making baccarat not only a better bet than 6-5 blackjack, but the best no strategy, no extra bet play around.

    VIDEO POKER

    Games and pay tables are highly variable, and you do have to learn optimal strategies to get the most out of video poker. But the best games have house edges among the lowest in casinos.

    It's even possible for players to claim an edge in some rare games. The 10-7-5 version of Double Bonus Poker returns 100.17 percent with expert play. That's the same as saying a 0.17 percent player edge.

    In non-wild card games, players usually differentiate them by looking at payoffs for full houses and flushes, along with straights in the case of Double Bonus Poker. The "10-7-5" in the Double Bonus game above pays 10-for-1 on full houses, 7-for-1 on flushes and 5-for-1 on straights. In 9-6-4 Double Bonus, full houses pay 9-for-1, flushes 6-for-1 and straights 4-for-1.

    Those payoffs give us a basis for comparing games. Each 1-unit difference in a full house or flush payoff adds or subtracts just over 1 percent in overall return.

    Let's make a list of commonly available games with a payback percentage of 99 percent or greater -- 1 percent house edge -- and another of 98 percent or greater -- 2 percent house edge. 

    Any of these may be worth considering instead of 6-5 blackjack. However, understand that video poker players play much faster than blackjack players. A full blackjack table might move at between 50 and 60 hands per hour, while it's easy to play 700 to 800 hands of video poker per hour. Calculate your casino bankroll and risk accordingly.

    99-PERCENT-PLUS: "Not so ugly" Deuces Wild (99.7 percent with expert play), 9-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.6), 9-6 Jacks or Better (99.5 percent); 8-5 Bonus Poker (99.2), 9-7-5 Double Bonus Poker (99.1)

    98 PERCENT-PLUS: 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker (99.0), 8-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (98.5), 9-5 Jacks or Better (98.5); 7-5 Bonus Poker (98.1).

    The 9-6 version of Double Double Bonus was listed under 98-plus because its 99.0 is actually a rounding from 98.98 percent.

    There are other qualifying games, including high-paying versions of Super Double Bonus Poker, White Hot Aces, One-Eyed Jacks and others. But this list will give you an idea of what to seek in the most commonly available games.

    THREE CARD POKER AND MISSISSIPPI STUD POKER

    Relatively new, poker-based games usually start with an ante, then have additional rounds of betting after you've seen cards.

    In such games, the house edge is evaluated in two ways: as a percentage of the ante and as a percentage of total bets, assuming you follow optimal strategy for the later wagers.

    In Three Card Poker's ante-play option in which your hand must beat the dealer, the house edge is 3.37 percent of the ante or 2.01 percent of the total action.

    The situation is similar in Mississippi Stud, where the house edge is 4.91 percent of your ante or 1.37 percent of the total action.

    If you make a $5 ante in Three Card Poker, your average total wager with optimal play will be about $8.40, and your average loss will be about the same as someone who bets $8.40 per hand in blackjack. 

    If you ante $5 in Mississippi Stud, your average total wager with optimal play will be about $17.95, and your average loss will be less than that for someone who bets $17.95 at 6-5 blackjack.

    That makes both Three Card Poker and Mississippi Stud viable options to 6-5 blackjack. So are the best bets at craps, baccarat and certain video poker games. 

    The choice is yours, but you don't have to settle for a substandard game if a casino pays only 6-5 on blackjacks.

    June 28, 2018

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski

    Shockwave Video Poker is a unique style of Jacks or Better video poker. There are two different modes of play – normal and Shockwave. The normal mode is exactly what it sounds like – normal Jacks or Better play. It accounts for well over 90 percent of play. The game operates in normal mode until a four-of-a-kind hit. It then enters “Shockwave” mode for ten plays or until another four-of-a-kind occurs, whichever happens first. And here is where it gets exciting. In Shockwave mode a four-of-a-kind pays the same as a royal flush. The complete paytable information for the 12/8/5 full-pay version is below. There are three different paytables; one for normal mode, one for Shockwave mode and a combined pay table.

    Note: the green-shaded cells represent improved pays, the red-shaded cells represent reduced pays compared to standard Jacks or Better games.

    Shockwave Poker - Full Pay (Normal Mode)
    Payback: 95.24%, Variance: 19.8%
    Hand 1 Coin 5 Coins
    Royal Flush 250 4000
    Straight Flush 100 500
    4 of a Kind 25 125
    Full House 12 60
    Flush 8 40
    Straight 5 25
    3 of a Kind 3 15
    2 Pair 1 5
    Jacks or Better 1 5
    Hand 5 Coins Pay Occurs Every % Return
    Royal Flush 4000 45,814 1.75
    Straight Flush 500 7,468.8 1.34
    4 of a Kind 125 438.1 5.71
    Full House 60 89.9 13.35
    Flush 40 58.7 13.63
    Straight 25 67.9 7.36
    3 of a Kind 15 14.2 21.12
    2 Pair 6 8.2 12.23
    Jacks or Better 5 5.3 18.75
    No Win 0 1.7 0
    Shockwave Poker – Full-Pay – (Shockwave Mode)
    Payback: 290.00 Percent, Variance: 1,683.1
    Hand 1 Coin 5 Coins
    Royal Flush 250 4000
    Straight Flush 100 500
    4 of a Kind 250 4000
    Full House 12 60
    Flush 8 40
    Straight 5 25
    3 of a Kind 3 15
    2 Pair 1 5
    Jacks or Better 1 5
    Hand 5 Coins Pay Occurs Every % Return
    Royal Flush 4000 49,854.6 1.6
    Straight Flush 500 9,253.2 1.08
    4 of a Kind 4000 382.3 209.33
    Full House 60 146.6 8.18
    Flush 40 100.2 7.98
    Straight 25 98.9 5.06
    3 of a Kind 15 12 25.05
    2 Pair 5 10.4 9.64
    Jacks or Better 5 4.5 22.07
    No Win 0 1.8 0
    Shockwave Poker – Full-Pay – (Combined)
    Payback: 99.59 Percent, Variance: 22.6
    Hand 1 Coin 5 Coins
    Royal Flush 250 4000
    Straight Flush 100 500
    4 of a Kind 44 220
    Full House 12 60
    Flush 8 40
    Straight 5 25
    3 of a Kind 3 15
    2 Pair 1 5
    Jacks or Better 1 5
    Hand 5 Coins Pay Occurs Every % Return
    Royal Flush 4000 46,237.4 1.73
    Straight Flush 500 7,909.5 1.26
    4 of a Kind 125 435.6 10.10
    Full House 60 89.5 13.41
    Flush 40 59.3 13.49
    Straight 25 68.6 7.29
    3 of a Kind 15 14.1 21.27
    2 Pair 5 8.1 12.3
    Jacks or Better 5 5.3 18.74
    No Win 0 1.7 0

    Notice the very high return and astronomical variance for shockwave mode. However, the game is only in Shockwave mode for about 9.8 plays once every 435 hands, so the impact on the combined paytable is minor.

    Some of the major differences between Shockwave and standard Jacks or Better are:

    • A straight flush occurs 15 percent more often but contributes 129 percent more thanks to the hand paying twice as much.
    • A four-of-a-kind occurs roughly the same amount, but it contributes 71 percent more.
    • A flush occurs 54 percent more often and contributes over 100 percent more.
    • A straight occurs 31 percent more often and contributes 62 percent more.
    • A hand containing two pair occurs roughly the same amount but contributes only about half the amount of standard Jacks or Better.

    When playing Shockwave, the two most noticeable changes from standard Jacks or Better are:

    • A hand of two pairs pays even money.
    • The excitement of the Shockwave mode.

    Several different short-pay versions are available. Due to the return percentages, there are only two of them that I recommend while playing video poker:

    • Full-Pay (12/8/5) with a combined return of 99.59 percent.
    • Short-Pay (11/8/5) with a combined return of 98.48 percent.

    SHOCKWAVE PLAYING STRATEGY

    To properly play Shockwave Poker, you want to be aggressive chasing four-of-a-kinds since that starts Shockwave mode. In Shockwave mode you are very aggressive chasing four-or-a-kinds since they pay as much as a royal flush.

    The video poker strategy is identical for either the full-pay (12/8/5) or the short-pay (11/8/5) versions of the game. The simplified Normal mode strategy follows.

    Strategy For Normal Mode Full-Pay (12/8/5) and Short-Pay (11/8/5) Shockwave Poker
    4-of-a-Kind or Better
    4-card Royal Flush
    Flush or Better
    4-card Open Straight Flush – Suited 2345-9TJQ
    3-of-a-Kind or Better
    Any 4-card Straight Flush incl. Inside
    Two Pair
    4-card Flush – 3 High Cards
    Suited QJT
    4-card Flush – 2 High Cards
    Suited KQJ
    Any 4-card Flush
    Any 3-card Royal Flush except AhT
    High Pair – JJ-AA
    Any 3-card Royal Flush
    KQJT, QJT9 (Straights)
    Suited JT9
    JT98 (Straight)
    Suited QJ9
    3-card Open Straight Flush – Suited 345-89T
    Any 4-card Open Straight, 0 High Cards – 2345-789T
    3-card Inside Straight Flush 1 Gap-1 High/2 Gaps-2 High
    Low Pair 22-TT
    3-card Inside Straight Flush, 1 Gap-o High Cards
    AKQJ (Straight)
    Any 3-card Inside Straight Flush
    Any 4-card Inside Straight, 1 Gap, 3 High Cards
    89T (Straight)
    Any 3-card Flush, 2 High Cards
    Any 2-card Royal Flush, 2 High cards
    Any 4-card Inside Straight, 2 High Cards
    Any 3-card Inside Straight Flush
    KQJ (Not Suited)
    3-card Flush, 1 High Card
    Suited JT
    QJT
    Any 4-card Inside Straight except 0 High Cards
    Suited QT
    QJ (Not Suited)
    Suited KT
    KQ, KJ (Not Suited)
    Suited J9
    AJ, J, AQ
    Suited AT
    Q, AK, K, A
    Any 4-card Inside Straight
    3-card Flush, 0 High Cards
    Any 2-card Open Straight Flush, 0 High Cards – 45-9T

    While that is quite a complex strategy, the strategy for Shockwave mode is simpler.

    Strategy For Shockwave Mode Full-Pay (12/8/5) and Short-Pay (11/8/5) Shockwave Poker
    4-of-a-Kind or Better
    3-of-a-Kind
    4-card Royal Flush
    Flush or Better
    4-card Open Straight Flush – Suited 2345-9TJQ
    Straight or Better
    Any 4-card Straight Flush incl. Inside
    High Pair – JJ-AA
    Low Pair – 22-TT
    Two Pair
    Suited QJT, KQJ
    Any 4-card Flush
    Any 3-card Royal Flush
    KQJT, QJT9 (Straights)
    Suited JT9
    89TJ (Straight)
    Suited QJ9
    Any 3-card Open Straight Flush – Suited 345-89T
    Any 4-card Open Straight – 2345-789T
    Any 3-card Straight Flush except 2 gaps, 0-1 High Cards
    Suited QJ
    AKQJ (Straight)
    Suited KQ, KJ
    J, Q
    Suited AK, AQ, AJ
    K, A
    3-card Inside Straight Flush, 2 Gaps, 1 High Card
    Any 4-card Inside Straight, 3 High Cards
    Any 3-card Inside Straight Flush
    Any 4-card Inside Straight, 2 High Cards
    KQJ (Straight)

    SUMMARY

    The relatively low variance for the combined mode and the relatively high returns for the full-pay version make Shockwave a decent game to play – if you can handle switching strategy during the Shockwave mode. Keep in mind, however, that most of the time you are playing in standard mode which has a house edge of 4.76 percent. Also, you will hit a four-of-a-kind in Shockwave mode only once in every 40-45 times you play it. Your video poker bankroll will be drawn down more quickly. So, if you want to play Shockwave Poker, make sure you have the bankroll and can handle the emotional aspect of losing fairly quickly until you hit those quads in Shockwave mode.

    If so, you should enjoy the game since Shockwave video poker adds the excitement of another jackpot-sized winner to the mix without the normal high variance. 

    June 25, 2018

    By Jerry Stich

    Jerry "Stickman" Stich
    Body

    Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

    Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

    Jerry Stich

    Golfing legend Arnold Palmer once quipped, “It’s a funny thing, the more I practice the luckier I get.” There is a whole lot of truth to what he said. Practice is important in developing and honing any skill.

    The greats in sports have rigorous practice sessions. Tennis great Ivan Lendl once said, “If I don’t practice the way I should, then I won’t play the way I know I can.” Another tennis star, Andre Agassi, is quoted as saying, “If you don’t practice you don’t deserve to win.”

    A good friend and fellow video poker player and I were talking about our video poker playing exploits. We both keep track of a variety of information during our playing sessions. Our records both include statistics used for supporting gambling wins and losses when reporting to the IRS. In addition, we both keep other information that can be helpful in analyzing our play. This information includes the number of hands played, number of four-of-a-kinds, number of straight flushes and number of royal flushes. In addition I keep track of the number of four to a flush dealt and the number of times that are filled.

    According to the video poker software we use, for the game that he plays, he should have been getting a straight flush once every 9,000 hands or so and a royal flush once every 40,000 hands (on average over the long run). Upon reviewing his statistics he noted that he only got three straight flushes and two royal flushes over that last 135,000 hands.

    Based on the long-term average, he should have hit at least three royal flushes and 15 straight flushes. Video Poker variance can easily account for the one royal flush that he is down and it could possibly also account for the 12 straight flush shortfall, but that is unlikely.

    I told him to try playing a few hands on my video poker training software to see how well he had his strategy down. It didn’t take long before the source of his problem became clear. Whenever he had two or three high cards he would always hold them even though there was a three-card straight flush.

    It is true that not every three card straight flush is a better hold than every two high card combination, but by not holding the proper cards he is dramatically reducing his chances of hitting the seemingly elusive straight flushes.

    I have a lot of respect for my friend’s grasp of gambling odds and edges and know that he plays very carefully. I am sure he felt he was playing absolutely correctly – even though he was not doing so.

    That got me thinking.

    I have been playing video poker for years. I play several times a month and am very comfortable with the game. I carry a strategy card with me and look at it when I am unsure of a close call, but that is it. I feel I have the strategy mastered. However, after what I saw with my friend I decided to try my hand at the video poker training software myself. I felt it would be no problem playing about an hour to an hour-and-a-half (at least one thousand hands) error-free.

    Was I ever in for a surprise.

    To summarize:

    • I missed a low pair on occasion when I had a couple of high cards.
    • I, too, missed three of a straight flush on occasion.
    • I made all the same mistakes my friend made.

    It was brutal. It was humbling.

    video poker

    But upon careful reflection, it was also inevitable. My “practice” was simply playing in a land-based or an online casino. I had no way of knowing when I made a mistake unless I happened to catch it myself. The more I played, the less I looked at the strategy card as I was more certain of close plays. Unless I took great care looking at the initial hands that were dealt, I would miss certain card combinations – especially when they were low cards.

    It was at this point I remembered a couple of other quotes I have heard (and used). 

    • The first is by Ed Murrow. “We cannot make good news out of bad practice.”
    • The second is one I use when helping others attain their goals. The great Vince Lombardi said, “Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect.”

    I had not followed this advice in my own play feeling I was too good to bother with training software. Because I played so frequently, I felt that I played perfectly. That obviously was not true. As I played more and more without using practice software, little mistakes crept into my play. Because I was so familiar with the game and the video poker strategy, I played faster. The faster play caused me to miss certain cards that should have been held. My ego kept me from realizing I needed to periodically have practice sessions even though I played regularly.

     

    Well no more. From now on my practice will be perfect practice – not just playing in the casinos. By using my video poker practice software to highlight my mistaken tendencies, I can better hone my skills and produce the best results possible. I will use perfect practice to help me play perfectly. In the process, I just might find that I start becoming luckier.

    A word to the wise: don’t feel you are too good for practice. You set yourself up for a fall when you do.

    June 18, 2018

    By Jerry Stich

    Jerry "Stickman" Stich
    Body

    Jerry “Stickman” has been involved in casino gambling for nearly 30 years. He is an expert in blackjack, craps, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He started playing blackjack in the late ‘80s, learned several card counting systems and used these skills to become an advantage blackjack player and overall winner of this game. He also acquired the skills necessary to become an overall winner in the game of craps, accomplishing this by a combination of throwing skill and proper betting techniques. Stich is also an overall winner playing video poker. This was accomplished by playing only the best games and using expert playing strategy. 

    Jerry used his skills to help others also become better gamblers. He has taught advantage play techniques in blackjack, craps, video poker and slot play to hundreds of students. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and has authored and co-authored various books on gambling.

    Jerry Stich
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    Casino gamblers know that the house has the edge on them; lottery players are also aware that the state-sponsored games also have a house edge, although most of these gamblers do not know what those edges are, how they are obtained, or what they mean in terms of the players’ losing expectation.

    Most gamblers are in a Random Harvest mode of mind. This brilliant 1941 movie based on the book by James Hilton starred Ronald Colman and Greer Garson. It dealt with a man who was shell-shocked in World War I, having lost his memory because of the various bombings and battles in which he engaged. Such bombings and attacks were accorded the name “random harvest” in that they killed and maimed without deciding who would get hit and who would survive. The random harvest of those bombs selected Colman’s character and dictated the events of his future life.

    I think many casino gamblers have a kind of random harvest where past negative experiences are often erased, as Colman’s memory was erased, and such gamblers head for their future casino and lottery conquests thinking their futures will be different.

    Most casino gamblers usually have one, some or a few betting systems they play in the hopes they can seduce Lady Luck into granting her favors. Most lottery players either have cards with their special numbers on them (birthdays, anniversaries, dates of significant moments in their lives and so forth) or use random selections of numbers made by the computer that runs the games. Scratch-off lottery players basically use a wing and a prayer in selecting what tickets they will play. 

    [Please note: All casino and lottery games are based on randomness and the probabilities inherent in the math of the contest or in the casino and lottery holding back some part of the winning wagers for itself; meaning they “tax” your wins.] 

    In the double-zero American roulette game, a payout on a number is 35 to one when the true-odds payout should be 37 to one since there are 38 numbers in total. The casino taxes the player two units on a win by paying 35 to one. 

    In craps, the Pass Line and Come bets will win 251 times for the casino and 244 times for the player, while the casino will tax the Place bets just as it taxes the above roulette payouts by returning less than what the winning wager is actually worth.

    Now for this article, I will focus my attention on the players who use the random selection principle in playing the lotteries and adapt that playing strategy for both roulette and craps.

    An acquaintance of mine, let’s name him Godfrey, has a unique system that is based on random picks that he uses to select other random picks. It is modeled after the computer selected lottery tickets – in short, it is using randomness to pick another randomness. It can go from roulette to craps and from craps to roulette.

    ROULETTE TO CRAPS

    If you take a look at the double-zero American roulette wheel you will notice 36 numbers from one to 36 along with two usually green or blue zeros. You have the option to bet on these numbers directly or by using some combination of them.

    Here is the procedure: You go to the roulette table and record a minimum of 10 individual hits in your notebook or on your phone (if the casino will allow the use of a phone, or if you are playing at an online casino from your PC/Mac). Let us say that the following numbers hit: 23, 35, 26, 5, 12, 8, 7, 19, 0 and 14.

    Godfrey tells us to take those numbers and translate them into craps numbers and then go to the craps table and bet these numbers. The craps numbers can be made as single numbers such as 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 but when the roulette number does not translate exactly we take the roulette number apart. That means a 26 becomes a 2 and a 6. You can bet one or both of these numbers. 

    We place no bets when the roulette numbers are 0, 00 and 1 as these do not translate into craps numbers and we do not bet the 7 as the house edge is a massive 16.67 percent, an expected loss of $16.67 per $100 wagered. We are still trying to keep the house edge somewhat reasonable.

    You will note that for the following numbers: 2, 3, 11 and 12, I recommend the field bet as the house edge is far lower on the field (5.56 percent) than betting these numbers straight up. The 2 and 12 have a house edge of 13.89 percent (an expected loss of $13.89 per $100 wagered) and the 3 and 11 have a house edge of 11.11 percent (an expected loss of $11.11 per $100 wagered). I am trying to keep the house edge on any bet under seven percent.

    [Please note: Although there are 36 possible ways the dice can form numbers, craps numbers only go from 2 through 12 because of these different combinations. For example, with two craps dice the 8 is made with a 6:2, 2:6; 4:4, 5:3 and 3:5.]

    So let us translate the roulette numbers into craps numbers.

    Roulette Numbers Craps Wager Roulette Numbers Craps Wager
    1 No Bet 20 2 or field*
    2 2 or field* 21 2 or field*
    3 3 or field* 22 2 or field*
    4 4 23 2, or field*
    5 5 24 2 or field*, 4
    6 6 25 2 or field*, 5
    7 No Bet 26 2 or field*, 6
    8 8 27 2 or field*
    9 9 28 2 or field*, 8
    10 10 29 2 or field*, 9
    11 11 or field* 30 3 or field*
    12 12 or field* 31 3 or field*
    13 3 or field* 32 2, 3 or field*
    14 4 33 3 or field*
    15 5 34 3 or field*, 4
    16 6 35 3 or field*, 5
    17 No Bet 36 3 or field*, 6
    18 8 0 No Bet
    19 9 00 No Bet

    *Field is the preferred bet.

    YOUR SCORECARD

    You can make copies of the above scorecard and use it when you are playing roulette. Just check the number that has been recorded for the previous spin of the wheel and you will know exactly what to do when you get to the craps tables. The above chart is the basic strategy of the Random Harvest method of betting the roulette numbers at craps. After a while, you will probably have the whole thing memorized as many blackjack players have their basic strategy memorized.

    THE ROULETTE SCOREBOARD

    The overwhelming majority of casinos today have scoreboards that usually show the last 20 numbers that have hit. If you wish you can record all those numbers and play them. You do not have to play all of them and you can juggle their order if you so wish. 

    My opinion is to just use the first 10 numbers and when finished with your craps bets, you go back to roulette and get another 10 numbers. Godfrey claims these numbers are “fresh.” You and I know that there is no such thing as a “fresh” number as these games are stagnant. Numbers are not like fruit on a tree; they may come and go but they don’t grow. The numbers are just the numbers. I guess you could say that the latest numbers are, well, the latest numbers.

    [Please note: A player going back and forth between the roulette tables and the craps tables is a smart strategy because it limits your betting and that is a good thing. By recording numbers, you are still playing but nothing can happen to your bankroll when doing so. You want to reduce the shot the casino has against you whenever you can but still feel you are in the game. The Random Harvest strategy allows you to do that.]

    WHEN TO QUIT

    As with all wagering systems, a player must know when he or she has had enough. It can be a good enough session or a not good enough session or a loss. The thing a player doesn’t want, and that must be avoided if possible, is suffering a big loss. Going home with your money burnt in the awful fires of bad luck is a sad and sometimes devastating experience. 

    Do not wait to establish a session bankroll as you start playing. Always know beforehand what you wish to bet over the course of a session. You must ask yourself these questions:

    • How long will your session be?
    • How much money is the maximum you will spend on any wager?
    • What is the maximum you can afford to lose in a given session without suffering angst?

    Often the length of a session is determined by time and money. If you lose “X” amount you will quit but sometimes “X” comes early and then you must have the discipline to quit at that point. Do not throw any more money into the game; take a walk, a swim, get something to eat or take a nap.

    Once those above questions are answered then you have the good question to handle. How do you deal with a win? Do you keep playing until the cows come home? (Where were those cows anyway?)

    The best way to handle a win is to put it aside but continue to play against your original bankroll. Let us say that you start with $300 and you bet $10 a decision. You are now up to $100. You still only play with that $300, meaning the most you can lose in that session is $200 because you have $100 locked up. 

    Let us say that you have won $200; you now put that aside and again play with the original $300. You now can only lose $100 as the $200 is locked away. A $300 win means you can’t lose. Any win over $300 means the session is a success.

    [Please note: Nothing is stopping you from taking any win and quitting right there. You are up $100 and you want to enjoy that win, then call it a session. How you handle your money is ultimately a decision you must make. You actually determine how much you lose but fate determines how much you win.]

    Craps dice smashing into pieces

    THE BAD NEWS AND THE GOOD NEWS

    It is fun to talk about gambling systems, which seems to be an ingredient in our natures, wanting to figure out how we can beat this, that or the other thing. How we can control our environments and our fates. Often our ideas are right; I mean mankind can fly and we actually sent men to the moon and a spacecraft to interstellar space.

    Still just about all gambling systems are losers and so too is the Random Harvest method of play. You didn’t think otherwise, did you? Godfrey doggedly maintains it is a great way to beat the casinos and he is happy playing it. More power to him but you should be warned; the house will still have its advantage over every number you bet at craps (or at roulette).

    Playing as I recommend will limit the house edge to bets under seven percent and that is somewhat manageable. Giving yourself a maximum loss level also allows you to play without fear of going home economically hammered. You must stick to your game plan made before you went to the casino. Self-control is always important when gambling in a casino or elsewhere.

    Playing betting systems is indeed fun and I want you to have fun with Random Harvest; it is, after all, a unique way to play; using the randomness of roulette to try to beat the randomness of craps. It is the same as using the lottery computer to pick the numbers when you play the lottery. 

    All the best in and out of the casinos!

    June 7, 2018

    By Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete
    Body

    Frank Scoblete grew up in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. He spent the ‘60s getting an education; the ‘70s in editing, writing and publishing; the ‘80s in theatre, and the ‘90s and the 2000s in casino gambling.

    Along the way he taught English for 33 years. He has authored 35 books; his most recent publisher is Triumph Books, a division of Random House. He lives in Long Island. Frank wrote the Roulette strategy guide and he's a well known casino specialist. 

    Frank Scoblete