The year 2012 was a sweet one for celebrity poker pro Phil Ivey and Cheung Yin “Kelly” Sun, a woman who would become known as the Queen of Sorts. 

Sun had designed a high-probability approach to beating mini-baccarat. It employs a technique known as edge sorting – hence, her nickname – in which, by spotting subtle asymmetries of patterns on the backs of playing cards, she is able to identify the game’s key cards.

The play requires Sun to prompt dealers to turn the game’s most important cards (7s, 8s and 9s) so that their shortly cut edges face the dealer when divvied out in coming shoes. Sharp eyesight, social engineering and casinos with favorable conditions allowed her to perform her responsibilities for the play. 

Cheung Yin "Kelly" Sun, the Queen of Sorts

Ivey, with a giant bankroll and a reputation as a casino whale, was able to get down five-figure bets and convince gambling dens to use brands of playing cards and types of shuffling machines that Sun could most effectively work with.

Over the course of 2012, they traveled the world and won 10s of millions of dollars from casinos. But that was then. The last 12 months have been decidedly sour for the pair of high-rollers.

In October 2017, the Supreme Court in Great Britain issued a ruling that Crockfords Casino in London does not need to pay them 7.7-million-pounds (worth approximately $11 million in 2012) that they won by using the edge sorting technique. Never mind that Ivey and Sun lost more than half-a-million dollars on their first day of running the gambit in London.

More crippling, on August 2018 a New Jersey court put out a decision that they need to return $10.13 million that they won from Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Ivey’s lawyer entered a request for a stay on the payment while the decision is appealed. That request was turned down. The eight-figure sum was won over the course of four sessions in 2012.

Both decisions are anti-player to the extreme. Any casual or pro-casino gamblers should be rattled by such outcomes. A lawyer, representing Ivey and Sun, maintains that making the payment will have a “devastating impact” on the wellbeing of his clients.

Sun says, “My feeling is that we won the money and we should not pay it back. My feeling is very bad. The casino took our bets and they paid us. Now they want us to pay them back 10 million. That is crazy. The casino takes big advantage. If they won $10 million from me, would they give it back? No way. Why should they expect me to give it back to them?”

Robert Loeb, a Chicago-based attorney who frequently works with advantage players, agrees with Sun. She and Ivey, says Loeb, “followed the rules that the casino agreed to. They agreed to those rules because [Sun and Ivey] were playing for the highest denomination chips and the casino thought it could win a lot of money. This was a product of greed and blindness.”

Weirdly, by the time Ivey and Sun made their last trip to Borgata, in October 2012, news of their tiff with Crockfords Casino in London had already broken. A headline in UK tabloid the Daily Mail trumpeted, “World’s number one poker player wins $11m in two nights – but top London casino REFUSES to pay.” US gambling sites quickly picked up on the report. By the time Ivey and Sun entered the Borgata, word of their situation with Crockfords had spread widely. In fact, according to Sun, that publicity is precisely what led her and Ivey to embark on their October trip to Atlantic City.

Pro Poker Celebrity, Phil Ivey

That journey is rooted in the final play that Ivey and Sun engaged in at Crockfords. It took place in August 2012 and ended with them ahead by some $11 million, a monstrous win by any standard. At the time, Sun feared that the casino would not pay them. Similar outcomes had already transpired for her at sore losing spots in the United States. But, as the front person in the play, Ivey was responsible for negotiating payment – and he did.

Representatives of Crockfords promised to wire the money into Ivey’s bank account. Sun says that the casino provided a receipt that stated as much. Satisfied, Ivey and Sun went their separate ways. He headed home to the United States where a close relative – a fabulously roguish uncle who Ivey referred to as Unk – was dying. Sun went to Paris where she hung out with friends.

The money, however, failed to materialize. Sun became convinced that Ivey was holding out on her. Ivey insisted that the casino was not paying. Finally, after a week, she told me that she called Ivey and said, “Phil, you don’t give me the money, it’s okay. It is only 10 million. It’s fine. You keep it.”

Coincidentally, though, just after the story broke in the Mail, Sun and Ivey encountered one another in Nice, the French city where a poker tournament was scheduled to take place. “Phil told me not to play the tournament,” Sun related to me. “He said that reporters were there and they knew about London.”

At that point, it became clear that Ivey had been honest about the missing millions. He did not receive the money. “We decided to fly to Atlantic City and play Borgata,” said Sun. “Phil and I flew private and split the cost.”

They encountered terrible weather en route to Atlantic City. There were fears that the jet would go down. Rough travel conditions could have been viewed as an omen, but the game at Borgata was too good to turn away from.

On their previous three visits, Ivey and Sun won more than $9 million. During one session, they were not even slowed down by an uninvited visit from blackjack whale Don Johnson, a friend of Ivey’s. 

As Johnson recalls it, he saw Ivey and Sun playing baccarat at a private table. Sun, Johnson told me, “did not look like she’d be on of Phil’s playmates.” It led him to believe that the two gamblers were playing at an advantage. Johnson maintains that he slipped in, mirrored Ivey’s bets and won a tidy sum.

As Sun remembers it, “I said that I would not play until Don left. Phil said that Don is a friend. He wanted Don to stay. But finally Don left and we continued playing.”

During their fourth and final trip to Borgata, it’s easy to imagine that Ivey and Sun would feel concern about the possibility of being turned away. News of their issue with Crockfords was in the poker and gaming media. But Borgata management   allowed them to play seemingly unfettered. They won more than $900,000 and cashed their chips without obvious incident.

It all changed in 2016. That was when, in the wake of a positive outcome for Crockfords, in the suit brought by Ivey and Sun, Borgata began rallying to get its money back. The casino’s legal maneuverings resulted in the original December 2016 ruling that the advantage players have to pay back their money. What will ultimately get refunded and when it will happen both remain unknown. One thing, though, is certain. As of now, the hand being dealt Ivey, Sun and the Borgata has yet to completely play itself out – and Ivey is no stranger to catching a miracle card on the river.

September 16, 2018

By Michael Kaplan

Michael Kaplan
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    Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He has written extensively on gambling for publications such as Wired, Playboy, Cigar Aficionado, New York Post and New York Times. He is the author of four books including Aces and Kings: Inside Stories and Million-Dollar Strategies from Poker’s Greatest Players.

    He’s been known to do a bit of gambling when the timing seems right.

    Michael Kaplan
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    Any live or online blackjack player’s stress level increases when the dealer flips over an Ace as her upcard. That’s because she has only an 11.5% chance of busting and a whopping 88.5% chance of getting to a final hand that totals17 through 21 (assumes the dealer did not peek at her down card to determine if she has a blackjack).

    It’s clear the dealer has a significant advantage with an Ace upcard but since we can’t change the cards that we are dealt, we must play them in a way that will decrease our expected long-term losses. This means being more aggressive when we are a dealt a stiff hand (hit rather than stand) and less aggressive when we are dealt a two-card soft hand (hit rather than double down). We also should surrender several hands (even when it results in forfeiting half our bet), and play some hands differently depending upon the composition of the cards in our hand.  What follows is the accurate playing strategy for any hand when the dealer shows an Ace upcard. 

    Notations used in this article:
    S17 = Dealer must stand on soft 17
    H17 = Dealer must hit soft 17
    DAS = Doubling down after pair splitting is allowed
    NDAS = Doubling down after pair splitting is not allowed
    H = Hit
    S = Stand
    P = Split
    Dh = Double down if allowed; otherwise, hit
    Rh = Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit.
    Rs = Surrender if allowed, otherwise stand
    Rp = Surrender if allowed, otherwise split

    MULTI-DECK GAME

    There are several differences in the playing strategy for multi-deck games depending if the blackjack rules are S17 or H17. I’ll summarize the strategy for S17 first, then show the changes when the game is H17.

    WITH S17

    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit, if holding a hard 16
    • Split if holding a pair of As or 8s
    • Hit if holding a hard 5 through 15, A-2 through A-7 or a pair of 2s through 7s
    • Stand if holding a hard 17 through 20, A-8 and A-9  or a pair of 9s and 10s

    Below is the corresponding blackjack strategy arranged into three color-coded tables for Hard Hands, Soft Hands, and Pairs. The first row in each table represents the player’s hand (in the case of hard hands, it represents the total count of the cards), and the second row contains the correct playing strategy against a dealer’s Ace upcard for an S17 game.

     

    Hard Hands
    5-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H H H H H H H Rh S

     

    Soft Hands
    A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 A-8 A-9
    H H H H H H S S

     

    Pairs
    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H H P S S

    WITH H17

    If the rules are H17, make the following four changes to the above strategy against a dealer Ace upcard:

    • Surrender hard 15 if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Double down Hard 11 if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Surrender Hard 17 if allowed, otherwise stand
    • Surrender a pair of 8s if allowed, otherwise split

    The color-coded strategy chart below for hard hands and pair splitting corresponds to the above H17 strategy.

    Hard Hands
    5-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H H Dh H H H H Rh

    S

     

    Pairs
    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H H Rh S S

    WHAT IF YOU ARE PLAYING A DOUBLE-DECK GAME?

    WITH S17

    The playing strategy for a double-deck game with S17 is the same as it is for multi-deck/S17 game except for one change:

    • Double down hard 11 if allowed, otherwise hit
    5-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H H Dh H H H H Rh S

    WITH H17

    If the rules are H17 with NDAS, the playing strategy is the same as it is for the above multi-deck/H17 game.

    If the rules are H17 with DAS, the playing strategy is the same as it is for the above  multi-deck/H17 game with one change:

    • Split a pair of 8s (instead of surrendering)
    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H H P S S

    WHAT IF YOU ARE PLAYING A SINGLE-DECK GAME?

    WITH S17

    The strategy is the same as the above multi-deck/ S17 strategy except for these two strategy changes:

    • Double down hard 11 if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Stand on A-7 instead of hitting
    Hard Hands
    5-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H H Dh H H H H Rh

    S

     

    Soft Hands
    A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 A-8 A-9
    H H H H H S S S

     

    WITH H17

    The strategy is the same as the above multi-deck/ H17 strategy except for these two strategy changes:

    • Surrender a pair of 7s if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Split a pair of 8s instead of surrendering
    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H Rh P S S

    FOR MORE PRECISION

    You can gain some precision in your playing strategy if you take into consideration the composition of the cards that comprise certain hands. This is especially the case with a double- and multi-deck game when the blackjack dealer is showing an Ace upcard.

    DOUBLE-DECK GAME

    If the game is S17:

    • Hit a hard 11 consisting of 9-2 or 8-3 instead of doubling

    If the game is H17:

    • Hit a hard 15 consisting of an 8-7 instead of surrendering

    SINGLE-DECK GAME

    If the game is S17:

    • Hit a hard 16 consisting of 9-7 instead of surrendering

    If the game is H17:

    • Hit a hard 15 consisting of 8-7 instead of surrendering 
    • Stand on a hard 17 consisting of 9-8 instead of surrendering

    PRACTICE PLAY

    To be sure you have the strategy down pat for playing your hand against a dealer’s Ace upcard, determine how you would play each of the 10 hands listed below, jot down your decision on paper, and then check it against the correct play at the end of this article. (Your goal is to be able to play every hand accurately, regardless of the number of decks of cards or mix of playing rules.)

    GAME HAND PLAY
    Single-deck,  H17, NDAS 8-7  
    Multi-deck, S17, DAS 8-8  
    Multi-deck, H17, DAS 8-8  
    Double-deck, S17, DAS 9-2  
    Double-deck, S17, DAS 7-4  
    Multi-deck, H17, DAS 10-7  
    Multi-deck, H17, DAS A-7  
    Single-deck, H17, DAS 9-8  
    Double-deck, S17, DAS 9-7  
    Single-deck, S17, NDAS A-7  

    For more playing strategy tips, consult Chapter 3 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.

    Correct plays for the hands in the above table are:

    • Hit
    • Split
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise split
    • Hit
    • Double down if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise stand.
    • Hit
    • Stand
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit.
    • Stand
    September 3, 2018

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
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    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

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    When a dealer shows a 10 upcard at online or live blackjack, she or he is in the driver’s seat because they have a 77% chance of getting to a final hand that totals 17 through 21 and only a 23% chance of busting. A ten, therefore, is a very strong dealer upcard. This means we have to be more aggressive when we are a dealt a stiff hand (hit rather than stand) and less aggressive when we are dealt a two-card soft hand (hit rather than double down). We also should surrender several hands even when it results in forfeiting half our bet. What follows is the accurate blackjack strategy for any hand when the dealer shows a ten upcard. 

    Fortunately for players, the playing strategy against a dealer’s ten upcard is nearly the same for any number of decks of cards or mix of playing rules, with only a few exceptions discussed below.

    Notations used in this article:
    S17 = Dealer must stand on soft 17 (A-6)
    H17 = Dealer must hit soft 17
    DAS = Doubling down after pair splitting is allowed
    NDAS = Doubling down after pair splitting is not allowed
    H = Hit
    S = Stand
    P = Split
    Dh = Double down if allowed; otherwise, hit
    Rh = Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit.
    Rs = Surrender if allowed, otherwise stand

    MULTI-DECK GAME

    Regardless of the blackjack rules, use the following strategy when facing a dealer’s 10 upcard.

    Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit, if holding:

    • Hard 15 and 16

    Double down if allowed; otherwise hit, if holding:

    • Hard 11

    Split if holding:

    • Pair of As, and 8s

    Hit if holding:

    • Hard 5 through 10
    • Hard 12 through 14
    • A-2 through A-7
    • Pair of 2s through 7s

    Stand if holding:

    • Hard 17 through 20
    • A-8 and A-9
    • Pair of 9s and 10s

    Below is the corresponding blackjack strategy arranged into three color-coded tables for Hard Hands, Soft Hands, and Pairs. The first row in each table represents the player’s hand (in the case of hard hands, it represents the total count of the cards), and the second row contains the correct playing strategy against a dealer’s 10 upcard regardless of the mix of rules.

    MULTI-DECK: HARD HANDS VS. A DEALER'S 10 UPCARD

    5-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H H Dh H H H Rh Rh S

    MULTI-DECK: SOFT HANDS VS. A DEALER'S 10 UPCARD

    A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 A-8 A-9
    H H H H H H S S

    MULTI-DECK: PAIRS VS. A DEALER'S 10 UPCARD

    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H H P S S

    WHAT IF YOU ARE PLAYING A DOUBLE-DECK GAME?

    You are in luck. The playing strategy for a double-deck game is identical to the above multiple-deck game.

    WHAT IF YOU ARE PLAYING A SINGLE-DECK GAME?

    The strategy is the same as the multi-deck strategy above except for the following two strategy changes:

    • Hit (rather than surrender) hard 15 against a dealer 10 upcard
    • Surrender 7-7 against a blackjack dealer 10 if allowed, otherwise stand.

    SINGLE DECK: HARD HANDS VS. A DEALER'S 10 UPCARD

    5-10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-20
    H Dh H H H H Rh S

    SINGLE DECK: PAIRS VS. A DEALER'S 10 UPCARD

    A-A 2-2 3-3 4-4 5-5 6-6 7-7 8-8 9-9 10-10
    P H H H H H Rs P S S

    FOR MORE PRECISION

    You can gain some precision in your playing strategy if you take into consideration the composition of the cards that comprise your 15 and whether your 16 is multi-card or the result of a split.

    • In a double- or multi-deck game, if your 15 consists of an 8-7, hit against a dealer 10 upcard (rather than surrender).
    • •    In all games, if your 16 is multi-card or the result of a pair split, stand against a dealer’s 10 upcard instead of hit.

    PRACTICE PLAY

    To be sure you have the strategy down pat for playing your hand against a dealer’s 10 upcard, determine how you would play each of the 10 hands listed below, jot down your decision on paper, and then check it against the correct play at the end of this article. (Your goal is to be able to play every hand accurately, regardless of the number of decks of cards or mix of playing rules.)

    GAME HAND PLAY
    Single-Deck 10-5  
    Multi-Deck 9-9  
    Double-Deck 6-4  
    Multi-Deck 10-5  
    Double-Deck 8-8  
    Double-Deck 10-4-2  
    Single Deck 7-7  
    Multi-Deck 5-5  
    Double-Deck 9-6  
    Double-Deck 6-5  

    For more playing strategy tips, consult Chapter 3 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and see the Blackjack Chart tables

    Correct plays for the hands in the table are:

    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Stand
    • Hit
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Split 
    • Stand
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise stand
    • Hit
    • Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit
    • Double down if allowed, otherwise hit
    September 2, 2018

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
    Body

    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

    Henry Tamburin Ph.D
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    You see the casinos have locked in certain percentages that are difficult to overcome by adding something extra to the game. So what is to be done to push the house at roulette?

    It is important to know how the edges are arrived at – in reality, that is important in any casino game that you play. 

    THE TWO ROULETTES

    There are two roulette games extant in the world; the American double-zero game with a 0 pocket and a 00 pocket on the wheel, and the European single-zero roulette game with just a 0 pocket on the wheel. The European game is far superior to the American game as its house edge is almost half that of the American version, 2.7 percent to 5.26 percent respectively.

    Please note: House edges can be translated into money by putting a dollar sign in front of the first number and making this the amount one loses for every $100 wagered. Thus, the American house edge will lose the player $5.26 per $100 wagered, while the European game will lose the player $2.70 per $100 wagered.

    Given access to the European game and having the betting limits that a player can handle – meaning the money wagered is the same the player would bet at the double-zero wheel – then selecting the European game is the way to go. Doing that is not just pushing the house; it is merely common sense. 

    HOW THE CASINO GETS ITS EDGE

    Here is a simple way to understand how the edges at both roulette games are established. I am taking this directly from our guide to roulette which can be found on this site.

    The American wheel has 38 numbers and the payment for a winning bet is 35 to 1. In a fair game, one where the casino does not have the edge, the payout for the winning bet should be 37 to 1. In short, you bet 1 and you win 37. So you will lose 37 times but win once and the game is even; there is no edge for either the player or the casino. That is zero percent.

    Casinos cannot make a profit on such a game, so they pay back less than the bet is worth, 35 units instead of 37 units. It keeps two units for itself. Just divide 38 into 2 and the house edge is 5.26 percent. This 5.26 percent is the house edge on the inside numbers and the outside propositions such as red-black, odd-even and so forth.

    The European game as stated is better than the American game, because of that single 0. There are 37 numbers and the casino pays back 35 to 1 for a winning bet. The casino is keeping “1” as opposed to the American casinos keeping “2.” Just divide 37 into 1 and the house edge is 2.70 percent. 

    However, you will find that the casinos that offer both games might make the minimum roulette bet at the European single-wheel higher – maybe $25 instead of $10. If that happens you must do some quick figuring or check this chart in order to see what the expected loss of your bets would be (I’ve rounded the money) and choose the bet that loses you less money over time;

    Double-Zero Bet Expected Loss Single-Zero Bet Expected Loss
    $10 53 cents $10 27 cents
    $20 $1.05 $20 54 cents
    $25 $1.32 $25 68 cents
    $50 $2.63 $50 $1.35
    $75 $3.95 $75 $2.03
    $100 $5.26 $100 $2.70
    $200 $10.52 $200 $5.40

    Please note: The reason that the European game is better has to do with the absence of that second zero. The payout for a win is based on one hit in 37 attempts in the European wheel but one hit in 38 attempts in the American wheel. The actual payouts for those hits are the same at 35 to one, making the European Roulette wheel far better to play.

    SUCKER BETS AT ROULETTE

    Although most bets at roulette come in with either the 5.26 percent as on the American wheel or the 2.7 percent on the European wheel, you’ll find that some bets are actually different at each of the games and one bet at the American game is so decidedly awful that it has a far higher house edge than all the other bets. The casino does not explain these bets on their signage at the tables; you have to figure them out for yourself.

    Sucker Bet #1

    Separately betting two or more individual numbers directly on the layout with two or more bets.

    If you decide to bet two or more numbers by putting up the same amount on each of the numbers you are betting too much. A $10 bet on the five and a $10 bet on the six means the casino is going for their percent on both bets. The more bets you make, the more games you are playing which means, naturally, the more money you stand to lose.

    If you must bet multiple numbers you can use special “line bets” where you bet one chip to cover two or more numbers. This keeps the bet low but gives you the chance to win at roulette if one of your numbers comes up. 

    Let me give you an example from our roulette guide of such a roulette strategy: The Street Bet, or Three Number Bet or “Side Bet” or The Trio (French: Transversal)

    Roulette Wheels: American & European

    You’d think with all these titles for the bet that it would pay off at thousands to one. Nope. It is merely a bet on three numbers. You make the bet by placing your chips on the outside border of the three numbers. A winning bet pays off at 11 to1. The house edge on the American double-zero wheel is 5.26 percent and it is 2.70 percent on the single-zero European wheel.

    You can find many such “line bets” on the numbers at both roulette games so do check out our roulette guide for all of them. These will make you ignore the big mistake of making multiple bets on multiple numbers.

    However there is a far better way to bet multiple bets as I shall show you shortly. Many players, for their own idiosyncratic reasons, prefer to go the tougher route of betting more of the numbers and spending more of their money to do so – go figure.

    Sucker Bet #2

    Never bet the “monster” on the American roulette game. 

    The monster isn’t under the bed but right there at the game of live roulette – the American version of the game that is. The “monster,” also known as “the beast,” is a “line bet” of the first five numbers: the 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3 with a win paid at 6 to 1. The house edge is a huge 7.89 percent, an expected loss of $7.89 per $100 wagered. Never make this bet. Here the house is pushing the player to make a major mistake – don’t be fooled! Pass this bet by.

    Sucker Bet #3

    Here it is folks: get your chips, start putting them on the layout, bet it up and never ask the most important question that must be answered to understand what is really happening at the game you are playing.

    There is an option in both the American and European versions of roulette that can reduce the house edge in half! That’s right, the American game can drop to a 2.63 edge from a 5.26 percent while the European game can go down to a wonderful 1.35 percent – which stands as one of the best bets in the casino.

    This bet, called “surrender,” can be found at some casinos in the United States and its European equivalent, called “en prison,” can be found at many casinos outside the United States.

    This pushing of the house can only occur if you are betting any of three propositions, the odd/even, the red/black and the high/low. 

    If the 0 or 00 appears in the American game one-half of your bet on any of these propositions is returned to the player. The house edge drops to 2.63 percent from 5.26 percent. That is some bargain.

    Now, in the European game the result is even better. If the 0 appears the “en prison” rule applies. Your bet is locked up, meaning it is neither won nor lost. It awaits the next spin of the wheel. If the spin shows a winner, you get your full bet returned; if decision shows a loser, you lose your bet.

    This rule reduces the house edge from 2.7 percent to 1.35 percent. This wager is now better than the Pass Line or Come bet at the game of craps. It is truly silly to play a European wheel that has this option and not just stick to these three propositions.

    ROULETTE BETS: THE ONE, THE MANY OR THE MAYBE?

    There is a tension, so to speak, between those roulette players who prefer to bet one chip and those who prefer to spread out their money on multiple bets. To me the one-chippers have the right idea because one chip can actually be a multiple-number wager. 

    That is correct.

    If you take a look at the premier propositions at roulette, the odd/even, the red/black and the high/low you only have to bet one chip yet you are actually betting on almost half the numbers in the game. On the American wheel you are betting 18 numbers of the 38, while on the European wheel you are betting 18 numbers of the 37. That’s a lot of numbers for just one chip.

    Throw in the “surrender” or “en prison” rule and you have multiple bets with one-half the normal house edge at the game. There is no reason to bet any other way.

    But what of the players who just love that big payout on betting directly on those inside numbers? I certainly recognize that a 35 to one win is a great payout. Still, those wins do not come very often do they? 

    Yes, the house edge is always 5.26 percent or 2.7 percent on any single bet but your chances of winning on any given decision with the premier even-money proposition bets is far better than your chances of winning that 35 to one payout. In addition, many players cannot resist putting out more (or far more) money when the bet on the inside than they would if they were betting one of the premier even-money bets. Consider that.

    Please note: the premier bets of the odd/even, red/black or high/low are also called even-money bets because they pay out at one-to-one. You bet $10 and a win is $10.

    If you wish to save money and still have loads of fun at roulette let me encourage you to seriously consider betting those premier even-money bets. If the casino game has either “surrender” or “en prison” then there should be no question about only using these as your betting options. Why would anyone want to play against a house edge that is double at games with “surrender” or “en prison”?

    All the best in and out of the casinos!

    August 9, 2018

    By Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete
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    Frank Scoblete grew up in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. He spent the ‘60s getting an education; the ‘70s in editing, writing and publishing; the ‘80s in theatre, and the ‘90s and the 2000s in casino gambling.

    Along the way he taught English for 33 years. He has authored 35 books; his most recent publisher is Triumph Books, a division of Random House. He lives in Long Island. Frank wrote the Roulette strategy guide and he's a well known casino specialist. 

    Frank Scoblete
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    Among all the skills needed to get the most out of casino games online and offline, one of the most important for casino players is choosing your wagers wisely.

    And an important part of choosing your wagers wisely is knowing which bets never to make.

    Sometimes that means avoiding bets with extraordinarily high house edges. Sometimes it means skipping a bet because a better option is available that accomplishes the same thing with a lower house edge.

    Here are a big four among common casino wagers you should NEVER make:

    BACCARAT: THE TIE BET

    Only two hands are dealt in baccarat: a player hand and a banker hand. 

    Everyone can bet on either hand. Banker wins more often than player, so those who win banker bets must play the house a 5 percent commission -- the payoff is even money minus that 5 percent. Winning player hands are paid at even money.

    Both are among the better bets around, with a 1.06 percent house edge on banker and 1.24 percent on player.

    There's a third option. You can bet that the two hands will tie.

    Winning bets on ties are paid at 8-1 odds. That's tempting for those looking to make a fast profit instead of grinding it out with even-money payoffs.

    But the true odds against winning a tie bet are 9.526-1, not 8-1, and the house edge is a whopping 14.4 percent.

    When you have two available bets with house edges just a little over 1 percent, why would you make a bet with a 14.4-percent edge? No reason at all.

    CRAPS: BIG 6 AND BIG 8

    There are many bets to avoid in craps, especially in the one-roll propositions. House edges of 16.67 percent on any 7, 11.11 percent on any craps and others are too high to overcome.

    But there are a couple of multi-roll bets with a sneaky high house edge.

    Craps table layout

    In two corners of the layout, you'll see a big red 6 next to a big red 8. Those are Big 6 and Big 8.

    They play exactly like place bets on 6 and 8. If you bet on Big 6 and the shooter rolls a 6 before rolling a 7, you win. If a 7 comes first, you lose. No other numbers matter -- if the shooter rolls a sequence such as 5, 9, 3 12, 4, 5, there is no decision. Your bet either stays in action or you can take it down.

    The difference is that place bets on 6 and 8 pay 7-6 odds, while Big 6 and Big 8 pay even money.

    That difference in payoffs lead to a dramatic gap in the house edge. The house has a 1.52 percent edge on place bets on 6 and 8, but 9.09 percent on Big 6 and Big 8.

    Because of the 7-6 payoffs, you want to bet in multiples of $6 when placing 6 or 8. There is no such imperative on Big 6 and Big 8. But you actually average more in losses when betting $5 on Big 6 or 8 than when placing 6 or 8.

    Here's how that works:

    Let's say I place $6 on 8 for each of 36 spins in which each combination of two dice comes up once. You bet $5 on Big 8 on the same 36 spins.

    On 25 of the spins, the roll is neither a loser 7 or a winner 8, and we just keep our money. 

    We can focus on the 11 wagers on which bets are decided. On those, I have $66 at risk on my place bets, while you're risking $55 on Big 8.

    On each of the five winners, I get my $6 back and get $7 in winnings. That means at the end of the trial I have $65 of my original $66.

    On each winner, you get your $5 bet back and get $5 in winnings. Your total is $50, while the house has kept $5 of your original $55.

    I've bet more money than you, and we've won and lost on the same rolls, but you've lost five times as much money as me.

    Never bet on Big 6 or Big 8. If you want to bet those numbers, use place bets instead.

    ROULETTE: THE FIVE-NUMBER BET IN DOUBLE-ZERO

    This is not a factor if you're playing roulette with a single-zero wheel. The five-number bet doesn't exist.

    But on the double-zero wheel used by nearly all American casinos and which also is available in many online or international casinos, you can bet on 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3 all at once.

    The payoff is 6-1, but that's no bargain. The house edge of 7.89 percent is one and a half times the house edge of 5.26 percent of available bets.

    You can bet on the same five numbers and get the lower house edge on many different ways. 

    If you bet $5 on the five-number bet and I bet $1 each on 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3, we each risk the same amount per spin.

    In 38 spins in which each number comes up once, we each bet a total of $190.

    Roulette table layout

    On each of the five winning spins -- when the ball lands in 0, 00, 1, 2 or 3 -- you get your $5 bet back and get $30 in winnings. At the end of the trial, you have $175 of your original $190.

    My single numbers win five times and are paid at 35-1 odds. On each winner, I get the $1 back that I bet on that number, and get $35 in winnings. When all is done, my total is $180 of my original $190.

    We've bet the same amount on the same numbers, but at the end of the trial I have $5 more than you do.

    You can accomplish the same thing in different ways. You could bet $3 on the three-number street 1, 2 and 3 and a $2 split on 0 and 00. You could bet a $2 split on 1 and 2, a $1 single number on 3 and a $2 split on 0 and 00.

    However you want to do it, the house edge on your combination will be 5.26 percent as long as you avoid the five-number bet. That's one of those bets you never want to make.

    BLACKJACK INSURANCE

    This one needs a qualifier: You should never take insurance in blackjack unless are a card counter. For card counters who know there is a higher than usual concentration of 10-value cards remaining in the deck, insurance is a viable option. For the vast majority of players, it's a bet to avoid.

    The basics, when the blackjack dealer has an Ace face up, he asks players if they want to take insurance.

    Taking insurance requires making a wager half the size of your original bet. If you have a $10 bet, you'd then bet $5 on insurance. 

    Insurance pays off if the dealer has a 10-value card face down to complete a blackjack. That yields a 2-1 payoff on blackjacks.

    If a third of the cards were 10-values, insurance would be an even bet. Then you'd win on insurance an average of once per three hands. If you bet $5 on insurance three times for a total of $15. You'd lose twice, but the one time you won, you'd keep the $5 insurance bet and collect $10 in winnings - the $15 on the one winner would balance your $15 total risk.

    However, only 30.8 percent of cards are 10 values, so you lose insurance bets 69.2 percent of the time and the house has a 7.6 percent edge.

    When you have blackjack, a form of insurance is offered called "even money." Instead of playing the handout and risking the hand pushing if the dealer has a 10 value down, you tell the dealer "even money." You give up the chance at a 3-2 payoff if your blackjack wins, but you are guaranteed to win every time.

    It's a bad tradeoff for the player.

    In an average 1,000 trials in which you're betting $10 a hand and have blackjack, you could call even money and guarantee $10,000 in winnings.

    However, if you take your chances and play out the hand, you win an average of 692 times. Multiply by 1.5 for the 3-2 payoff, and you get 1,038, and multiply that by your $10 in wagers, and you bet $10,380 in winnings.

    Pushes may be frustrating, but by risking the pushes and declining insurance, you win more money.

    Unless you're counting cards and know there's an excess of 10-values, NEVER take insurance, including its even-money form.

    August 6, 2018

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski

    The following ten strategy tips are for casual blackjack players who want to increase their odds of winning while having fun playing blackjack.

    THE BEST 10 TIPS ON HOW TO WIN AT BLACKJACK:

    1. Play games with liberal playing rules
    2. Learn the basic playing strategy
    3. Use a strategy card
    4. Avoid making the insurance wager
    5. Ignore your fellow players
    6. Avoid progressive strategies
    7. Don’t believe you are due to win
    8. Don’t play on tables that use a continuous shuffler
    9. Get rated when you play
    10. Go easy on the booze

     

    STRATEGY TIP #1. PLAY ONLY GAMES WITH LIBERAL PLAYING RULES

    Scout the blackjack tables to find the most liberal playing rules. Play only on tables where a blackjack pays 3-2 (and avoid all games where the payoff is 6 to 5 blackjack, or worse, even money). Other liberal blackjack rules are the dealer stands on soft 17, players can double down on any two cards, and doubling after pair splitting is allowed. (If surrender is offered, better yet.) Fewer decks are better than more decks.

    BOTTOM LINE

    A single- or double-deck game has better odds for a player than a six- or eight-deck game (assuming the same rules).

    STRATEGY TIP #2. LEARN THE BASIC PLAYING STRATEGY

    Blackjack strategy is not a guessing game where sometimes you hit your 16 against a dealer ten upcard whereas other times you stand. Brilliant mathematicians have been studying the game of blackjack for over 60 years and what they have proven without a doubt is that there is an optimal way to play every hand dealt to you. This optimal blackjack strategy, known as the basic playing strategy, allows a player to minimize the house edge to less than 1% when a player uses the strategy to play every hand.

    BOTTOM LINE

    You should never play blackjack without knowing and using the proper basic playing strategy for the rules set that you are playing against.

    STRATEGY TIP #3. USE A STRATEGY CARD

    An obvious tip, yet how many land-based or live blackjack players do you see using a strategy card when they play blackjack? These plastic laminated cards are readily available, casino-legal, and you can refer to them to be sure you always make the correct decision on every hand dealt to you, to avoid costly playing mistakes.

    Note: For security reasons, casinos don’t allow players to place strategy cards — or other “things” — on a blackjack table, so just hold the card in your hand, and if you are unsure as to how to play a particular hand, glance at your strategy card for the answer.

    BOTTOM LINE

    Strategy cards can reduce your mistakes while playing blackjack. 

    STRATEGY TIP #4. AVOID MAKING THE INSURANCE WAGER

    Don’t make the Insurance wager no matter how much money you wagered on your hand. Insurance is a sucker bet. You are betting that the dealer has a ten-value downcard to go with her Ace upcard (thus giving her a blackjack). A winning insurance bet pays 2-1 but the odds of winning are worse than 2-1.

    BOTTOM LINE

    In that particular situation, even if you have a blackjack, and the dealer offers you even money, decline it.
     

    STRATEGY TIP #5. IGNORE YOUR FELLOW PLAYERS

    The playing decisions of other players on your table have no effect in the long run on your odds of winning. Blackjack is not a team sport. Always use the basic playing strategy regardless of how the other players play their hand, how much you bet, and whether you lost or won the previous sessions.

    BOTTOM LINE

    You're not in charge of other players winnings, only yours. 

    STRATEGY TIP #6. AVOID PROGRESSIVE STRATEGIES

    Sizing your bet based on whether you won or lost the previous hand is a losing proposition. You should only bet more when there are more high-valued cards vs low-valued cards in the unplayed pack of cards. (This is what card counting systems monitor.)

    BOTTOM LINE

    There are several simple, entry-level, card-counting systems that I recommend for casual players. (See Chapter 10 in my Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.)

    bj

    STRATEGY TIP #7. DON’T BELIEVE YOU ARE DUE TO WIN

    Don’t increase your bets because you feel you are due to win at the game of blackjack. The cards don’t know and they don’t care whether you are in the midst of a losing (or winning) streak.

    BOTTOM LINE

    Regardless of what happened during your previous playing sessions, stay the course and follow the tips in this article.

    STRATEGY TIP #8. DON’T PLAY ON TABLES THAT USE A CONTINUOUS SHUFFLER

    Continuous shuffling machines (CSMs) are devices that shuffle the cards after each round, which results in more hands dealt per hour (good for the casino), and more exposure of your bankroll to the house edge (bad for the player), Play on tables that use a traditional mechanical shuffler (where the cards are shuffled after 50% to 75% of them have been played), or where the dealer manually shuffles the cards.

    BOTTOM LINE

    Additionally, play on crowded tables (this will reduce the number of hands you play per hour, which will decrease the exposure of your bankroll to the house edge).

    STRATEGY TIP #9.  GET RATED WHEN YOU PLAY

    Always give your player’s card to the blackjack dealer to get rated for your play. The extra perks (i.e., comps) you get will reduce your cost of playing. 

    STRATEGY TIP #10. GO EASY ON THE BOOZE

    Alcoholic drinks are “free” when you play in most casinos but too much booze will dull your senses and increase your chances of making a costly playing mistake. Stay focused on playing every hand perfectly. 

    November 24, 2020

    By Henry Tamburin Ph.D

    Henry Tamburin
    Body

    Henry Tamburin is one of world’s most respected blackjack experts and a world-class player. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide, and Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. He edited the monthly Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and was a featured blackjack columnist for Casino Player magazine, Midwest Gaming and Travel magazine, Gaming South magazine, Southern Gaming magazine, New England Gaming News, Jackpot, Bingo Bugle, and Casino City Times.

    He has appeared on numerous gaming shows on the Travel Channel and A&E network, and has been a guest on hundreds of radio shows. Tamburin is also a skilled blackjack tournament player, and an invited guest at the prestigious Blackjack Ball, an annual gathering of blackjack professionals.  He has taught thousands of players how to get the edge at blackjack in his seminars, card-counting classes, newspaper and magazine articles, and on his websites (smartgaming.com and bjinsider.com).

    Besides is prowess at blackjack, Tamburin is also a skilled video poker and craps player. His column on video poker playing strategies appeared monthly in Strictly Slots magazine, and he also authored these books: Ten Best Casino Bets; Craps: Take the Money and Run; Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling; and Winning Baccarat Strategies.    

    Henry Tamburin earned a Bachelor of Science and Ph.D. degrees in chemistry and worked as a production and technical manager for an International Chemical company for 27 years while pursuing his avocation as a part-time professional blackjack player. 
     

    Henry Tamburin Ph.D
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    High pairs, low pairs, any pairs are powerful - more powerful than many video poker players realize.

    It's not merely that after a draw, pairs can turn into three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind to boost your credit meter.

    High pairs - two Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces - are important in themselves, accounting for a major chunk of your overall payback in any game. They're the hands that keep you going, providing credits to recycle while you chase bigger pays.

    Many video poker playing readers have asked how much value there is in high pairs, given that they just get your money back. Some question whether they're really winning hands at all.

    Video Poker readers

    Here's and example, in an email that arrived earlier this year:

    "What's with the payoffs on pairs of Jacks or better? A five-credit win when I've bet five credits isn't really a win if you ask me. If I bet $5 at blackjack and win, I keep my $5 bet AND get $5 in winnings. On video poker, I just get the five credits back.

    "Shouldn't they have to pay you something more than your bet to call it a win?"

    That video poker question basically describes the difference between odds-to-1 and odds-for-1. If you're being paid odds-to-1, which is common in most table games, you keep your bet and get winnings on top of it. If you win a single-number bet in roulette, you're paid 35-to-1, so you if you wager $1 you get $35 in winnings and keep you $1 bet.

    Most machine games pay odds-for-1.  The machine takes and keeps your bet, then makes its payoff on winners. If the roulette example above paid 35-for-1, you'd be paid $35, but the house would keep your $1 bet.

    Video poker pays odds-for-1. If you bet $5 and draw a pair of Jacks, the machine keeps the $5 you wagered, then adds $5 back to your meter after the hand.

    Such payoffs are basically the same as pushes in blackjack, where if your hand ties the dealer's, you get your money back.

    In video poker, those pushes are an important part of the game. Let's illustrate the power of pairs, using 9-6 Jacks or Better as an example. Pairs of Jacks or better are by far the most frequent paying video poker hands, occurring on 4.66 percent of hands. They account for 21.46 of overall payback.

    The situation is similar in 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker, where high pairs come up on 4.73 percent of hands and account for 21.13 percent of total payback. In fact, in any non-wild card game where pays start at Jacks or better, the high pairs account for 20 percent or more of our return.

    What if the game paid 2-for-1 or as table games would pay it, even money -- on those high pairs? That would push the overall payback past 121 percent.

    No casino could keep a 121-percent game on its floor so the pay table would have to be drastically altered.

     

    Maybe paybacks could start with a pair of Kings instead of a pair of Jacks, but that would mean fewer paying hands and the game would become more volatile without. 

    Maybe chunks could be taken out of returns higher on the pay table, but that would reduce the big rewards and our incentive for playing video poker.

    You may or may not think of those 1-for-1 pays as "wins," but most of us wouldn't find video poker as playable without them. Each return of your bet on a 1-for-1 pay means credits for one extra hand to chase a bigger payoff.

    In that way, high pairs are powerful even if you don't improve the hand on your draw. But if you get a pair on an initial deal, you do have a chance to improve the hand. 

    Let's walk through what that means to your video poker strategy when dealt high pairs in 9-6 Jacks or Better and 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker.

    You'd never want to break up a higher paying hand for the sake of starting with a high pair. If you get four of a kind, a full house or three of a kind on the initial deal, thank your lucky stars and hold those winners before drawing. 

    In Jacks or Better, you can add two pairs to the list. The 2-for-1 payoff on two pairs makes it a more desirable start than discarding one pair to hold just a low pair.

    Double Double Bonus Poker brings a different challenge. Two pairs pay 1-for-1 -- the same as high pairs. You must decide whether to hold both pairs, giving you a one-card draw for a possible full house -- or whether to hold just one pair and open up more possibilities.

    The best play depends on the rank of the pairs.

    Imagine you're dealt Aces of clubs and hearts, 8s of diamonds and spades, and a 3 of spades.

    If you hold both pairs, there are 47 possible draws.  Four of them would complete full houses -- the other two Aces and the other two 8s. The other 43 draws would leave you with two pairs and that 1-for-1 return.

    That leaves the average return for holding both pairs at 8.40 coins for a five-coin bet.

    If you hold Ace-Ace and discard the other three cards instead, there are 16,215 possible draws. Of those, 11,520 leave you at a high pair and 2,629 bring a second pair, all with the same 1-for-1 return.

    However, 1,852 improve the hand to three of a kind (15-coin return for a five-coin bet), 169 bring full houses (45 for 5), 34 bring four Aces (800 for 5) and 11 bring the big 2,000-coin jackpot for four Aces with a 2, 3 or 4 as the fifth card.

     The average return on all that is 9.58 coins per five wagered. That means breaking up two pairs to draw to a powerful pair of Aces is a better play than holding two pairs.

    With lesser high pairs, the arithmetic is different. The payoff for four of a kind is 250 coins on four Jacks, Queens or Kings, rather than the 800 on four Aces, and there is no jackpot boost for having a low card as the fifth-card kicker.

    If you change the above hand so the high pair is Kings, Queens or Jacks instead of Aces, the average return when holding both pairs remains 8.40 coins, but the average when holding just the high pair drops to 7.24.

    That means Aces are more powerful than other pairs in Double Double Bonus, but all high pairs have the powers.

    Low pairs are more important than many players realize, too. They're not winners on their own, but they are building blocks to big hands up to four of a kind.

    You're better off holding a low pair than three or fewer unsuited high cards, two suited high cards, four parts of an outside straight with fewer than three high cards, or any inside straight draws. 

    They're not as powerful as high pairs, but then high pairs are very important to your chances of winning at video poker. Regardless whether high pairs lead to bigger things on the draw or merely replenish your credit meter to keep you going in your quest for big payers, they have a power many players don't realize.

    July 15, 2018

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski
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    The idea that past events can have an effect on future events is a common theme among some gamblers. If a roulette wheel has landed on black several times, then it has to hit red on the next spin or two, right?

    That’s what is known as the “Gambler’s Fallacy.” This is the idea that one event in the past affects another in the future. Also known as the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” the concept is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal over a certain period of time, then it will happen less frequently in the future.

    The same goes that if something happens less frequently than normal during a certain period of time, then it will happen more frequently in the future. The article expands on this idea of the Gambler’s Fallacy and offers insight on its consideration when gambling in a casino.

    Table of Contents

    The Gambler’s Fallacy – Applies to More Than Just Gambling

    While the Gambler's Fallacy can be applied to any activity or competition, it’s most often applied to gambling. In simple terms, the concept means something like “surely this outcome will stop at some point.”

    Sporting Events

    For example, this soccer team has beaten our club 12 straight times and surely we’ll get a win this time. Any sports fan knows this isn’t quite how things work.

    This feeling that nature will balance the scales eventually is a mistaken belief. Gamblers often think in these terms when at the blackjack or craps tables.

    In more mathematical terms, in situations with truly random events, one event doesn’t have an effect on any other events. An event is unaffected by past events as well and tends to follow this thinking:

    1. X occurs
    2. X departs from what’s expected on average or over the long term
    3. Therefore, X will come to an end soon

    A person is assuming that some result must be “due” simply because what has previously happened departs from what would be expected on average or over the long run.

    Coin Flips

    Here’s another example: one flip of a coin doesn’t affect the next toss of the same coin. Each toss obviously follows this pattern:

    • 50% chance of it landing on heads
    • 50% chance of it landing on tails

    Suppose someone flips a coin six times and gets heads each time. If he concludes that the next toss will be tails because that side of the coin “is due.” Of course, this line of thinking is the Gambler’s Fallacy.

    As noted above, previous tosses have no bearing on the outcome of the seventh coin flip. Simply put, all flips remain a 50/50 proposition no matter what’s happened previously.

    Reverse (Inverse) Gambler's Fallacy

    This concept seems simple once the Gambler’s Fallacy is understood. Simply put, this idea of the Inverse Gambling Fallacy is also false based on the belief that if something happened that it will continue occurring. For example:

    • Someone clips a coin five times.
    • Another person bets that the sixth flip will also be heads.
    • That person believes it will keep occurring because of past flips landing on heads.

    Each flip continues to be independent of every other flip. This feeling that the next flip will also be heads is based on flawed logic considering these flips remain random events.

    roulette

     
     

    Roots in Monte Carlo at the Roulette Wheel

    Monte Carlo is a global destination for gamblers. These elegant casinos offer a place to play for some of the world’s wealthiest gamblers.

    The Monte Carlo Casino offered one of the best-known examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy at work on August 18, 1913 – resulting in some big losses for quite a few roulette players.

    As the wheel continued spinning, the ball simply fell on black – over and over again. In fact, black came up 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence.

    Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black that night. Most reasoned incorrectly that the streak was causing an “imbalance” in the randomness of the wheel.

    “Red will surely come up on the next spin,” bettors had to be saying. That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy in a nutshell.

    Real-Life Examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy 

    Obviously, the belief that events become less random and more predictable is a fallacy. One event is completely independent of other events.

    Craps Table

    Craps can serve as another great example. On May 28, 1989, Stanley Fujitake grabbed the dice at a craps table at the California Casino downtown Las Vegas.

    A usual turn with the dice lasts only a few rolls before hitting a dreaded 7. But not that night at the Cal. Fujitake rolled 118 times, hitting fours, tens, sixes, eights, and every number imaginable except a 7.

    The casino paid out three-quarters of a millions dollars after more than three hours with the same dice. Common thinking may be that a seven would come at any moment because it was “due.” But each roll was independent of each other roll and Fujitake’s rolls just kept missing the 7.

    Lottery

    Another example are those dreamers who enjoy playing the lotto. Many players around the world have their own strategies. But studies have shown winning numbers often fall off in popularity after being drawn for a winner.

    Many may view that this number “has already won” and is less likely to come up again in a future drawing. This line of thinning, however, is the Gambler’s Fallacy at work.

    Just because that number was drawn last week doesn’t mean it won’t come up again this week. A past drawing is completely independent of another random drawing a week later.

    Sporting Event Coin Tosses

    Building on the earlier examples of coin tosses, sports teams often base their coin toss decisions on the Gambler's Fallacy. American football games determine the initial kickoff by a flip of the coin.

    One team may keep icking tails because it keeps winning for them, even inspiring the saying “tails never fails.” This is another example of the fallacy. Each toss is independent of each other and the toss remains a 50/50 proposition.

     

    The Gambler’s Fallacy in Pop Culture

    The concept of the Gambler’s Fallacy has been used in numerous works of literature, film, television, and other forms of pop culture through the years. Here’s a look at just a few.

    Literature

    In Edgar Allan Poe's “The Mystery of Marie Rogêt” explains the fallacy by noting:

    “Nothing, for example, is more difficult than to convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and which lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future.

    “The chance for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary time – that is to say, subject only to the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything like respectful attention.”

    Television

    Law and Order featured an entire episode called “The Gambler’s Fallacy” in 2014. The episode features Detective Amanda Rollins visiting underground gambling houses and coming up a loser.

    Comics

    Anyone who’s read the Peanuts comics or seen the cartoons knows Lucy always pulls the football away as Charlie Brown tries to kick the football. He inevitably takes a tumble when missing the ball.

    In one comic, Charlie Brown decides he’s going to pass on kicking the ball however. Lucy notes that the odds are one day she won’t jerk the ball away as he tries to kick.

    Lucy uses the Gambler’s Fallacy to continue Chuck to give it another try. What happened? He gives it a shot and of course, Lucy pulls the ball away. As he lay on the ground after yet another big fall, she tells him: “I’m sorry … this wasn’t the time!”

    Summary

    The Gambler’s Fallacy is the idea that when considering truly random events,  future events are determined by a past event. From rolling dice to spinning roulette wheels, random gaming occurrences aren’t affected by previous occurrences.

    The idea that something will change (or continue) based on previous results is the Gambler’s Fallacy. It’s important to remember.

    • All random events are independent of other events.
    • Basing decisions on previous dice rolls, roulette spins, or other random actions is flawed logic.
    • Many gamblers still fall prey to this concept.
    • Being aware of the Gambler’s Fallacy can help players be aware of real-world gaming events, odds, and actions.
    • The notion that a change in action is “due” is consistent with real-world randomness.
    October 24, 2017
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    On the morning of June 14, sports betting became officially legal in the state of New Jersey. It is only fitting, then, that the first person to place a bet that day was Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey. Proponents of legalized sports betting spent the last seven years fighting for New Jersey residents to gain the simple right to legally bet on games in their state. And now Murphy was about to do it. He wagered a mere $20 on Germany to win the World Cup and another 20 on, of course, the Jersey Devils hockey team to take next year’s Stanley Cup.

    He laid down his bet at Monmouth Park Racetrack, New Jersey’s first book to be operating.  But it will not be the last. It was soon followed by the launch of a makeshift sportsbook at Borgata, Atlantic City’s most famous casino and the one that comes closest to replicating a Las Vegas experience for its customers. Inside the Borgata’s facility that previously catered exclusively to horse bettors (a brand new Vegas-worthy sports book, budgeted at $7 million, should be open in time for the football season), former NBA star Julius “Dr. J” Erving placed the debut bet at Borgata. He gambled a measly $5 on reigning Super Bowl champs the Philadelphia Eagles winning it again in 2019. 

    The sums of money may have been small. But, in the big scheme of things, those bets were huge. They not only heralded the opening of sports betting in New Jersey but also signaled opportunities for the popular form of gambling to be legalized across all of America. As the revision of the law reads, each individual state can decide on whether or not it wants to have sports betting. Underscoring it all, as this story goes to press, Rhode Island became the third state, after New Jersey and Delaware, to greenlight betting on sports.

    By the time you read this, AC’s two newest casinos (the first to open there in years, both debuted in June), Ocean Resort and the Hard Rock, will be up and running with sportsbooks of their own. There is little doubt that just about every casino and race-track in New Jersey will soon offer odds and take action on sporting events. “We led the fight for sports betting and it’s now happening,” New Jersey State Senate President Steve Sweeney crowed in a statement. “We intend to see that New Jersey continues to be a leader with a sports gaming industry that thrives. Our efforts will pay off.”

    Sports fans rank among the big winners in all of this.  After all, if you love sports, few things are more enjoyable than spending a Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas with a skein of wagers, large or small, spread across the day’s roster of games. Surely aware of this, management at the casinos and race tracks of New Jersey will eventually provide top-flight experiences, complete with giant screen TVs, food, and drink at the ready, and efficiently managed betting windows. 

    The Vegas correlation promises to be most evident when sporting events are the largest. “During the NCAA tournament and Super Bowl week, you can’t get a room in Las Vegas and Atlantic City is a ghost town,” stated Ray Lesniak. “That changes with sports betting.”

    It is estimated that sports betting will generate $100- to $200-million for the New Jersey gambling industry. It also has the potential to be a boon for people who earn their livings betting on sports. “If the lines in New Jersey are different from those elsewhere, it can be a good thing,” says Bill “Krackman” Krackomberger, a professional gambler who grew up near Atlantic City but is currently based in Las Vegas. “I’m looking forward to spending the summer down there and placing lots of sports bets.”

    While the new law promises to provide Krackman with an easier life, there was nothing easy about enacting it. The progression to legalization began in 2012. That was when Lesniak officially raised the issue of allowing individual states to legalize sports wagering, within their borders, for the first time. 

    What made the legislation challenging is the fact that it was not simply a matter of New Jersey wanting to legalize sports betting, but it meant that the state would actually have to overturn a federal law. That law, known as PASPA (Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act), prohibited states from deciding on whether or not they can legalize sports wagering. 

    Lesniak and his crew brought their fight before US courts on nine occasions and were shot down every time except for the last one. "All along, no one gave me a chance," Lesniak has stated. "All these great legal minds [said,] 'Lesniak has no idea what he's talking about. There's no way this is going to happen.' That's why I feel just a little bit of self-satisfaction."

    The fact that Lesniak and company were going up against the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NCAA and the NBA – which all expressed fears that the spread of legalized betting could compromise the legitimate outcomes of their games – did not make things easier. Over the course of the battle, though, the NBA came around with commissioner Adam Silver acknowledging as much via a statement from the league’s attorney Dan Spillane. He told ESPN in 2016, “Our conclusion is that the time has come for an approach that gives sports fans a safe and legal way to wager on sporting events while protecting the integrity of the underlying competitions.”

    At least the NBA’s honchos got the point that for most Americans having a little action on the outcome of a game is half the appeal of actually watching said game. Indeed, according to a study done by the television research company Neilson Sports, sports bettors comprise 25 percent of the NFL’s television audience. But the gamblers watch games with more intensity than folks who have nothing riding on the outcomes. They accounted for 47 percent of all minutes viewed. 

    More people betting on the games that they watch should have a serious payoff for leagues, broadcasters, and advertiser. “Hands down, it’s a huge deal,” sports economist Brad Humphries told the New York Times. “How huge it depends on how quickly states move and how many states move to legalize sports betting.”

    Though the United States has a long history of being surprisingly prudish when it comes to gambling – until 1976, Nevada was the only state in America where casino gambling was legal – there are currently 40 states with some form of legal casino gambling. It is expected that most of them will want in on the sports-betting action. In this subject, recently SI Casino was launched in Michigan

    Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York, and Mississippi seem poised to be the next states to crank outlines and take action. All four have state laws that enable sports betting. It is estimated that 32 states will have legal sports betting within the next five years.

    As that happens, the sports leagues, which once vehemently opposed sports betting, will be lining up for their tastes of the action.  They are angling for a type of payout known as an “integrity fee.” The term was supposedly coined by the NBA and Adam Silver is behind it big time. He believes that his league – and presumably others – are entitled to a cut of sports-betting revenues because they will need to spend money on supervising players and making sure no cheating goes on. Additionally, he said, “We also think we are due [to] a royalty.” As his thinking goes, “To the extent that that [a sports league’s] product is used for casinos [and] betting parlors to make money on, we feel … we should receive some sort of royalty.”

    Wherever those payouts come to pass – Nevada has long refused to pony up the so-called “integrity fees” – money comes from the casino which, if history is any indication, will ultimately be derived from customers. Whatever the windup happens to be, though, right now gamblers themselves are not sweating the complication 

    That attitude is epitomized by an avid bettor who drove down to Atlantic City from neighboring New York. He wanted to be there for opening day of sports wagering at the Borgata. “I felt the fever!” he enthused to covers.com. Adding that he can hardly wait for his home-state to open the legal-gambling floodgates, the man said, “New York needs to get its act together.”

    The sentiment is becoming increasingly common among sports lovers who are eager to legally lay down their wagers in a country with the potential to revolutionize the sports betting industry.

     

     

    June 28, 2018
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    Blackjack is popular worldwide, and in the United States has ranked as the No. 1 casino table game for more than 50 years. It's also had the reputation as a low house edge game that gives players a great shot to win. That reputation has been eroding in recent years as casinos have adopted rules that increase the house edge. 

    Toughest of these is having blackjacks pay only 6 to 5 instead of 3 to 2. That raises the house edge against a blackjack basic strategy player by about 1.4 percent, and that's more than the entire edge on the rest of the game.

    In a six-deck game in which the dealer hits soft 17, blackjacks pay 3-2, you can split any pair except Aces up to three times, split Aces only once, and can double down on any first two cards including after splits, the house edge against a blackjack strategy player is 0.62 percent.

    Change just one rule and have blackjacks pay 6-5 instead, and the house edge soars to 1.97 percent.

    What the house permits double downs only on two-card totals of 10 or 11, as some casinos do? Then the house edge of 0.82 percent if blackjacks pay 3-2 rises to 2.18 percent with 6-5 blackjack pays.

    At that level, there are a number of casino games that give players at least as good a shot to win.

    Let's explore a few options among commonly available games.

    CRAPS

    Not every craps wager is as favorable as 6-5 blackjack, but the best bets are worth a long look.

    While playing craps, pass and come have house edges of 1.41 percent, and don't pass and don't come have edges of 1.36 percent. Right from the start, that gives you the chance of betting either with or against the craps shooter while getting a better deal than 6-5 blackjack gives you.

    Craps table

    If you're sufficiently bankrolled, you can take advantage of free odds and reduce the house edge to less than 1 percent. 

    After the shooter establishes a point number, pass or come bettors can back their bet with an additional wager that is paid at true odds. If that additional bet is equal to their original bet, the house edge on a pass¬-and-odds or come-and-odds combination drops to 0.8 percent. If the casino allows the odds wager to be multiple times the pass or come bet, the house edge drops more.

    The same goes for don't pass or don't come bettors. They can lay the odds, spotting the house the true odds of the shooter making his point. Laying the odds reduces the house edge on the don't pass-lay odds or don't come-lay odds combos to 0.7 percent or less, depending on the size of the lay odds wagers.

    A word of caution: free odds and lay odds have no house edge, but they do involve risking extra money. If you're a $5 blackjack player and move to a $5 craps table, you can bet on pass for $5. However, adding an odds bet means at least another $5 wager. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose, even if it means settling for a somewhat higher house edge.

    Place bets on 6 and 8 also give you a better deal than 6-5 blackjack, and there are no extra odds bets to consider.

    If you place 8, you're betting the shooter will roll an 8 before he rolls the next 7. Place bets on 6 work the same way -- you're rooting for the shooter to roll 6 before 7.

    If you win, you're paid at 7-6 odds, so you always want to bet in multiples of $6. The house edge of 1.52 percent is better than you'll find at 6-5 blackjack tables.

    There's an opposite to place bets called lay bets, where you're betting the shooter will roll a 7 before your designated number. The commission usually is the amount you would win if the shooter rolls a 7.

    There are casinos that charge the commission on all lay bets made, while others charge only on winning bets.

    It's worth checking out. If the commission is charged only on winners, then house edges are 1.67 percent if you lay 4 or 10, 2 percent on 5 or 9, or 2.27 percent on 6 or 8. That edge on 4 or 10 is better than 6-5 blackjack, and the others are in the range of maybes, depending on other blackjack house rules.

    BACCARAT

    You don't need to know any baccarat strategies. You don't even need to know much about the game, other than to stay away from betting on ties. But baccarat's two main options both have lower house edges than 6-5 blackjack.

    Baccarat table

    Two hands are dealt, one called the "banker" hand and the other the "player" hand. You may bet on either hand, and so may any other players at the table. Hands are played out according to a set strategy. You have no decisions to make.

    House edges are 1.06 percent on banker and 1.24 percent on player, making baccarat not only a better bet than 6-5 blackjack, but the best no strategy, no extra bet play around.

    VIDEO POKER

    Games and pay tables are highly variable, and you do have to learn optimal strategies to get the most out of video poker. But the best games have house edges among the lowest in casinos.

    It's even possible for players to claim an edge in some rare games. The 10-7-5 version of Double Bonus Poker returns 100.17 percent with expert play. That's the same as saying a 0.17 percent player edge.

    In non-wild card games, players usually differentiate them by looking at payoffs for full houses and flushes, along with straights in the case of Double Bonus Poker. The "10-7-5" in the Double Bonus game above pays 10-for-1 on full houses, 7-for-1 on flushes and 5-for-1 on straights. In 9-6-4 Double Bonus, full houses pay 9-for-1, flushes 6-for-1 and straights 4-for-1.

    Those payoffs give us a basis for comparing games. Each 1-unit difference in a full house or flush payoff adds or subtracts just over 1 percent in overall return.

    Let's make a list of commonly available games with a payback percentage of 99 percent or greater -- 1 percent house edge -- and another of 98 percent or greater -- 2 percent house edge. 

    Any of these may be worth considering instead of 6-5 blackjack. However, understand that video poker players play much faster than blackjack players. A full blackjack table might move at between 50 and 60 hands per hour, while it's easy to play 700 to 800 hands of video poker per hour. Calculate your casino bankroll and risk accordingly.

    99-PERCENT-PLUS: "Not so ugly" Deuces Wild (99.7 percent with expert play), 9-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.6), 9-6 Jacks or Better (99.5 percent); 8-5 Bonus Poker (99.2), 9-7-5 Double Bonus Poker (99.1)

    98 PERCENT-PLUS: 9-6 Double Double Bonus Poker (99.0), 8-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (98.5), 9-5 Jacks or Better (98.5); 7-5 Bonus Poker (98.1).

    The 9-6 version of Double Double Bonus was listed under 98-plus because its 99.0 is actually a rounding from 98.98 percent.

    There are other qualifying games, including high-paying versions of Super Double Bonus Poker, White Hot Aces, One-Eyed Jacks and others. But this list will give you an idea of what to seek in the most commonly available games.

    THREE CARD POKER AND MISSISSIPPI STUD POKER

    Relatively new, poker-based games usually start with an ante, then have additional rounds of betting after you've seen cards.

    In such games, the house edge is evaluated in two ways: as a percentage of the ante and as a percentage of total bets, assuming you follow optimal strategy for the later wagers.

    In Three Card Poker's ante-play option in which your hand must beat the dealer, the house edge is 3.37 percent of the ante or 2.01 percent of the total action.

    The situation is similar in Mississippi Stud, where the house edge is 4.91 percent of your ante or 1.37 percent of the total action.

    If you make a $5 ante in Three Card Poker, your average total wager with optimal play will be about $8.40, and your average loss will be about the same as someone who bets $8.40 per hand in blackjack. 

    If you ante $5 in Mississippi Stud, your average total wager with optimal play will be about $17.95, and your average loss will be less than that for someone who bets $17.95 at 6-5 blackjack.

    That makes both Three Card Poker and Mississippi Stud viable options to 6-5 blackjack. So are the best bets at craps, baccarat and certain video poker games. 

    The choice is yours, but you don't have to settle for a substandard game if a casino pays only 6-5 on blackjacks.

    June 28, 2018

    By John Grochowski

    John Grochowski
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    For nearly 25 years, John Grochowski has been one of the most prolific gaming writers in the United States. He’s been ranked ninth by GamblingSites among the top 11 gambling experts at Gambling Sites and his Video Poker Answer Book was ranked eighth among the best gambling books of all time.

    He started a weekly casinos column in the Chicago Sun-Times at the beginning of 1994 and He soon found himself in demand by a wide range of publications. He has written for casino industry professionals in Casino Executive and Casino Journal magazines, and for players in Casino Player, Strictly Slots and many other magazines.

    John’s twice-weekly columns appear in Casino City Times, Atlantic City Weekly and several websites. He has written six books on casino games, including the “Casino Answer Book” series. And, of course, John is a regular at 888casino Blog.

    Today John’s work includes a weekly column on baseball metrics for the Sun-Times. He lives in the Chicago area with Marcy, his wife of 30 years.

    John Grochowski