As his name would imply, Richard Munchkin started small. As his high-flying status among professional gamblers confirms, however, he did not remain that way. In fact, he ranks among the most astute, most successful advantage players in the business. 

Years ago, I had a chat with Stanford Wong, an icon of advantage playing who turned to book publishing after he got too hot to make a serious go of it in the casinos. I was unschooled on the ins and outs of the high-stakes world and felt compelled to get a handle on Munchkin. I asked Wong what he thought Munchkin’s strong suit was. “Richard Munchkin’s strong suit is anything he wants it to be,” Wong told me. “Munchkin can do whatever he wants and be successful at it.”

FROM BACKGAMMON TO BEATING BLACKJACK

For the big-time gambler with the diminutive sounding alias, it began when he was attending university in the United States during the 1970s. “I played backgammon and poker, making maybe $100 or $200 a week,” he tells me, standing in the living room of the home he recently purchased in Las Vegas. “I was playing backgammon with a dentist in a bar and he told me that he had a way of beating blackjack. He explained card counting to me and I thought it made sense.”

For his 21st birthday, Munchkin bought himself a trip to Las Vegas. He knew basic strategy perfectly, applied it to blackjack games at casinos on the Strip and won a couple hundred dollars. Then he taught himself to card count, moved to Vegas and got a job as a dealer. The idea, ultimately, was to win money at blackjack and poker so he could finance a trip to Los Angeles, have a bit of a bankroll there and pursue his real passion: acting.

DISCOVERING HOLE CARDING

Munchkin eventually made it to LA, but, by then, gambling was too lucrative to forsake for acting. His big break as a casino player came when he met Alan Woods. Now deceased, Woods was a world-class blackjack master who went on to become one of the planet’s most successful gamblers by using computer models to crush horse racing betting. Woods wound up providing financing for Munchkin and partnered with him at blackjack. “We played for three months and I could not win,” Munchkin remembers. “I got buried but discovered that I was doing nothing wrong. I was just running badly.”

Things improved dramatically when Woods recruited Munchkin to shuffle track with a team of five others. An advantage play invented in the late 1970s, it involves observing shuffles and predicting where certain cards in the new deck will be. Munchkin was taught the then-groundbreaking maneuver from a gifted bridge player of his acquaintance. Hole-carding – spotting the bottom cards of sloppy dealers – was enjoying a heyday as well. Munchkin took advantage of it. “There were so many games where you could just sit at first base and catch the dealer’s cards,” he says. “I would get barred on day shift and go right back on swing shift. Being out there and taking down casinos is part of the fun. I made enough money that I didn’t have to deal. I realized that it’s nice to not need a day job.”

"EVERY SINGLE GAME IN THE CASINO CAN BE BEATEN"

Astute, adventurous and creative, Munchkin also learned that successful gambling does not begin and end with blackjack. “I believe that every single game in the casino can be beaten,” he says. “I have played winning games at almost everything.” And he is not even including the ever popular rebate gambits – in which advantage players find situations where casinos give back more money, in the form of rebates on loss, than gamblers necessarily will lose. “I don’t think that rebate plays count as beating the game. They count as beating the rebates.”

Surely, though, Munchkin does not view slots as being beatable. Or does he? “With slot machines, to beat them, you focus on the progressives,” he says, referring to machines that must pay off when a certain amount of money builds up in the jackpot. “If the machine has to hit by $30,000 and it is at $28,000, then it might be a play. A sign tells you [if there is a point at which it must pay] and there are teams that do nothing but beat slot machines. They check the machines as if they are on a route.”

As we talk, Munchkin underscores his point by beating horse racing. He makes wagers based on information coming in from a knowledgeable source. Then he smiles and says, “I just found out that a sports book will take more racing bets than I thought.”

He places a few more wagers, then resumes his discussion on the soft spots to be found in casinos. “I know people who have beaten craps, roulette, the Big Six wheel,” he says, recognizing that I find the last of these gambling opportunities to be a little far fetched. “It’s the old dealer’s signature. You find live roulette dealers who spin the wheel consistently. At the Sahara [now defunct; SLS Las Vegas stands in its place], they had a promotion where you could spin the wheel yourself. People figured out how to make it land on the 50-to-1 spot. They kept spinning onto that until they got kicked out.”

Just knowing one card in the deck and how to get it to a blackjack dealer is massive – drive a 5 his way and every hand on the table is playing at a 23-percent advantage – but for Munchkin, and others of his ilk, it goes way beyond that: “You can win at craps by controlling a single die; it’s not easy to learn but there are guys who do it. You beat roulette by watching the speed of the wheel and being able to predict where the ball will drop. It’s a learned skill – and you won’t pick it up in your basement over the course of a week.”

REGRETS FOR NOT USING EDGE SORTING

One play Munchkin did not do – and he seemingly finds it impossible to keep from envying – is the baccarat maneuver pulled off by Kelly Sun and Phil Ivey. It was a famous edge sorting play in which they manipulated dealers into turning cards so that Sun would be able to recognize them from the manner in which their patterns on back were trimmed. “If you want to win a lot of money from a casino, you have to play the major games,” says Munchkin. “If you want to win a real lot of money, you play baccarat. People routinely bet massive sums and the casinos don’t sweat the action because they think there is no way to beat it.”

He hesitates for a second and adds, “Kelly is f*****g brilliant. She made millions and millions of dollars with that edge sorting play.”

As for everyone else who wants to make serious money in casinos, Munchkin advises that you do not think like a card counter. “Card counters have tunnel vision,” says Munchkin. “They walk to a blackjack table, measure the card counting possibilities and ignore everything else. Me, I walk into a casino and I see opportunity everywhere.”

 

Updated on March 18, 2025

In the world of casino table games, Ultimate Texas Hold'em (UTH) stands out as one of the most popular poker variants. While games like roulette and blackjack have long dominated the casino floor, UTH has carved out its own dedicated following. This article explores the optimal Ultimate Texas Hold'em strategy and analyzes the Ultimate Texas Holdem house edge to help you make informed decisions at the table.

The Basics of Ultimate Texas Hold'em

Ultimate Texas Hold'em shares similarities with traditional poker but includes unique betting structures that affect strategy. Unlike the unpredictable spin of a roulette wheel, UTH combines skill and probability in a way that rewards strategic thinking. Before diving into advanced concepts, let's review the basic rules:

1. The player makes equal bets on the Ante and Blind.
2. Five community cards are dealt face down.
3. Each player and the dealer receive two face-down cards.
4. Players then choose to either check OR make a Play bet of 3x or 4x their Ante.
5. The dealer reveals the first three community cards (the "Flop").
6. Players who checked previously can either check again OR make a Play bet of 2x their Ante.
7. The dealer reveals the final two community cards (the "Turn/River").
8. Players who haven't made a Play bet can either fold OR make a Play bet equal to their Ante.
9. The dealer reveals their cards and announces their best five-card hand.
10. The dealer needs a pair or better to "qualify."

Now what? Well, either the dealer qualifies or they don't. The player beats, ties or loses to the dealer. Either the player's hand is good enough to qualify for a "Blind" bonus payout, or it isn't. The following table hopefully clarifies all of these possibilities and shows the payouts in every case:

The Blind bet pays according to hand strength when the player wins, with payouts ranging from 1:1 for a Straight to 500:1 for a Royal Flush. The complete pay table for the Blind bet is:

• Royal Flush: 500-to-1
• Straight Flush: 50-to-1
• Four of a Kind: 10-to-1
• Full House: 3-to-1
• Flush: 3-to-2
• Straight: 1-to-1
• All other hands: Push

These payouts form a crucial component of the game's overall house edge and significantly impact Ultimate Texas Hold em strategy decisions.

Ultimate Texas Hold'em Strategy

Ultimate Texas Hold'em is one of the most popular novelty games in the market. For that reason, it is important to understand the multitude of ways that UTH may be vulnerable to advantage play. Many of my recent posts have concerned some of these possibilities. But the computations are tedious. It took my computer 5 days to run the cycle where the AP sees one dealer hole card (see this post). Then my computer spent 8 days analyzing the situation where the AP sees one dealer hole card and one Flop card (see this post). After that, my computer crunched hands for just over 2 days, considering computer-perfect collusion with six players at the table (see this post). After all of this time spent on more advanced plays, I decided to take a step back to compute the ultimate texas holdem house edge off the top, using perfect basic strategy and no advantage play. It took my computer three days to run the pre-flop cycle and another two days to run the Flop cycle. Finally, I have some basic ultimate texas hold'em strategy data to present.

After extensive combinatorial analysis of all 169 unique starting hands, evaluating both the edge for checking and raising 4x, I've reached several key conclusions. The analysis accounted for hand equivalence through suit permutations. For example, because the starting hand (2♣7♦) is equivalent to (2♥7♠), only one representative configuration needed to be analyzed.

In particular:

• The house edge for UTH is 2.18%.

• Players should check pre-flop on 62.29% of the hands.

• Players should raise 4x pre-flop on 37.71% of the hands.

• Players have a pre-flop edge over the house on 35.29% of the hands.

• The player should never raise 3x pre-Flop.

Ultimate Holdem Strategy: Pre-Flop Decisions

Developing a solid ultimate texas hold em strategy begins with pre-flop decisions. Based on comprehensive analysis, here's the optimal approach:

When to Raise 4x Pre-Flop:

• Any pair of 3's or higher
• A2 through AK (suited or unsuited)
• K5 through KQ (suited or unsuited)
• Q8 through QJ (suited or unsuited)
• JT (suited or unsuited)
• Suited K2, K3, K4
• Suited Q6, Q7
• Suited J8, J9

For all other starting hands, the correct play is to check. Note that raising 3x pre-flop is never the optimal choice, despite being an option in the game.

Ultimate Holdem Strategy: Flop Decisions

A Flop decision to check or raise 2x is only possible if the player checked pre-flop. By reference to the pre-flop strategy above, it turns out there are exactly 100 equivalence classes of starting hands where the player checked pre-flop. I re-ran my UTH basic strategy program to consider each of these 100 hands and each possible flop that can appear with that starting hand. For each starting hand where the player checked pre-flop, there are combin(50,3) = 19,600 Flops to consider. Thus, altogether, I had to evaluate the Flop decision to check or raise 2x for 100 x 19,600 = 1,960,000 situations. Shackleford's simplified approach to flop decisions sacrifices minimal expected value (typically less than 0.4%) while drastically reducing the cognitive burden on players. This practical approach to ultimate holdem strategy represents an excellent balance between optimality and usability.

When to Raise 2x on the Flop:

• Two pair or better
• Any hidden pair (except pocket 2's)
• Four to a flush with a kicker of Ten or higher

While this simplified strategy isn't perfect (it misses some subtle opportunities), the difference in expected value is minimal. For example, with (8♣J♦) against a flop of (2♣3♣Q♣), the optimal play is to raise 2x despite having only four to a flush with an 8 kicker. This likely stems from the combined possibilities of runner-runner straight draws, flush draws, and pairing possibilities. However, checking in this situation costs only 0.377% in expected value – a small price for strategic simplicity.

Ultimate Holdem Strategy: Turn/River Decisions

The final decision point comes after seeing all five community cards. At this stage, you must decide whether to fold (surrendering your Ante and Blind bets) or make a Play bet equal to your Ante.

One can certainly use Shackleford's very easy Turn/River strategy for that final decision:

• Raise 1x when you have a hidden pair; or
• Raise 1x when there are fewer than 21 dealer outs that can beat your hand
• Otherwise, fold

This derives from the mathematics of expected value. When you fold, your EV is -2 (losing your Ante and Blind). When you raise and face N potential dealer "outs," your expected value equals 1-4p, where p is the probability the dealer beats you. For raising to be correct, this value must exceed -2, which occurs when the dealer has 20 or fewer outs to beat your hand.

Mathematical Derivation of the "20 Outs" Rule

My complete method here, were I to do it, would be to post spreadsheets containing computer-perfect play so that the reader could devise his own turn/river strategy. Of the 1,960,000 flop possibilities mentioned above, exactly 1,273,842 of them correspond to the player checking on the flop. Each of these checking possibilities yields an additional combin(47,2) = 1,081 Turn/River hands to complete the board, where the player has to then choose to either fold or raise 1x on each. That is, the complete spreadsheet analysis of the Turn/River decision would mean posting a total of 1,960,000 x 1,081 = 1,377,023,202 hands for the reader to consider.

Yeah, well ... at any rate, for the curious, here is my derivation of Shackleford's result concerning playing hands with 20 or fewer dealer outs.

When you fold, your expected value is clearly -2 units (losing both Ante and Blind).

If N represents the number of dealer outs that can beat your hand, the probability of the dealer's first card being an out is p₁ = N/45. For the dealer's second card, if their first card missed, they typically have approximately 3 additional "pair outs" plus potential runner-runner outs. This gives a second-card probability of approximately p₂ = (N+4)/44.

The overall probability of the dealer beating you becomes: p = N/45 + [(45-N)/45] × [(N+4)/44]

Simplifying this equation: p = (-N² + 85N + 180)/(45×44)

Note that if the dealer doesn't hit an out, then he won't qualify. It follows that the EV for the player who raises 1x on the Turn/River bet is:

EV = p*(-3) + (1-p)*(1) = 1 - 4p.

We make the raise whenever EV > -2. That is, 1 - 4p > -2. Solving for p gives

p

That is, the player raises 1x when his chance of beating the dealer is 25% or higher.

Substituting our expression for p and solving the resulting quadratic equation: N² - 85N + 1305 > 0

This yields roots of approximately 64.9 and 20.1. Since the number of outs must be positive and must satisfy the inequality, the solution is N ≤ 20.

This mathematical foundation gives us the practical "fewer than 21 dealer outs" rule for Turn/River decisions in ultimate texas hold em strategy.

Understanding the Ultimate Texas Holdem House Edge

After extensive computational analysis, we can quantify the house edge for Ultimate Texas Hold'em:

• Computer-perfect strategy: 2.18497%
• Shackleford's practical strategy: approximately 2.43%
• Grosjean's strategy (from Exhibit CAA): 2.35%

This house edge is quite favorable compared to many casino games. For comparison, American roulette odds heavily favor the house with a 5.26% edge due to the double zero on the roulette wheel. Even single-zero European roulette maintains a 2.7% house advantage.

The moderate house edge makes Ultimate Texas Hold'em attractive to strategic players. While not as favorable as blackjack strategy with its potential sub-1% house edge (under optimal rules), UTH offers better odds than most other poker-based table games and nearly all blackjack side bets.

Ultimate Texas Hold em Strategy - Final Thoughts

Ultimate Texas Hold'em rewards strategic play while offering a reasonable 2.18-2.43% house edge when using optimal ultimate texas hold'em strategy. While perfect play requires complex calculations, simplified approaches like Shackleford's provide excellent results for practical use. By applying the strategies outlined above, you'll minimize the ultimate texas holdem house edge and improve your chances at the tables.

Remember to play responsibly and enjoy the strategic depth UTH offers compared to many other casino games.

Originally published on June 1, 2015

Poker icon Phil Ivey ranks among the world’s most famous gamblers. He is known for winning millions of dollars at Texas hold’em, Omaha, 7 card stud, and any other poker variation you can think of. So when he appeared on the US TV newsmagazine show 60 Minutes and talked about “exploiting weaknesses of the house and giving myself the best advantage to win” at min-baccarat, it was easy to believe. Ivey, after all, is unaccustomed to losing.

And he didn’t. In less than a year, Phil Ivey won in excess of $20-million playing mini-baccarat. That’s fairly well known. Less known is that he did not win the money alone. Ivey had a lot of help in landing his windfall. It came about via a Chinese collaborator by the name of Cheung Yin “Kelly” Sun.

FROM VEGAS JAIL TO BEATING BACCARAT

She figured out how to beat baccarat and recruited Ivey, who has a reputation for gambling high in casinos, to be her big player, the one who does the actual betting, However, her quest to beat the game began long before she hooked up with Ivey. Sun, who comes from a wealthy family in Northern China, had long been an incredible casino sucker. She’s dropped millions of dollars at gambling dens around the world. Their hosts and managers had long welcomed her with lavish suites, limo rides from the airport and even high-value shopping cards.

In the midst of a gambling binge at MGM Grand, she signed a $100,000 casino-marker for a friend and reminded the friend that it needed to be paid off. After all, unpaid markers in Las Vegas get treated like bad checks. Anybody who fails to make good on one has committed a crime.

When Kelly’s friend did not pay off the marker, Kelly wound up getting arrested and thrown into a downtown Las Vegas jail. “Women attacked me and the guards wouldn’t let me wear my own underwear,” she tells me. “I lost 25 pounds in jail and didn’t get out until relatives flew here with $100,000 for the casino. I decided that one day I would get back the money by playing at MGM properties.”

Some inmates emerge from even short stints behind bars as hardened criminals. Kelly came out with a desire to brutally beat baccarat. Soon after her release, back in the casino, she learned about edge sorting: Identifying cards with patterns on the back that are unevenly cut. Using that completely legal technique, she trained her eyes to recognize certain groups of cards that are advantageous to players. After making more than $1-million pulling off the play with a variety of Chinese high-rollers, Kelly found the ultimate big-betting partner: Phil Ivey.

30 for 30 Podcast with Michael Kaplan, Eliot Jacobson & Cheung Yin "Kelly" Sun:

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS WITH EDGE SORTING

He deposited the money, did the wagering, requested the right conditions (a Chinese speaking dealer, specific brands of playing cards that tended to have uneven patterns on their backs, and a shuffling machine that would not spin the cards) and kept the casino at ease. Kelly did the heavy lifting. She requested that dealers turn certain cards “for good luck” so that the key cards would be recognizable (6s, 7s, 8s, and 9s all had short edges facing the dealer). Kelly read the cards and told Ivey which way to bet.

But it did not start out so well. Kelly first hooked up with Ivey in Melbourne, Australia, where he had won some $6-million at poker. On the first baccarat play they did together, Ivey promptly dropped $500,000. He was not happy. The problem, Kelly explained, was that she had never before used the cards employed at the Melbourne casino. She was unfamiliar with the patterns on their backs. Grudging, Ivey agreed to put up more money in an effort to recoup what he had lost. Kelly studied the card-backs overnight.



The next day, she says, “In one hour we won the money back plus $3-million. The casino cashed Phil’s chips and asked how he knew me. Somebody from the casino told him that I was internationally famous [for doing the baccarat play]. Phil told them that I had just come into the poker room and that I wanted to play baccarat.”

In short order, Ivey became a believer. Kelly and Ivey hit the road and ravaged casinos. They played Montreal, Singapore, Macau, Monte Carlo. She wore elegantly cut designer-clothing in overseas high-limit rooms, reprising the role of the globe-trotting action-lover she had once been. Ivey brought along his personal trainer.

They established a casino-hustling routine. After arriving at a gambling spot, Kelly says, “We’d spend the first day relaxing, then we’d go to the nightclub, followed by two or three days playing in the casino. One day we lost $3 million. Phil was not upset then. We went back and won $5 million the next night.”

THE END OF KELLY'S ADVANTAGE PLAY

Stung casinos called Kelly the “Queen of Sorts.” Ivey had another nickname for her: “Baccarat Machine.”

Kelly’s 36th birthday in 2012 was a typically raucous, over-the-top affair, precisely the sort of thing that befits high rollers. “We went to XS at Wynn,” Kelly remembers. “Phil had girls all around him. I got so drunk that I checked into a suite at Wynn instead of going home.

“The next morning Phil called and I did not answer the phone. A friend came up and started kicking the door. He said, ‘Let’s go, let’s go, the private jet is waiting. We’re going to Borgata [the top casino in Atlantic City] to win money.’ I had no clothing or makeup or luggage. I had to buy all new stuff at Borgata. Phil did not want me eating or sleeping. He only wanted me to be playing. That’s why I was called Baccarat Machine. One time we played 24 hours. Phil slept on the floor [of the high-limit room].”

They crushed casinos around the world. Kelly won’t say precisely how much they won, but she leaves a strong impression that it exceeded $30-million. They would have won even more if not for an incident at Crockfords in London. There, they got a little lucky and quickly won the US equivalent of $12-million; Crockfords did not like that and ultimately refused to pay, maintaining that Ivey and Kelly played in an improper manner.

Kelly and Ivey sued for their money and generated the kind of publicity that makes other casinos take notice. One casino was Atlantic City’s Borgata, which the casino-fleecing team relieved of some $10-million. Kelly remembers that making a big deal over Crockfords no-pay decision went against her better judgment. “I figured we could always win another $12-million,” she says with a shrug. She claims to have realized then that widespread publicity could shut down their advantage play.

She was right. The edge-sorting gambit is all but over and Borgata wants its money back. Yet Kelly seems to take it in stride and she remains blasé about her new-found fame. “I never thought about being famous,” Kelly says. “I am very quiet. I don’t say anything. I just want to beat casinos.”

Updated on May 12, 2025

What Is a Soft 18 in Blackjack?

One of the hands that blackjack players often misplay is soft 18, especially when facing a dealer's 10 upcard (soft 18 vs 10). This is a hand that totals 18 and contains an ace counted as 11. Examples of soft 18 hands are: A-7 or A-3-4.

The reason these hands are classified as "soft" 18 is because the strategy for playing them is different from a hand that totals 18 and either doesn't contain an Ace (e.g., 10-8), or if an Ace is present, it's counted as 1 (e.g., 5-9-A-3). These latter examples are known as "hard" 18 hands.

A soft 18 gives you flexibility that a hard 18 doesn't provide. Since the Ace can be counted as either 1 or 11, you can hit a soft 18 without risking a bust. This versatility is what makes the strategy for playing soft 18 unique and often misunderstood by casual players.

Playing Options for Soft 18 in Blackjack

When you are dealt a soft 18, you have three playing options:

• Double Down
• Hit
• Stand

Which option is best depends on three critical variables:

• Whether the soft 18 hand is composed of two or more cards
• The number of decks of cards you are playing against
• Whether the rules specify the dealer must hit their soft 17 (h17) or stand (s17)

Optimal Soft 18 Strategy for Multi-Deck Games

Double and Multi-Deck Games with S17 Rules

In double- and multi-deck games where the dealer stands on soft 17 (s17):

• If dealer shows a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you should double down
• If the dealer shows a 2, 7, or 8, you should stand
• If dealer shows a 9, 10, or Ace, you should hit (with one exception we'll cover later)

Double and Multi-Deck Games with H17 Rules

If the rules specify that the dealer must hit soft 17 (h17), follow the same strategy as above, but with one key difference:

• You should also double down against a dealer's upcard of 2

Soft 18 Strategy for Single-Deck Blackjack

Single-Deck Games with S17 Rules

In single-deck games, where the dealer stands on soft 17 (s17):

• If dealer shows a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you should double down
• If the dealer shows 2, 7, 8, or Ace, you should stand
• If the dealer shows a 9 or 10, you should hit

Single-Deck Games with H17 Rules

If the rules specify that the dealer must hit soft 17 (h17) in a single-deck game:

• Hit against a dealer's Ace (rather than stand)
• Otherwise, follow the same strategy as single-deck S17

Why Hitting Soft 18 vs 10 is the Correct Play

Many players automatically stand on any 18, but this is a costly mistake when holding soft 18 vs a dealer's 10 upcard. Let's look at the math in a six-deck game with S17 rules. Excluding tied hands:

• If you stand, you'll win 41% of the hands and lose 59%
• If you hit, you'll win 43% of the hands and lose 57%

Notice that you will lose more hands than you'll win, regardless of what strategy you use. However, you win 2% more hands and lose 2% fewer by hitting soft 18 against a dealer's 10 upcard versus standing, for a net gain of 4%. This makes hitting the better strategy.

When to Stand on Soft 18

Standing is often the best play with soft 18 when:

• The dealer shows a weak card (2 through 8, depending on game rules)
• You're playing single-deck blackjack against a dealer's Ace (with S17 rules)
• You have a multi-card soft 18 (explained below)

The reasoning behind standing on soft 18 against mid-range dealer cards is that the dealer has a higher chance of busting, making your 18 a strong hand.

The Multi-Card Soft 18 Exception

When Doubling Down Isn't an Option

When you are dealt a soft 18 containing three or more cards, doubling down is not allowed in most casinos. For example, if you are dealt a 3 and a 4 and the dealer's upcard is a 6, then you hit and draw an Ace, giving you a soft 18. The playing rules in most land-based and online casinos prohibit you from doubling down.

With a multi-card soft 18, you should:

• Always stand against a dealer's 3 through 6 upcard
• Stand against a dealer's 2 upcard if the rules are h17
• In double-deck games with S17 rules, stand on your multi-card soft 18 rather than hit against a dealer's Ace

Other Doubling Restrictions

The rules in some casinos let players double down in blackjack only on hard hands (prohibiting doubling on soft hands). Additionally, most video blackjack games in land-based casinos don't allow doubling down on soft hands.

The bottom line is:

• If you have a multi-card soft 18, or the rules don't allow soft doubling, always stand instead of doubling when the dealer's upcard is 3 through 6 (with S17), or 2 through 6 (if H17)

Complete Soft 18 Strategy Chart

For quick reference, here are the optimal strategies for playing soft 18 in various game conditions:

Double-and Multi-Deck If Rules Specify S17

*But stand if Double-Deck and multi-card soft 18.

Double-and Multi-Deck If Rules Specify H17

Single-Deck If Rules Specify S17

Single-Deck If Rules Specify H17

Note: Ds means double down if allowed; otherwise, stand. S means Stand. H means Hit. S17 means the dealer must stand on soft 17. H17 means the dealer must hit soft 17.

Soft 18 Blackjack Quiz

To be sure you have the strategy down pat for playing a soft 18, decide how you would play the following hands against the indicated dealer’s upcard. (Assume a double- or multi-deck game with s17 unless otherwise indicated.)

Conclusion: Master Your Soft 18 Blackjack Strategy

Knowing the correct blackjack strategy for playing soft 18 in various situations can significantly improve your blackjack results. Remember that the optimal play changes based on the number of decks, the dealer's upcard, the dealer hitting or standing on soft 17, and whether your soft 18 consists of two or more cards.

By following the strategy tables above, you'll make the mathematically correct decision every time you're dealt a soft 18. While you won't win every hand, you'll maximise your winnings and minimise your losses in the long run.

For the complete basic playing strategy for any set of playing rules, consult Chapter 3 in the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide.

Originally published in December 28, 2016

Thinking about how to win on slots is the key to understanding the things you should consider when you visit a casino. My 18 do’s and don’ts slot tips are designed to guide you through the things about slots you must know about. But it's important to remember that the casino always has a house edge, so note that players can and do lose money. This article simply offers some strategy advice, but there is no guarantee of winning. 

My top slot machine strategy tips – you’ll read about below – include 12 do’s and six don’ts that may assist you in answering the big ‘how to win at slot machines?’ question lots of slot players ask.

Owners and operators of land-based and online casinos are fully aware that casino goers love to play slot machines. In this blog post, I’ve written 18 do's & don'ts slot machine tips with a focus on how to win at slot machines.

In some countries, including the United States, slot machines are the most-played casino games. In the rest, the popularity of attempting to win at slots is surging to the point slot play is rivaling table play.

As a slot player, the big question you probably want answered is: “How to win on slot machines?” It also brings up the related questions such as:

• Are there systems for beating slot machines?
• How have others beaten the machines?

I think that trying to win at slots is all a matter of chance. There are no blackjack strategy – or video poker-like strategies – that can cut into the house’s mathematical edge. The payout odds on slot games don’t change. 

There’s nothing you can do legally that will change the outcome. And some scam artists have sometimes succeeded in profiting from slots until caught, arrested and imprisoned.

How to win at slots?

There are approaches that will help you get the most out of slot games.

• In-game play slot machine tips;
• systems for playing with their strengths and flaws; and;
• slot machine cheats & slot machine scams artists. 

SUMMARY OF SLOT MACHINE TIPS: 12 DO'S

1. Higher denomination slots have higher payback percentages
2. Make sure you bet enough to be eligible for slot jackpots
3. Choose slot games that fit your goals and playing personality
4. Always play slots within your budget
5. Start small to win big, or “prime the pump”
6. Play machines at the ends of rows
7. Scout slot machines of those that are paying big
8. Look for near misses on slot games
9. Try online slots for extra variety
10. Take advantage of slot game bonuses and promotions
11. Search slot game demos to see how  games works
12. Remain aware you're playing slots for real money

It was true when three-reel games ruled slot floors, and it’s true now when the large majority of games are video slots:

• Dollar slots yield a higher payback percentage than quarter slots, which;
• Pay more than nickel slots, which;
• Pay more than penny games.

But it doesn’t mean everyone should rush to an online casino and play dollar slots. There are factors beyond payback percentage, including entertainment value and what you want from slot games.

Even in pure dollars and cents, playing higher-denomination slot games means bigger bets and more risk. So, if you’re wondering how to win at slots machines betting more doesn’t guarantee any sizable wins.

If you’re betting $3 on a three-coin dollar slot  (that pays 95 percent), your average losses will be more money than if you’re betting 40 cents on a 40-line 1-cent game that pays 86 percent.

How to win at slots playing progressive slot machines. Basically, a percentage of each wager is added to the jackpot or jackpots. And jackpots drop randomly.

On three-reel slot machines usually have a single progressive jackpot on the top payoff. You must bet maximum coins to be eligible.

On three-coin dollar slot machines, you can’t win the progressive slots jackpot if you only bet only one or two coins. Instead, landing the top jackpot combination on the payline brings a reduced payoff at a fixed amount.

On video slots, progressive jackpots usually are multi-tiered. I’ve seen anywhere from 2 to 12 progressive levels offered.

Typical is a four-tier progressive with levels labeled as follows.

On some video slots, all players are eligible for the jackpots regardless of bet size. On others, slot players must make a separate bet to be jackpot eligible.

The jackpots are the main events on progressives, and aside from those jackpots, the games usually pay less than other games.

Don’t settle for a lower paying slot game. How to win slot machines is sometimes about following the rules. Where applicable ensure you make the necessary bets to be eligible for the slot jackpots. If you can’t afford those bets, choose a non-progressive slot games.

During free spins, video slot players make no additional bets and can win anything up to the top jackpot. However, it’s also possible that players won’t win at all to win nothing on the free spins feature.

A zero-bonus balances the possibility of bigger wins than you see in pick’em bonuses.

Slot tip 3 conclusion of how to win at slots:

In summary, it’s up to you to decide what types of slot games may offer where to find the most best value and chances of winning i.e.

• in jackpot chances;
• in the player-participation opportunity of pick’em bonuses; or;
• in the hit-and-miss nature of free spins.

If you visit a land-based casino or play online casino slots with $200, you really can’t afford to play dollar slots. But if you decide to try them anyway and end up losing $100 in no time at all, be prepared to either stop or lower your spin stakes and play on penny slots with your remaining bankroll.

Slot machines don’t give players the opportunity to place multiple bets in combinations like craps or roulette. And you can’t take advantage of ever-shifting odds as card counters do in blackjack..

Slot machine odds are unchanging, the same on every spin. The most creative slot machine betting systems and theories might be fun to try, but they can’t make you a consistent slot game winner.

How to win slot machines using the prime the pump…but does it work?

Slot bettors assume that wins won’t come right away. They start with small bets and work up hoping to be betting big when the wins land. But if you ask me, how to win at slot machines? and is priming the pump the way? I say as follows:

Actually, you’re just as likely to win early as later on. And starting small will miss some winners. The payback percentage will be the same on every spin regardless of your bet size.

Chuck Flick, a slot player who tested many slot betting systems, tried priming the pump by stepping up his bets in a regular pattern. In five trials, he had four losing sessions and one winner—a normal outcome even if you’re not starting small.

How to win on slot machines by playing at the end of rows – does it work?

The theory is that slot machines at the ends of rows are visible to passers-by and casinos want those other customers to see and hear slot players winning.

In modern casinos, games of the same type in-a-row usually have the same payback percentage.

Some players like to play slot games that have paid out big figuring they’re hot slot machines. Others avoid those slot games, figuring they’re due to go cold.

In reality, all streaks are just blips on the radar to slot machines that yield a normal payback percentage over hundreds of thousands of plays.

How to win on slot machines using timing:

Slot machines are never “due” to go hot or cold, and recent paybacks do not offer any clue as to how a slot machine will perform for you.

Scouting near misses means looking for slot games with jackpot symbols on the reels or screen, but just short of a winning slots combination.

But how to win at slots using this method?

If you’re in the right frame of mind, scouting can add a little intrigue to choosing a game, but near misses aren’t really any indication. of future outcomes.

How to win slot machines using systems?

A slot machine strategy can add a little interest to games, but they can’t change outcomes or lead you to a winning machine.

SUMMARY OF SLOT TIPS: THE DON'TS

1. String theory (slot tip number 13)
2. Slug it out (slot tip number 14)
3. Magnetic force (slot tip number 15)
4. Inside job (slot tip number 16)
5. Cheat by chip (slot tip number 17)
6. Automatically bet the max (slot tip number 18)

Slots in a live casino, where cheats can interfere with the physical device, have been more vulnerable to scams than slots in online casinos.

If you’re thinking that cheating is how to win at slot machines, I think you should forget any ideas that will land you in jail.

In jurisdictions with licensed casinos, the law  takes a very dim view of cheating the slots. Cheating licensed casinos is a felony and can carry stiff prison terms.

Nevertheless, the following five slot machine tips (13-17) are scams players have tried and ones you should avoid trying to replicate.

DON’T TRY SLOT TIP 13: STRING THEORY

When all slots were three-reel games with coin slots, cheaters worked a scam in which they tied affixed a string to a coin.

1. They’d drop the coin into the slot;
2. trip the mechanism that gave them credit to play, then;
3. use the string to pull the coin back out.

One woman in Nevada was caught using a coin on a brightly colored piece of yarn, easy to spot from a distance. Others were less obvious, but those who were caught were prosecuted.

Manufacturers designed more secure coin acceptance devices to make this cheat impossible. These days, most slots accept only paper currency or tickets and no longer have slot heads.

SLOT TIP 14: SLUG IT OUT

Fake coins, or slugs, were a problem for casinos for as long as slot machines accepted coins.

Some were no more than a rounded piece of metal, with no design. Others were more elaborate, and counterfeiters in the eastern U.S. stamped slot tokens that looked much like those used in New Jersey.

As long as the metal and manufacturing costs were a lot less than the value of a real slot coin, there was incentive for cheaters.

Coin recognition software grew progressively more sophisticated to combat the problem.

DON’T TRY SLOT TIP 15: MAGNETIC FORCE

Some slot machines in the 1960s and ‘70s were vulnerable to ordinary magnets.

Cheaters could use the magnets to make the reels float freely instead of stopping on a spin. The scam artists would remove the magnet only when the reels had aligned in a winning combination.

More sophisticated were top-bottom devices, used into the 1980s.

1. The top was a metal rod that was bent on one end, and the bottom a strand of wire.
2. The wire would be inserted in the coin slot to hit a metal contact, and then;
3. The top would be jammed in the coin slot.
4. The combination completed a circuit that would activate a coin dispenser and send free coins pouring into the slot tray.

Protection had to be built into the games to shield vital parts from magnets and to make it impossible to hit contacts and create an electrical circuit.

DON’T TRY SLOT TIP 16: INSIDE JOB

This scam was pulled on so-called “Big Bertha” slots in the 1990s. Big Bertha’s are bigger and wider than other slots.

A team was arrested in Nevada after they crowded around a Big Bertha.

1. The front of the machine was opened;
2. A woman climbed inside; and;
3. The machine was mostly shut. 
4. She then rigged results.

With team members blocking views, everything looked normal to casual passers-by, but security was alert enough to catch the cheats in the act

DON’T TRY SLOT TIP 17: CHEAT BY CHIP

A software engineer for the Nevada Gaming Commission programmed chips that functioned normally in slot machines. Except those in the know could take advantage of a cheat code.

When the cheats inserted specific numbers of coins in a specific order, the machine would pay out. The engineer was arrested, of course.

DON’T TRY  SLOT TIP 18: AUTOMATICALLY BET THE MAX

For generations, slot players were told that maximizing bets produced the highest payback percentages.

That was true on most old three-reel slots, but it usually isn't on video slots or online slots.

The reasons max bets brought the highest payback percentages were incentives built into pay tables.

There usually was a disproportionate jump in the top jackpot if you bet maximum coins.
For nearly all online slots and video slots, that's not true. Pay table returns are proportionate, meaning the average payback percentage is the same regardless of whether you're betting one coin per line or the max.

Cover all the paylines online and on video slots, but bet at your comfort level and don't worry about trying to bet the max.

Conclusion how to win at slot machines – Summary of my 18 Do's & Don'ts Slot Machine Tips

To conclude with a more general tip, it is of utmost importance to thoroughly familiarize yourself with how slot machines work. You’ll learn what to expect and how to adjust your playing style to the features of a particular slot machine game.

If this article interests you, please check out our articles on roulette strategy or craps strategy.

My Nana Margaret told me that there were four basic types of roulette players. 

1.  Those players who realize that the house has the edge on every bet during a random game and are therefore negative about the whole thing. They certainly play but they also whine and moan and annoy everyone around them. Nana Margaret would call such types “miserable people.”

2.  Those roulette players who realized that roulette game was an unbeatable game in the long run but enjoyed the opportunity to test Lady Luck. They tend to be upbeat even if they are getting beat. Nana would call these folks the “lights of the party” even if Lady Luck were leading them on.

3.  Those who try to beat the game by attempting to find biased (“hot”) or unbalanced wheels and exploit such opportunities. Nana called these the “Pandora people” and they rely on the last thing that remained in Pandora’s Box (actually a big jar) of evils – hope! Nana says these types are “dogged” and rarely give up. 

4.  Those roulette players who know that in their lifetime, and at the casinos where they play, the chances of beating the modern wheels are remote but such a fact doesn’t bother them. They attempt to use advantage-play systems even in games where they have no advantage. Grandma would call these folks “nutty dreamers” and indeed they are. Nana liked those dreamers as long as they didn’t descend into a nightmare world. Nana would say to me to make her point clear, “Frankie, you can dream all you want but get your butt out there to work.”

Those #1 players, the moaners and whiners, I wish would retire to a knitting society or they could, at the very least, shut up. Players of the #2 stamp are nice people and fun to have dinner with. 

Players #3 and #4 are my focus for this column as they are the individuals who have the best chance, not necessarily to win, but to have a damn good time trying. They are giving the game their best shot which is all Nana would ask of them.

If It’s Hot It’s Hot

In the heady days before today’s almost super-perfect roulette wheels, some obsessed players would scour the casinos looking for biased wheels with – what we now call – hot numbers displayed. These numbers would be hitting at a frequency that was way beyond the inherent probabilities of the game. 

Such hot numbers contained the hoped-for magical elixir of possibly allowing the player to turn the tables on the casinos and “break the bank” thereby bringing home the casino’s gold. Note: To break a casino’s bank merely means winning all the chips at one table. It does not mean winning all the casino’s chips at all their games. But “break the bank” certainly does sound good.

Of course, to really ascertain whether a wheel had biased numbers the wheel-watcher had to analyze many thousands of spins. Yes, thousands, and some bleary-eyed pursuers of the dream would say tens of thousands of spins had to be catalogued. 

And how does a Roulette wheel actually look like?





The advantage player had to hang around the roulette pits recording what was hitting – often day after day after day. (Nana: “They looked like demented stalkers if you ask me.”) That is the kind of dedication a Buddhist monk in the Himalayas exhibits when he is trying to become one with – I am guessing – the oneness.

Playing the Layout versus Playing the Wheel

Don’t get confused here. There are two types of betting strategies at roulette. Many roulette players enjoy playing layout strategies; that is, they put their money here and there on the numbers that go in chronological order on the betting layout. You can’t beat roulette just by betting the layout; that game would be random unless you got lucky. 

The only possibility to beat roulette is if you beat the wheel itself. 

The numbers on the wheel are not in chronological order as they are on the betting layout. They are scattered and spaced out in such a way that players who just play the layout will not be able to see if groups of numbers near each other are hitting more than probability would predict. Usually biased numbers hit in small or even sometimes large groupings. But you will only know this if you study the wheel.

“You aren’t going to seduce Lady Luck for very long if you are just a layout kind of guy,” Nana cautioned. 

So to get those hot numbers we have to check out the arrangement of numbers on the wheels. There are different Roulette versions, either playing with the American or European wheel.

First let’s take a look at the American wheel, also known as the double-zero wheel. There are 38 pockets in which the ball can land. Here is the basic layout of the American wheel:

Arrangement of Numbers on the American Wheel

• There are 38 numbered pockets for the ball to land in, 1-36 and 0, 00.

• You can see that directly (or almost directly) across from each even number is an odd number. Check out 34 and you will see that it is almost directly across from 33. Then look at 36 and it is across from 35. 

• The numbers 18 and 19 are only separated by the number 33.

• Pairs of odd numbers alternate with pairs of even numbers except in the areas of the 0, which splits 2 and 28, and 00 which splits 27 and 1.

• The colors of the numbers are irrelevant to hot number play.

Something that makes our European friends happy, the best wheels are known as the French or European single-zero wheels.

Arrangement of Numbers on the French or European Wheel

• There are 37 numbered pockets for the ball to land in, 1-36 and 0.

• Some of the positions of the numbers are similar to the American wheel with an odd number being directly across from an even number such as 27 across from 28 but this does not prevail throughout the wheel.

• The colors of the numbers are irrelevant for hot number play.

Hot Numbers Have to Overcome the House Edge

Now, let’s just look at the American wheel. The probability of any one number coming up is one in 38; the odds are therefore 37 to one. The payout is 35 to one. The house edge is 5.26 percent because of the short payout of a winning wager.

On the French or European wheel there are 37 numbers with a probability of one number coming up one time in 37 spins; the odds are 36 to one. The (short) payout is the same 35 to one and the house edge is 2.70 percent – a far better bet than on the American wheel. 
Each spin of the Roulette wheels is independent, so the Roulette odds of winning don’t change based on the results of the previous spin.

Yes, the player looking for a bias must be able to overcome that house edge – not an easy thing to do. 

In any short term analysis of random numbers there will be wild streaks all over the place. Some numbers will get hot; some will be cold; some will go back and forth. That’s why you need a lot of decisions to study so you know you are dealing with a real bias as opposed to, as Nana said, “the usual madness of randomness.” (I know, I know, it was bad enough that you had to study in school, now you have to study roulette spins! Hey, life isn’t fair.)

So What is a Hot Number?

If us take 3,800 and 3,700 spins for the American and European wheels respectively, we can figure out what would be strong biases and weak biases. I have rounded the numbers on this chart (“because no one likes fractions Frankie” – Nana Margaret).



Now I would probably want to double – at least double – the total number of results to have a good feeling about such a distribution as the above chart but the chart is easy to work with so we’ll work with it.

Let’s take a look at the following numbers on the American wheel and see how often they have hit in 3,800 spins (change units into your monetary equivalent):



The above grouping shows some seriously hot numbers. They all appear in one continuous segment of the American wheel. You’ll note that the outside numbers of 5 and 17 are the weakest and those numbers get whatever your minimum bet happens to be. 

The strong “hotties” of 7 and 20 will get 90 percent of your maximum bet. So if 50 units is your highest betting level then you bet 45 units on both of these numbers.  Number 32 is your strongest number and that will get 100 percent of your maximum bet.

The pattern of bets is this:

• Any number in the excellent category gets a maximum bet. 

• Any number in the good category gets 90 percent of your maximum bet. 

• Any number in the fair category gets your minimum bet.

The caution here is that if more than 10 numbers are hot, you might have to reduce your betting levels somewhat in order not to get hammered should you lose some spins in a row. 

The fact is also this: You can bet minimum amounts on all hot numbers to extend your bankroll. There is no hard and fast betting rule. You have to keep your betting reasonable even when you have the edge. Bad streaks occur even in good situations.

You can do the exact same analysis on the French or European wheel and use the same betting method.

More than One Group of Hot Numbers

If you have more than one grouping of hot numbers then you split your betting and obviously spread to all those numbers. Here you would more than likely bet minimum amounts. But you must be sure these groupings are legitimate.

And What about Our Non-Advantage Advantage Players?  

Now what about our #4 players? Those dreamers? Obviously these players are not going to analyze, catalogue and ascertain what is really going on while they play. In fact, they are probably right about not pursuing real hot numbers – it is extremely hard to find realistic hot numbers on the modern roulette wheels. All such streaks are usually just random. (“No kidding,” says Nana.)

However, using the scoreboards at a roulette table which usually list the last 16 or 20 numbers, you pretend that those numbers that have hit more than once are hot. In those casinos that have individual scoreboards that tell you the numbers that have hit on all the wheels, you can go from wheel to wheel betting the repeating numbers.

Can you get an edge this way? No. But, as Nana Margaret says, "Playing this way can give you a sense of pursuing something real even if it is false."

One of the most fundamental concepts of playing casino games to an advantage is the Gambler’s Ruin theory. In its simplest form the Gambler’s Ruin theory deals with how much of a bankroll does and advantage player need, and at what level a players need to size their bets at. It is a necessity for any serious advantage player to master to maximize their win rate while minimizing their risk. At some point during your play, most likely during a prolonged losing streak, you’ll be tempted to over bet your advantage. Doing so can lead to ruinous results. It’s likely the remainder of this article will save you from depleting your bankroll. So let’s get started.

Playing any gambling game to a positive advantage, and specifically the game of 21, leads to what mathematicians call a random walk with an upward drift. What this means is that you will go through a series of losing streaks and a series of winning streaks as the number of hands increases, but the overall trend is a positive upward slope.

The term random walk is an analogy used by mathematicians where you equate the desired result, the EV as the number of events (hands) gets larger and larger, will be realized. The analogy is equated to a drunken individual walking out of a pub and staggering towards the bus stop. He will eventually get their but the path will be twisted one filled with all sorts of bends and slants. The path is not the most direct one.

The take away here is that gambling, even with an advantage involves risk and the player needs to take appropriate precautions to ensure that they don’t bust out. The precautions involve having enough of a bank roll to outlast any negative swings that may occur. Think of it this way. If I paid you two dollars for every heads that came up on a coin flip and you paid me one dollar for every tails that comes up it would be a good bet for you. But you should have more than 5 dollars to wager because you could very easily hit a string of tails that could wipe you out. You have to have enough money to outlast the series of tails that comes up.

The same concepts apply to other games of chance. In blackjack one common method used to determine the players Risk of Ruin is the number of big bets the player has coupled with the percent advantage the player is playing too during those big bets. The following table gives the advantage for two counting systems. The first column gives a 1.75% advantage on a big which is the approximate advantage for a simple 1 level count like the Basic Omega system or the simple Hi-Lo count system. A 2.25% advantage is the approximate advantage for multi level counting system like the Advanced Omega 2 system or the USTON APC system. High efficiency counting systems scale the betting more accurately and more importantly while using the deviations from basic strategy by using the indices you get even more of an advantage. An additional ¼ % is the approximate additional advantage that can be expected from the indices plays.
 

ADDITONAL RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

An additional risk management strategy is to half your bet after losing half your original stake, the overall chance of ruin is reduced to the original risk of ruin multiplied by the square root of the original risk of return. This should not be used as a reason to over bet.

Another consideration is the financial strength of the player. If you have a solid six figure income you can then you afford to not be over conservative with your bankroll. This also influences the overall psychological factors that come into play. As stated earlier there is a tremendous psychological component to advantage gaming. A mental toughness is required to struggle through the negative swings and see it through till the positive expectation is realized.

The Gambler’s Ruin Theory is a key concept to make sure that people do not go bankrupt from playing. It is the way that we find the proper tension between risk and return. If we are too aggressive we increase our chances of going bankrupt, when we are too conservative we leave money on the table and are not maximizing are earning potential. Every player at one time or another will endure a losing streak and want to deviate from the defined strategy in an attempt to get the money back quickly. But it’s important that we let the math do its thing and let the money come to you. Don’t force it, it will come; patience in this case is a virtue.

 

• In the late 1950s when Las Vegas and by extension casino gambling first started making an impact the only variation of blackjack that existed was the single deck game with good rules.
   
• This means dealer standing on soft 17s, doubling after splitting and 3:2 payouts on all naturals.
   
• The game was only a small fraction of a percentage point in favor of the house while just playing basic strategy developed by Ed Thorp in his book Beat the Dealer. After the Thorps analysis changes started being implemented to increase the houses advantage over the player.
   
• First, all at once; this caused a dramatic drop of in player rates. After a few months the casinos were forced to reinstate the original rules, and the player rates surpassed the original levels. The casinos then began introducing subtle rule changes over time.
   
• First the number of decks increased, and then various rules changes that gave the house an increased edge. Here, we will discuss how the number of decks and the various rule changes affect the houses edge.

When the blackjack rules applied, the biggest change that occurs from the increase in the number of decks is from 1 deck to 2 decks. The houses overall advantage increases by approximately 0.35% in this case. When the increase in decks goes beyond this the increase in the houses advantage gets lower, and eventually levels off at around 0.7% advantage over the house. The following table shows how as the number of decks used increases the house gains an additional advantage over the house.

When it comes to splitting 10s in the game of blackjack, the bottom line should be: 

• Average players should never split and should always stand on 20.
• Card counters will sometimes split in ten-rich decks.
• Smart tournament players will sometimes split when they need to bet more chips, especially if it’s the last hand.

There are two types of blackjack players who split a pair of 10s. The first is the casual player who has no idea what the right playing strategies are for blackjack. The other is the pro who knows the game inside and out. How can splitting tens be bad for the casual player and good for the pro?

WHAT IS A 10 VALUE CARD

In blackjack, a 10-value card could either be a 10, Jack, Queen, or King.  A pair of 10s, therefore, could be composed of any two ten-value cards such as:

• 10 plus 10
• Queen plus 10
• Jack plus King
• Jack plus Queen

PLAYING OPTIONS FOR PAIR OF 10S

There are only two viable playing options when you are dealt a pair of 10s:

• Stand
• Split

If a player stands with a pair of 10s, he has a 20; if he splits, he is playing two hands, each starting with a 10. 

RE-SPLITTING 10S

Some land-based and online casinos allow players to resplit up to a maximum of three or four hands; therefore, if a player were to split 10s and draw another 10 to either split hand, he would have the option to split again to create three (or four) hands, each one starting with a 10. 

When playing live blackjack against the dealer, most casual players split 10s when he has a weak upcard like a 5 or 6 (although I have seen many players during my career split 10s no matter what the dealer shows). Their logic for splitting on the dealer’s 5 or 6 goes something like this: “The dealer has a weak card and I’ve got a good chance to make two good hands starting with a 10 so why not split and double my winnings.” Oh, really.

Let’s look at your expected value, or the average amount you would win per hand when you stand on your 10s compared to what you win when you split against the dealer’s upcard of 5. (Note: The following analysis is based on a typical six-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17.)

• When you stand on your pair of 10s, you will win 83% of the time and lose 17% of the time. That’s not too surprising because it’s tough for the dealer to beat a strong hand of 20.
• If you split the 10s one time, you stand to win 63% and lose 37% on each split hand. That’s a significant decrease in the number of hands won simply because if you split, you will often end up with less than 20 on both hands. 

This means that for an original wager of, say, $10, after 100 hands this is what you would net on average:

• Standing will get you a $660 profit

You will win $10 x 100 hands x .83 = $830
You will lose $10 x 100 hands x .17 = $170
Your net profit is $830 – $170 = $660

• Splitting the 10s will net you $520

BOTTOM LINE

The above analysis shows that when you stand on a pair of 10s vs. splitting them against a dealer 5 upcard, you figure to win $140 more when you stand vs. when you split. This is a key point in solid blackjack strategy.

$660 profit when standing – $520 profit when splitting = $140